JUNE MLB ⚾

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JUNE: [157-117 +145.95u]
LAST: [8-8 -3.66u]

6/18 WED
  • 4/6.92 MIA +177
  • 4/4.00 MIA +1½ +100
  • 4/5.76 COL +144
  • 4/2.90 COL +1½ -138
  • 5/4.35 WAS u9½ -115
  • 6/9.60 SD +160
  • 5/4.55 LAD u9½ -115
  • 4/3.48 BOS -115
  • 5/7.75 BOS -1½ +155
  • 6/6.30 SEA u6½ +105
  • 5/2.37 NYY -211
  • 4/3.64 NYY -1½ -110
  • 6/4.85 TAM -124
  • 5/7.00 KAN -1½ +140
  • 5/4.17 SAC u9½ -120
  • 7/2.44 DET -287
  • 5/5.00 MIN +100
  • 5/4.55 CIN u9 -110
  • 5/8.25 CHW +165
  • 4/4.00 CHW +1½ +100
  • 5/4.76 STL o8½ -105
  • 5/6.05 CLE +121
  • 4/2.33 CLE +1½ -172
  • 5/4.29 SF u8 -117
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randoms...
  • STREAKS: LAD 4, NYM -4, (NYY, MIN) -5, CHW -6, WAS -10
  • ROAD TEAMS 56-34 62.2% +10.2% ROI ON RL LAST 7 DAYS
  • UNDERS 208-174 54.5% +4.0% ROI LAST 30 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • BURKE(CHW) 6-2 +82.8% ROI @HOME w/ 5.197
    • SKUBAL(DET) 12-4 +21.3% @HOME w/ 2.338
    • SALE(ATL) 8-3 +10.1% @HOME w/ 3.957
    • HEANEY(PIT) 4-12 -50.6% AWAY w/ 4.165
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • VALDEZ(HOU) 7-1 +50.8% w/2.50 / 1.02 / 2.870
    • GRAY(STL) 6-2 +31.5% w/4.03 / 1.32 / 3.045
    • SKUBAL(DET) 7-1 +27% w/1.78 / 0.67 / 2.338
    • TAILON(CHC) 6-2 +23.1% w/3.12 / 0.88 / 3.948
    • PARKER(WAS) 2-6 -37.5% w/7.30 / 1.57 / 5.040
    • HEANEY(PIT) 2-6 -46.3% w/4.40 / 1.30 / 4.165
    • LODOLO(CIN) 2-6 -52.4% w/5.02 / 1.35 / 3.911
  • Note: All xFIP #'s are for full 2025 season to date
  • ROCKIES FACTOR
    • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 30-9 +8.5% ROI
    • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 23-16 +7% ROI
    • COL AWAY TOTALS: 14-23-2 37.8% OR +18.6% ROI ON UNDERS

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JUNE: [169-122 +172.56u]
LAST: [12-7-5 +26.61u]

6/19 THU
  • 6/4.20 WAS -143
  • 4/5.72 WAS -1½ +143
  • 4/3.25 ATL -123
  • 4/6.76 ATL -1½ +169
  • 5/4.76 ATL u8½ -105
  • 5/4.35 LAD -1½ -115
  • 3/7.08 LAA +236
  • 4/5.00 LAA +1½ +125
  • 6/4.35 TAM -138
  • 5/4.35 SAC u10½ -115
  • 5/5.20 CIN u9 +104
  • 7/2.28 G1-DET -307
  • 6/4.50 TOR -133
  • 6/3.54 SF -169
  • 5/3.62 G2-PIT -138
  • 5/3.46 G1-STL -140
GUEST_7c844668-084e-419a-9b96-080eef43afdc


randoms...
  • STREAKS: LAD 5, (CIN, COL) 4, SF -4, NYM -5, (NYY, CHW, MIN) -6, WAS -11
  • ROAD TEAMS 57-30 65.5% +15.5% ROI ON RL LAST 7 DAYS
  • UNDERS 210-172 55% +5.0% ROI LAST 30 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • PADDACK(MIN) 3-8 -42.9% AWAY w/ 4.574
    • MORTON(BAL) 3-8 -51.8% AWAY w/ 4.136
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • GORDON(HOU) 5-1 +66.9% w/4.70 / 1.34 / 3.298
    • RASMUSSEN(TAM) 6-2 +31.6% w/2.49 / 0.92 / 3.412
    • MORTON(BAL) 4-1 +40% w/3.38 / 1.42 / 4.136
    • TAILON(CHC) 6-2 +23.1% w/3.12 / 0.88 / 3.948
    • SANCHEZ(PHI) 6-2 +19.7% w/2.79 / 1.18 / 3.137
    • DOLLANDER(COL) 1-5 -59% w/6.66 / 1.56 / 4.734
    • STRIDER(ATL) 1-4 -74.4% w/4.50 / 1.15 / 3.955
  • Note: All xFIP #'s for full 2025 season to date
  • ROCKIE FACTOR
    • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 30-10 +7.0% ROI
    • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 23-17 +5.0% ROI
    • COL AWAY TOTALS: 14-24-2 36.8% OR +20.4% ROI ON UNDERS
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°🥂⋆.ೃ🍾࿔*:･
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6/20 FRI
  • 4/2.92 ATL -137
  • 4/4.80 ATL -1½ +120
  • 6/2.81 PHI -213
  • 4/4.76 CIN +119
  • 4/2.35 CIN +1½ -170
  • 6/3.43 ARI -175
  • 5/5.00 ARI o12 +100
  • 6/10.5 WAS +175
  • 5/5.00 WAS o8½ +100
  • 5/4.55 TOR u9 -110
  • 5/2.86 HOU -175
  • 4/3.81 HOU -1½ -105
  • 5/4.42 CLE -113
  • 4/5.40 CLE -1½ +135
  • 5/5.95 SEA +119
  • 5/2.98 SEA +1½ -168
  • 5/4.55 CHC u9½ -110
  • 4/2.25 TEX -178
  • 4/3.81 TEX -1½ -105
  • 5/4.50 TEX o7½ -111
  • 6/4.17 MIN -144
  • 5/4.70 SD u7½ -106
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randoms...
  • STREAKS: NYM -6, CHW -8
  • ROAD TEAMS 57-30 65.5% +15.5% ROI ON RL LAST 7 DAYS
  • UNDERS 210-172 55% +5.0% ROI LAST 30 DAYS
    • BOYD(CHC) 11-2 +43.2% @HOME w/3.979
    • WHEELER(PHI) 12-4 +11.3% @HOME w/2.550
    • MARTIN(CHW) 1-10 -76% AWAY w/4.241
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Last edited:
All my MLB action by day-of-week
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MLB MODEL BY DAY-OF-WEEK
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ACTION PER TEAM
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RLs appear treacherous, but I'm sticking with them...
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Finally got my head above water.
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6/21 SAT

  • 5/2.76 STL -181
  • 6/5.71 STL u9 -105
  • 4/2.78 ATL -144
  • 4/4.60 ATL -1½ +115
  • 5/4.39 PHI u10 -114
  • 6/3.11 ARI -193
  • 5/4.35 ARI o12 -115
  • 5/4.35 WAS o9 -115
  • 4/5.80 BAL +145
  • 4/2.96 BAL +1½ -135
  • 5/5.25 BAL o9½ +105
  • 5/5.25 CHW o8½ +105
  • 5/5.00 LAA +100
  • 5/4.55 LAA u8½ -110
  • 4/4.08 SAC +102
  • 4/2.61 SAC +1½ -153
  • 5/5.00 CLE o9½ +100
  • 5/4.35 MIN u9½ -115
  • 4/6.00 SEA +150
  • 4/3.20 SEA +1½ -125
  • 5/2.85 PIT -103
  • 5/3.23 KAN +1½ -155
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randoms...
  • STREAKS: (STL, KAN) 4, NYM -7
  • ROAD TEAMS ML 48-47 51.7% +11.0% ROI L7 DAYS
  • ROAD TEAMS RL 64-31 67.4% +21.1% ROI L7 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • HANCOCK(SEA) 6-1 +82.4% AWAY w/4.309
    • GRAY(STL) 13-5 +25.4% AWAY w/2.794
    • ROCKER(TEX) 1-5 -63.6% AWAY
    • KELLER(PIT) 5-12 -45.2% AWAY w/4.147
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • GRAY(STL) 6-1 +50.3% w/3.57 / 1.17 / 2.794
    • HOLMES(ATL) 2-6 -60.4% w/3.77 / 1.15 / 3.592
    • KELLER(PIT) 1-7 -76.9% w/3.83 / 1.16 / 4.147
  • Note: All xFIP #'s for full 2025 season to date
  • ROCKIES FACTOR
    • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 28-7 +19.7% ROI
    • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 24-11 +12.9% ROI

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JUNE: [197-156 +135.21u]
LAST: [8-14 -32.8u]

6/22 SUN
  • 5/6.40 ATL -1½ +128
  • 5/4.76 MIA u8½ -105
  • 5/4.55 STL u9½ -110
  • 5/4.00 ARI o12½ -125
  • 4/10.32 WAS +258
  • 5/4.35 PHI u9½ -115
  • 4/6.80 BAL +170
  • 5/4.35 BAL +1½ -115
  • 5/4.76 NYY u9½ -105
  • 5/4.35 TAM u9 -115
  • 7/3.45 TOR -204
  • 5/4.35 TOR u9 -115
  • 5/5.00 LAA u9 +100
  • 5/5.00 PIT u9 +100
  • 5/6.15 MIL +123
  • 5/4.76 MIL o9½ -105
  • 5/5.00 CHC u11½ +100
  • 4/5.68 BOS +142
  • 5/4.76 SF u7½ -105
  • 6/5.45 SD u8½ -110
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randoms...
  • STREAKS: STL 5
  • ROAD TEAMS ML 50-45 52.6% +15.3% ROI L7 DAYS
  • ROAD TEAMS RL 61-34 64.2% +14.8% ROI L7 DAYS
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • FALTER(PIT) 6-2 +80.7% w/2.11 / 1.06 / 4.777
    • BASSITT(TOR) 7-1 +58.2% w/4.44 / 1.39 / 4.426
    • GIOLITO(BOS) 6-2 +56.8% w/4.54 / 1.46 / 3.929
    • LITTELL(TAM) 6-2 +47.8% w/3.31 / 1.12 / 4.048
    • MIKOLAS(STL) 6-2 +45.8% w/4.15 / 1.27 / 4.155
    • ABBOTT(CIN) 2-6 -60.4% w/3.77 / 1.15 / 3.592
    • KELLER(PIT) 1-7 -76.9% w/3.83 / 1.16 / 4.147
  • Note: All xFIP #'s for full 2025 season to date
  • ROCKIES FACTOR
    • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 29-7 +20.5% ROI
    • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 25-11 +14.5% ROI
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JUNE: [205-168 +115.34u]
LAST: [8-12 -19.87u]

6/23 MON
  • 5/3.97 ATL -126
  • 4/5.32 ATL -1½ +133
  • 5/5.00 NYM u8½ +100
  • 5/4.76 CHC -105
  • 5/4.55 STL u9 -110
  • 4/5.92 WAS +148
  • 4/2.80 WAS +1½ -143
  • 5/2.94 TEX +1½ -170
  • 5/3.33 LAA +1½ -150
  • 6/6.60 CIN +110
  • 5/4.55 NYY o10 -110
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randoms...
  • STREAKS: MIL 4
  • ROAD TEAMS ML 51-44 53.7% +14.5% ROI L7 DAYS
  • ROAD TEAMS RL 88-52 62.9% +11.0% ROI L10 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • SMITH(CHW) 1-6 -66.9% @HOME w/4.316
    • CORBIN(TEX) 4-11 -45.2% AWAY w/3.665
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • SCHWELLENBACH(ATL) 6-2 +19.4% w/2.93 / 0.96 / 3.314
    • PARKER(WAS) 2-6 -37.5% w/6.82 / 1.52 / 4.178
    • OBER(MIN) 2-5 -45.4% w/5.34 / 1.47 / 3.574
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Last edited:
JUNE: [211-173 +118.96u]
LAST: [6-5 +3.62u]

6/24 TUE
  • 4/2.99 ATL -139
  • 4/4.60 ATL -1½ +115
  • 3/5.40 PIT +180
  • 4/3.48 PIT +1½ -115
  • 5/2.19 LAD -228
  • 5/4.76 LAD o11½ -105
  • 5/7.35 WAS +147
  • 5/3.62 WAS +1½ -138
  • 5/4.76 BAL u10 -105
  • 5/5.25 TOR o9 +105
  • 5/1.81 DET -276
  • 5/3.91 DET -1½ -128
  • 5/4.17 DET u7½ -120
  • 5/2.68 BOS -186
  • 4/3.64 BOS -1½ -110
  • 5/3.23 NYY -155
  • 4/4.20 NYY -1½ +105
  • 5/4.55 CIN u9½ -110
  • 5/4.35 HOU u7½ -115
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randoms...
  • STREAKS: MIN -4
  • ROAD TEAMS ML 52-45 53.6% +13.4% ROI L7 DAYS
  • ROAD TEAMS RL 85-49 63.1% +12.9% ROI L10 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • VALDEZ(HOU) 13-3 +29.6% @HOME w/2.697
    • SKUBAL(DET) 13-4 +21.7% @HOME w/2.662
    • PADDACK(MIN) 1-5 -67% @HOME w/4.594
    • HEANEY(PIT) 4-13 -53.5% AWAY w/4.155
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • VALDEZ(HOU) 8-0 +70.9% w/2.13 / 1.02 / 2.697
    • MORTON(BAL) 5-1 +53.3% w/3.00 / 1.33 / 3.893
    • SKUBAL(DET) 7-1 +24% w/1.95 / 0.76 / 2.662
    • SUAREZ(PHI) 6-2 +23.8% w/1.16 / 0.96 / 3.931
    • HEANEY(PIT) 2-6 -46.3% w/4.64 / 1.27 / 4.155
    • SEVERINO(SAC) 1-7 -70.5% w/5.28 / 1.48 / 4.031
  • Note: All xFIP #'s for full 2025 season to date
  • ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
    • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 29-8 +17.7% ROI
    • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 25-12 +11.9% ROI
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mrpickem said:
JUNE: [211-173 +118.96u]
LAST: [6-5 +3.62u]

6/24 TUE
  • 4/2.99 ATL -139
  • 4/4.60 ATL -1½ +115
  • 3/5.40 PIT +180
  • 4/3.48 PIT +1½ -115
  • 5/2.19 LAD -228
  • 5/4.76 LAD o11½ -105
  • 5/7.35 WAS +147
  • 5/3.62 WAS +1½ -138
  • 5/4.76 BAL u10 -105
  • 5/5.25 TOR o9 +105
  • 5/1.81 DET -276
  • 5/3.91 DET -1½ -128
  • 5/4.17 DET u7½ -120
  • 5/2.68 BOS -186
  • 4/3.64 BOS -1½ -110
  • 5/3.23 NYY -155
  • 4/4.20 NYY -1½ +105
  • 5/4.55 CIN u9½ -110
  • 5/4.35 HOU u7½ -115
View attachment 98794

randoms...
  • STREAKS: MIN -4
  • ROAD TEAMS ML 52-45 53.6% +13.4% ROI L7 DAYS
  • ROAD TEAMS RL 85-49 63.1% +12.9% ROI L10 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • VALDEZ(HOU) 13-3 +29.6% @HOME w/2.697
    • SKUBAL(DET) 13-4 +21.7% @HOME w/2.662
    • PADDACK(MIN) 1-5 -67% @HOME w/4.594
    • HEANEY(PIT) 4-13 -53.5% AWAY w/4.155
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • VALDEZ(HOU) 8-0 +70.9% w/2.13 / 1.02 / 2.697
    • MORTON(BAL) 5-1 +53.3% w/3.00 / 1.33 / 3.893
    • SKUBAL(DET) 7-1 +24% w/1.95 / 0.76 / 2.662
    • SUAREZ(PHI) 6-2 +23.8% w/1.16 / 0.96 / 3.931
    • HEANEY(PIT) 2-6 -46.3% w/4.64 / 1.27 / 4.155
    • SEVERINO(SAC) 1-7 -70.5% w/5.28 / 1.48 / 4.031
  • Note: All xFIP #'s for full 2025 season to date
  • ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
    • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 29-8 +17.7% ROI
    • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 25-12 +11.9% ROI
01967db5-4651-b0b1-5bdf-8ee90fdc39d2.jpg.ce6b0c7ed7faca5db65863018567d757.jpg

View attachment 98792
View attachment 98793
Click to expand...
Any Model Plays today.
 
JUNE: [221-182 +116.99u]
LAST: [10-9 -1.97u]

6/25 WED
  • 6/6.00 PIT +100
  • 5/5.00 MIL u6½ +100
  • 7/6.67 SD u8 -105
  • 6/4.15 NYM -144
  • 5/6.25 CHC -1½ +125
  • 5/1.69 LAD -296
  • 5/2.44 LAD -1½ -205
  • 7/3.33 SF -210
  • 5/4.55 LAA u9 -110
  • 6/4.32 TEX -139
  • 4/4.40 TEX -1½ +110
  • 5/5.00 DET u8½ +100
  • 4/3.27 TAM -122
  • 4/5.40 TAM -1½ +135
  • 6/4.91 MIN -122
  • 5/6.00 ARI -1½ +120
  • 6/5.22 CHW u9 -115
  • 4/2.02 NYY -198
  • 4/3.08 NYY -1½ -130
  • 6/4.03 PHI -149
  • 5/6.00 PHI -1½ +120
  • 7/6.03 HOU u7½ -116
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randoms...
  • STREAKS: BOS -4, MIN -5
  • ROAD TEAMS ML 53-44 54.6% +13.2% ROI L7 DAYS
  • ROAD TEAMS RL 84-50 62.7% +11.3% ROI L10 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • SKENES(PIT) 10-7 +18.5% AWAY w/2.649
    • GORDON(HOU) 3-1 +49.9% @HOME w/3.573
    • FITTS(BOS) 0-5 -100% AWAY (4-0-1 UNDER)
    • WILLIAMS(CLE) 4-12 -57% @HOME w/4.120
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • RASMUSSEN(TAM) 6-2 +31.6% w/2.23 / 0.90 / 3.499 (7-1 UNDER)
    • WHEELER(PHI) 6-1 +31.6% w/1.71 / 0.88 / 3.104
    • DEGROM(TEX) 6-2 +21.3% w/1.97 / 0.85 / 3.252
    • SUAREZ(PHI) 6-2 +23.8% w/1.16 / 0.96 / 3.931
    • Dollander(COL) 1-6 -64.9% w/5.97 / 1.45 / 4.656
  • Note: All xFIP #'s for full 2025 season to date
  • ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
    • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 30-8 +18.5% ROI
    • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 26-12 +13.4% ROI
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If only every day could be Wednesday...

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JUNE: [236-188 +151.17u]
LAST: [16-6 +34.18u]

6/26 THU
  • 5/1.89 LAD -265
  • 5/2.70 LAD -1½ -185
  • 4/6.16 MIA +154
  • 5/3.57 MIA +1½ -140
  • 5/4.35 SF u8 -115
  • 5/4.35 DET u9 -115
  • 4/3.33 TAM -120
  • 4/5.00 TAM -1½ +125
  • 5/6.50 PHI +130
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randoms...
  • STREAKS: KAN -4, BOS -5
  • ROAD TEAMS ML 71-63 53% +10.6% ROI L10 DAYS
  • ROAD TEAMS RL 117-70 62.6% +10.2% ROI L14 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • IMANGA(CHC) 9-2 +57.3% AWAY w/3.562
    • HANCOCK(SEA) 6-2 +59.6% AWAY w/4.364
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • BAZ(TAM) 7-1 +73.5 w/4.67 / 1.33 / 4.391
    • SANCHEZ(PHI) 6-2 +21.0% w/2.86 / 1.15 / 3.196
    • BROWN(HOU) 6-2 +24.8% w/2.06 / 0.96 / 3.359
    • BIBEE(CLE) 2-6 -52.7% w/3.55 / 1.17 / 4.103
  • Note: ALL AVG/xFIP #'s ARE LAST 365 DAYS
  • ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
    • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 31-8 +19% ROI
    • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 27-12 +14.6% ROI

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Last edited:
resizer


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6/27 FRI
  • 4/2.68 NYM -149
  • 4/4.40 NYM -1½ +110
  • 5/5.00 PIT u8½ +100
  • 4/3.10 SD -129
  • 4/5.00 SD -1½ +125
  • 5/6.08 PHI +122
  • 4/2.35 PHI +1½ -170
  • 5/5.10 PHI o9½ +102
  • 6/3.68 ARI -163
  • 4/3.17 TAM -126
  • 4/5.32 TAM -1½ +133
  • 5/4.55 BAL u9 -110
  • 5/4.92 NYY -1½ -102
  • 6/6.18 TEX +103
  • 4/3.29 STL -122
  • 4/5.72 STL -1½ +143
  • 4/2.52 SF -159
  • 4/3.85 SF -1½ -104
  • 5/4.76 SF o8½ -105
  • 4/2.68 LAD -149
  • 4/4.20 LAD -1½ +105
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randoms...
  • STREAKS: (HOU, LAD, MIA) 4, (KAN, BOS) -5
  • ROAD TEAMS ML 72-64 52.9% +10.0% ROI L10 DAYS
  • ROAD TEAMS RL 118-70 62.8% +9.8% ROI L14 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • BELLO(BOS) 12-4 +39% @HOME w/3.846
    • KELLER(PIT) 5-13 -48.2% AWAY w/4.147
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • GRAY(STL) 6-1 +49.9 w/3.99 / 1.33 / 2.810
    • WARREN(NYY) 7-2 +23.3% w/4.05 / 1.20 / 3.111
    • BELLO(BOS) 2-6 -45% w/3.92 / 1.44 / 3.846
    • ELDER(ATL) 1-5 -78.9% w/4.50 / 1.29 / 3.659
    • CAMERON(KAN) 1-6 -71.1% w/3.55 / 1.17 / 4.103
    • KELLER(PIT) 1-7 -76.9% w/3.55 / 1.17 / 4.103
  • Note: ALL AVG/xFIP #'s ARE LAST 365 DAYS
  • ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
    • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 31-10 +7.7% ROI
    • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 23-18 +3.1% ROI
    • COL ROAD UNDERS 25-14-2 64.1% +22.1% ROI
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JUNE: [253-202 +149.68u]
LAST: [9-12 -18.49u]

6/28 SAT

  • 5/6.00 NYM -1½ +120
  • 4/5.28 MIA +132
  • 4/2.58 MIA +1½ -155
  • 7/3.14 MIL -223
  • 4/5.46 PHI +137
  • 4/2.58 PHI +1½ -155
  • 5/4.76 BAL u10 -105
  • 5/7.25 KAN +145
  • 5/4.55 CHW u8 -110
  • 4/4.56 WAS +114
  • 4/2.29 WAS +1½ -175
  • 5/5.15 LAA u9 +103

randoms...
  • STREAKS: (HOU, LAD, MIA) 5, COL -4, (KAN, BOS) -6
  • ROAD TEAMS ML 74-62 53.4% +11.9% ROI L10 DAYS
  • ROAD TEAMS RL 118-70 62.8% +10.6% ROI L14 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • RAY(SF) 8-2 +63.4% AWAY w/4.093
    • REA(CHC) 8-2 +62.1% AWAY w/4.075
    • SENZATELA(COL) 2-6 -36.5% AWAY w/4.944
    • BASSITT(TOR) 3-9 -48.8% AWAY w/4.322
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • FALTER(PIT) 6-2 +75.7 w/2.79 / 1.24 / 4.724
    • GIOLITO(BOS) 6-2 +56.8% w/3.43 / 1.26 / 4.023
    • ABBOTT(CIN) 6-2 +56.8% w/1.58 / 0.86 / 4.953
    • BASSITT(TOR) 6-2 +56.8% w/3.86 / 1.29 / 4.322
    • SCHWELLENBACH(ATL) 6-2 +21.8% w/3.04 / 0.91 / 3.210
    • LUGO(KAN) 1-5 -65.3% w/3.06 / 0.96 / 3.743
    • SEARS(SAC) 2-7 -51.3% w/7.90 / 1.66 / 4.425
    • OBER(MIN) 1-6 -68.3% w/6.62 / 1.32 / 3.663
  • Note: ALL AVG/xFIP #'s ARE LAST 365 DAYS
  • ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
    • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 32-10 +8.5% ROI
    • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 24-18 +4.8% ROI
    • COL ROAD UNDERS 25-15-2 64.1% +19% ROI
Rachel_Pizzolato_walks_the_runway_for_Miami_Swim_Week_in_Miami_Beach_06-01-20250011.jpg.b74a72aff28e50543d6f09f2af6e6e2d.jpg
 
Fish on fire, winners of 5 straight, and today is their 6th straight day on top of the 15-day hot list.
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Note...I did adjust percent on model leans down from 14% down to 10.5%. That means the game will be a model lean anytime the model win percent is 10.5% more than the actual line implied win%. The actual plays are still at 21%, so the leans would be 10.5-21%. I typically have adjusted these percentages as the season moves along(biggest adjustments normally in JUL), as lines get tighter and at least theoretically the model also gets sharper. However, even though my model has changed yearly, and I do believe it's at its best in current form...historically(4 years) the model performance has fallen off in August and after.
 
DAMN, I started yesterday 5-1 before losing all 6 night plays. 😡😠😖

JUNE: [258-209 +141.48u]
LAST: [5-7 -8.20u]

6/29 SUN
  • 5/6.30 PHI +126
  • 6/5.45 ATL u8½ -110
  • 5/3.29 NYM -152
  • 4/4.20 NYM -1½ +105
  • 5/2.02 MIL -248
  • 4/3.33 MIL -1½ -120
  • 5/4.59 MIL u8½ -109
  • 4/6.84 MIA +171
  • 6/5.00 MIA +1½ -120
  • 4/6.64 SAC +166
  • 4/3.33 SAC +1½ -120
  • 6/5.00 TOR -120
  • 5/4.81 TAM -104
  • 6/2.21 DET -272
  • 5/5.40 TEX +108
  • 6/5.45 TEX u8½ -110
  • 5/5.35 CLE +107
  • 5/3.16 CHC +1½ -158
  • 5/4.50 HOU u8 -111
  • 4/2.72 SF -147
  • 4/4.40 SF +1½ +110
  • 5/4.55 CHW u8½ -110
  • 6/7.20 WAS +120
Blank+NK+Elite+JSY+-+Team+Patc.png

randoms...
  • STREAKS: MIA 6, MIL 4, COL -5
  • ROAD TEAMS ML 97-91 51.6% +8.2% ROI L14 DAYS
  • ROAD TEAMS RL 112-76 59.6% +7.0% ROI L14 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • VALDEZ(HOU) 14-3 +31.7% @HOME w/2.697
    • MONTAS(NYM) 7-2 +57.9% AWAY w/3.986
    • SKUBAL(DET) 13-4 +17.5% @HOME w/2.645
    • LIBERATORE(STL) 2-6 -46.5% AWAY w/4.141
    • CANNON(CHW) 3-8 -38.2% @HOME w/4.967
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • VALDEZ(HOU) 8-0 +69.8 w/2.25 / 1.06 / 2.697
    • SKUBAL(DET) 7-1 +23.7% w/2.05 / 0.83 / 2.645
    • LAUER(TOR) 4-1 +59.7% w/3.78 / 1.26 / 4.088
    • BUEHLER(BOS) 2-5 -42.8% w/8.59 / 1.98 / 4.667
    • KOLEK(SD) 2-6 -49% w/5.45 / 1.49 / 4.316
    • PADDACK(MIN) 2-6 -49.2% w/4.21 / 1.18 / 4.672
    • LEITER(TEX) 2-6 -56.2% w/4.25 / 1.32 / 4.881
    • SEVERINO(SAC) 1-8 -73.8% w/5.28 / 1.48 / 4.031
  • Note: ALL AVG/xFIP #'s ARE LAST 365 DAYS
  • ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
    • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 33-10 +9.1% ROI
    • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 25-18 +6.5% ROI
    • COL ROAD UNDERS 26-15-2 63.4% +20.7% ROI
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RIP DP
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JUNE: [268-222 +133.12u]
LAST: [10-13 -8.36u]

6/30 MON
  • 7/3.34 PHI -210
  • 5/3.47 SF -144
  • 5/3.52 NYY -142
  • 5/4.55 TOR u8½ -110
  • 5/5.25 TAM u8 +105
  • 7/10.01 KAN +143
  • 4/2.67 KAN +1½ -150
  • 5/4.35 SEA u7½ -115
  • 5/2.87 BOS -174
Richland-Royals2-large.png

randoms...
  • STREAKS: MIA 7, (ARI, CLE) 4, COL -5
  • ROAD TEAMS ML 99-89 52.2% +9.4% ROI L14 DAYS
  • ROAD TEAMS RL 110-78 58.5% +6.2% ROI L14 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • WHEELER(PHI) 12-3 +19.7% @HOME w/3.030
    • HEANY(PIT) 11-4 +44.9% @HOME w/4.093
    • FEDDE(STL) 5-12 -38.5% AWAY w/4.584
    • KIRBY(SEA) 2-8 -66.8% @HOME w/3.743
    • CROCHET(BOS) 2-12 -78.5% @HOME w/2.209
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • RASMUSSEN(TAM) 7-1 +53.6% w/1.62 / 0.88 / 3.535
    • FEDDE(STL) 2-6 -44.9% w/4.39 / 1.42 / 4.584
    • HEANY(PIT) 2-6 -46.3% w/4.91 / 1.28 / 4.093
  • Note: ALL AVG/xFIP #'s ARE LAST 365 DAYS
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