June 9th discussion

2daBank

2daBank

Voice of Reason
Well I slept so much today using the Indica gummies to cure the hangover now I can tell it gonna take a minute to sleep! Wish I had a nice joint but out of smoke that would make this more fun and prob help my go to sleep after I cap some games. Anyways gonna make up for not doing any work Sunday and start capping some and putting thoughts down so ya’ll can read and respond in morning.
 
So glad this fish/pirates series is in Pitt, not sure if I could play the unders in Miami but at pitcher friendly pnc all day. Perez looked like he was gonna be a beast when he came up then he got hurt, he still so young I suspect he comes back at least as strong if not stronger. Reports are he threw ball well in rehab starts but I didn’t look and see how stretched out he been? I assume he ready to throw 80-90 pitches. Don’t know bunch bout pirates pitcher but he facing fish at home he should be good enough w a 8.5 total: I’ll be betting that now as I assume only one way it can go and getting the half run could be big.

Fish/pitates un 8.5

Slight lean to fish, hoping it maybe goes up a bit, +115 or so but I have no clue which way it move or if it does? It actually opened +112 and shot down to +101, I guess Perez not a secret think he was a big prospect! I’ll only play it if money pushes fish back up to around +110 so just a wait and see.
 
I’d like to talk myself into the reds, -163 seems awful steep for gaurdians, I’d be surprised if line didn’t come down soon but it takes a lot of faith Miley be much better and look more like himself coming off TJ.
 
I love wheeler but I think ya gotta like cubs as dogs. Boyd should be able to neutralize Philly struggling lineup. The way Philly playing this month even with wheeler on the bump facing a good lineup I gotta lean to the cubbies, I think at worst Boyd can pitch to a draw, I’d say cubs maybe could get to wheeler a bit but he coming off a bad start so little scared of him. Still have to be cubs or nothing.
 
I have no clue how they can have Red Sox as favs? Bello been pretty awful even more so in Fenway and rays have Teed off on him. Only way Sox could win this game is if their offense continues humming like in yaks series but look at what baz has done to them, 5 hits and 17k’s in 43 at bats!! He dominated them earlier in the year going 6 innings of 1 run ball, only 2 hits, and 11k’s! Like rays ml, will def be playing some of rays lefty bats, and possibly baz prop depending on numbers.
 
That’s all im gonna do tonight. Gonna watch battle hawks playoff replay I dunno if they won or not! Then I have the Spain/portugal replay at 3am on record cause I missed it today watching the same bowling rerun from awhile ago I think and some of creed 3 but mostly slept. Lol
 
2daBank said:
That’s all im gonna do tonight. Gonna watch battle hawks playoff replay I dunno if they won or not! Then I have the Spain/portugal replay at 3am on record cause I missed it today watching the same bowling rerun from awhile ago I think and some of creed 3 but mostly slept. Lol
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Spain/Portugal was elite level
 
KJ said:
Spain/Portugal was elite level
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Sucks the replay not til 3! I figured it be good cause Spain/france was one the best matches I’d seen in a long time, this UEFA thing has been good, I love the soccer when the best countries care!
 
Well this battle hawks xfl isn’t going so well and even worse battle hawks so bad this game not even interesting to watch. The soccer shoulda been replayed now and this shit show at 3am! I almost fell asleep but it so bad I keep turning channel to mlb highlights. Lol
 
Had some discipline yesterday with only the one play in baseball. So far just one play this morning, had a DK boost for the NRFI, so playing it with the Braves with Sale on the mound.
 
KJ said:
Spain/Portugal was elite level
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The French open final was better but yea it was pretty good, I slept on and off and had to rewind a few times but I ended up watching most of it, I hate when they end in penalty kicks tho. So depressing for that to be the decider.
 
askias said:
Had some discipline yesterday with only the one play in baseball. So far just one play this morning, had a DK boost for the NRFI, so playing it with the Braves with Sale on the mound.
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Philly game might be ok for that also but I havnt checked the prices or looked at the starters 1st innings yet, just off top my head with Philly offense struggling and wheeler on bump it makes sense. I’d think w Boyd pitching turner be the only obstical for him in 1st, he has only given up one 1st inning home run tho so I like that.
 
So I kinda love a bunch of small dogs today. Seems like a perfect card for a 4 team round robin in groups of 2’s!

Cubs +113
Rays +101
Pads +104
Fish/pirates u8 +100

I fucked up last night, thought I was grabbing the pirates under when I posted it as I been saving a half run or juice playing them overnight but as mentioned I was pretty high and the bet was still sitting in the bet slip but I didn’t make it, maybe it worked out for the best, lost the half run but it can only be a push not a loss cause of that and I need a 4th team to compete the RR anyways.
 
Boyd ov 5.5 k’s. He only 7-5 to 6+ k’s but he has cashed this in 5 of last 6 and during that time his swinging strike rate which has been several ticks low this season has been much stronger and closer to rest his career in 5 of last 7. Taking on a Philly offense that been struggling, Philly lineup strikes out 25% the time vs lhp, and been striking out 25% against everyone the last 2 weeks. He has also hit the over 17.5 outs in 5 of 6, has hit it overall 8-4 so slightly better than the k’s and I’m actually torn here, I feel pretty confident if he goes 6 he gets the k’s so whichever price better might be the move? I’d like to see the lineups before deciding between the k’s or outs.
 
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Seems to me that everything about the Sox/rays game is backwards, I’d have made rays the small favs and now looking at the props they have Bello at 17.5 outs and baz only 16.5!! 3 of Baz 4 road starts he has went at least 5.2 innings and 8-4 overall on the year over 16.5, ive already mentioned how good he been vs Red Sox including a 6 inning gem earlier this year. This should be a much different game than the crazy shootouts in the Bronx over the weekend, think the bats come back to earth against the rays!! On the other hand Bello has only cashed 17.5 out total once the past month + in his last start vs laa who’s lineup doesn’t present nearly the challenge for him that the rays do. I love Bello under 17.5 outs. Lean to baz over outs but think I prefer to just play Bello under and some the rays hitters.
 
Not sure about this 17.5 out total for cards starter Pallante, I believe he has only went 6+ in 5 of 12 starts. 5 home starts only went 6+ 1x! It’s odd cause if he is doing well he tends to go 7+ it just doesn’t happen a ton and more so against weaker lineups on the road. Jays are also a tough matchup for him cause he has some reverse splits where righties have hit him pretty hard while holding left handers to a ops under .700. So might not be a great day for the Bargar kid but vlad, bo, springer all could have nice games and I just don’t see a world they want him pitching to those guys a 3rx time around. When looking at this I was pretty surprised to see cards have been bet to favs.
 
Doesn’t mean anything for today but I was surprised to hear cards have played the most double headers in baseball. I assume that why they started some scrub I never heard of yesterday?? Anyways something to keep in mind as that can wear out a pitching staff.
 
Fish are getting pushed back to dogs, anything plus I kinda like them also, already have enough plays cause outside those 3 hitter props I assume I’ll have 3-4 pitchers on this card as well! So I guess fish a pass unless they get bet back up to +110
 
So im very tempted to play the Perez ov5.5 k’s in Pitt. Yes being his 1st start back from Tommy John worries me a tad but his k’s per 9 remained elite in the rehab starts. We talking bout a kid that was sporting a swinging strike rate over 15% his rookie season! He had a bunch of ganes where that swinging strike was hovering around 20%! There no doubt he has the stuff to not only get into pitcher counts but put guys away when they have 2 strikes and now he gets the pirates, he probably doesn’t even have to pitch a full 5 innings to punch out 6 in this game assuming he still the same guy, im far more worried bout older guys like wade Miley coming off TJ than I am a 22-23 year old kid who has been away for I think the 18 months you really want as I believe most pitchers start looking like themselves around that time.
 
Since his last start of April sale has went 7 innings 2x, 6 innings 2x, 6.2 innings once and then one start he failed to get 17.5 outs. He has also struck out 10 in 3 games, 8 in 3 games, and 1 game of 6k’s vs pads who I think we all agree a much better lineup than milw! I generally shy away from 7.5 k’s but think there a pretty good case to play sake to punch out 8+! There def a great case to play over 17.5 outs even if it is juicy.
 
The cincy and milw games i have already played. Not super excited about mileys last outing, but i would expect a better effort this go around. He is a good reason they are priced as such. Reds hit rights at a decent clip,, and Ortiz has worse splits against right handed batters. While fridel lux and benson are leftie...they have good splits against RHP. Ill take my chances at what i think is a fair price.

The milw play was not a play against Sale, although i do expect him to have a better outing than last go around, but moreso getting a team moving in a better direction than a struggling team. Im fairly compensated for the pitching mismatch on paper, limited at bats for the brew crew against sale, but of those that have seen him there has been some succes in getting on base. Price has dropped too much for me to take the side here. The overnight number was much closer to the "play it range"
 
slim5150 said:
The cincy and milw games i have already played. Not super excited about mileys last outing, but i would expect a better effort this go around. He is a good reason they are priced as such. Reds hit rights at a decent clip,, and Ortiz has worse splits against right handed batters. While fridel lux and benson are leftie...they have good splits against RHP. Ill take my chances at what i think is a fair price.

The milw play was not a play against Sale, although i do expect him to have a better outing than last go around, but moreso getting a team moving in a better direction than a struggling team. Im fairly compensated for the pitching mismatch on paper, limited at bats for the brew crew against sale, but of those that have seen him there has been some succes in getting on base. Price has dropped too much for me to take the side here. The overnight number was much closer to the "play it range"
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I agree cincy or nothing but Miley does scare me, he should be better but when they coming off a major procedure you never really know. Alcantera hasn’t been right all year now they been pushing his starts back. But I agree if you get pre TJ Miley it a good bet.

I don’t have any objection to fading Braves, I kinda like sale props but that doesn’t mean they win.
 
On the other games...i would have a hard time playing the pirates as a favorite with anyone pitching not names Skenes. I recall that Miami pitxher before he went down to injury. Hars to bet the marlins side as you dont know how much they are going to let him go. Ill pass...watch...and maybe put some lunch money on the under. I would wonder how rested that bullpen is after that seriess in the new trop.

Cubs will be a play for me. I like the matchup on paper. Im hopeful that the weaknesses philly has against LHP continues. These philly hitters are too good to not produce, but pretty demoralizing to get swept by a team ina 3 game series that scored 9 total runs in the set. Woof. Cubs batters on the season have been one of the best i. Run productiin. They are against a quality pitcher in wheeler but he is not without fault. Give me the dog.

I wont get it...but if i could get tampa as a 110 dog...i would take it. Bello is a hitters best friend.

Ill look at the others later.
 
2daBank said:
I agree cincy or nothing but Miley does scare me, he should be better but when they coming off a major procedure you never really know. Alcantera hasn’t been right all year now they been pushing his starts back. But I agree if you get pre TJ Miley it a good bet.

I don’t have any objection to fading Braves, I kinda like sale props but that doesn’t mean they win.
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Im even fine if miley gets pulled early or on a limited pitch count. As long as he doesnt give up too many i think the reds can get to ortiz. The reds sweeping them has to be on the minds of the guardians. That was o e reason i bet that immediatly. I figured the line would drop...and it dis initially. But i guess people saw mileys lone start and bet the home team back up
 
slim5150 said:
On the other games...i would have a hard time playing the pirates as a favorite with anyone pitching not names Skenes. I recall that Miami pitxher before he went down to injury. Hars to bet the marlins side as you dont know how much they are going to let him go. Ill pass...watch...and maybe put some lunch money on the under. I would wonder how rested that bullpen is after that seriess in the new trop.

Cubs will be a play for me. I like the matchup on paper. Im hopeful that the weaknesses philly has against LHP continues. These philly hitters are too good to not produce, but pretty demoralizing to get swept by a team ina 3 game series that scored 9 total runs in the set. Woof. Cubs batters on the season have been one of the best i. Run productiin. They are against a quality pitcher in wheeler but he is not without fault. Give me the dog.

I wont get it...but if i could get tampa as a 110 dog...i would take it. Bello is a hitters best friend.

Ill look at the others later.
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Yea we agree on all that
 
2daBank said:
Brandin Lowe over 1.5 bases
Aranda over 1.5 h/r/rbi

Jose Ramirez ov 1.5 total bases
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Turner ov 1.5 total bases

Eury Perez ov 5.5 k’s
Boyd ov 5.5 k’s
Sale ov 7.5 k’s
Pivetta ov 5.5 k’s

Bello under 17.5 outs
Pallante under 17.5 outs

Love those out totals, crazy how fast I’ve grown to like playing under on these ax much as over and the win percentage been just as strong, I was shocked to see a 17.5 on either one these guys! Both lineups they facing are not good matchups and as I talked about above neither these pitchers been consistently getting thru 6 innings. Unless one gets left out there as a sacrificial lamb and allowed to give up 5/6 runs and still pitching!
 
Perez is obviously risky but as I mentioned even if he fails to make it thru a full 5 innings I believe he could still cash this and if he starts posting the swinging strike rate he did as a rookie then we Won’t get many chances to play him at 5.5! The way I see it if we lose this we will get a few more 5.5 on him and at some point he will smash that number. The fact he starting this 1st game against pirates made this decision easier.
 
There one more pitcher prop I will probably add on a west coast game but am a little torn on laying juice for the over out total or getting plus on the k’s? Lol. I’ll figure it out and that will be entire card.

It’s merril Kelly if any doubts. He has punched out 6+ in 6 straight and in those 6 his swinging strike has ramped up. That said at his best he more a QS machine that strike out artist, the idea 6 innings cashes pitching a game in Seattle is really tough to pass up even with the -170 juice. Could do a 2 teamer with bello under outs who -160x no sense throwing Pallante in since he plus money to the under. Those 2 together is about +158 and I feel incredibly strong about both.
 
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2daBank said:
Turner ov 1.5 total bases

Eury Perez ov 5.5 k’s
Boyd ov 5.5 k’s
Sale ov 7.5 k’s
Pivetta ov 5.5 k’s

Bello under 17.5 outs
Pallante under 17.5 outs

Love those out totals, crazy how fast I’ve grown to like playing under on these ax much as over and the win percentage been just as strong, I was shocked to see a 17.5 on either one these guys! Both lineups they facing are not good matchups and as I talked about above neither these pitchers been consistently getting thru 6 innings. Unless one gets left out there as a sacrificial lamb and allowed to give up 5/6 runs and still pitching!
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So instead of the -160 on Bello straight I am rocking with this

2 teamer +158

Bello un 17.5 outs
Kelly ov 17.5 outs.

2 teamer +233

Bello u 17.5 outs
Pallente u17.5 outs
 
Cubs Turner or Phils Turner?

Considering you're on a Cubs pitcher prop but concerned about Wheeler pitching well also, there's room for confusion there. Pretty sure you're not much a fan of Justin but with a Boyd prop against Trea, it's a little puzzling.
 
KJ said:
Cubs Turner or Phils Turner?

Considering you're on a Cubs pitcher prop but concerned about Wheeler pitching well also, there's room for confusion there. Pretty sure you're not much a fan of Justin but with a Boyd prop against Trea, it's a little puzzling.
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Oh yea my bad, actually the Phillies turner, he the only spot in lineup im super worried bout but hoping he gets a meaningless double or few hits. For future reference I def understand why could be confusion here the reason it didn’t cross my mind cause you will never catch me playing that red headed Justin Turner.
 
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Philly lineup looks funny as they clearly don’t want lefties in vs Boyd, I probably shoulda waited ti play his k prop til I saw lineups like I said in way earlier post, lol. Im
Not sure if these guys Philly starting tonight have a lot of swing and miss or not. I do think leading off Turner and putting Castellanos in cleanup spot was a good lineup move for Philly.

@KJ is Justin Turner on jays? If so he not in lineup, that how much I know bout him! lol
 
2daBank said:
Philly lineup looks funny as they clearly don’t want lefties in vs Boyd, I probably shoulda waited ti play his k prop til I saw lineups like I said in way earlier post, lol. Im
Not sure if these guys Philly starting tonight have a lot of swing and miss or not. I do think leading off Turner and putting Castellanos in cleanup spot was a good lineup move for Philly.

@KJ is Justin Turner on jays? If so he not in lineup, that how much I know bout him! lol
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Ok im still happy with Boyd k’s, the bottom 4 in that lineup could easily get him 4 k’s if not 5 depending if he gets around order a 3rd time. I imagine he can fan 1-2 in the top half at the very least.,
 
2daBank said:
Philly lineup looks funny as they clearly don’t want lefties in vs Boyd, I probably shoulda waited ti play his k prop til I saw lineups like I said in way earlier post, lol. Im
Not sure if these guys Philly starting tonight have a lot of swing and miss or not. I do think leading off Turner and putting Castellanos in cleanup spot was a good lineup move for Philly.

@KJ is Justin Turner on jays? If so he not in lineup, that how much I know bout him! lol
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No he's on Cubs and starts occasionally
 
KJ said:
No he's on Cubs and starts occasionally
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lol, he was on jays last year then I think? He gotta be in a platoon situation at best? I guess I recall seeing him on cubs before and thinking how much I don’t like him. lol
 
Jacob Wilson rookie year actually looks stronger than ichiro and ichiro was already a pro when he was a rookie! Sucks A’s went on such an awful slide, I think eventually this month and half of aweful baseball will give us value to play them again when they start playing .500 ball vs the better teams eventually! lol
 
I don’t play enough nhl to post it but I’m pretty decent at these playoff series. I would highly recommend a 2 game chase (If needed for oilers to get a win in Florida catching +126ish) ideally they win tonight and we can back panthers gm 4 but if the lose I’ll do 3x the bet in gm4, after watching the 1st 2 of this series I have no doubt whatsoever it be 2-2 going back to Edmonton for game 5.
 
1st time I’ve cooked in like a year, made seared tuna steaks w corn and green beans! Man I forgot how much better it was to cook that eat all fast food crap! So good and healthy. Just stopped pretty much when Theresa got sick enough she wasn’t eating many meals just little snacks. Gotta have ppl over to do it tho, it was hard enough cooking for 2 or 3 trying to cook for 1 doesn’t work for me, that almost as bad as drinking alone (no offense to drunks or my guy @KJ, lol).
 
Cubs fuvked that up, they coulda easily thrown home and got Schwarber out instead of trying to turn 2 and letting him score. You facing wheeler you can’t hand them runs!
 
Nevermind they gonna get the out I think and still be scoreless. Tampa making Bello look way better than he been this year, hopefully they can get to Bello the 2nd time around.
 
So pissed off cubs just handed Philly that 1st run, could had Schwarber easy at home and it be a tie gane! You can’t face wheeler and hand runs away! The good news wheeler day just bout over.
 
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