June 20 Discussion - Astros losing B2B?

eovaldi got hit last time out i think....price cheap at -40....sale -200 last night and sox just don't score for him and price been lights out and only -40....gotta check to see how minn hits lefties....questionable bullpen call by cora in a 2-2 game bringing in scott, rare blowup by kelly also....sox 8-8 in sale's starts....hard to believe with his numbers but they just don't score for him, he has lost 2 games 1-0
 
Should be a good early game in pillie

TV: 1:05 p.m. ET, FS Midwest (St. Louis), NBCS Philadelphia

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (8-2, 3.24 ERA) vs. Phillies RH Jake Arrieta (5-5, 3.33)

Wacha is looking to atone for a horrific outing on Friday after surrendering three homers and nine runs total over four-plus innings as he suffered his first loss since March 31 in a 13-5 setback versus the Chicago Cubs. The 26-year-old issued four free passes in that contest to increase his walk total to 13 in his last four trips to the mound after allowing 21 in his previous 10 starts. Wacha improved to 3-2 in his career against Philadelphia after permitting two runs in six innings and striking out a season high-tying eight batters in a 12-4 romp on May 18.

Signed to a three-year, $75 million deal, Arrieta answered a strong 10-start performance out of the blocks with an 0-3 mark and 7.98 ERA in his last three outings. The 2015 National League Cy Young Award winner was blitzed for eight runs on seven hits in 3 1/3 innings of a 13-2 setback at Milwaukee on Friday. Arrieta also fell victim to Wacha and the Cardinals on May 18, yielding four runs (two earned) in three frames to drop to 8-5 with a 2.38 ERA in his 18 career encounters with St. Louis.

WALK-OFFS

1. Philadelphia LF Rhys Hoskins has 10 hits -- including three homers -- to go along with eight RBIs and six runs scored in his last six games.

2. St. Louis CF Tommy Pham, who is riding a 13-game hitting streak, has homered in back-to-back contests.

3. Phillies 1B Carlos Santana's solo homer extended his hit streak to four games, during which he has scored five times in the last three.

PREDICTION: Cardinals 4, Phillies 2
Click to expand...
 
been toying with this system for 2-3 weeks where there is a large run differential between teams, houston obviously the frontrunner but others strong as well, hou,sox,yanks,atl and cubs are the most positive and kc,balt tex and mia are the most neg. I look for team matchups and if the combined differential exceeds the number of games played x 1.5 then the series qualifies. I then look at the pitching matchups for the series, check in here to see who likes who and see if it's viable from that standpoint. It worked very well with hou last week as it was the perfect storm with the largest positive and negative combined. Qualifying currently are cleve,sox, nats and sox. I stayed away from the cleve,nats and hou last night but played sox and sf (sf didn't qualify but they were favorable against a high negative team) cleve and nats covered but sox did not and sf did. I play 1-3 plays per team. ML,RL essentially making it a -1 position and tt over. If ML is low (less than -25) then I play ml only and tt depends on the line, I play most 4 or below and 4.5 and 5 if not juiced too heavy or caps right and never a 5.5 unless it's a really favorable situation. Nothing is cast in concrete and some decisions are very subjective. One of the issues I have with this strategy is the high juice like the sox last night where when you lose you lose big and the following game requires a substantial investment to cover the previous night's loss. i do not believe in chases (experience talking here ha ha) so i try to limit it to two games and never double up and only go for three if I have a lot going for me in the 3rd game, that has not happened yet. I will try to post my plays going forward but to be honest I am so busy that at times I barely have time to pop in here and tail never mind cap the games (bad plan but this site helps so much, thanks guys)
 
Blaser nice under ump and...

St. Louis:
  • Under is 7-3 in STL last 10 Wed. games.
  • Under 38-28 on season for STL
  • STL are 10-3 in Wachas last 13 starts.
Philadelphia:
  • Over is 7-1 in PHI last 8 overall.
  • PHI 2-7 in Arrietas last 9 starts.
Wacha 18-8 following loss when giving up over 3 runs, but the over is 19-7 :shocked:
starter = Michael Wacha and s:L and s:SRA > 3
SU: 18-8 (1.46, 69.2%) avg line: -127.3 / 116.0 on / against: +$876 / -$921 ROI: +24.4% / -31.4%
RL: 14-12 (0.65, 53.8%) avg line: 110.9 / -127.9 on / against: +$449 / -$697 ROI: +14.9% / -18.8%
OU: 19-7-0 (1.75, 73.1%) avg total: 7.9 over / under: +$1,125 / -$1,420 ROI: +39.7% / -49.1%

 
Just to start SF seems way undervalued Urena is simply a hopeless pitcher in the day going against a extremely good one
Urena 0-4 in the day with a 6.43 day ERA
vs Holland and a low 2. Forget any under bet in Houston
 
Teams with at least 13 unders in a row are only 1-6 in history of SDQL
new_tounge_wink.gif

..and NYY won the one yesterday
View attachment 32917

Seattle:
  • SEA 19-7 in their last 26 games on grass.
  • SEA 35-17 in their last 52 overall.
NY Yankees:
  • Under is 14-0 in NYY last 14 games overall
  • Under is 9-1-1 in NYY last 11 home games.
  • Under is 16-4-1 in NYY last 21 on grass.
  • Under is 16-4-1 in NYY last 21 games as a favorite.
 
What do Houston and Cleveland have in common.
Both are 8-3 on Wednesday
unfortunately for WS Lopezn has a 8.30 ERA vs Cleveland and Kluber is playing off a loss. BLOOD
Playing Detroit
Need to look nore as Holland has bad history
 
Holland has bad history but we are talking 2011 5 runs less than a inning
playing SF
 
Tough to go with Felix in the Bronx, but hey he just needs to be decent. I mean -200 for Loaig....whatever? :) And the Mariners have lost 2 in a row.

ADD: Mariners 7-0 is Game 2 after losing G1. Ump is certainly not averse to Mariners victories 19-7, which is above average cosidering ho bad recent mariners teams have been.
 
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Gaius.T said:
Tough to go with Felix in the Bronx, but hey he just needs to be decent. I mean -200 for Loaig....whatever? :) And the Mariners have lost 2 in a row.
Click to expand...

feliz was tough against the sox in his last outing....may have been his best stuff this year...but i'm guessing
 
Price rocking with Wilson BHP. 7-1 and 1.79ERA
Sox like righties but Lynn with 1.89 ERA (3 starts) against them so far.

Considering these stats the total @9 seems high.
 
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Felix on 5 7.82 ERA this stuff is real but can be overcome. At this stage can he?
 
lean


































In Milwaukee at Pitt days rest large for Pitt. Kuhl on 4 2.45 ERA Brent 5.19 extreme good day of the week for both sides Kuhl massive plus history with Milwaukee
 
Probably just a pass in the Padre game. Montas off a terrible loss to Houston looks good for a bounceback but poor day record and his only 5 days rest was the Houston crush
 
Texas pitcher whose somewhat limited splits all look bad has a totally new catcher
 
Average bet over in KC Junis has worst rest, is worst at night and has a catcher based on over 40 innings with 6.17 ERA.
Already mentioned opponent
 
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