June 3rd MLB Discussion Thread
- Thread starter askias
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
My props were not so hot but of course every side lean I posted won but did I play them? Nope! (Well I did play pads at least) Would have been a beautiful 4 team round robin in groups of 2 as I like to do. Mets, Milw, pads, and even the Rockies all pulled them out!! All of them besides milw were better than +150, would have paid so nice! Instead im playing 12 props like a knucklehead. lol. I need to get back to a healthy mix of sides and props.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I stopped following after it was obvious I was wrong about Webb as he shit all over pads for 21 outs! Can’t believe pads still won to salvage a bit the pain. Of course Arreaz hit his over total bases with a double as I sat there w a h/r/rbi ticket instead, I think that my biggest weakness with hitter props, I play total bases and dude walks 3x and scores a few runs so total bases loses while h/r/RBI cashes. On the other hand I recall 4 just over the past week I played h/r/rbi and they all hit a double to cash total bases but nobody on and nobody drives them in! One of them hit the double with a man on 1st and the SOB stopped at 3rd like a pussy! While I might have understood doing that with less than 2 outs back in the day when the next man up
would choke up and make contact to get the runner home, now days the situation makes no difference the next man up is swinging out his shoes for 3 strikes!! They be better off sending the guy home on the double and taking their chances he beats the throw, I’d be willing to bet the odds of him scoring from 1st are way higher than the next guy hitting a sac fly or ground ball even! That’s life in the new analytics driven baseball I suppose.
I had given up on Ohtani but once again he comes thru with a bomb and cashes his over 2.5 h/r/RBI, dude is a freaking beast! I really think going forward anytime him or judge has a 2.5 without much juice im playing them! Especially if they facing any pitcher that not an ace, even then who cares? They could still hit the ace and if not they will hit the 1st guy out the pen! I suppose the only thing about playing them vs aces would be the potential they get walked and the aces keep the guys behind them in check. That most likely more relevant w judge, w Ohtani leading off and the lineup behind him so stacked he most likely scores on lot his walks! These 2 guys are just on another level than everyone else!
would choke up and make contact to get the runner home, now days the situation makes no difference the next man up is swinging out his shoes for 3 strikes!! They be better off sending the guy home on the double and taking their chances he beats the throw, I’d be willing to bet the odds of him scoring from 1st are way higher than the next guy hitting a sac fly or ground ball even! That’s life in the new analytics driven baseball I suppose.
I had given up on Ohtani but once again he comes thru with a bomb and cashes his over 2.5 h/r/RBI, dude is a freaking beast! I really think going forward anytime him or judge has a 2.5 without much juice im playing them! Especially if they facing any pitcher that not an ace, even then who cares? They could still hit the ace and if not they will hit the 1st guy out the pen! I suppose the only thing about playing them vs aces would be the potential they get walked and the aces keep the guys behind them in check. That most likely more relevant w judge, w Ohtani leading off and the lineup behind him so stacked he most likely scores on lot his walks! These 2 guys are just on another level than everyone else!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Pirates vs McCullers is interesting I’m just not sure how to play it cause i refuse to pay the juice they charge to back Skenes! I certainly don’t trust this Stros lineup to hit him, obviously the pirates unders been coming in like crazy but my concern here is McCullers, I think he is trending the right direction, his velo is still down but his slider and curve have been getting more effective each start as is his swinging strike rate. My fear is the games he walking guys when he getting himself in real trouble, for all the pirates lineup many faults they actually have a pretty high walk rate vs rhp. Last game his 1st pitch strike was way up as well as his swinging strike rate has been back to elite the last 2 starts. Is that a product of facing the free swinging A’s last time out who swung at a lot of pitches out the zone or is his stuff improving? He went 6 innings in that start but that was the 1st time he managed to make it thru the 5th! The good news is Stros still have a very good pen so if he can give them 5+ I don’t think it real likely pirates get much off the pen.
Pretty much impossible to say anything other than the under with the under run pirates on, the fact I doubt Stros can get much off skenes, and the fact I don’t think pirates can score late in the game. I want to say McCullers getting plus money on over 15.5 outs is interesting but will his control be there? They have a 2.5 walk total posted for him and really they go hand in hand, he walks less than 3 I feel like going past the 5th is pretty likely, he walks 3 or more and they be lucky to get 5 innings out of him.
Pretty much impossible to say anything other than the under with the under run pirates on, the fact I doubt Stros can get much off skenes, and the fact I don’t think pirates can score late in the game. I want to say McCullers getting plus money on over 15.5 outs is interesting but will his control be there? They have a 2.5 walk total posted for him and really they go hand in hand, he walks less than 3 I feel like going past the 5th is pretty likely, he walks 3 or more and they be lucky to get 5 innings out of him.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Can the Rockies win b2b games? As crazy it sounds I believe the answer is yes and as I felt yesterday the price is again giving them some value, the toughest thing for me is the fact I passed on them yesterday so playing them today and losing would really be a kick in the nuts! Let’s look 
closer than just the fact that was only their 10th win on the year and it seems little crazy to expect 2 in a row!
1st off did the being Alcontera back from TJ to soon? His velo is slightly down but not enough to be a difference maker imo (less than 1mph across all his pitches), so if that isn’t the issue what is? For as good his stuff is I’ve always found it a bit frustrating he doesn’t miss more bats than he does, that was ok when he was creating a bunch of weak contact. The problem for him now is he not creating weak contact at all! In his best days he was getting soft contact more than 20% the time, this year he is only getting weak contact 6% the time!! Hitters are pulling the ball at a higher clip than ever before contributing to the avg exit velo against him being a good 3-4 mph harder than his career norm. He isn’t getting guys to chase w opponents swinging 10% less on pitches out of the zone than ever before, overall guys are swinging less at pitches in the zone as well but when they swing they are making contact and harder contact than ever before. To top it all off he throwing less strikes and far less 1st pitch strikes than ever before. At his best Alcontera was a innings eating machine, this year he has only made it 6 innings 1x, in his peak he routinely pitched 7-8 innings! He is clearly not close to that guy right now, it so bad the fish are 30 cents cheaper today than yesterday when a kid who has proven to be a bit a gas can was on the mound! I honestly believe he wasn’t ready to come back and his margin of error lower being a pitcher who despite high velo stuff was a efficient pitch to weak contact pitcher.
On the other side I see a lot of potential with the Rox rookie Dollander, obviously his numbers not gonna look sexy with half his starts coming at coors but take him out that park and in his 4 road starts he has 3 starts allowing 2 runs or less while striking out 6 or 7 and those were all significantly better offenses than he will face tonight! He has good stuff and him out pitching Alcontera for 5+ innings feels a lot more likely to me than the odds suggest. Maybe Rox 1st 5 would make more sense? Maybe it be better to pass, all I’m sayin is I wouldn’t go blindly playing fish laying this juice thinking Rox can’t win 2 in a row cause imo they have a really good chance to actually take a series!!
closer than just the fact that was only their 10th win on the year and it seems little crazy to expect 2 in a row! 1st off did the being Alcontera back from TJ to soon? His velo is slightly down but not enough to be a difference maker imo (less than 1mph across all his pitches), so if that isn’t the issue what is? For as good his stuff is I’ve always found it a bit frustrating he doesn’t miss more bats than he does, that was ok when he was creating a bunch of weak contact. The problem for him now is he not creating weak contact at all! In his best days he was getting soft contact more than 20% the time, this year he is only getting weak contact 6% the time!! Hitters are pulling the ball at a higher clip than ever before contributing to the avg exit velo against him being a good 3-4 mph harder than his career norm. He isn’t getting guys to chase w opponents swinging 10% less on pitches out of the zone than ever before, overall guys are swinging less at pitches in the zone as well but when they swing they are making contact and harder contact than ever before. To top it all off he throwing less strikes and far less 1st pitch strikes than ever before. At his best Alcontera was a innings eating machine, this year he has only made it 6 innings 1x, in his peak he routinely pitched 7-8 innings! He is clearly not close to that guy right now, it so bad the fish are 30 cents cheaper today than yesterday when a kid who has proven to be a bit a gas can was on the mound! I honestly believe he wasn’t ready to come back and his margin of error lower being a pitcher who despite high velo stuff was a efficient pitch to weak contact pitcher.
On the other side I see a lot of potential with the Rox rookie Dollander, obviously his numbers not gonna look sexy with half his starts coming at coors but take him out that park and in his 4 road starts he has 3 starts allowing 2 runs or less while striking out 6 or 7 and those were all significantly better offenses than he will face tonight! He has good stuff and him out pitching Alcontera for 5+ innings feels a lot more likely to me than the odds suggest. Maybe Rox 1st 5 would make more sense? Maybe it be better to pass, all I’m sayin is I wouldn’t go blindly playing fish laying this juice thinking Rox can’t win 2 in a row cause imo they have a really good chance to actually take a series!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Only concern for me is I assume pretty high juice? You know what else I’ve found I like sometimes instead the nrfi is the under 2.5 hits,runs, errors for the 1st inning, protects against a solo bomb, also protects ya against McCullers walking a guy or 2, a stolen base, and a single or not even a hit bringing a run in. Generally the price is better on that also. Of course it not without if potential pitfalls, could be 2 hits and an error no runs scoring.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Not trying to talk you off but this season in particular McCullers has had serious issues in the 1st. I don’t know if those numbers stem from one terrible 1st or if he has struggled in multiple? In 5 starts he has given up 6 runs and allowed a ops over 1.000!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Dollander ov 4.5 k’s
slim5150
Freelance Gynecologist
I played col also..for alot of the reasons you discuss, specifically i am getting the better pitcher at over 1.50 dog.
When does the improvement happen for sandy? Not sure. I think he will look a bit better today given the lack of hitting talent o. The Rox, but dont think that will be enough.
I dont care much about them winning last night. I think streaks create value. A bad team breaking a losing streak doesnt change the underlying numbers at all.
I played an alcantera parlay. Wanted to put ov hits in there. But its at 5.5 and i question if Col can get there. This pays about +430 and i like those odds.
Alcantera
Ov 1.5 bb
Ov 3.5 k
Ov 2.5 earned runs
When does the improvement happen for sandy? Not sure. I think he will look a bit better today given the lack of hitting talent o. The Rox, but dont think that will be enough.
I dont care much about them winning last night. I think streaks create value. A bad team breaking a losing streak doesnt change the underlying numbers at all.
I played an alcantera parlay. Wanted to put ov hits in there. But its at 5.5 and i question if Col can get there. This pays about +430 and i like those odds.
Alcantera
Ov 1.5 bb
Ov 3.5 k
Ov 2.5 earned runs
2daBank
Voice of Reason
The only reason I care about them winning last night is cause I leaned to playing them and passed. Not so much having anything to do with today’s results. I’ve always been one to think baseball a bit a momentum sport in the sense after you break a good or bad streak you likely to repeat the next night so yea I agree that don’t bother me, not cashing on them does when I felt bout same far as getting the more consistent pitcher vs a rookie who been all over the place. I have no clue when or if the switch will flip for alcontera but sure havnt seen many signs he on the verge of figuring it out. I kinda like what I see in this kid dollander pitching for Rox, and let’s face it he not exactly facing a murders row lineup either! Gl
2daBank
Voice of Reason
The price on Red Sox seems high. 2 pitchers that been a constant pain in my ass to figure out and sox have had some success vs Kikuchi. That said this season Kikuchi been the more consistent of the 2, both are capable of being good or getting knocked around. Think trout coming back has to be a jolt to halo’s. Getting plus money feels like the right side.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
1st glance, to damn expensive but I havnt dug into it yet.
I thought bout Rox Ff opposed to game and have no problem with it but I was surprised to see there pen has been pretty solid of late and I think obviously better away from Coors.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Looks like they opened around that -150 mark, somebody bet the shit out of jays, no clue why, I hate that team! I will say for last few years I’ve found it kinda head scratching they didn’t hit lhp cause they been a right handed heavy lineup for some time, it looks like it has changed this year as they have the 5th best ops vs lhp this year. Another game I havnt looked a lot at yet but they did get to see a bunch of lefties against A’s so that might have them in a good spot to hit Sanchez, Sanchez is prob better than any the lhp A’s threw at them but I think seeing lefties so often can’t do anything but help.
I did know their #’s vs lefties were good but I didn’t factor in the lefties they faced in Oakland series. Philly may be fools gold tonight.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I did know their #’s vs lefties were good but I didn’t factor in the lefties they faced in Oakland series. Philly may be fools gold tonight.
I promise this probably doesn’t mean jack shit and I havnt tracked it in years but I seriously quit betting overnight mlb lines cause I swear every time I beat a number by as much this one has moved my team lost! I’d be all giddy patting myself on the back for beating the close by 20-30 cents and sure enough my team be down 6 runs before I blinked! I am surprised it moved so much cause I don’t think the advanced stuff likes Bowden very much and usually those kind of moves come from the die hard analytics guys that are sure regression or progression (I suppose that the way to say it, lol) is coming based off the surface stats not lining up, that isn’t the case for either pitcher here tho.
I just glanced at this one after you brought it up and yea the fact A’s starting 3 lefties in the 4 games I think an advantage for jay’s against Sanchez here. Obviously none of them the same but I gotta think seeing the ball from the same side a bunch is helpful, think that backed up by the fact managers often try to stagger left and right handed starters in their rotation. Throw in jays have finally started hitting lefties this year and it would concern me backing Philly.
All that said I don’t disagree with you about price at all, I like Sanchez quite a bit and Francis is just meh. Both guys had a start vs opposing team last year, Sanchez was pretty dominant for 7 innings, Bowden wasn’t to shabby for 6. The Philly hitters hit Francis balls a lot harder tho, 6 guys had exit velo above 95mph and a few others were right below. Only one Toronto player had an exit velo above 95 vs Sanchez. Very limited at bats in one game doesn’t mean much but that kinda falls in line with what I think bout both pitchers. No chance i want any part of jays but think it an easy pass for me, gun to head I think I’d play Philly but wouldn’t feel great about it.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Halo’s +116
Dollander ov 4.5 k’s
McCullers ov 15.5 outs
Acuna ov 2.5 h/r/rbi
Judge ov 2.5 h/r/rbi
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Horton ov 3.5 k’s
Nats throwing out an entire left handed lineup but so far in this Kids young career he has excellent numbers vs lefty hitters. All thru the minors he was better than a k per inning, 4k’s pretty much just means he doesn’t get shelled, if he goes 5+ innings think he should cash.
Nats throwing out an entire left handed lineup but so far in this Kids young career he has excellent numbers vs lefty hitters. All thru the minors he was better than a k per inning, 4k’s pretty much just means he doesn’t get shelled, if he goes 5+ innings think he should cash.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Schwarber ov 1.5 h/r/rbi
Crow-Armstrong ov 2.5 h/r/rbi
I really considered total bases for crow-Armstrong but I can’t help I like the h/r/RBI better, plus if I switch now that will start hitting and total bases Won’t, he end up with a single, rbi and run scored. Lol. I think that my entire card unless I come back on something late. Gl everyone
Crow-Armstrong ov 2.5 h/r/rbi
I really considered total bases for crow-Armstrong but I can’t help I like the h/r/RBI better, plus if I switch now that will start hitting and total bases Won’t, he end up with a single, rbi and run scored. Lol. I think that my entire card unless I come back on something late. Gl everyone
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Damn, I like the Horton kid but he didn’t really have a consistent put away pitch for all those lefties, would have liked to see the manager let him pitch himself out that little jam seeing how he was only at 72 pitches but I get it. Man I don’t even wanna know how many 0-2 or 1-2 counts he had that he couldn’t finish off, I counted at least 4 and I stopped paying attention after the 3rd.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’m not sure he was much better, I only saw a little but he got away with quite a few hangers and other pitches right down Broadway. 2 in the 1st inning both got yanked foul, couple that were just missed or taken later on. Maybe it was a little bit of both but I think a legit lineup most likely runs him by the 5th again. Guess we have to wait and see til he plays a big league squad but I’m still pretty skeptical. Did the Dollander kid get hurt? He was pumping 98-99 in there, kinda like the kid for cubs he struggled to put guys away but I don’t think he did anything to be yanked that early?
We just got the lead tho! Cmon rox you know we gonna party in Miami tonight if we win b2b games! Lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
At least I had a good read on McCullers starting to look better, obviously facing the pirates lineup made it an easier decision but he looked a lot more like the McCullers of old. Still doesn’t quite have the velo but his offspeed was very good and the location on the hard stuff was on point.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
So yesterday I played Greene ov 1.5 h/r/rbi and he was pretty much the only freaking starter not to go over, any shock he has 2 hits today? Lol. I guess that means 2narro schwarber should be nails since he damn near the only Philly hitter not to cash and the one I played. Lol. Fuck me
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Sent text
Still getting sleep out my eyes and can barely read posts. No basketball so I either need gambles or drugs...or both!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Sorry man I was taking care of doggy. I didht mess with it cause I dunno wtf is wrong with Kirby? He hasn’t been right.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Damn, pads stranded a bunch of runners last few innings. Pretty crazy to think of 3 of the 4 starting pitchers so far in this series havnt exactly been household names and we have seen all of 3 runs in 2 games with one of them coming from the extra inning base runner!! Pitching has dominated this series.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Pads pulled it out! So 3-0 hitting all plus money sides, hit my only pitcher out prop with McCullers cashing fairly easy but whiffed on both the pitcher k props and once again the hitter props were kinda crap, had another hit/run/rbi guy cash his total bases but failed on my play. Had the only guy in Phillies lineup who went 0 for fucjing 5 on a day everyone else was smashing jays starter! I don’t even know how the fuck I keep pulling this feet off? You think it be damn near impossible for 2 days straight a team hammering the opposing starter and the guy in middle the lineup I play is the only one who does nothing! Anyways glad I brought more sides back into play as they made the night a whole lot better and shout out to @KJ for texting me and making me find him a west coast play or I wouldn’t havd played pads! Lol
