JUNE MLB ⚾

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
1748779028417.webp


MAY : [288-266 +32.06u]
LAST: [9-9 -4.82u]

6/1 SUN
  • 6/9.42 MIL +157
  • 4/2.94 MIL +1½ -136
  • 4/3.48 PHI u8½ -115
  • 7/1.92 NYM -364
  • 4/2.35 NYM -1½ -170
  • 7/5.83 MIA u8 -120
  • 6/8.78 CIN +146
  • 6/5.71 CHC u7½ -105
  • 5/6.70 PIT +134
  • 5/4.45 SD u8½ -112
  • 6/9.00 CHW +150
  • 5/5.00 BAL u9 +100
  • 4/3.48 TOR u8½ -115
  • 6/9.18 LAA +153
  • 4/3.64 CLE u8½ -110
  • 5/3.70 KAN -135
  • 7/6.09 KAN u8½ -115
  • 6/4.80 SEA -125
  • 7/6.36 TEX u7½ -110
  • 6/4.80 BOS -125
  • 6/5.61 ATL u8 -107
  • 5/4.59 LAD u9 -109
1748779252646.png

randoms...
  • STREAKS: MIL 6, [TOR, WAS] 4, ARI -4, SAC -5, COL -7
  • FEDDE(STL) 5-13 -38.5% L365 DAYS AWAY
  • WILLIAMS(CLE) 3-11 -61.4% L365 DAYS @HOME
  • GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
    • MONTERO(DET) 4-1 +71% ROI w/3.38 / 1.31 / 4.797 xFIP 💀
    • HOLMES(NYM) 8-3 +17.6% ROI w/2.98 / 1.24 / 3.622
    • SUAREZ(PHI) 4-1 +28.8% w/2.97 / 1.19 / 3.430
    • YAMAMOTO(LAD) 8-3 +12.4% ROI w/1.97 / 0.91 / 2.651
    • MORTON(BAL) 1-6 -71.7% w/8.81 / 1.86 / 4.588
    • FEDDE(STL) 3-8 -46.5% w/3.90 / 1.30 / 4.909
    • MARTINEZ(CIN) 3-8 -52.3% w/3.48 / 1.11 / 4.096
  • 2025 SEASON
    • @HOME 487-379 +1.2% ROI
    • CHALK @HOME 333-211 +0.3%
    • TOTALS IN ALL 389-444 or +1.9% ROI ON UNDERS
post-42054-0-1446080680-39657.jpg
 
LAST: [12-10 +0.88u]

6/2 MON
  • 4/4.00 MIA u8 +100
  • 6/5.36 CIN -112
  • 4/7.04 CIN -1½ +176
  • 4/3.33 MIL o9 -120
  • 6/3.64 SF -164
  • 4/4.00 NYM o9 +100
  • 4/4.00 BOS u9½ +100
  • 4/4.40 CHW +1½ +110
  • 4/3.42 CHW u8½ -117

1748860177097.webp

randoms...
  • STREAKS: MIL 7, TOR 5, PHI -4, SAC -6, COL -8
  • GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
  • ANDERSON(LAA) 8-3 +59.4% ROI w/3.39 / 1.21 / 5.182
  • CANNON(CHW) 1-8 -66.9% w/4.79 / 1.49 / 4.690
  • 2025 SEASON
    • @HOME 497-384 +1.4% ROI
    • CHALK @HOME 343-214 +0.8%
    • TOTALS IN ALL 394-454 or +2.4% ROI ON UNDERS

1748860439368.png​
​
1748860139624.jpeg

1748860251428.png
1748860282832.png

1748860334086.png
17.jpg.05d794ae7e0c63bfa77811a1d6b39a52.jpg
 
Surprised to see you on the over in milw. I always been a fan of singer and I think Civale has a good chance of holding reds down for 5+ innings. Maybe the pens give if up? Not like I expect either pitcher to be totally dominant, I think they both prob pitch close to 6 innings and give up 2-3 runs. That doesn’t leave a ton to get off the pen to get it over. My only play is on Civale over 15.5 outs so hopefully he can get me 16 outs than all hell breaks out for all I care!

I’m super scared of the under in Miami, for some reason games find there way over quite a bit in that park. Meyer has been a total puzzle for me, his stuff is really good imo but he has had some god awful performances including last game where baffling to me he couldn’t manage 1 strike out, and yes I bet his over k’s in that one! Lol. The dude punched out 14 earlier this year in a game vs Cincy so he more than capable, just incredibly inconsistent. I suppose if you ever gonna pitch a gem it should be vs this garbage Rox team! Think I’d go 1st 5 if playinv an under here. The fish pen scares me more than Meyers!

We are seeing things way different on This card, I think tigers get to cannon so for chisox to stay in this game I think they need to get to Flaherty., that is def possible, Flaherty damn near impossible for me to cap! I actually hate taking the +1.5 if I think the game going over as you do. Cannon under 17.5 outs is my only play so even tho we don’t really agree on these there a world we could both win! Gl buddy
 
JUNE: [12-19 -39.12u]
LAST: [0-9 -40.00u]

6/3 TUE
  • 6/3.54 MIA -169
  • 6/8.34 WAS +139
  • 4/4.20 WAS u9 +105
  • 5/4.76 CIN u8 -105
  • 5/6.65 ARI +133
  • 4/3.48 ATL u9 -115
  • 4/3.48 SD o7½ -115
  • 6/7.68 NYM +128
  • 4/3.48 NYM o9 -115
  • 7/3.87 NYY -181
  • 5/8.10 TAM -1½ +162
  • 4/3.63 TAM u8 -110
  • 4/3.43 SEA u8 -117
  • 6/4.29 PIT -140
  • 4/3.48 PHI o8½ -115
  • 5/6.20 KAN +124
  • 5/5.25 STL u8½ +105
1748948006190.png

randoms...
STREAKS: MIL 8, TOR 5, NYM 4, (CHW, PHI) -4, SAC -7​
2025 SEASON​
@HOME 497-390 +0.7% ROI​
CHALK @HOME 343-217 +0.2%​
TOTALS IN ALL 398-456 or +2.2% ROI ON UNDERS​
​
1748948074166.png
173356.jpg
 
JUNE: [21-27 -36.52u]
LAST: [9-8 +2.60u]

Wow, talk about a bad run...after losing LAD u9 Sunday night, going 0-9 Monday and losing 1st 6 games yesterday; I managed an 0-16 streak 😵‍💫📉
...and now I'm on the ROX
laugh-emoji.gif


6/4 WED
  • 3/4.20 COL +140
  • 7/6.67 MIA u8 -105
  • 5/4.46 CIN -112
  • 4/4.20 CIN u8½ +105
  • 5/6.25 WAS +125
  • 5/7.75 ARI +155
  • 4/2.93 ARI +1½ -135
  • 4/4.20 ATL u8 +105
  • 5/4.81 SD -104
  • 4/3.48 SD o7 -115
  • 5/6.65 NYM +133
  • 5/5.00 NYM o9½ +100
  • 5/6.05 LAA +121
  • 4/3.78 LAA o10 -106
  • 5/8.25 CLE +165
  • 5/4.35 NYY u9 -115
  • 5/6.75 TEX +135
  • 4/3.48 TAM u9 -115
  • 4/3.64 PIT u9 -110
  • 5/4.90 TOR -102
  • 5/4.06 STL -123
  • 4/3.48 STL u8½ -115
1200px-Chief_Wahoo_%28mascot_character%29.svg.png

randoms...
  • STREAKS: BAL 4, SAC -8
  • MIA 7-17 AS FAV 2024-25 (MLB WORST)
  • SD 63-37 L100 AS FAV
  • ABBOTT(CIN) 9-3 +38.5% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
  • SALE(ATL) 9-2 +23.3% L365 DAYS @HOME
  • GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
    • ABBOTT(CIN) 7-2 +55.3% ROI w/1.50 / 0.98 / 3.978
    • PIVETTA(SD) 8-3 +43.7% ROI w/2.74 / 1.01 / 3.396
    • CANNING(NYM) 8-3 +35.1% ROI w/3.23 / 1.40 / 3.826
    • FREELAND(COL) 1-11 -73.3% w/5.56 / 1.55 / 3.649
  • 2025 SEASON
    • TEAMS @HOME 501-398 +0.2% ROI
    • TOTALS IN ALL 403-463 or +2.3% ROI ON UNDERS

1749034188989.jpeg
 
1749124903031.png
1749124937496.png
1749125396130.png

6/5 THU
  • 5/4.54 ATL u9 -110
  • 6/7.56 NYM +126
  • 5/5.00 NYM o9½ +100
  • 7/5.00 CHC -140
  • 5/2.08 NYY -240
  • 4/3.33 NYY -1½ -120
  • 5/5.00 TOR u8 +100
  • 5/3.36 HOU -149
  • 4/4.00 PIT u7½ +100
  • 6/3.28 G1-KAN +1½ -183
New-Amazon2.jpg


randoms...
  • STREAKS: BAL 5, MIA -4, SAC -9
  • TOTALS ALL 2025: 410-474 or +2.6% ROI ON UNDERS
  • MIZE(DET) 7-2 +58.6% ROI L365 DAYS AWAY
  • WOO(SEA) 9-2 +44.3% L365 DAYS @HOME
  • GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
    • RAY(SF) 10-2 +56.8% ROI w/2.43 / 1.11 / 3.712 xFIP
    • MIZE(DET) 7-2 +48.5% ROI w/2.82 / 1.14 / 3.850
    • FRIED(NYY) 10-2 +27% ROI w/1.92 / 0.97 / 3.237
    • KELLER(PIT) 3-9 -53.8% w/3.79 / 1.26 / 3.920
1749125698552.jpeg
1749125975069.jpeg
 
JUNE: [40-37 +3.58u]
LAST: [6-4 +2.05u]

6/6 FRI
  • 5/4.55 PIT u9 -110
  • 5/4.95 CIN -101
  • 5/6.40 SD +128
  • 6/6.06 STL +101
  • 5/3.94 ATL -127
  • 4/5.40 ATL -1½ +135
  • 5/4.55 SF u7½ -110
  • 4/7.52 CLE -1½ +188
  • 5/3.27 KAN -153
  • 5/3.62 SEA -138
  • 7/3.72 DET -188
  • 5/4.39 DET u7 -114
3 GAMES STILL NOT LISTED ON MY BOOKS, where I have several more plays if I get back in time...

atlanta-braves-logo-3.jpg
​

randoms...
  • STREAKS: BAL 6, ARI 4, (ATL, MIA) -4
  • TOTALS ALL 2025: 417-480 or +2.3% ROI ON UNDERS
  • WHEN FAV @HOME 2025: UNDERS 310-251 55.3% +5.2% ROI
  • SKUBAL(DET) 12-4 +21.8% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
  • MARTIN(CHW) 2-9 -60.2% L365 DAYS @HOME
  • CORBIN(TEX) 3-11 -58% L365 DAYS AWAY
  • GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
    • GRAY(STL) 10-2 +50.9% ROI w/3.65 / 1.12 / 3.048 xFIP
    • MARTIN(CHW) 2-9 -54.5% ROI w/4.02 / 1.28 / 4.368
    • SENZATELA(COL) 2-10 -62.5% w/7.14 / 1.98 / 4.599
1749208614410.png
1749208562609.png
Most productive...
1749208278147.png
cc32086daa196a60aae4b194555c84c561d705f1-1.jpg
 
JUNE: [45-45 -9.09u]
LAST: [5-8-2 -12.67u]

6/7 SAT
  • 6/3.35 LAD -179
  • 6/5.45 STL u8½ -110
  • 5/7.90 ATL +158
  • 5/4.72 PIT u8 -106
  • 5/4.29 ARI -116
  • 6/2.93 SD +1½ -205
  • 5/4.55 MIL u8½ -110
  • 5/1.94 NYM -258
  • 4/2.29 NYM -1½ -175
  • 4/5.40 CHW +135
  • 4/3.20 CHW +1½ -125
  • 5/5.25 CHW u8 +105
  • 4/5.80 LAA +145
  • 4/3.48 LAA +1½ -115
  • 4/4.32 SAC +108
  • 4/2.76 SAC +1½ -145
  • 5/4.63 BAL o10½ -108
  • 5/4.33 CHC -115
  • 7/4.25 TEX -165
  • 5/5.00 WAS u8 +100
  • 6/7.86 MIA +131
1749298519140.png
randoms...
  • STREAKS: (TAM, ARI) 4, (TEX, SEA) -4, (ATL, MIA) -5
  • TOTALS ALL 2025: 422-488 or +2.5% ROI ON UNDERS
  • WHEN FAV @HOME 2025: UNDERS 314-253 55.4% +5.4% ROI
  • SKUBAL(DET) 12-4 +21.8% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
  • MARTIN(CHW) 2-9 -60.2% L365 DAYS @HOME
  • CORBIN(TEX) 3-11 -58% L365 DAYS AWAY
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS:
    • QUINTANA(MIL) 5-2 +48.9% ROI w/3.76 / 1.48 / 4.350 xFIP
    • YARBROUGH(NYY) 4-1 -51.1% w/2.08 / 0.81 / 3.639
    • HOLMES(NYM 9-3 +18.2% w/2.83 / 1.03 / 3.673
    • PALMQUIST(COL) 0-4 -100% w/8.50 / 1.83 / na
    • MORTON(BAL) 2-6 -54.1% w/5.68 / 1.53 / 4.416
    • PADDACK(MIN) 3-9 -43.7% w/2.25 / 0.98 / 4.417 🤔
    • FEDDE(STL) 3-9 -51% w/3.99 / 1.35 / 4.888
the-white-sox-are-on-a-roll-v0-i33js5zyh3kd1.jpeg

On the model scoring, I found a small error that was scoring PPD games that were model plays as a loss,(only 2 model plays all year were PPD, but 7 leans were) so they were all regraded no action. My Excel formula that grades the plays is below, the highlighted part was not in the original formula. The lean formula was slightly different as it included different columns indicating the leans.

Code: 
=IF(ISBLANK(F337)," ",IF(OR(AND(Q337=$D337,$M337>$N337),AND(Q337=$G337,$M337<$N337)),"WIN",IF(OR(Q337="-",Q337="PPD"),"--","LOSS")))

Well the bold doesn't show in code box, but basically I didn't have OR funcition at end of formula (OR(Q337="-",Q337="PPD")

Record is corrected in the below image. Also of note, MIN was added as a model play late Friday after Shultz was announced for TOR and the line dropped from -150 to -120...unfortunately it turned out to be the only loser on the day. 😂🤣😂🤣​
​
1749298584867.png

dq82pa70yg6e1.png
 
1749300667767.png
1749300704410.png
Tigers been on quite a RL run and are now #1 in ML profit and only behind NYY in RL profit.
yglobJ.jpg

1749300827942.png
1749300923098.png
I changed this last table to show only the last 7 weeks instead of the full season. Unfortunately, the last 2 columns (AVG & xFIP) both come from Fangraphs and will still show the numbers for the whole season. I haven't figured out how to automate the last 49 days on that site yet. They do allow stats from selectable dates, but it's a little tricky to automate, and I'm not going to do it manually. lol I do enough manually as only about 75% of my stuff is currently automated.
 
So weather is starting not alcatara? That why line moved down. I’ve seen both of them listed places, so confusing. Yea I see weathers now. Well that changes things.
 
2daBank said:
Seems to be a theme the hottest teams been playing under baseball for most part
Click to expand...

Unders have been the rule this year so far, but I do expect we will see a run of overs as the weather heats up to make it more like recent years.


So far unders hitting much higher % than any other recent year​
1749321454650.png
 
1749382959232.png

JUNE: [61-50 +37.99u]
LAST: [16-5 +47.08u]

6/8 SUN
  • 6/6.30 TAM u8½ +105
  • 6/5.22 PIT u7 -115
  • 5/3.88 ARI -129
  • 6/5.71 CIN u9½ -105
  • 5/6.00 LAD -1½ +120
  • 5/1.97 NYM -254
  • 4/2.29 NYM -1½ -175
  • 5/4.17 COL u11 -120
  • 6/5.22 SF u8 -115
  • 5/4.55 MIN u8½ -110
  • 5/7.15 CHW +143
  • 6/5.22 CHW u9 -115
  • 4/5.04 LAA +126
  • 4/3.08 LAA +1½ -130
  • 3/6.60 MIA +220
  • 5/5.50 MIA +1½ +110
  • 6/7.44 WAS +124
  • 6/4.62 DET -130
  • 5/4.35 DET u8½ -115
1749382810865.jpeg
randoms...
  • STREAKS: (TOR, SF) 4, PHI -4, SEA -5, ATL -6
  • TOTALS ALL 2025: 429-496 or +2.5% ROI ON UNDERS
  • WHEN FAV @HOME 2025: UNDERS 316-256 55.4% +5.2% ROI
  • GALLEN(ARI) 9-3 +50.6% ROI L365 DAYS AWAY
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS:
    • ANDERSON(LAA) 9-3 +64.8% ROI w/4.74 / 1.37 / 5.125 xFIP 🤔
    • SANCHEZ(PHI) 10-2 +31.5% w/3.27 / 1.40 / 3.128
    • HORTON(CHC) 4-0 +53.4% w/3.74 / 1.29 / 3.975
    • STRIDER(ATL) 0-4 -100% w/6.43 / 1.43 / na
1749383007686.png
1749383523281.jpeg
 
1749465743133.png

Last 15 days Team Hitting
1749465713829.png
171861_2.jpg

1749465913392.png

Even though not what he was, Sale is still dealing and that why Bravos big chalk away on 7 game losing streak.

1749466084779.png

Even overall 6-7 in last 13 starts isn't because he isn't pitching well, it just shows how inept the ATL offense is

1749466222191.png

My Model's Top 25 starters (Stats projected)

1749466971987.png

1749467101021.jpeg
 
st-louis-cardinals-birds-on-bat-logo.png


1749468919935.png
1749469141661.png
RUNLINES ACTUALLY BEEN PRETTY GOOD FOR ME LATELY. \( ﾟヮﾟ)/🏆

6/9 MON
  • 7/7.35 PHI u7½ +105
  • 5/5.00 SD u8 +100
  • 5/5.25 CLE u8½ +105
  • 4/4.00 STL +100
  • 4/2.42 STL +1½ -165
  • 6/3.85 ARI -156
  • 5/5.25 SEA o9½ +105

80711622-photo-u-387830267


randoms...
  • STREAKS: SF 5, PHI -5, ATL -7
  • TOTALS ALL 2025: 434-506 or +2.9% ROI ON UNDERS
  • WHEN FAV @HOME 2025: UNDERS 321-258 5.5% +5.2% ROI
  • HANCOCK(SEA) 6-0 +112.8% ROI L365 DAYS AWAY
  • PIVETTA(SD) 10-4 +28% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME w/1.01 WHIP
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS:
    • PIVETTA(SD) 8-4 +31.8% ROI w/3.97 / 1.13 / 3.490 xFIP
    • BAZ(TAM) 8-4 +26.6% w/5.86 / 1.51 / 3.945
  • PADS HAVE A CHANCE TO FLEX WITH SERIES STARTING TONIGHT @PETCO AS THE GO WITH THEIR TOP STARTER(PIVETTA) ON SHORT REST, FIRST TIME ON 4 DAYS SINCE 4/16 WHEN HE LOOKED GREAT VS CUBS (6INN, 1ER, 6H, 1BB, 6K'S)
  • LAST 10 1749468156988.png
680fe93dc996e.image.jpg


1749468327496.png
 
Bro you couldn’t have found a younger gal wearing cardinals gear? I know stl isn’t loaded with top notch talent but we gotta be able to do better than that cougar!! The girl on bottom made me forget what I was gonna say bout the games so nice bounce back, I’m gonna assume she a cards fan since she has red barely on!
 
Good get on the cardinals price.

Not only has Baz been on good run look at his numbers vs Red Sox, he had a 6 inning 11k gem vs them earlier in year and collectively nobody on Sox has hit him! Bello is gonna have a hard time getting thru 5 innings without damage against those Tampa lefties! Surprised you don’t have a play on Tampa.
 
I knew you would see it my way w rays! You missed out I got plus money sometime this morning. Guess it won’t make much difference if they win tho!!
 
JUNE: [77-62 +53.49u]
LAST: [5-4 +4.24u]

6/10 TUE
  • 6/4.61 PIT -130
  • 6/8.40 WAS +140
  • 6/4.09 LAA -147
  • 6/6.30 CIN +105
  • 6/5.82 ARI -103
1749552434252.jpeg

1749552659906.gif
Happy birthday Kate, 33 today!
 
adding a few more...
  • 5/5.45 MIL +109
  • 6/3.03 SF -198
  • 6/4.29 SF -1½ -140
  • 6/5.22 SD -115
  • 5/5.00 BAL u9 +100
  • 5/5.00 BOS u9 +100
  • 6/6.66 TEX +111
  • 5/5.25 TAX o9 +105
  • 5/2.76 NYY -182
  • 4/3.48 NYY -1½ -115
  • 5/5.25 NYY o8½ +105
  • 5/7.45 CHW +149
  • 6/4.41 LAA -136
  • 5/5.00 ARI u9½ +100
KateUpton-Maxim2024_03_211.jpg.72389d277f57da9c7c37df14adced0d4.jpg
 
Last edited:
1749640585753.jpeg

1749641068386.png

1749641325567.png

6/11 WED
  • 6/6.30 PIT u8½ +105
  • 4/4.04 CHC +101
  • 5/2.60 CHC +1½ -192
  • 4/2.96 ATL -135
  • 4/5.00 ATL -1½ +125
  • 6/6.00 MIL u8 +100
  • 5/3.62 LAD -138
  • 5/5.25 SD u9½ +105
  • 5/2.27 SF -220
  • 4/2.70 SF -1½ -148
  • 5/4.76 SF o10 -105
  • 6/6.90 SAC +115
  • 5/5.25 LAA u9½ +105
  • 7/7.84 KAN +112
  • 5/7.70 CHW +154
  • 8/6.96 CLE u8½ -115
  • 6/4.41 STL -136
1200px-Kansas_City_Royals_Primary_Logo.svg.png
​

randoms...
  • STREAKS: SF 6, CIN 5, NYM 4, COL -4
  • SF TOTALS 3-18-1 SINCE MAY 171749640149897.png
  • ALL 2025 TOTALS: 448-514 or +2.1% ROI ON UNDERS
  • WHEN FAV @HOME 2025: UNDERS 326-267 55% +4.7% ROI
  • PETERSON(NYM) 14-2 +51.7% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
  • RAY(SF) 7-2 +64.8% L365 DAYS AWAY w/0.97 WHIP
  • WROBLESKI(LAD) 1-5 -70.9% L365 DAYS AWAY
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS:
    • LITTELL(TAM) 8-0 +103.9% ROI w/2.79 / 1.01 / 4.191 xFIP
    • RAY(SF) 6-2 +37% w/1.70 / 0.85 / 3.566
    • VASQUEZ(SD) 6-2 +34.5% w/3.54 / 1.38 / 5.677
    • FREELAND(COL) 2-6 -31% w/5.40 / 1.70 / 3.643
    • LEITER(TEX) 2-6 -56.2% w/4.10 / 1.27 / 4.708
woman.jpg

1749640250441.png
​
 
JUNE: [100-74 +93.03u]
LAST: [8-8 -13.14u]

6/12 THU
  • 3/6.30 WAS +210
  • 4/4.20 WAS +1½ +105
  • 6/5.22 NYM u8½ -115
  • 2/3.76 COL +188
  • 3/3.90 COL +1½ +130
  • 6/4.92 STL -122
  • 5/4.37 STL o7½ -114
  • 4/6.00 TEX +150
  • 4/2.86 TEX +1½ -140
  • 5/4.35 MIN u8½ -115
  • 7/4.07 DET -172
  • 5/4.76 DET -1½ -105
  • 7/2.93 HOU -239
mlb-detroit-tigers-logo.png


randoms...1749725122493.jpeg
STREAKS: SF 7, NYM 5, (STL, WAS) -4, COL -5
SF HOME GAMES 13-1 UNDER TOTAL L14
ALL 2025 TOTALS: 454-521 or +2.2% ROI ON UNDERS
WHEN FAV @HOME 2025: UNDERS 332-270 55.1% +5.0% ROI
VALDEZ(HOU) 13-3 +32.9% ROI L365 DAYS w/1.02 WHIP @HOME
SENGA(NYM) 6-1 +31.4% L365 DAYS AWAY @HOME
MARTIN(CHW) 1-9 -73.6% L365 DAYS AWAY
HEANEY(PIT) 4-12 -50.6% L365 DAYS AWAY
CORBIN(TEX) 3-12 -60.8% L365 DAYS AWAY
HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS:
  • GRAY(STL) 7-1 +52.5% ROI w/3.30 / 1.30 / 3.046 xFIP
  • VALDEZ(HOU) 6-2 +33.8% w/2.37 / 0.91 / 3.015
  • SKUBAL(DET) 7-1 +25.9% ROI w/1.81 / 0.66 / 2.291
  • BIRDSONG(SF) 3-1 +45.5% ROI w/2.84 / 1.26 / 3.958
  • HEANEY(PIT) 2-6 +46.3% w/4.39 / 1.44 / 4.263
  • CORBIN(TEX) 2-6 -58.9% w/3.45 / 1.06 / 4.262
  • SENZATELA(COL) 0-7 -100% w/8.82 / 2.02 / 4.740
481731967.0.jpg

1749725012804.jpeg
 
1749812029940.png
1749811983767.png

6/13 FRI
  • 6/5.85 PIT -103
  • 6/9.48 SF +158
  • 5/4.41 BAL u10½ -113
  • 6/4.51 BOS -133
...more to come
1749812077248.png

randoms...
  • STREAKS: NYM 6, (STL, WAS) -5
  • UNDERS 210-165 56% +6.8% ROI L30 DAYS
  • ROADIES ON RL 106-76 +6.9% ROI L15 DAYS
  • HOLMES(NYM) 5-1 +22.6% ROI L365 DAYS w/1.06 WHIP @HOME
  • CROCHET(BOS) 1-14 -91.6% L365 DAYS @HOME
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS:
    • GORDON(HOU) 4-1 +60.7% ROI w/5.11 / 1.38 / 3.247 xFIP
    • HORTON(CHC) 4-1 +22.7% ROI w/4.39 / 1.39 / 3.962
    • HOLMES(NYM) 6-2 +12.4% w/2.83 / 1.09 / 3.598

1749812128030.jpeg
1749812604806.jpeg
 
Thanks Mrpickem for all you do to help us beat the books and sharing with us this great CROCHET(BOS) 1-14 -91.6% L365 DAYS @HOME info, it is amazing in a rough way(talk about hard luck pitcher with a 2.38 ERA at home this season} yet you still play the Red Sox, you're going with the due factor? Good luck with your plays today.
 
John Doe said:
Thanks Mrpickem for all you do to help us beat the books and sharing with us this great CROCHET(BOS) 1-14 -91.6% L365 DAYS @HOME info, it is amazing in a rough way(talk about hard luck pitcher with a 2.38 ERA at home this season} yet you still play the Red Sox, you're going with the due factor? Good luck with your plays today.
Click to expand...
Yeah you said, couldn't be a more hard luck starter than Crochet, like you mentioned he has actually pitched well and BOS is hitting better lates (5.83 RPG last 12 while going 7-5), plus they beat NYY 2 of 3 last weekend in NY.

1749840194845.png
 
...adding a few more
  • 5/5.15 MIA +103
  • 5/5.25 WAS u8½ +105
  • 5/5.00 ATL u8½ +100
  • 4/5.00 SD +125
  • 4/2.42 SD +1½ -165
  • 5/5.00 SD o9½ +100
  • 2/3.36 SF +168
  • 4/2.86 SF +1½ -140
  • 6/10.02 LAA +167
  • 5/4.76 LAA o10½ -105
  • 7/4.00 TEX -175
  • 4/5.60 SAC +140
  • 4/2.76 SAC +1½ -145
  • 5/5.00 KAN u8 +100
  • 6/5.55 SEA -108
  • 4/4.20 TOR +105
  • 4/2.00 TOR +1½ -200
  • 5/4.76 TOR o8 -105
  • 5/5.70 CIN +114
  • 5/5.00 DET u8 +100
  • 5/7.95 TAM +159
1749840926566.jpeg​

Model plays updating with remaining starters and line moves:
1749840359350.png
1749840749330.jpeg
 
mrpickem said:
Yeah you said, couldn't be a more hard luck starter than Crochet, like you mentioned he has actually pitched well and BOS is hitting better lates (5.83 RPG last 12 while going 7-5), plus they beat NYY 2 of 3 last weekend in NY.

View attachment 98333
Click to expand...

I generally expect a starter as good as crochet facing a team b2b starts to be really good in start 2 if he wasn’t so good the 1st start. Books gotta be expecting both pitchers to be better cause it took guts making this total 8.5 after what we saw last weekend!
 
JUNE: [112-86 +116.21u]
LAST: [12-12 +4.48u]

6/14 SAT
  • 7/3.18 CHC -220
  • 6/1.95 ATL -308
  • 6/9.90 SF +165
  • 4/3.08 SF +1½ -130
  • 5/4.55 SF o9 -110
  • 5/3.30 BAL -151
  • 5/5.25 LAA o9 +105
  • 5/1.37 TEX -364
  • 5/4.59 KAN u9½ -109
  • 6/5.17 HOU -116
  • 5/3.31 NYY -151
  • 5/5.00 NYY -1½ +100
  • 5/4.55 BOS u8½ -110
  • 6/3.51 PHI -171
  • 5/2.79 TAM +1½ -179
Yesterday, I would have been better off sticking with my 4 early plays (4-0 +24u), but that's not my nature. 👌 Saturday looks a bit scary with all the chalk I'm laying...that and my day-of-the-week stats still show Saturday as my worse day this season.

1749901091049.png
uqPEkQ.png

randoms...
  • STREAKS: ARI 4, KAN -4, (STL, WAS) -6
  • UNDERS 214-167 56.2% +7.1% ROI L30 DAYS
  • BOYD(CHC) 10-2 +43.2% ROI L365 DAYS w/1.01 WHIP @HOME
  • KIRBY(SEA) 2-8 -65.8% L365 DAYS @HOME
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS:
    • RYAN(MIN) 6-1 +47.2% ROI w/1.98 / 0.90 / 4.220 xFIP
    • DEGROM(TEX) 6-2 +24% ROI w/1.46 / 0.83 / 3.332
    • BROWN(HOU) 6-2 +19.3% w/2.25 / 1.10 / 3.149
    • SANCHEZ(PHI) 6-2 +16.6% w/2.91 / 1.30 / 3.025
    • FRANCIS(TOR) 2-6 -48% w/8.26 / 1.87 / 5.671 (7-1 OVERS)
    • STRIDER(ATL) 0-4 -100% w/5.85 / 1.30 / 5.008
1749901182803.jpeg​
1749901238414.jpeg​
​
FWIW, this is how I did on ML action per team this season.​
1749901429072.png​
119904.jpg
 
1749988316725.jpeg
1749987759050.png
1749987715292.png 1749988029521.gif

6/15 SUN
  • 5/5.00 ATL u8½ +100
  • 6/6.00 WAS u7½ +100
  • 6/9.06 PIT +151
  • 4/2.86 PIT +1½ -140
  • 5/5.00 CHC u7½ +100
  • 5/5.65 SD +113
  • 4/4.56 LAA +114
  • 4/2.33 LAA +1½ -172
  • 5/2.68 NYY -186
  • 4/3.48 NYY -1½ -115
  • 5/5.00 BOS u8½ +100
  • 5/6.75 SAC +135
  • 5/5.25 KAN u9 +105
  • 4/4.76 MIN +119
  • 4/2.38 MIN +1½ -168
  • 6/5.45 HOU u8½ -110
  • 5/8.35 CHW +167
  • 4/3.20 CHW +1½ -125
  • 5/4.37 CHW o8 -114
  • 4/6.60 CIN +165
  • 4/3.20 CIN +1½ -125
  • 6/4.29 TOR +1½ -140
  • 5/4.55 PHI u7½ -110
  • 6/8.16 TAM +136

2081MBLKFHEPPI-1.jpg


randoms...
  • STREAKS: ARI 5, (BOS, HOU) 4, CHW -4, KAN -5, WAS -7
  • HOME TEAMS 79-56 +7.1% ROI LAST 10 DAYS
  • UNDERS 218-172 55.9% +6.6% ROI LAST 30 DAYS
  • BOYD(CHC) 10-2 +43.2% ROI L365 DAYS w/1.01 WHIP @HOME
  • KIRBY(SEA) 2-8 -65.8% L365 DAYS @HOME
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS:
    • MIKOLAS(STL) 7-1 +74.3% ROI w/3.80 / 1.20 / 4.662 xFIP
    • KIKUCHI(LAA) 6-2 +66.8% ROI w/1.97 / 1.38 / 5.088
    • CANNING(NYM) 6-2 +42.5% w/3.29 / 1.33 / 4.672
    • WHEELER(PHI) 6-1 +34.2% w/2.22 / 0.81 / 2.972
    • FRIED(NYY) 7-2 +14.3% w/2.08 / 0.89 / 2.628
    • HOLMES(ATL) 2-6 -60.4% w/3.80 / 1.20 / 3.409
    • KELLER(PIT) 1-7 -76.9% w/4.28 / 1.26 / 3.262
il_570xN.4899051028_gmdo.jpg
 
1749989944610.png

The most profitable teams on model plays and the model profit by day of week.

1749990046526.png.
1749990304076.jpeg
1749990193721.png
1749990214547.png
1749990252324.jpeg
1749990230372.png


I know I'm not having a great year, but I am very proud of the way I've turned it around over the last few weeks. After bottoming out after June 2nd at -189.85u, I've been on a literal scorcher ever since, going 120-75 61.5% for +175.54u! Still -14.31u on the year, but that looks way better than it did. Was never up on the year after the 2nd Doyer game in Japan, but I hope to go positive in the next few days. 🤞
1749990792227.png
 
@mrpickem i appreciate your info man. Wish i had better database skills so i could ease some of the manual processes i have.

Best of luck on the rest of the season and always appreciate the photo additions!
 
1200px-RedSoxPrimary_HangingSocks.svg.png

JUNE: [145-105 +148.92u]
LAST: [13-11 +12.50u]

...and then there's my current incomprehensible 13-day-run
1750070856914.png
... I must be dreaming, but I don't want to wake up

6-15 MON
  • 7/3.66 WAS -191
  • 4/4.16 WAS -1½ +104
  • 6/7.74 SD +129
  • 5/5.00 SD o9 +100
  • 5/9.05 LAA +181
  • 5/5.00 BAL o9 +100
  • 4/6.68 BOS +167
  • 4/2.96 BOS +1½ -135
  • 5/4.00 SEA u7½ -125
1750069938779.jpeg​

randoms...
  • STREAKS: (BOS, HOU) 5, (TEX, PHI) 4, MIN -4, CHW -5, KAN -6, WAS -8
  • HOME TEAMS 80-57 +4.5% ROI LAST 10 DAYS
  • ROADIES 119-67 64% +8.6% ROI ON RL LAST 14 DAYS
  • UNDERS 218-171 56% +6.9% ROI LAST 30 DAYS
  • EFLIN(BAL) 10-5 +28.3% ROI L365 DAYS w/1.12 WHIP AWAY
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS:
    • ALCANTARA(MIA) 2-6 -42.5% w/7.49 / 1.59 / 4.540
    • PEPIOT(TAM) 2-6 -55% w/2.64 / 0.97 / 3.669
    • PALMQUIST(COL) 0-7 -100% w/7.77 / 1.82 / 6.173
  • ROCKIE FACTOR 1750069719805.png
    • FADE COL ON ML: 57-14 +14.9% ROI
    • FADE COL ON RL: 45-26 +11.3% ROI
    • COL AWAY TOTALS: 12-23-2 33% OR +24.6% ROI ON UNDERS

1750071354034.png
1750071320640.png
173438.jpg
 
Last edited:
1750161955687.png​

1750162042546.png
1750162063241.png

1750162126941.png​

6/17 TUE
  • 5/2.70 WAS -185
  • 4/4.40 WAS -1½ +110
  • 5/4.55 WAS u9½ -110
  • 4/4.76 NYM +119
  • 5/2.94 NYM +1½ -170
  • 5/5.00 ATL u8½ +100
  • 3/6.66 LAA +222
  • 4/4.20 LAA +1½ +105
  • 5/2.86 KAN +1½ -175
  • 5/4.55 TEX u8½ -110
  • 4/7.08 PIT +177
  • 5/4.17 PIT +1½ -120
  • 5/4.55 PIT o8 -110
  • 5/4.35 CIN -115
  • 5/4.55 CHW u8½ -110
  • 5/3.23 CLE +1½ -155

randoms...
  • STREAKS: BOS 6, PHI 5, (TAM, OAK, TEX) 4, (NYY, MIN) -4, CHW -5, KAN -6, WAS -9
  • ROAD TEAMS 79-50 61.2% +9.7% ROI ON RL LAST 10 DAYS
  • UNDERS 213-168 55.9% +6.7% ROI LAST 30 DAYS
  • WOO(SEA) 9-3 +32.3% ROI L365 DAYS w/0.87 WHIP @HOME
  • RAY(SF) 8-3 +21.2% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
  • SMITH(CHW) 1-5 -61.3% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
  • SENZATELA(COL) 1-6 -64.3% ROI L365 DAYS AWAY
  • LIDERATORE(STL) 1-7 -68.5% ROI L365 DAYS AWAY
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS:
    • LITTELL(TAM) 7-1 +81% w/3.08 / 1.03 / 4.151 xFIP
    • PEPIOT(TAM) 6-2 +80.7% w/1.61 / 0.96 / 4.655
    • FALTER(PIT) 7-1 +55.4% w/4.50 / 1.41 / 3.515
    • RAY(SF) 6-2 +34.5% w/1.80 / 0.94 / 3.588
    • VASQUEZ(SD) 6-2 +34.5% w/3.10 / 1.28 / 5.604
    • WARREN(NYY) 6-2 +20.2% w/4.38 / 1.33 / 3.320
    • LEITER(TEX) 2-6 -56.2% w/4.46 / 1.32 / 4.808
    • SENZATELA(COL) 1-6 -61.1% w/9.92 / 2.20 / 4.940
  • ROCKIE FACTOR
    • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 30-8 +10.5% ROI
    • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 23-15 +9.2% ROI
    • COL AWAY TOTALS: 13-23-2 36.1% OR +21.6% ROI ON UNDERS
1750160854620.jpeg​
1750161144763.jpeg
1750161274406.jpeg
8939.jpg


 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top