June 7th discussion thread

2daBank

2daBank

Voice of Reason
Today was an odd day and I might have been high but times got all away from me and I hardly bet anything! Hoping giants can pull out the late game for a win but who knows. Anyways it’s cool lot of day games 2marro cause I have my nephew graduation party little later on and I’ll be getting smashed! Or buzzed at least! I don’t really drink much I rather get high 😎😋🤪. Let’s jump
This off with some quick random 1st thoughts.


@B.A.R. Do you know which pitcher will follow holton? I need to know that to have any chance to cap the cubs/tigers.

Jays are hot, after getting day off vs a lhp Barger kid comes back in and smashes his 5th bomb in last 6 i think? Even money it def jays or nothing for me. Def see some props here also.

I dunno if cards and lad will be playing or sitting thru another long delay or what? I know I’ll happily play Ohtani-son over vs Fedde. Maybe some teoscar and Betts also. Maybe Dodgers team total over? See about weather.

Def under in Pitt, 8.5 with these pitchers I like a lot.

Maybe wacha out total? Have to see his numbers at chisox

Brown v Gavin Williams should be a great pitching matchup as I think Gavin can handle Stros lineup, looking at pitcher props here and the under.

Possible k props on both pitchers in the fish/rays game!

Maybe a Alonso prop at Coors v a lefty.


Sorry so short but that all I got off top my head. It been a long day.
 
So now giants are freaking -170 after Braves were -140 in game 1?? Gm1 shoulda been a pick and giants should prob be more like -140-150 here imo: that not really enough for me to play against Webb since it appears that 2 Game stretch he looked off was just a blip, he buried me thinking it could be more last time out and he was dominant again! Lol. This game a total pass I think. Braves actually have pretty good numbers vs Webb, in a lot of at bats they have a collective exit velo of 93mph, lot of guys have hit him hard. Think ill
Stick with this line should be -145ish but I’m not interested in the Braves getting slightly more plus than that.
 
Havnt seen a line on fish/rays but I assume rays gotta be decent size favs. I dont really think alcontrera was much better his last start, the numbers look better but it was against the rox and the little bit I watched they missed a couple hangers they pulled foul, a couple sinkers right down the pipe, will be a especially bad problem vs rays lefties if he starts that sinker in and comes right back over the plate!! I could see playing rays tt over or some the lefties props in the top 4 of lineup. Rasmussen been pretty dang good and he went 6 scoreless vs fish last month, I assume we talking bout a 17.5 out total with some higher juice do the over. I think -170 is probably reasonable so If it lower than that def worth a play.
 
I really hope they put wacha at 17.5 outs, I’d pay -200 probably. Love he on 6 days rest, he has been fantastic his whole career w the extra day or 2, nobody on chisox has had success vs him, team exit velo avg way down in low 80s and nobody has higher than a 90mph. He shouldn’t have any problem pitching 6, I’d prob consider playing 18.5 with some plus but have to wait and see where they put it. I kinda like houser here also and I’d guess his out total more like 16.5, we see about that but the Ff under makes sense in this Game also.

Another thing I’d say is don’t get to excited bout kc, chisox continue to put up wins at home where they been surprisingly good winning 4 of their last 5 series at home including taking 2 of 3 vs tigers last series, don’t be shocked if they win another series here, kinda torn on if I want to bet them at this price but maybe kc takes some more money today and we get closer to +150, think that my number to play them here.
 
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Kinda shocked fish are taking money, are ppl really making something out of akcintera last start? Let’s remember it was against rox and as I said above they missed a lot of bad pitches I think the rays lefties will mash, just looked up lefty hitters vs him this year and I was not shocked to see they been teeing off to the tune of a .877 ops while the rest his career he been better vs righties he has held lefty hitters under a .700 ops. But he still isn’t right even if all his pitches are still being rated pretty strong, he always been kinda odd in the sense his stuff electric yet he more a pitch to contract guy, it allowed him to pitch incredibly deep into games, like marlins were trying to blow out his arm!! I didn’t really understand that after they signed him to a deal! That the marlins for ya tho! Now his swinging strike is way down so regardless what some things saying about his pitches he was missing location a lot the last game which really 1st time I’ve watched him. Think I already brought this up but if he leaves that sinker up or over the plate rays will tee off. Consider both Brandon and Josh Lowe collectively have 6 doubles in 25 at bats and both hitting well over .300 vs him at his best you gotta think this a tough ask for him. Aranda only has 3 at bats for him w a hit but again this not the same guy.

If I was fish I might consider doing that thing teams doing now and starting one their better lhp out the pen and let him go thru the top the lineup for a inning or maybe 2 depending on how he doing and how many lefties rays have at 4-5-6 in lineup. Then being alcantera in, i think this a really smart strategy I been seeing teams do with struggling starters lately. Rockies just did it last night and were able to squeeze 4 scoreless innings out of Senzatela garbage ass! They won’t do it which is good for us and playing rays hitter props, and either rays team total, or just lay it with rays if the number keeps coming down, rare fav I actually think I could bet! Or instead of laying the juice I could do me and be greedy and play a sgp w few those hitters!
 
So Alcantera pitching for fish today right? I forgot I saw weathers somewhere that why in
My -1st post i said “maybe k props on both pitchers” I was talking bout weathers who they usually put at 4.5 for some reason but everywhere else I’ve seen alcatera, i would understand line coming down if weathers was pitching instead. Let’s hope that it Sandy on the bump and rays knock the snot out of him, then weathers 2marro might have some value!
 
2daBank said:
So Alcantera pitching for fish today right? I forgot I saw weathers somewhere that why in
My -1st post i said “maybe k props on both pitchers” I was talking bout weathers who they usually put at 4.5 for some reason but everywhere else I’ve seen alcatera, i would understand line coming down if weathers was pitching instead. Let’s hope that it Sandy on the bump and rays knock the snot out of him, then weathers 2marro might have some value
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So looks like it is weathers, dunno why I kept seeing alcatara places? That explains line going down weathers a way tougher matchup for rays imo.
 
Wasted all that time looking at wrong pitcher matchup in Florida, pisses me off. Hopefully Alcatera goes 2marro so I didn’t waste it. Anyways the juice worth the squeeze here.

Weathers ov 4.5 k’s -162
 
Wacha ov 17.5 outs -135

I didn’t expect houser to be 17.5 w actually 5 more cents juice than wacha. That makes me want to play the Ff under I think. But for now

Kc/cws 1st inning un 2.5 h/r/e -134

Neither pitcher has given up a 1st inning run this year, obviously that more impressive w wacha and his 12 starts than Houser 3 starts. Wacha has only allowed 7 1st inning hits all year. Houser has given up 4 and his career 1st innings havnt been his strength but I believe kc usually struggles to score early and I like everything else bout houser today. For some reason BOL isn’t giving me yes/no for a run scored in 1st for this gm but I’m just as good w NRFI here also assuming the juice is no higher than this is.
 
My 1st thought was nrfi or the un 2.5 h/r/e in the hunter brown Gavin Williams matchup nut then I saw between the 2 of them they have allowed 13 1st inning runs, brown 7 and Williams 6 I believe, that a lot for starters of this caliber but the old saying get to these guys early or not at all. I’m super tempted to take the plus money on yes a run in 1st but I’m kinda chicken to play those!! lol
 
These pricks put Ranger Suarez at 18.5 total outs, can’t blame them but i gotta really love it to play a guy to go past 6 innings. Looking at maybe his k’s over 5.5
 
2daBank said:
Wasted all that time looking at wrong pitcher matchup in Florida, pisses me off. Hopefully Alcatera goes 2marro so I didn’t waste it. Anyways the juice worth the squeeze here.

Weathers ov 4.5 k’s -162
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Webb ov 5.5 k’s

Can’t argue with how amazing Webb has been, he been pretty great most his career but not he striking guys out at the highest clip of his career! Punching out over 10 per 9 innings. Even the 2 games I thought he was kinda shaky, looked like something was wrong and he didn’t pitch deep he still punched out a bunch of guys. Really can’t believe he not getting 6.5’s at this point; it not like Braves won’t swing and miss. I did say Braves have hit the ball pretty hard vs webb in the past but they he has also racked up 28k’s in 107 at bats and this was prior to this season where he striking out more than ever!!
 
I dunno what to do with cubs/tigers not knowing what pitcher is gonna follow holton. I like the way cubs shifted the lineup around a bit to where holton will potentially have to face Suzuki and Swanson in 1st inning and moved PCA back behind them so he could maybe see a rhp but also more likely to see the same pitcher his 1st 2 at bats at least as I assume whomever tigers Bring in to follow Holton be someone they hope gives them 3-4+ innings. Dont think they want it to be a situation they force trot out one guy after another starting so early so good adjustment by Cubs imo. Only problem is Dansby hasn’t been smashing lhp this year like in past and he been particularly horrible in day games, plus he annoys me, really wanted to like his h/r/rbi prop but can’t get behind it. Lol
 
2daBank said:
I dunno what to do with cubs/tigers not knowing what pitcher is gonna follow holton. I like the way cubs shifted the lineup around a bit to where holton will potentially have to face Suzuki and Swanson in 1st inning and moved PCA back behind them so he could maybe see a rhp but also more likely to see the same pitcher his 1st 2 at bats at least as I assume whomever tigers Bring in to follow Holton be someone they hope gives them 3-4+ innings. Dont think they want it to be a situation they force trot out one guy after another starting so early so good adjustment by Cubs imo. Only problem is Dansby hasn’t been smashing lhp this year like in past and he been particularly horrible in day games, plus he annoys me, really wanted to like his h/r/rbi prop but can’t get behind it. Lol
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On the other hand Suzuki mashing lhp and been tearing it up in day games as well.

Suzuki ov 1.5 tb +120
 
Paddack has a good change to neutralize lefties but this barger kid is just on fire right now and slugging everything he sees from righties!

Barger ov 1.5 tb +105
Barger 1+ run/rbi -129
 
Ranger Suarez ov 5.5 k’s +114

Not everything was perfect about this, forget what I didn’t like but at this price there was plenty to like. I think there a decent chance he racks this up just off volume of innings, he could go 7 vs pirates who really struggle v lhp, if he goes 7 I trust he gets 6 k’s, if he doesn’t go as deep I’d assume he throwing more pitches and possibly striking more guys out. His swinging strike ain’t been great but he freezes a lot of guys, he has punched out 6+ in 4 of 6 starts this year, and most notably pirates strike out like 30% the time vs lhp!! Also he had a few other starts last year vs this squad and hit 6+ k’s in them all. Getting +114 it doesn’t leave a whole lot to be desired.
 
It looks like they should play the lad/stl game, it could be a little wet but nothing they won’t play thru I think, not sure how that will effect either pitcher so just gonna leave it alone. Really wanted to play lad team total over and Ohtani props but think I have enough plays.
 
Only thing for the night games right now:

Alonso 3+ total bases. 4+ total bases, 5+ total bases.

Alonso 2+ runs/rbi, 3+ runs/rbi

Mets ov 6.5 team total

What the hell, little wheel of plus money on Alonso facing a lhp that has struggled at coors. I thought Mets could be fiat last night and they left a lot of runners all over the bases and Rox almost clipped them, think the offense will come to life against a pitcher they got 4 runs and ran from the game before the 5th last time out at citi field.,you really can’t expect it to get better for him at coors can we? And I doubt the pen holds up as well potentially having to cover 4+ innings. Oh and Alonso took him deep in that game also!
 
It sucks a few more of these not sooner: im bored as shit right now but when the 3 o’clock games start I gotta go to nephews graduation party. Can’t mow the back yard cause it too fucking wet, I did good deal of cleaning yesterday, guess I could do more of packing up Theresa stuff but that depresses the shit out of me, rather not do that to myself before having to go out and mingle with ppl. What’s a mfer to do? Twiddle my thumbs or keep looking for more bets?
 
bulldogs said:
Welcome back full time
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Thanks bud. Took a few days but have kinda got it rolling as the week has went on. Really the only thing that was costing me was playin to many hitter props which I played several today, lol. That never been my strength, pitchers and finding value in dogs is what usually makes my seasons. Piggy backing some your pirates unders hasn’t hurt either, I like those plays ya can find where you don’t really gotta cap them just jump on them early to get best number!!
 
Guess I played a lot of props today cause I couldn’t find many dogs I liked.

I don’t think chisox ml a bad play I just woulda preferred little more plus money but I guess books taking notice that they winning home series!

Pads as small dogs I think could be playable.

I don’t think this the night for Rockies that why trying to get plus money with Alonso props.

Maybe I could be talked into the fish, if they gonna win a game this series I think this for sure be the 1, marlins have actually hit the ball pretty hard vs Taj in limited at bats and I like weathers matchup vs rays. I’ve already made it clear how I feel about 2marro game, think they gas alcatera up, I feel bad for him, really feel bad cards traded him but something just isn’t right w him, marlins being the losers they are pitched him into the ground even after he signed a team friendly deal! I figured at one point they assumed they wernt gonna be able to sign him so it made sense to push him an inning past when they shoulda took him out every start! Why they continued to do so after he signed I have no clue?? Don’t get me wrong im a huge fan of pitchers that take pride in doing deep into games, they few and far between these days, far more common to see guys like snell, cease, strider who think they should get a pat on the back anytime they make it thru 6 innings!! But damn they were pushing Sandy out there in 8th and 9th when he was already over 100 pitches, not like they did it in the playoffs, they did it all season like their manager was the tibs of the mlb!! I believe he got a solid 18 months off after the TJ and I think that bout when you see guys back to their best, Sandy is not close to at his best, maybe they ruined him?
 
askias said:
No time for my own capping, so just tailing you today 2. GL to us.
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Man I wish it was a day with more sides and few less props. I feel good bout the pitchers and totals, I like the hitters and I did have a solid day last time I played this many I’m just not as confident wit the hitters. Tell me you got on Suzuki so we at least started w a nice +120 in the books?
 
Missed Suzuki unfortunately. Running around all day today and no time even to log in and check lines. Grabbed the Weathers K’s real quick, and then went NRSI with CWS and then on my own went under 4.5 Elder K’s with the Braves.
 
bulldogs said:
Played

bost +103

pgh und 8.5

cleve und 7

wsx und 8

kc nr 1st inn
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What was the price on the nrfi? BOL didn’t have it up this morning they only had the u2.5 h/r/e 1st inning so I played that instead, I kinda like those but this one I might have been happier just the no run but this was already -134 and I assumed it was gonna get bet higher by time they posted it. Bol still doesn’t have the nrfi option in that game, kinda odd they always have them.
 
askias said:
Missed Suzuki unfortunately. Running around all day today and no time even to log in and check lines. Grabbed the Weathers K’s real quick, and then went NRSI with CWS and then on my own went under 4.5 Elder K’s with the Braves.
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Sounds like me yesterday, I kept missing start times and plays. Prob cost myself a few Hundo. Just glad the pirates total pushed cause I got that in, then cashed the giants in extras so at least I had a winning day. Woulda been pissed had I missed those other winners and lost money!
 
Im not blindly playing the kc nrfi like I have kinda been pirates unders. The cap looked strong for kc today so thought I’d try. Just be careful w those cause I remember when guys started posting those year or 2 back the juice started getting high and it seemed like at some point teams that were cashing those at a high clip kinda slowed down and wernt casing as frequently as the juice required. Just don’t dig in to hard if they do get pricey and they start scoring more often.
 
I do really like this strategy some teams been using with not exactly an opener but starting one their good lhp out the pen against teams with strong lefties at top the lineup and using a starter that been struggling behind him. It gives that used to be starter a big advantage to not have to show the lefties all his pitches in 1st at bat, then they have to see a completely different pitcher their 2nd at bat which makes it much more difficult to hit imo, gets these kinda crappy starters into the 5th or 6th and only facing lineup 2x and far as I can tell it has worked pretty well. As I say that montero gives up a blast but cubs were smart enough to shift the order around a bit so few the lefties got to see montero their 1st at bat. 1st time I’ve seen the opposing manager do that with his lineup and think you almost have to, why wouldn’t you counter what they trying to do? I like anything that brings a little more strategy back into the game since we have taken so much out of it!
 
2daBank said:
What was the price on the nrfi? BOL didn’t have it up this morning they only had the u2.5 h/r/e 1st inning so I played that instead, I kinda like those but this one I might have been happier just the no run but this was already -134 and I assumed it was gonna get bet higher by time they posted it. Bol still doesn’t have the nrfi option in that game, kinda odd they always have them.
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-130
 
Man I still got a few hours to kill before going to my brothers and bored, I don’t think I wanna play any more stuff tho and if i keep looking im sure I can talk myself into! Seriously close to playing fish,, lol.

It be great if I could take nap I didn’t hardly sleep my dog was bugging me all night!! But now im starting to get that manic feeling I get when I come out of depression!! That’s good I much prefer manic and this long as I ever been depressed since it was triggered by life events not just my minor bipolar-ness, lol. Anyways maybe I get a nice buzz at my brothers and sleep a bit tonight.
 
Anyone got a horse for the Belmont today? I havnt capped the ponies in so long and I was never really all that good at it so wasn’t gonna bother but I’ll play a longshot or a trifecta if somebody got one they like!
 
What do you think about Crochet tonight 2? Might do both K’s and outs there. Trying to wait to see what the afternoon action is like first.
 
askias said:
What do you think about Crochet tonight 2? Might do both K’s and outs there. Trying to wait to see what the afternoon action is like first.
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Honestly I felt like I had enough plays and knew I was gonna be out this evening so I really didn’t look super close at that game. My theory with yanks/Red Sox used to be just play the overs and don’t bother capping cause the craziest shit happens when these 2 play! I dunno how well that has held up over the years I can’t remember if I was still doing that last year or not? Been a long year for me, lol. But in all seriousness we know baseball a crazy game day to day and I’ve always felt this series w these teams you never could logically figure out what to expect going way back to when Sox came back from 0-3 to go to WS and smash my cardinals!
 
How bout that: I thought for sure my props were gonna start going down the shitter w Bargar, I get out of shower and he not only doubled to cash total bases but then springer hit a bomb to drive him home and cash ov 1 run/rbi, plus it put jays back in lead! Can we have just one day w a big card that sweeps?!??? This would probably be the day cause I didn’t play any 6-7-8 team lotto tickets today, I just misssed one the night of nba gm1, I mixed 4 bases with 3 nba props but harkenstien scored that one bucket in 4th after having 7 in 5 min of 1st, I had under 7.5 and damn it was close! Woulda paid huge. So today no big long shot parlays so this be the time I did sweep, lol. I’d still happily take it tho, plenty of cashing if they all hit! Only 3 plays in books long long way to go!
 
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