• Time to make 1st round picks for the College Football Playoff Contest!

June 4th mlb discussion thread

Not sure why but can’t find lines for 2 of the 3 day games? That doesn’t make much sense.

Dare I say Rockies might just sweep? Mentioned this after the game but crazy as it sounds my biggest fear is Rockies so pumped bout winning 2 straight they can’t resist going out and parting in Miami tonight! I mean last night before leaving a party city I would prob be out at the club shutting that bitch down when I was these kids age!!

Other than that they this the 3rd straight day I think I can argue rox have the better starting pitcher? As long as they willing fo give us +150 or so think they are probably the right side, a little worried the price is lower than that and not sure I’m willing to bite in that case?

Freeland has a great history in Miami but it only 2 starts and it been a few years since he pitched here. Forget the 0-8 record he has pitched really well away from Coors, 6 road starts and 5 of them been quality starts going at least 6 innings and not allowing more than 3 runs while sporting a 29:3 k:bb ratio in those games! Fair to say this will be the weakest lineup he has faced on the road, his history in day games isn’t great but I have no idea if he not a day person or that simply the Coors effect? The 6.50 day era this year has to be the result of Coors since his road era is 4.29 and opponents ops is a respectable .715. Marlins ops against lhp is close to 60 points lower than against righties. Lines up for him to pitch 6+ and keep fish to 3 runs or less. Rox pen has been performing well away from home as well and they havnt allowed a run this series. All that points to another winnable game, hopefully there some chasers fading Rox to drive up the price cause I’m starting to think this could easily be only In the +125-130 range. Regardless if I like them to win we should be getting more than than backing a team with 11 wins who I don’t believe has swept a series all year!

on the other side there never been anything special bout Quantril who has lasted more than 5 innings only 1x this year and that was in pitcher friendly Seattle where he went 5.2 and gave up 4 runs. He has been better of late not giving up more than 2 runs in 4 his last 5 but again he isn’t going deep into games and he pitched for the rockies last year so they should be pretty familiar with him, if rox are patient they can not only get a few off him but will get to see several middle relief pitchers.

We just need the price to make this worth backing the Rox to break out the 🧹 🧹 🧹
 
Last edited:
If the price on rox isn’t high enough we could certainly look to back Freeland over his out total, I assume it be 17.5 but again will have to wait and see and where they price it.
 
1st thought in the laa/bos game is we are gonna see runs, def a over lean but have to look at things and probably wait for lineups since halo’s been moving trout all around and im a little worried some big names might sit this one out. I certainly don’t trust either starter tho. For years Giolito has annoyed me, even at his best he has had the tendency to be pitching well then out of nowhere give up a crooked number or 2. Imo he is nowhere close to his best anymore, his swinging strike rate has plummeted to a sorry 7%, that less than half of his peak years! For the most part he has been alternating decent to good starts with terrible starts, last game wasn’t great or terrible so what the hell we get from him here is anyone’s guess. One knock against the over would be historically he has been a better day pitcher including this year where his best start came in the day at kc where he went 6.2 only allowing 2 hits and a walk. He has kinda been a mixed bag vs halo hitters just like his career, has held them to a low average but they also have a collective slug over .600! He has not been good at Fenway, as the opponent he was shelled here a few times now this year as a Red Sox player pitching at Fenway he has allowed a ops over 1.000! I think we have to expect halo’s to score some runs off him and for him not to go very deep into the game.

Angels pitcher doesn’t inspire much confidence either, just right on the surface he has 49:34 k:bb in 68 innings. That makes me incredibly skeptical of his 3.41 era and what’s more confusing his xfip is under 4 as well, a 6k and 4+ walk per 9 pitcher generally doesn’t get that much love from the analytics. The walks are just way too high and he is consistently walking 3+ per start! That a recipe for disaster here imo. Again I really gotta see the lineups for this game cause I fear some the big hitters could sit but I have a hard time thinking either team gets held below 4, obviously 5-4 could beat us with a 9.5 total but I think if most the best hitters play we see someone score more than that.
 
Not usually a huge fan of playing for the sweep but off top id lean halo’s once again getting the plus money in what i think with trout are 2 fairly evenly matched teams.
 
a few quick thoughts from glancing down rest of card, no capping at all on these just 1st thoughts so don’t take to seriously!!

Why in the world are pads now favs after they made San Fran incredibly overpriced the 1st 2 games? They putting way too much emphasis on starting pitcher names this series imo, while I been saying pads the better team I think with the line flipping it be giants ot nothing but I’d prefer price got bet up a little more.

Feel like kc/stl could be another high scoring affair, it not hot here yet but the humidity has been noticeably higher and it warm enough ball carrying at Busch now,

Opposite feeling for Tex/tampa, doubt we see many runs but I have to look a lot closer at the pitchers and matchups (same for kc/stl).

Give us a playable out total on Mize please 🙏 that or maybe just lay the -1.5 with tigers assuming it doesn’t cost anything (don’t see a price on this game either for some reason, these mfers lazy, they should give me a job!!).

Braves are to expensive, have to look at Kelly vs Atl lineup but I don’t think sale v Kelly warrants that price as I think these fairly even teams.

We missed a chance to play Philly, my overthinking prob hurt @Win4L , my bad. I did tell ya when lines move that far I think the move loses more than not! Phillies came out and just smashed them, everyone besides the prop I played hit the ball hard! Still can’t figure out how schwarber fat ass couldn’t touch that weak shit Francis was throwing and everyone else in lineup was bashing??? Now they callling Philly/jays even money? Guess we back to the world of blue jays being way overvalued since they not on same planet as Philly!! I bet schwarber hits a bomb 💣 2marro since I bet guys a day early all the time!! Dunno anything bout Philly pitcher but think they can def hit Berrios.

Think cubs/nats Ff under has potential or either pitchers k prop up if priced decent.


That all I got right now, feel free to comment or pick it apart as I said no capping involved on these just random thoughts for a jumping off point.
 
My eyes hurt so hopefully I can sleep for awhile. Last night I was dreaming bout Theresa and woke up sad as fuck so now I’m not sure I want to sleep, I guess seeing her somewhere is better than not at all 🥰.
 
Damn Freeland ov 17.5 outs carrying bunch of juice. I like him to go at least 6 innings but not sure I like him -175? I guess as a parlay builder to start day it ok. That just expensive when we not talking bout one the top guys.
 
2daBank said:
a few quick thoughts from glancing down rest of card, no capping at all on these just 1st thoughts so don’t take to seriously!!

Why in the world are pads now favs after they made San Fran incredibly overpriced the 1st 2 games? They putting way too much emphasis on starting pitcher names this series imo, while I been saying pads the better team I think with the line flipping it be giants ot nothing but I’d prefer price got bet up a little more.

Feel like kc/stl could be another high scoring affair, it not hot here yet but the humidity has been noticeably higher and it warm enough ball carrying at Busch now,

Opposite feeling for Tex/tampa, doubt we see many runs but I have to look a lot closer at the pitchers and matchups (same for kc/stl).

Give us a playable out total on Mize please 🙏 that or maybe just lay the -1.5 with tigers assuming it doesn’t cost anything (don’t see a price on this game either for some reason, these mfers lazy, they should give me a job!!).

Braves are to expensive, have to look at Kelly vs Atl lineup but I don’t think sale v Kelly warrants that price as I think these fairly even teams.

We missed a chance to play Philly, my overthinking prob hurt @Win4L , my bad. I did tell ya when lines move that far I think the move loses more than not! Phillies came out and just smashed them, everyone besides the prop I played hit the ball hard! Still can’t figure out how schwarber fat ass couldn’t touch that weak shit Francis was throwing and everyone else in lineup was bashing??? Now they callling Philly/jays even money? Guess we back to the world of blue jays being way overvalued since they not on same planet as Philly!! I bet schwarber hits a bomb 💣 2marro since I bet guys a day early all the time!! Dunno anything bout Philly pitcher but think they can def hit Berrios.

Think cubs/nats Ff under has potential or either pitchers k prop up if priced decent.


That all I got right now, feel free to comment or pick it apart as I said no capping involved on these just random thoughts for a jumping off point.
Click to expand...
I didn’t end up playing Philly but I took over 8.5 instead. So no harm done lol. And I will always value your opinions over my own 😂.
 
Surprised to see a 9 total in Cincy today. But Abbott has to be due for regression…no? The guy has been a machine, especially at home.

Neither team has been great vs lefties either. I don’t know much about Hall. Seems like he’s more of an opener so who is coming in after.

Any thoughts in this game Bank?
 
No technical analysis but think Rox are content with a series win. Marlins should have some fire after losing 2 straight to a minor league team no? Marlins -1 -115 is likely an early play for me.

Playing Marlins ML / Red Sox ML +186 medium (DK). GL on your plays today
 
Last edited:
Win4L said:
Surprised to see a 9 total in Cincy today. But Abbott has to be due for regression…no? The guy has been a machine, especially at home.

Neither team has been great vs lefties either. I don’t know much about Hall. Seems like he’s more of an opener so who is coming in after.

Any thoughts in this game Bank?
Click to expand...

I dunno how deep hall can go or who follows him so I’m pretty much at a loss there. Contreres and yelich have hit abbot a little. I don’t make a habit of playing brewer overs or unders in cincy so your guess as good as mine. Im not as big on Abbott as others, he been great but I saw him on someone’s top 10 pitcher in baseball list yesterday when Zach wheeler and about 10 other guys I’d take over him weren’t on it so maybe he better than I think? I’m kinda shocked a fly ball pitcher that isn’t exactly overpowering is pitching so well in that park, and he walks few more ppl than you would want imo.
 
laopadak said:
No technical analysis but think Rox are content with a series win. Marlins should have some fire after losing 2 straight to a minor league team no? Marlins -1 -115 is likely an early play for me.

Playing Marlins ML / Red Sox ML +186 medium (DK). GL on your plays today
Click to expand...

I dunno bro, I think we trying to hard if we thinking Rockies are content or marlins actually care much if any more than them, lol. But it wouldn’t shock me if Rox went out in Miami last night, who knows? I just think once again we get the better starter on the dog and despite the records I’m not sure fish all that much better than rox. Couldn’t I just as easily say Rox got a taste for winning and like it? They are mostly young kids I think, I could def see them winning this game, it has to be the plus money or pass for me cause I think Freeland is significantly better than Quantrill, but not like you gonna lose money if you betting against rox all year, lol. Gl to you as well.
 
Damn waiting for lineups to come out cost me a full freaking run on that over in Boston. Think I still like the over even at 10.5, bummed I didn’t get it last night but had to see lineups 1st
 
Soriano has surprisingly good splits against lefties, not sure why exactly, I assume it has to do w the splitter and knuckle curve, I really didn’t expect to see that. Hurts my over lean a little bit but I still like over and laa to win again.
 
FW IW
Vogt is as bad as Francona - leving in pitchers too long just to get innings. He is the reason Cle lost yesterday.
He also keeps screwing with the line up.

Face it. As long as CLE has a catcher hitting under 200 - this manager is an asshole. There are 20 catchers in the minors who can hit over 200. yet CLE never traded for one.
Teams in the W-Series this year will have the two best catchers in the league.
DET and LAD
 
G-Man said:
FW IW
Vogt is as bad as Francona - leving in pitchers too long just to get innings. He is the reason Cle lost yesterday.
He also keeps screwing with the line up.

Face it. As long as CLE has a catcher hitting under 200 - this manager is an asshole. There are 20 catchers in the minors who can hit over 200. yet CLE never traded for one.
Teams in the W-Series this year will have the two best catchers in the league.
DET and LAD
Click to expand...

I havnt notice him much but id def say after he got 6 innings of 1 run ball out of Bibee and he was around 100 pitches it didnt make much sense to bring him back out, i mean what the best case he hoping for there? Obviously a quick inning but he still have his starter throwing 115 pitches.
 
Great start to the over in Boston. Giolito didn’t even take his time to start sucking in this one!! I wish I would have posted this but u actually have ward to hit a bomb and he hit the slam. I also have the halo’s catcher and that pussy scwarber later since he screwed me yesterday. Just a small hr parlay longshot w fat payout.
 
Freeland cashed his over out total easy. He could potentially pitch a complete game the way he going.
 
I shouldn’t have ran my mouth bout Freeland pitching a complete game, next freaking inning he starts getting hit.
 
I cant find many reasons to not take houston today. Can someone talk me off this play?

Gusto is worse against lefties than righties (289 avg, 393 obp, 553 slg vs. 247avg, 303obp, 321slg) with just over 75 batters against each side. That would be cruz, reynolds, and horowitz for Pit. Not overly scary there.

Burrows comes in Having pitched only about 8 innings of relief duty this year. Hasnt faced many batters (39). In those games vs MIL and @ Ari he saw predomineyly right handed batters such as Hou is projected to start today. Of those batters faced he has faced 15 from the right for a 333 avg, 474obp and 733slg. Lefties show a 211avg 250 obp and a 526 slg.

After having faced one of the best pitchers in the MLB this should be a wrlcome sight for the Stros.

Burrows is averaging about 1 ER an inning and 1.60 WHIP.

As is mostly the case with bets on or against PIT you have to wonder where you will get run production.

While gusto is no world beater, i feel like he will not allow as many runs across as burrows given their respective strengths/weaknesses against the projected lineups they will face.
 
slim5150 said:
I cant find many reasons to not take houston today. Can someone talk me off this play?

Gusto is worse against lefties than righties (289 avg, 393 obp, 553 slg vs. 247avg, 303obp, 321slg) with just over 75 batters against each side. That would be cruz, reynolds, and horowitz for Pit. Not overly scary there.

Burrows comes in Having pitched only about 8 innings of relief duty this year. Hasnt faced many batters (39). In those games vs MIL and @ Ari he saw predomineyly right handed batters such as Hou is projected to start today. Of those batters faced he has faced 15 from the right for a 333 avg, 474obp and 733slg. Lefties show a 211avg 250 obp and a 526 slg.

After having faced one of the best pitchers in the MLB this should be a wrlcome sight for the Stros.

Burrows is averaging about 1 ER an inning and 1.60 WHIP.

As is mostly the case with bets on or against PIT you have to wonder where you will get run production.

While gusto is no world beater, i feel like he will not allow as many runs across as burrows given their respective strengths/weaknesses against the projected lineups they will face.
Click to expand...

Considering Pirates track record with unders it really hard not to play the under 9 despite the pitchers, it not like Stros offense is very scary either. I can’t make a good case vs Stros, I don’t know shit bout pirates pitcher but sure doesn’t look great. Stros pen is way better, and despite not having a good offense it still better than pirates I think.
 
Damn. I was really hoping O’hoppe get a 2nd at bat bs Giolito but got yanked just for his at bat. Mfer. Wonder if the offenses gonna slow down once both teams get these starters out?
 
If you want a good laugh look at Giolito numbers at Fenway. He got shelled a few times when he was pitching for chisox and came to Fenway, now pitching as his home park he allowing a ops over 1.000 coming into this game, don’t even know what his era is but gotta be close to 10! Lol
 
Win4L said:
Thanks for the no sweat over in Boston!
Click to expand...

Love it when they cash so quick! Nothing worse than having over and waiting around inning after inning, with Giolito I knew it would probably come at some point but sometimes he comes out looking good for 2-3-4 innings, that one blow up inning always seems to come eventually, even back when he was considered a good pitcher it happened a lot with him.
 
These relievers getting save chances all week for the Rox have to be confused actually having a lead when they come in!
 
Rockies win again and they partying in the streets of Colorado! Not gonna lie cashing tickets w this team feels extra gratifying! Lol.

Mets better be ready going into Coors this weekend!! They could easily lose game 1!!
 
Re rox: jusy goes to show they have a couple decent pitchers there...their bats are a definite weakness. If you look at the numbers they are by far the worst in run production.

Pitching is always going to be tough in coors, but if they could address the bats they could have more chances for success.

Its funny how much we all know about statistically the worst team in baseball.

@2daBank good point about that total in Pit. I think 9.5 is a bit agressive although the underlying pitcher stats suggest more runs than less. The under is juiced to 125. Might have a look at HRB and take the un 8.5 at plus money (115 currently).
 
Rox have some guys pitching pretty well away from home, I think overall their pen is pretty decent when they get away from Coors also.
 
slim5150 said:
Re rox: jusy goes to show they have a couple decent pitchers there...their bats are a definite weakness. If you look at the numbers they are by far the worst in run production.

Pitching is always going to be tough in coors, but if they could address the bats they could have more chances for success.

Its funny how much we all know about statistically the worst team in baseball.

@2daBank good point about that total in Pit. I think 9.5 is a bit agressive although the underlying pitcher stats suggest more runs than less. The under is juiced to 125. Might have a look at HRB and take the un 8.5 at plus money (115 currently).
Click to expand...

Yea neither pitcher makes me want to play the under but damn that a high total for both these teams in a fairly good pitchers park I believe. Stros pen is still really good, gusto can probably limit pirates to a few. Biggest concern for me is pirates pitcher but Stros offense isn’t all that dangerous either.
 
Halo’s leaving this bum out there to give up the lead. Now they yank him.
 
I been a gore fan since he got to Nats so this year has made me happy but cubs feel a little cheap here considering they one the best teams vs lhp and nats much better facing righties . Somehow Boyd keeps getting better every year!!
 
Fuck. I thought I got my bomb from o’hoppe but banged off the monster. At least if put Halo’s back in front. Although I think it m gonna take 12-13 to win this freaking game
 
2daBank said:
I been a gore fan since he got to Nats so this year has made me happy but cubs feel a little cheap here considering they one the best teams vs lhp and nats much better facing righties . Somehow Boyd keeps getting better every year!!
Click to expand...
I have Wash+1.5 in a parlay.

Ya Boyd has been crazy good. Have a feeling we are getting a one run game here.
 
I kind of like Gore strikeouts tonight I just can’t decide if I want to mix it up with the Cubs, who could roll all over them.
 
Is there any point capping the snakes/braves game? It looks like a lot of rain is headed at atl
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top