June 6 Discussion Thread

askias

askias

Where Is Marquette‘s Firepower?
Skubal strikeouts jump off the page. Also if the Marlins are going to be swept by the Rockies, then looking at the Rays for today.
 
I didn’t even realize there was a day game in Florida, strange for a Friday. I wasn’t in any hurry to look at card just been watching the French open.
 
Super tempted to blindly play the Rockies tonight 🤪 I mean it’s kinda house money after cashing the last 2 in Miami. I don’t like looking at it that way as it now my money and not responsible but man +250ish has a nice ring to it!! I think these kids got a taste for winning and like it! Mets coming off 2 big series against yanks and dodgers it be real easy for them to have a letdown here. Not saying I think Rockies sweep or anything crazy but think they might be able to catch Mets slipping in one these games!!

Im a huge Senga fan since day 1, we cashed a ton of k props on him right at start his mlb career til they figured out how to line him, now days they usually post tough numbers and ya never really know how his control will be although adding that cutter seemed to help his control when he can’t get the fastball over. He has never pitched in Coors, I have no clue how that ghost forkball will move in the thin air? A guy that known to sometimes be a bit wild certainly has the potential to get blown up at Coors! Even w the walks senga hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs in any start, he has only allowed 3 one time, 2 runs in three games, that leaves 7 games he has allowed 1 or 0 runs!! That is elite type stuff! Even at coors it might be too much to ask for this lineup to be the 1st team to crack 3+ runs! It would have to be a case that the ghost forkball doesn’t move the way he expects and either hangs up in strike zone or is off the plate enough to take. The question is +250 good enough odds that might happen? I kinda think it might be but of course we still have to worry about what kind of number mets hang against the rox pitchers!

And there lies the problem for tonight, Senzentela faced the Mets in New York his last start, I think Citi field plays pretty fair for pitchers and he got crushed for 7 runs in 4 innings, what gonna happen to him back at Coors where his awful era is almost a run higher than on the road! This is a big big problem, im not confident Mets have such a letdown that they can’t knock the a or out of this guy! They could be coming in with a bad taste how they gave the last game away in lad! Could be a really bad situation for a guy who best efforts this year have been holding teams to 4 freaking runs!! And he is probably averaging around 4.1 innings a start! Not exactly the kind of guy you want to back at any number.

Unfortunately Im not sure there any the traditional ways we could fade senga props in his 1st start at coors cause the Rockies offense is far from reliable. Maybe we could look at the 1st 5 or game over? They have senga at 1.5 walks but the over carrying ton of juice, I wouldn’t be opposed to taking that up to over 2.5 walks for plus money. He averages about 2.5 walks a start and that was after a april where he walked 1 in his 1dt game and then only 2 walks a game in every other start of the month, once the calendar flipped to May he has been much more speratic walking just over 3 per start, this his 2nd straight start vs Rox as well, he pitched 6.1 innings giving up 2 runs and walking 2 w 7k’s at citi field. I do believe seeing him a second straight start is an advantage for Rox. I do believe it makes sense to at least expect 1 extra walk and 1 extra run with little less efficiency at coors. So over 2.5 walks win or lose I think a solid play, Think I prefer the walks to over 2.5 runs and 2.5 walks pays better actually. That kinda crazy.
 
Think I’ve talked myself off the Rockies ledge but does anyone see a problem with the over walks on senga? Over 1.5 would be a fantastic parlay partner as you gotta assume 2 walks is almost a given with him, and 3 is far from crazy!
 
Another 9 total in Pittsburg! Now I didn’t much care who the starting pitchers were in the Stros series but Philly offense is a totally different animal than Stros and I don’t think Philly pen is nearly as good the Stros. It still pretty hard not to just blindly play this but have the feeling I should cap this one! I feel dumb when I pass and it hits but see no reason why we can’t just lean that way and make sure it a solid play before diving in! Thoughts? Should we cap or blindly play under 9 which a crazy high number in this park with this team against anyone! Philly offense hasn’t exactly been hot lately.
 
I have no problem thinking Ross can give us a good effort but he hasn’t been starting so how long can he go? He had a 5 inning 2 runs allowed effort vs pirates last year and had he been starting recently that exactly the line I would give him here, prob add another run allowed by the pen? If I thought he could go at least 3 innings his over 1.5 k’s seems easy but he very well could be 1-2 innings and done.

Falter has been really good the last month or so but his splits vs lefties a little scary against Philly, He did have a 5 inning 1 run game at Philly last year. Pitt a much more friendly pitcher park but several hard hit balls by Philly so possibly a bit of luck. With Philly not firing on all cylinders right now I think he can go 5 +
And keep them to 3 runs or so. Can pirates pen keep the scoring down for 3-4 innings? Like I said 9 a big damn number, i think we continue riding the under wave!
 
FYI that the Rockies scratched Senzatela and are going with a bullpen game if that affects your cap. Going with Soroka strikeouts against the light swinging Rangers.
 
askias said:
FYI that the Rockies scratched Senzatela and are going with a bullpen game if that affects your cap. Going with Soroka strikeouts against the light swinging Rangers.
Click to expand...

It certainly doesn’t hurt rox imo, dammit now you gonna have me thinking bout Rox again! Lol. Think I’m happy with senga over walks. Rockies pen hasn’t been bad recently but think that mostly away from Coors. I don’t know where to get a pen as a group home/away splits, I could look player by player but I ain’t got that kinda time and I dunno how they doing it? Like yesterday cubs made if known it be Pomeranz for inning or 2 then Rea was gonna do the heavy lifting in middle innings, i liked that idea as it gave them a good 1st inning against Nats best 2 lefty bats and then it also kept them from seeing same pitcher for multiple at bats which obviously makes it tougher on hitter. You remember what Japan did to USA in the world classic thing a year or 2 back? They used a different pitcher for practically every inning and they all had those nasty splitters and cranking up mid to high 90s heat not having to worry bout pitch count. Totally shut down that USA lineup! I knew they were doing it why I played and posted Japan at plus money (I think it was maybe +110-120 at most) to win that game. I’d seen most those pitchers make starts vs other teams and knew they were all filthy, unfortunately Rox pen looks nothing like that! Lol. It’s kinda why I knew to bet senga k props right at start his career cause he was considered one the best pitchers over their and I saw all the quality pitchers they had!
 
@askias you happen to see if they announced who would follow Rolison? Recently I’ve seen teams do this where they put the original starter in after the pen guy got thru an inning or 2.
 
Wow. Mets opened -300 and it steadily been going down, mentioned the other day I did not like being on the side of a move over 20 cents and sure enough that was Phillies opening -150 vs jays and ended up only being -120 or so so naturally Phillies won! So clearly and surprisingly Rox taking money which makes me less inclined to play them.
 
I’m not finna worry bout all these damn east coast games that appear to be having rain and delays. Already played the under in Pitt but that the only thing I’m dealing with
 
2daBank said:
Another 9 total in Pittsburg! Now I didn’t much care who the starting pitchers were in the Stros series but Philly offense is a totally different animal than Stros and I don’t think Philly pen is nearly as good the Stros. It still pretty hard not to just blindly play this but have the feeling I should cap this one! I feel dumb when I pass and it hits but see no reason why we can’t just lean that way and make sure it a solid play before diving in! Thoughts? Should we cap or blindly play under 9 which a crazy high number in this park with this team against anyone! Philly offense hasn’t exactly been hot lately.
Click to expand...
I JUST BLINDLY PLAY IT EVERY MORNING
 
2daBank said:
@askias you happen to see if they announced who would follow Rolison? Recently I’ve seen teams do this where they put the original starter in after the pen guy got thru an inning or 2.
Click to expand...
I have not 2, but will be following it live. Soroka strikeouts working out nicely. Also got the NRFI with Skubal, went with that over strikeouts.
 
askias said:
I have not 2, but will be following it live. Soroka strikeouts working out nicely. Also got the NRFI with Skubal, went with that over strikeouts.
Click to expand...

Yea his k’s was a tough number. Not sure what I want tho? Last week I chickened out cause I thought they were setting ppl up with that 6.5 and just kept juicing it higher, but he still got 7. This week they put it at 7.5 and I say “damn that tough”, I guess they doing a good job lining him cause they keep me off a lot his starts!! lol. I had brown k’s wrote down actually and just seeing he cruised past that, I been doing work around the house and lost track of time so really don’t have anything bet, so of course brown k’s cashes easy!
 
I had no freaking clue it was 7:30! If anyone waiting on cards game I have no clue if it get played, it has looked all
Day on radar like it was almost over but then new little storms just pop up right on us. Nothing bad just bunch of rain
 
And they calling for rain 2marro also here. That really sucks it my nephews graduation party, I really didn’t want to go anyways but I can’t miss that and my brother guilted me into a firm yes, I couldn’t say no I missed a lot their stuff last year taking care of Theresa. They understand of course but she gone now and while it sucks I can’t be bailing on only ppl who care bout me! Lol. Anyways point being he has nice back yard a pool and games and shit, but if it all raining and sucks like it has most this week we all gonna be crammed in house! Not like my house there room but it will still blow w lot my sister in law family there and not much to do besides “talk”‘and drink of course! Would be a lot more better if the rain went away and we could play bags, spike ball, chill in pool. Fucking June has been spring here last several years, stupid cause then it still hot as balls all thru sept and sometimes October!
 
Damn. Brown k’s cashed, Ross went over his 1.5 k’s in just 2 innings, I was wavering on him so hard to say if I really would have played cause I figured he only had 2-3 innings. Of course the plan I had at start of Week to play judge over 2.5 h/r/rbi every day cashes and I didn’t get that in either. Just realized the Mets/rickies started so I missed the semga plays also, that one might work in my favor as senga has no walks as of yet which isn’t normal, apparently he likes the thin air? Or Rockies are just that bad! Lol. I see the Rockies did do what I was afraid of @askias , after the pen guy pitched a inning to nuatralize the lefties at top the lineup they when went to Senzatela to take over the middle innings, might be a good time to get on a live Mets total as he most likely a pending explosion! He already at 40 pitches and hasn’t made it 2 innings yet.

I actually think this a good strategy teams are doing to help struggling starters, especially if a team is stacked w a few tough lefties at top of lineup, you start one your lhp that can get 3 outs or 6 if the team has a lot of lefties in lineup. Then you bring the struggling starter in and he can pitch potentially to the 5th before teams see him
A second time which often where the damage gets done.
 
Maybe I can find a west coast win.

Why in gods name are the Braves -149 at San Fran? After the giants were -150 2 games vs pads. Something is way out of whack here!! We know whomever giants have start will keep them in the game 80% the time! Giants pen is clearly better than the Braves and unlike the Braves the giants win games. What the fucj ever, give me

Giants ml +127
 
Odds will be different everywhere but the main HR guy at Action took these tonight. I do like Sacramento for bombs!

Brent Rooker (+475) bet 365​

vs Orioles (SP: RHP Dean Kremer)

I'm going heavy on A's hitters tonight.

Orioles starter Dean Kremer has been a plus matchup for power to both sides of the plate, with a career 40% fly-ball rate.

Sutter Health Park is one of the best in the majors for HRs, and the weather should be near perfect, with temps in the high-80s and wind blowing out at 10 mph.

I have the true odds here around +300, making this a good bet.

Jacob Wilson (+850) DraftKings​

vs Orioles (SP: RHP Dean Kremer)

Jacob Wilson isn't a huge power guy, but that isn't stopping him from hitting bombs this season — he has eight so far.

I have the true odds here more than 100 points lower, making this a great bet.

Ronald Acuna Jr. (+475) Bet MGM​

at Giants (SP: RHP Hayden Birdsong)

I hate this ballpark for Ronald Acuna Jr., but the matchup and odds are too good to pass up.

Giants starter Hayden Birdsong has been a big plus matchup for righty power in his career, allowing 1.60 HR/9 despite playing in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the league.

Acuna is one of the best power hitters in the league, and these odds are just far too high.


​

 
Birdsong has only given up 4 home runs in 38 innings so I think it a stretch to say he great to play righties against in that park.
 
Damn. Rockies 1st 5 ml cashed: that was my thought when I learned they were going with the lefty for 1 inning than sensatela but I been busy as shit and didn’t know that how they were gonna play it. Oh well
 
im gonna be really pissed If Rockies win this game and I didn’t bet. Already accidentally missed playing 3 props that cashed.
 
Cmon giants jump all over these fuckers! After the 4 game battle giants had with pads I feel like they way more ready to win this series. No clue why Braves were such big favs or favs at all honestly? I know their pitcher been really good but every starter giants throws out keeps them in games and their pen usually really good giving them a chance to win. This shoulda been way closer to pick, hell I could argue giants shoulda been favs but we see what happens.
 
Braves still hung over from yesterday’s choke job, 2 errors in 1st inning, now we need to get more than 2 runs here giants! A 2 out hit be huge!!
 
Senga trying to walk his 3rd before he gets pulled from game but this idiot Doyle has swung at a bunch of pitches out the zone and still in a 3-2 count, not sure any the pitches he swung at and fouled off were strikes. I guess that why he only has 18 walks all year
 
And the loser lets sengq out of it. So at least I didn’t play the over 2.5 walks but he did walk 2 so the over 1.5 woulda been good in parlay. And Rox still winning. Im torn here. I like to be right but im so pissed off I didn’t bet them. This been a weird day and I missed starts of every game until betting giants! I guess if giants win 1-0 +130 a ok day, woulda been nice to have that better than 2-1 on rox! The judge prop and brown k’s. Ugh
 
Giants have 2 men on again in 2md! They could really blow this game open and put Braves away fast,, Braves not in a good place I feel like every day giants jump on them early they gonna be thinking “here we go again!””
 
Spoke to soon, fucking double play let’s Braves pitcher off the hook. Fucjing Chapman, he the reason this game is only 3-0, both times he came up with men on and did nothing.
 
KJ said:
Odds will be different everywhere but the main HR guy at Action took these tonight. I do like Sacramento for bombs!

Brent Rooker (+475) bet 365​

vs Orioles (SP: RHP Dean Kremer)

I'm going heavy on A's hitters tonight.

Orioles starter Dean Kremer has been a plus matchup for power to both sides of the plate, with a career 40% fly-ball rate.

Sutter Health Park is one of the best in the majors for HRs, and the weather should be near perfect, with temps in the high-80s and wind blowing out at 10 mph.

I have the true odds here around +300, making this a good bet.

Jacob Wilson (+850) DraftKings​

vs Orioles (SP: RHP Dean Kremer)

Jacob Wilson isn't a huge power guy, but that isn't stopping him from hitting bombs this season — he has eight so far.

I have the true odds here more than 100 points lower, making this a great bet.

Ronald Acuna Jr. (+475) Bet MGM​

at Giants (SP: RHP Hayden Birdsong)

I hate this ballpark for Ronald Acuna Jr., but the matchup and odds are too good to pass up.

Giants starter Hayden Birdsong has been a big plus matchup for righty power in his career, allowing 1.60 HR/9 despite playing in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the league.

Acuna is one of the best power hitters in the league, and these odds are just far too high.


​

Click to expand...

I like to do 2-3-4-5 teamers with home runs for just a few bucks they pay huge but I never hit! I don’t play them every day or anything, I can’t remember last time I hit one, I think I got one last year with 3 guys. You should see the garbage odds they give on home runs on that underdog fantasy crap. You know what other shady bitch shit they do? They say something pays 5-1 or whatever but they couldn’t your bet as part rhe payout which any idiot who understands anything knows that means it only 4-1!! It’s fucking hilarious Missouri lets these crooks operate and say it not gambling but the books still can’t!! How if at the bottom of page it has the “gambling problem call 1-800-no discipline!” But it not sports gambling somehow?!?!?? Jfc I hate Missouri.

I suppose if you most ppl playing the underdog site you doing 5-6-7 players for a few bucks to pay a lot so it doesn’t really matter they cheating you on the odds but you basically can’t play 2 teamers with 50-100 dollar bets with the way they cheating the payouts! I was hoping it be a good alternative for me but the 1st time I hit a $20 3 teamer that supposed to be 6-1 and I realized it was only 5-1 I cashed out most the money. I’ll do some the goffy lotto ticket ones with 5-10 bucks a day but I’m not cool with the way they cheating the odds
 
Fucking birdsong was cruising right along and just walked the bases loaded with no damn outs! Fuck, how he finna get out of this. And why he start walking ppl? Make them Beat you don’t hand it to them!
 
Ok, if we get out of here with only 1 run I’ll be happy. Not happy he walked the bases loaded but if he can escape with just 1 run it a huge win.
 
Had Harris in 0-2 hole and let him get a hit. Rather he walked them back loaded and pitched to this Allen cat
 
Yep he shoulda walked Harris since he walking everyone else and got the Allen kid out who can’t hit shit. I guess it only fair we hand Braves a few fee runs since Braves handed out 2 of their own.
 
Rockies have a chance to bury Mets right here!! @KJ you realize rox been cashing plus money tickets left and right since you proclaimed no value betting them! Oh man, bases juiceed and mcmahon hit a screamer right at 3rd baseman! Bad luck there for Rox, need a 2 out hit!
 
Not only the line drive out but the guy on 3rd got doubled off. What a disaster for Rox. Not sure why the guy on 3rd was moving? If that ball gets by he walks in.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top