2daBank
Voice of Reason
Makes sense. I wish gore start wasn’t being used against a lineup that not only hits lhp really well but they don’t strike out a whole lot against them either. I like playing gore k props but not sure it a good idea here?
June 4th mlb discussion thread
- Thread starter 2daBank
- Start date
Makes sense. I wish gore start wasn’t being used against a lineup that not only hits lhp really well but they don’t strike out a whole lot against them either. I like playing gore k props but not sure it a good idea here?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
lol didn’t see this post yet, kinda in same boat, wish gore start wasn’t being used against the team w 2nd best ops in baseball vs lhp, cubs have a fairly low k rate vs lefties also, Boyd at 5.5 might be better?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I wouldn’t worry much bout the kc/cards game either, been raining on and off all day and they calling for more storms around game time. They might play but could def be delays.
slim5150
Freelance Gynecologist
I like nats too with gore on the bump, but his stats against the projected lineup make me need more than what im being offered.
Cubs have been one of the best teams in terms of scoring runs, but also scoring runs late in games. So while gore may do his job and keep it closer, i get scared off when i think what cubbies may do after he departs.
Gore's outs prop is at 17.5 and juiced to -155. I think that could be a tall order if those cub bats work do work early. I might have to take that plus money under on him
Cubs have been one of the best teams in terms of scoring runs, but also scoring runs late in games. So while gore may do his job and keep it closer, i get scared off when i think what cubbies may do after he departs.
Gore's outs prop is at 17.5 and juiced to -155. I think that could be a tall order if those cub bats work do work early. I might have to take that plus money under on him
askias
Where Is Marquette‘s Firepower?
You could talk me into Boyd outs. 4 of the last 5 and 5 of the last 7 is a nice trend.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I did play his outs, his k’s were super tempting cause little better price and he had punched out 6+ in 4 of last 5 I think. Lot of 7-8 k games in there. I trust the outs more against Nats tho
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I was looking at several those lefties on top the order props, think you on to something, I ended up playing aranda ov 1.5 h/r/rbis
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Boyd is cruising, 3 outs to cash and his pitch count crazy low, hadn’t given up a base runner thru 5, long as he doesn’t get blown up we outta cash his outs pretty easy!
Coulda played gore k’s also but oh well, cubs making him work a lot harder than Boyd working. Gore is just filthy, gives up 3 singles to start game and strikes his way out of trouble.
Coulda played gore k’s also but oh well, cubs making him work a lot harder than Boyd working. Gore is just filthy, gives up 3 singles to start game and strikes his way out of trouble.
slim5150
Freelance Gynecologist
Lowe..lowe...and aranda all cash hrr props by 3rd i ning, lol. Most of the way to that team total. If they can keep rocker in a throigh the 4th i should hit the tt ov.
Under in the burg looking good. Weakness dor gusto was the lefty bats. Cruz goes yard and horowitz gets a hit i believe.
IkF has been hitting the ball really hard. I tjink if there is a favorable pitching matchup for him he could be a goot value hitter prop
Under in the burg looking good. Weakness dor gusto was the lefty bats. Cruz goes yard and horowitz gets a hit i believe.
IkF has been hitting the ball really hard. I tjink if there is a favorable pitching matchup for him he could be a goot value hitter prop
slim5150
Freelance Gynecologist
Povich looks to have stronger numbers than hancock. His home splits both look pretty hittable with a shade to lefties getting the best of him. Orioles have plenty of those. Sea righties should get a few opportinities off povich. Both have poor whips to boot. No weather issues to speak of.
Metrically it screams over. I saw where it opened at 8 and moved up to 8.5 which makes some sense.
I think the line is about right for both. Slight edge to balt for havimg the slightly better pitcher. But this is really a coin flip game imo.
I played a little alternate team total parlay for the game
Balt ov 3.5 runs with Sea ov 2.5 runs. +115
Metrically it screams over. I saw where it opened at 8 and moved up to 8.5 which makes some sense.
I think the line is about right for both. Slight edge to balt for havimg the slightly better pitcher. But this is really a coin flip game imo.
I played a little alternate team total parlay for the game
Balt ov 3.5 runs with Sea ov 2.5 runs. +115
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
when you guys bet teams or sides do you consider same game parlays as an option?
The majority of the losing teams runs are when they score 4 or less. Adding the opponent team total runs under 5 is a way to increase the ROI and pay less juice. Now sometimes it would turn a winner into a loser but reducing the juice by $.40 is a better option? What do you think? Also if a total is low like 7 or less then you can decide to play the game or decide how many team total runs is the best option.
Bet online gives the option of deciding how many runs to select. I’m not sure if any other book allows it.
The majority of the losing teams runs are when they score 4 or less. Adding the opponent team total runs under 5 is a way to increase the ROI and pay less juice. Now sometimes it would turn a winner into a loser but reducing the juice by $.40 is a better option? What do you think? Also if a total is low like 7 or less then you can decide to play the game or decide how many team total runs is the best option.
Bet online gives the option of deciding how many runs to select. I’m not sure if any other book allows it.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Season=2024 I’ll use as an example
Away favorites with a line<-115 (meaning more juice and higher win probability) there were 314 losses in these away favorite games. 247 of those losses the team didn’t score 5 runs.
Away favorites with a line<-115 (meaning more juice and higher win probability) there were 314 losses in these away favorite games. 247 of those losses the team didn’t score 5 runs.
slim5150
Freelance Gynecologist
Giants biggest challenge this year is scoring runs. I think that continues this evening. Pivetta has a decent amount of at bats against this lineup with willy adams hittimg a hr off him in their meetimg in april.
Hard to get a good read on harriaon. Starter last year then workimg his way back into things thos year witj limitwd work thia far due to injury ( i think). I would think the number on san diego was higher.
Of concern with pivetta is his close to 50% fly ball rate. Wimd is blowing out at whatever they call the giants park now.
Total is 7.5 so the linesmakers think harrison can contain the padres bats and the giants will continue to be run challenged.
Given that pivetta would be easier to determine some success i think i would stick with looking to him. Under 1.5 earned runs pays +115.
Hard to get a good read on harriaon. Starter last year then workimg his way back into things thos year witj limitwd work thia far due to injury ( i think). I would think the number on san diego was higher.
Of concern with pivetta is his close to 50% fly ball rate. Wimd is blowing out at whatever they call the giants park now.
Total is 7.5 so the linesmakers think harrison can contain the padres bats and the giants will continue to be run challenged.
Given that pivetta would be easier to determine some success i think i would stick with looking to him. Under 1.5 earned runs pays +115.
slim5150
Freelance Gynecologist
Minn tt ov and game over in oakland are leans. Zebby has looked ok good for minn in limited wotk this year. Spring, if that is who goes for oakland (too lazy to confirm) has been hittable.
i didnt dig into this game at all really. Minnesota has been an enigma for me for some reason. And oakland after a good little stint has been ice cold lately.
All that to say oak wins 4 to 3 in a walkoff, probably.
i didnt dig into this game at all really. Minnesota has been an enigma for me for some reason. And oakland after a good little stint has been ice cold lately.
All that to say oak wins 4 to 3 in a walkoff, probably.
