Odds
June 5 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Good day by everyone yesterday let’s keep this train moving.. I havnt capped anything yet needed some sleep, eyes still tired so not gonna do numbers yet just woke up and felt like jotting down some initial thoughts.
I really don’t understand how they lining the snakes/braves, kinda mad at myself I stayed off zona yesterday but I was worried bout the weather and had enough plays. I really don’t need to cap this to say the price is stupid, it just like how they have lined the pads/giants series and I’ve had that pegged w the dog winning every game! there no way atl should be that big of favs so it either like snakes or pass, im not sure if ill want to back pfaddt or not til I dig in but that the only side to play.
Not sure why tigers pushed my guy Mize back a day but his total outs long as not more than 17.5 w reasonable juice is where I’ll look 1st, after that it prob be Tigers Ff-.5 or -1.5 for game the only way I see playing it. Maybe hitter props depending on matchups.
Kc/stl suppose to play 2, have to wait for lineups but long as the day off didn’t mess anyone up I think we continue to see runs this series. Also have to check weather, last I heard they calling for rain every day this week.
I’m a huge Luzardo fan but his last 2 starts have been odd. Against A’s he gives up 3 in the 1st inning but then he dominates the next 5 innings and strikes out a bunch as you would expect. Last time out he gave up a bunch in the 1st again, started to look similar to the A’s game but it all fell apart in the 4th and brewers knocked the snot out of him. Jays have hit lhp this year but they couldn’t hit Sanchez in game 1 of series, one thing a lefty does is take barger out of lineup. I’d think Philly hits Bassitt but have to look closer and try to figure out wtf is causing Luzardo problems? Just a thought but might wanna look at yes to scoring 1st inning and the Ff over.
I recall I liked playing this Festa kid for twins k props last year when he 1st came up but forgot all bout him, don’t remember what his season ended up looking like and just noticed he back from minors now, not sure why he was sent down or any his situation I just slightly recall him being undervalued when I 1st started seeing his stuff. I’m really bummed the A’s fell off a cliff, I was high on them coming into the year and the 1st month or so they were a great bet getting good value but these guys been worse than Rockies and totally un-bet-able the last month+, don’t see a price here but thinking maybe they undervalue Festa?
Here we go in San Fran again, now pads are dogs again? I guess they were smart enough to at least make it a small number not the crazy -150s they hung the 1st 2 games. Nothing against Ray but like I been saying all series I think they placing to much importance on the starting pitcher names and every one these games has come down to the pens!! I think you gotta assume whomever each these teams starts is gonna pitch well enough to keep them in the game, overall I think pads the better team but it close as every one these games been so obviously you take the plus money or don’t play it.
Feel like the dodgers bats are kinda due to smack someone around, Peterson has been really good so I have to look at the matchups here but just expect lad hangs a big number on someone sooner than later.
Another low scoring affair in Pittsburgh seems kinda obvious, why stop now w way better pitchers going here?
Most likely some hitter props or nothing in the cubs/Nats game? Cubs going pomeranz for an inning or 2 I’d assume then I read Rea prob get bulk of the middle innings, that strategy could be effective vs Nats but have to look closer. Not sure what kinda line I’d put on Irvin without actually capping this one.
Holy hell the yanks are expensive! Yes fried has been great and not saying I’m fading them, there just no way I’m laying that kind of number against a competitive cle team starting pitcher matchup be damned.
9 in Tampa feels high at 1st glance but rays offense might be a tough matchup for Leiter? 36 k’s to 23 walks in 46 innings doesn’t exactly scream 3.66 era he sporting. I’m never real sure bout Pepiot but I would think he be ok vs soft hitting rangers lineup.
If they able to get the 2nd game played in stl Ragans v Liberatore should be a heck a pitching matchup.
That bout all I got at the moment. I’m gonna try and sleep a few more hours before actually capping these things. Hopefully by then some you guys have did some work! Lol.
I really don’t understand how they lining the snakes/braves, kinda mad at myself I stayed off zona yesterday but I was worried bout the weather and had enough plays. I really don’t need to cap this to say the price is stupid, it just like how they have lined the pads/giants series and I’ve had that pegged w the dog winning every game! there no way atl should be that big of favs so it either like snakes or pass, im not sure if ill want to back pfaddt or not til I dig in but that the only side to play.
Not sure why tigers pushed my guy Mize back a day but his total outs long as not more than 17.5 w reasonable juice is where I’ll look 1st, after that it prob be Tigers Ff-.5 or -1.5 for game the only way I see playing it. Maybe hitter props depending on matchups.
Kc/stl suppose to play 2, have to wait for lineups but long as the day off didn’t mess anyone up I think we continue to see runs this series. Also have to check weather, last I heard they calling for rain every day this week.
I’m a huge Luzardo fan but his last 2 starts have been odd. Against A’s he gives up 3 in the 1st inning but then he dominates the next 5 innings and strikes out a bunch as you would expect. Last time out he gave up a bunch in the 1st again, started to look similar to the A’s game but it all fell apart in the 4th and brewers knocked the snot out of him. Jays have hit lhp this year but they couldn’t hit Sanchez in game 1 of series, one thing a lefty does is take barger out of lineup. I’d think Philly hits Bassitt but have to look closer and try to figure out wtf is causing Luzardo problems? Just a thought but might wanna look at yes to scoring 1st inning and the Ff over.
I recall I liked playing this Festa kid for twins k props last year when he 1st came up but forgot all bout him, don’t remember what his season ended up looking like and just noticed he back from minors now, not sure why he was sent down or any his situation I just slightly recall him being undervalued when I 1st started seeing his stuff. I’m really bummed the A’s fell off a cliff, I was high on them coming into the year and the 1st month or so they were a great bet getting good value but these guys been worse than Rockies and totally un-bet-able the last month+, don’t see a price here but thinking maybe they undervalue Festa?
Here we go in San Fran again, now pads are dogs again? I guess they were smart enough to at least make it a small number not the crazy -150s they hung the 1st 2 games. Nothing against Ray but like I been saying all series I think they placing to much importance on the starting pitcher names and every one these games has come down to the pens!! I think you gotta assume whomever each these teams starts is gonna pitch well enough to keep them in the game, overall I think pads the better team but it close as every one these games been so obviously you take the plus money or don’t play it.
Feel like the dodgers bats are kinda due to smack someone around, Peterson has been really good so I have to look at the matchups here but just expect lad hangs a big number on someone sooner than later.
Another low scoring affair in Pittsburgh seems kinda obvious, why stop now w way better pitchers going here?
Most likely some hitter props or nothing in the cubs/Nats game? Cubs going pomeranz for an inning or 2 I’d assume then I read Rea prob get bulk of the middle innings, that strategy could be effective vs Nats but have to look closer. Not sure what kinda line I’d put on Irvin without actually capping this one.
Holy hell the yanks are expensive! Yes fried has been great and not saying I’m fading them, there just no way I’m laying that kind of number against a competitive cle team starting pitcher matchup be damned.
9 in Tampa feels high at 1st glance but rays offense might be a tough matchup for Leiter? 36 k’s to 23 walks in 46 innings doesn’t exactly scream 3.66 era he sporting. I’m never real sure bout Pepiot but I would think he be ok vs soft hitting rangers lineup.
If they able to get the 2nd game played in stl Ragans v Liberatore should be a heck a pitching matchup.
That bout all I got at the moment. I’m gonna try and sleep a few more hours before actually capping these things. Hopefully by then some you guys have did some work! Lol.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I pretty much have to at this point don’t I? Lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Just getting ready to start looking but I kinda assumed Philly prob hits Bassitt well then I saw in @VirginiaCavs thread they have a pretty good collective slug vs him. I’ll prob play a few guys and something w the total.
FF total at 4, I was expecting 4.5
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Not sure wtf going on w pfaadt this year? Last start might have been the one the worst I’ve ever seen, 8 runs and he couldn’t get 1 stinking out? He too young to be falling off he hasn’t even peaked yet I don’t think! His k per 9 and swinging strike rate way down. He does have some things going for him today, he been way better on 4 days rest his whole career, he been better in day games, he been pretty good vs atl even tho Braves collective avg and slug don’t look great for him. 15.5 outs or 4.5 k’s I think both attainable, not sure if one better than the other, if he gets thru 5+ I think he most likely gets 5 k’s. Baldwin and Verdego have both hit the ball really hard vs him.
Snakes got all over Holmes in zona earlier this year but as a team they havnt hit him much, that was the Suarez 4 bomb game I believe. Suarez props anyone? Lol. Or will Holmes be a lot more careful against him now? It’s a shame Suarez doesn’t take many walks cause it would make sense he got walked at least one time today. I still think Braves are overpriced, maybe snakes ml is better than props here? Holmes has been way better at home and in day games as well. Tough to say here, kinda like under 9 and snakes ml,
Snakes got all over Holmes in zona earlier this year but as a team they havnt hit him much, that was the Suarez 4 bomb game I believe. Suarez props anyone? Lol. Or will Holmes be a lot more careful against him now? It’s a shame Suarez doesn’t take many walks cause it would make sense he got walked at least one time today. I still think Braves are overpriced, maybe snakes ml is better than props here? Holmes has been way better at home and in day games as well. Tough to say here, kinda like under 9 and snakes ml,
2daBank
Voice of Reason
All in that one game he hit 4 earlier this year! Was just posting bout it,
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Think I gotta roll with the under, I think situationally favors both pitchers, I’m still pretty confident Pfaadt is better than he has shown and off what gotta be one his lowest points I’m gonna assume he not hurt and bounces back. Throw out Suarez and nobody on snakes has really had success vs Holmes and he much better day/home. I’ll start the day with
Snakes/braves u9
Snakes/braves u9
2daBank
Voice of Reason
So 3 weeks ago Mikolas v Cameron is a 1-0 pitching duel I wouldn’t believe if I didn’t see the box score! I’m really not sure wtf to make of the Cameron kid? I’m not sure his stuff says he the freaking dominant pitcher he been, is it possible it just takes the league seeing him a time or 2? Cards getting a second crack at him I really don’t think he continues going 6+ and barely giving up anything! It’s kinda insane the gems Mikolas has posted vs kc considering they have 4-5 guys that have hit the ball really hard vs him. I’m not quick to buy into analytics beating up pitchers who don’t strike guys out and know how to pitch but I’m also not crazy enough to believe with all that hard contact he can keep throwing gems vs these guys! I honestly think game 2 has way more potential to be the pitchers duel and I kinda think they put that 8.5 out there inviting under money but I dunno if I got the guts for over? That is absolutely the way I lean here but it not an easy sell.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I like the fact even tho I assume under is popular in stl a lot the books holding at 8.5 and just charging ppl juice. Can both teams get to 4? I’m not sure, if cards let the Cameron kid go 6 quality innings again I think they toast, they need to see some of kc pen before the back end who will probably mow them down. Mikolas has been up and down year to year in day starts so I’m not sure if he likes pitching in day or if it more circumstantial? Facing the right teams or maybe having shadow help? Beats the hell out of me, I don’t really like double headers anyways so maybe this just a pass for me.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Gotta say both pitchers out totals being 16.5 I think speaks to what I’m kinda thinking here. Who is jumping to play either these guys under that total considering Cameron has pitched into 7th every damn start of his career and Mikolas has put up a bunch of 6+ inning starts vs kc?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Seems reasonable on the surface. Little hard for me to wrap my head around needing 4 guys to pay +250 but that the way it is these days.
slim5150
Freelance Gynecologist
Not sure why line has dropped about 20 cents on the tigers. Are folks really backing the white sox with burke against Mize? Puzzling. Splits dont favor that, imo. I want to like the doggie here but i just dont see it.
Maybe its burke's splits against lefties Which would limit carpenter and mckinstry. But that leaves plenty of possibilities for gleybar, torkelson and baez. Limited times the tigers have seen burke also.
And who will produce runs for The white sox. I just dont get it and glad its not a play
Maybe its burke's splits against lefties Which would limit carpenter and mckinstry. But that leaves plenty of possibilities for gleybar, torkelson and baez. Limited times the tigers have seen burke also.
And who will produce runs for The white sox. I just dont get it and glad its not a play
slim5150
Freelance Gynecologist
BIchette and schwarber togeyher are about even money. Jacob wilson is like -375. Hes been on a decent streak for Oak.
Bichette, schwarber and gleybar are +177
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Not sure why line has dropped about 20 cents on the tigers. Are folks really backing the white sox with burke against Mize? Puzzling. Splits dont favor that, imo. I want to like the doggie here but i just dont see it.
Maybe its burke's splits against lefties Which would limit carpenter and mckinstry. But that leaves plenty of possibilities for gleybar, torkelson and baez. Limited times the tigers have seen burke also.
And who will produce runs for The white sox. I just dont get it and glad its not a play
If you have read stuff I post for last few years you probably know how I feel bout laying -200 or more on a single baseball game or my propensity to prefer dogs in general when it comes to sides so I’m biased but I believe chisox actually have a winning record at home their last 15 or so games played, that surprised me. I’ve already said I’d most likely play mize prop or lay runs with tigers Ff -.5 or game -1.5 if I played it (not generally plays I make tho) but I understand why ppl would bet Sox getting better than 2-1. I have to look at Mize still, I dunno why they pushed him back a day, was it cause the they saw the chance for a weather delay and didn’t want to waste him? Something else? And I need to look at how many days rest Mize now pitching on and if or how it has affected him in his career. Years ago I was pretty shocked to see how much better or worse some pitchers are based off whether they pitching on 4, 5, or 6+ days of rest! I don’t think I could talk myself into chisox, it no secret I’m a Mize fan and partial to the tigers, lol.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea I like Wilson, havnt looked at him today but in general I’d say if him getting a hit jumps you up 73 cents it probably worth it.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Mize not as good on 5, has a crappy history vs chisox and in this park, but I don’t think many the same players in the lineup who hit him in the past, lot of turnover for them, lol. Only real positive I’d say going for Mize is he been really good in the day this year and most his career. I don’t like him today so that might have something to do with the price coming down.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Not sure why line has dropped about 20 cents on the tigers. Are folks really backing the white sox with burke against Mize? Puzzling. Splits dont favor that, imo. I want to like the doggie here but i just dont see it.
Maybe its burke's splits against lefties Which would limit carpenter and mckinstry. But that leaves plenty of possibilities for gleybar, torkelson and baez. Limited times the tigers have seen burke also.
And who will produce runs for The white sox. I just dont get it and glad its not a play
Burke has really dominated lefties at home! Then the things I mentioned above I can certainly see why the line drop even if I’m not wanting to play chisox, they kinda look like the right side at the price. I’m pretty tempted to play Burke over 15.5 outs.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Jesus fuckinb christ, opened my fat mouth just in time for Pfaadt to implode again, kiss that under goodbye.
KJ
Minister of Communication
Needs to be sent down to work on something. Nelson is outperforming at the moment anyway...no reason to be hovering around .500 with Gallen (even though he's struggling)/Kelly/Burnes/Nelson they way they're pitching. BP has never gotten figured out since I've lived here though, hell they even brought Dave Duncan in for a period and he couldn't right the ship.
slim5150
Freelance Gynecologist
Perhaps those are some reasons for the drop in chisox. It was just puzzling. This is a dog which i have no interest.
I hope gleybar gets a hit and thats all i care about with that one.
Yeah. I drove to get some lunch and heard the braves inning where they lit up the scoreboard a bit. Still time, but holmes has looked sharp thus far.
Got 2 on in the 4th via free passes. Lets see if the snakes can make up some ground.
I hope gleybar gets a hit and thats all i care about with that one.
Yeah. I drove to get some lunch and heard the braves inning where they lit up the scoreboard a bit. Still time, but holmes has looked sharp thus far.
Got 2 on in the 4th via free passes. Lets see if the snakes can make up some ground.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea I’m more inclined to just ignore the tigers game than play anything. I almost talked myself into Burke over 15.5 outs but I don’t love all the walks. If it wasn’t for those id be all over that.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Join the crowd, lol. About what specifically?
KJ
Minister of Communication
Horses at Saratoga posing as Belmont is cool. Bank I need you to handicap the UCM Mules game, it will get my complete attention at 3pm. Think the team we play just set a D2 HR record. 2 seed v 3 seed to make the final. Always feel like Central has the bats that are better than you but that might not be the case against this team.
KJ
Minister of Communication
Crazy the WS is in NC, 2nd game starts at 9:30pm there. Wtf? That game will go til at least 1am
KJ
Minister of Communication
D1 bases is always Omaha, Softball is always OKC
Other divisions I don't think are so loyal to one place
On it, also took Philly TT O4.5
