JULY MLB

[mrpickem]

Had a good month finally, even after giving back about 50u over last 3 days.

JUNE: [270-229 +103.33u]
LAST: [2-7 -29.79u]

7/1 TUE

• 5/4.35 PHI u8½ -115
• 7/4.35 PIT -161
• 6/5.22 SF o9 -115
• 4/2.72 NYY -147
• 4/4.40 NYY -1½ +110
• 4/5.76 SAC +144
• 4/2.76 SAC +1½ -145
• 8/4.17 TEX -192
• 5/4.17 KAN o8 -120
• 5/5.00 MIA u7½ +100
• 6/6.60 DET -1½ +110
• 5/4.35 WAS u9½ -115
• 6/6.00 CIN +100
• 6/8.76 LAA +146
• 4/2.86 LAA +1½ -140
• 5/8.00 CLE +160
• 4/2.76 CLE +1½ -145
• 4/2.40 HOU -167
• 6/5.45 HOU -1½ -110
• 5/4.41 HOU o11 -113

randoms...

• STREAKS: MIA 7, PIT 4, CLE 4
• ROAD TEAMS ML 97-92 51.3% +6.3% ROI L14 DAYS
• ROAD TEAMS RL 239-158 60.2% +6.1% ROI L30 DAYS
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  
  • SANCHEZ(PHI) 13-3 +29.7% @HOME w/3.198
  • BOYD(CHC) 11-3 +33% @HOME w/3.887
  • HOLMES(NYM) 6-2 +13.5% @HOME w/3.073
  • FITTS(BOS) 0-4 -100% @HOME w/2.209
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  
  • BAZ(TAM) 8-1 +74.3% w/3.95 / 1.20 / 4.391
  • GORDON(HOU) 6-2 +54.2% w/3.98 / 1.30 / 3.462
  • SANCHEZ(PHI) 6-2 +21% w/2.68 / 1.11 / 3.196
  • DEGROM(TEX) 6-2 +19.3% w/1.55 / 0.76 / 3.282
  • DOLLANDER(COL) 1-5 -59% w/5.08 / 1.38 / 4.696
• Note: ALL AVG/xFIP #'s ARE LAST 365 DAYS
• ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
  
  • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 32-8 +19.5% ROI
  • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 28-12 +15.9% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

I PULLED MOST OF THE NUMBERS, BUT DIDN'T HAVE TIME TO GET MY PLAYS IN AS I HAVE AN EARLY APPT. SHOULD BE BACK SOON TO FINISH PLAYS. HAD A GOOD DAY YESTERDAY.

 

[mrpickem]

JULY: [10-5 +22.45u]
LAST: [10-5-5 +22.45u]

7/2 WED

• 5/4.17 STL -120
• 8/6.96 PIT u8 -115
• 6/5.55 1-SD -108
• 5/4.76 NYY o9 -105
• 5/6.50 SF +130
• 5/4.76 ARI u8½ -105
• 4/7.52 SAC +188
• 5/4.55 TAM u9 -110
• 5/3.72 TEX -134
• 5/4.37 TEX u8½ -114
• 5/8.05 KAN +161
• 5/5.25 SEA u7 +105
• 5/4.30 MIN -116
• 4/5.80 MIN -1½ +145
• 8/8.40 MIA u8½ +105
• 7/9.59 1-WAS +137
• 5/5.00 1-WAS u9 +100
• 5/5.55 LAA +111
• 4/2.33 LAA +1½ -172
• 5/7.15 CLE +143
• 5/5.00 CHC u8 +100
• 7/2.97 HOU -236
• 5/3.03 HOU -1½ -165
• 3/7.95 CHW +265
• 4/5.60 CHW +1½ +140
• 7/7.00 2-WAS +100
• 5/5.00 2-WAS u8 +100

randoms...

• STREAKS: MIA 8, PIT 5, SF -4, CLE -5
• ROAD TEAMS ML 94-91 50.8% +5.0% ROI L14 DAYS
• ROAD TEAMS RL 235-158 59.8% +5.4% ROI L30 DAYS
• UNDERS 48-39-1 55.2% +5.6% ROI L7 DAYS
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • SANCHEZ(PHI) 13-3 +29.7% @HOME w/3.198
  • FITTS(BOS) 0-4 -100% @HOME w/2.209
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • GRAY(STL) 7-1 +53.1% w/3.21 / 1.10 / 2.810
  • BROWN(HOU) 6-2 +26.3% w/2.01 / 0.87 / 3.343
  • KERSHAW(LAD) 6-2 +23.2% w/3.03 / 1.19 / 4.330
  • SANCHEZ(PHI) 6-2 +21% w/2.68 / 1.11 / 3.196
  • WARREN(NYY) 7-2 +20.3% w/4.06 / 1.29 / 3.143
  • KELLER(PIT) 2-6 -49.2% w/3.61 / 1.10 / 4.103
  • BIBEE(CLE) 2-6 -52.7% w/3.99 / 1.15 / 4.155
  • CAMERON(KAN) 1-7 -74.8% w/3.18 / 1.02 / 4.390
• Note: ALL AVG/xFIP #'s ARE LAST 365 DAYS
• ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
  • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 33-8 +20.4% ROI
  • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 28-13 +13.9% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

JULY: [23-19 +23.86u]
LAST: [13-14 +1.41u]

7/3 THU

• 6/6.78 TOR +113
• 6/4.96 SEA -121
• 6/3.35 HOU -179
• 5/4.17 HOU -1½ -120
• 5/4.35 HOU o11 -115
• 4/2.66 DET -150
• 4/4.20 DET -1½ +105
• 6/8.34 LAA +139
• 5/4.55 LAD o9 -110

​

randoms...

• STREAKS: PIT 5, TOR 4, SF -4, CLE -6
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • PETERSON(NYM) 13-2 +44.9% @HOME w/3.873
  • WOO(SEA) 10-3 +34.5% @HOME w/3.602
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • QUINTANA(MIL) 4-1 +53.2% w/4.15 / 1.65 / 4.353
  • Note: ALL AVG/xFIP #'s ARE LAST 365 DAYS

 

[mrpickem]

JULY: [26-25 +13.33u]
LAST: [3-6 -10.53u]

7/4 FRI

• 5/4.29 PHI u8½ -117
• 4/5.48 STL +137
• 4/2.80 STL +1½ -143
• 5/4.35 STL o9½ -115
• 5/5.15 CLE +103
• 4/2.42 CLE +1½ -165
• 5/4.76 CLE u8 -105
• 5/7.55 BOS -1½ +155
• 5/4.41 BOS o8½ -113
• 5/4.35 NYY o9 -115
• 5/4.35 SD u9 -115
• 3/4.80 BAL +160
• 3/2.31 BAL +1½ -130
• 5/4.35 ATL u9 -115
• 4/3.35 CHW -120
• 4/5.20 CHW -1½ +130
• 5/7.95 HOU +159
• 4/3.20 HOU +1½ -125
• 4/6.00 SF -1½ +150
• 5/4.50 SF o10 -111

randoms...

• STREAKS: PIT 6, TOR 5, LAD 4, NYY -4, CLE -7
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • WOO(SEA) 10-4 +24.9% @HOME W/3.602
  • LUZARDO(PIT) 6-2 +33.7% @HOME w/3.249
  • ROCKER(TEX) 2-5 -40.8% AWAY w/3.768
  • PRIESTER(MIL) 1-5 -63.3% AWAY w/3.809
  • PADDACK(MIN) 1-6 -71.7% @HOME w/4.728
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • GIOLITO(BOS) 6-2 +55.3% w/3.40 / 1.35 / 4.050
  • LAUER(TOR) 5-1 +65.2% w/3.76 / 1.37 / 4.148
  • ABBOTT(CIN) 6-2 +45.2% w/1.61 / 0.99 / 4.953
  • MORTON(BAL) 5-1 +53.3% w/2.90 / 1.32 / 3.994
  • PRIESTER(MIL) 4-1 +48.1% w/1.91 / 1.06 / 3.809
  • SEARS(SAC) 2-7 -40.3% w/7.56 / 1.63 / 4.457
  • PADDACK(MIN) 1-7 -75.7% w/5.40 / 1.29 / 4.728
  • Note: ALL xFIP #'s ARE FOR THE L365 DAYS
• ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
  • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 34-9 +18.2% ROI
  • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 29-14 +12.7% ROI
• BEST RESCORDS IN MLB
• 

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

JULY: [40-31 +49.98u]
LAST: [14-6 +36.65u]

My MLB action by day of the week


7/5 SAT

• 5/7.70 LAA +154
• 5/4.55 LAA o9 -110
• 6/5.71 WAS -105
• 5/5.00 BOS o10 +100
• 4/5.28 NYM +132
• 7/8.82 HOU +126
• 5/2.96 HOU +1½ -169
• 4/4.08 CHW +102
• 4/2.30 CHW +1½ -174
• 5/8.25 PIT +165
• 5/3.70 PIT +1½ -135
• 5/4.76 SEA u7½ -105

​

randoms...

• STREAKS: TOR 6, CHC 4, STL -4, NYY -5, CLE -8
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  
  • NELSON(ARI) 6-2 +38.5% @HOME W/3.281
  • CANNON(CHW) 4-10 -12.6% AWAY w/4.963
  • MARQUIZ(COL) 1-5 -39.2% @HOME w/4.735
  • CORBIN(TEX) 4-10 -41.3% AWAY w/3.675
  • KREMER(BAL) 5-13 -40.7% AWAY w/4.467
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  
  • VALDEZ(HOU) 8-0 +69.7% w/1.87 / 1.11 / 2.601
  • LAUER(TOR) 5-1 +65.2% w/3.76 / 1.37 / 4.148
  • PATRICK(MIL) 2-6 -38.5% w/3.70 / 1.36 / 3.971
  • CORBIN(TEX) 2-6 -47.5% w/5.40 / 1.30 / 3.675
  • KOLEK(SD) 2-6 -49% w/4.36 / 1.29 / 4.171
  • BUEHLER(BOS) 2-6 -49.9% w/8.64 / 1.95 / 4.667
  • SEVERINO(SAC) 1-8 -73.8% w/5.51 / 1.44 / 3.959
• Note: ALL xFIP #'s ARE FOR THE L365 DAYS
• ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
  
  • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 35-9 +19.1% ROI
  • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 29-15 +11% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

Note...SEA added as lean Friday after starter announced for PIT

Top teams by model action and model action by day of the week.

 

[mrpickem]

Crazy that Marlins have been 1st or 2nd in 15-day hot list for over 2 weeks straight!

 

[John Doe]

Mrpickem, thanks for all you do to help us beat the books, thanks for posting the models plays but you I think you accidentally deleted your actual plays for today, I'm on the same page as your model with the Phillies -1½-110, I always feel better if we are on the same side, have a good day.

 

[mrpickem]

JULY: [48-35 +65.88u]
LAST: [8-4 +15.90u]

7/6 SUN

• 7/3.08 PHI -227
• 5/5.50 PHI u8½ +110
• 7/7.42 MIA +104
• 6/6.00 MIA u8 +100
• 5/8.85 STL +177
• 5/4.35 STL +1½ -115
• 5/3.07 TOR -163
• 6/5.71 CLE u7½ -105
• 4/5.48 BAL +137
• 4/2.58 BAL +1½ -155
• 5/4.10 NYY -1½ -122
• 4/3.74 CHW -107
• 4/5.60 CHW -1½ +140
• 6/6.00 PIT +100
• 5/2.27 PIT +1½ -220
• 8/7.62 SEA u6½ -105
• 5/6.70 KAN +134
• 5/3.23 KAN +1½ -155
• 6/9.90 HOU +165
• 4/3.33 HOU +1½ -120
• 6/5.45 SF o10 -110

MODEL PLAYS UPDATED:



randoms...

• STREAKS: TOR 7, NYM 4, NYY -6, CLE -9
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • BOYD(CHC) 12-3 +34.1% @HOME W/3.887
  • GAUSMAN(TOR) 11-4 +30.6% AWAY w/4.638
  • WHEELER(PHI) 13-3 +21% @HOME w/3.030
  • LEITER(TEX) 2-6 -53.8% AWAY w/4.747
  • FEDDE(STL) 4-13 -55% AWAY w/4.584
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • CABRERA(MIA) 6-2 +70.6% w/1.93 / 1.10 / 4.050
  • GAUSMAN(TOR) 6-2 +46.4% w/3.75 / 1.17 / 4.638
  • RASMUSSEN(TAM) 6-2 +32.5% w/2.61 / 0.99 / 3.550
  • SKUBAL(DET) 7-1 +22.8% w/1.64 / 0.75 / 2.615
  • SKENES(PIT) 6-3 +24.6% w/1.44 / 0.83 / 2.722
  • FEDDE(STL) 2-6 -44.9% w/6.03 / 1.59 / 4.584
  • DOLLANDER(COL) 1-6 -64.9% w/6.39 / 1.55 / 4.745
  • HOLMES(ATL) 2-6 -59% w/2.84 / 1.31 / 3.686
  • LEITER(TEX) 1-7 -74% w/4.25 / 1.37 / 4.747
• Note: ALL xFIP #'s ARE FOR THE L365 DAYS
• ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
  • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 36-9 +20.2% ROI
  • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 30-15 +12.2% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

Mrpickem, thanks for all you do to help us beat the books, thanks for posting the models plays but you I think you accidentally deleted your actual plays for today, I'm on the same page as your model with the Phillies -1½-110, I always feel better if we are on the same side, have a good day.

My model only picks sides, no RL or totals. They are there, under the model record...but I updated them in the last post after updating lines, a couple minor changes. The model is based on value and can change when line changes and/or starter, Best of luck, let's get 'em!

Model plays:

 

[mrpickem]

It's been a stellar 30-day run. Best in recent memory, for sure. Here's to keeping it going...

JULY: [61-43 +85.74u]
LAST: [13-8 +19.86u]

7/7 MON

• 5/3.13 MIA +1½ -160
• 5/5.00 CIN u9 +100
• 5/4.76 LAD o7½ -105
• 4/4.76 ARI +119
• 5/2.91 ARI +1½ -172
• 5/4.35 SD u8½ -115
• 4/2.30 TOR -174
• 3/2.86 TOR -1½ -105
• 5/4.72 CHW u8½ -106
• 5/3.33 CLE +1½ -150
• 6/5.22 HOU u7½ -115
• 5/6.25 TEX -1½ +125
• 5/4.76 LAA u7½ -105
• 4/4.20 BOS u9½ +105
• 4/5.28 PIT +132
• 4/2.58 PIT +1½ -155
• 5/5.00 KAN u8½ +100

​

randoms...

• STREAKS: TOR 8, ATL -4, CLE -10
• ROAD DOGS ML 35-41 46.1% +7.8% ROI L10 DAYS
• ROAD DOGS RL 151-82 64.8% +9.6% ROI L30 DAYS
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • BAZ(TAM) 10-4 +46.5% AWAY W/4.391
  • GORDON(HOU) 4-1 +66.3% @HOME w/3.658
  • CAMERON(KAN) 1-4 -59.6% @HOME w/4.399
  • HEANEY(PIT) 3-13 -65.4% AWAY w/4.264
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • BAZ(TAM) 7-1 +69.2% w/3.33 / 1.09 / 4.391
  • GORDON(HOU) 6-2 +52.9% w/4.17 / 1.34 / 3.658
  • BERRIOS(TOR) 6-2 +40.5% w/2.98 / 1.01 / 3.820
  • SANCHEZ(PHI) 7-2 +26.1% w/2.51 / 1.06 / 3.351
  • DEGROM(TEX) 6-2 +15.3% w/1.97 / 0.80 / 3.262
  • BIBEE(CLE) 2-6 -52.7% w/4.34 / 1.18 / 4.115
  • CAMERON(KAN) 1-7 -74.8% w/3.09 / 1.12 / 4.399
• Note: ALL xFIP #'s ARE FOR THE L365 DAYS
• ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
  • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 33-11 +6.8% ROI
  • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 25-19 +4.3% ROI
  • COL UNDERS AWAY 27-15-2 64.3% +22.3% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

Model had a very good day Sunday and has been solid of late...even the leans have been pretty good over last 30 days. No plays today and only 2 leans without starters not announced. I use a rating slightly below league average for unannounced starters. I'm going to try to get back and rerun the numbers later this morning after we get starter info for Tigs & Gints.

Even after a loss, the Fish remain atop the 15-day-hot-list for an amazing 16 of last 17 days! HOU is hot on their trail after going into LA and sweeping the Doyers(PURE GOLD FOR ME GOING 6-0 ML/RL for +36.17u)

Even though SDQL sometimes lists starters here, they are more speculation than solid listing...so I don't include in final selections unless they are actually listed at MLB.com or my book.

 

[STEED]

 

[mrpickem]

Still not seeing a definite starter in DET although seen Flaherty probable in a couple places. With updated odds a Roupp in SF, model now has 3 leans: CIN, PHI, DET with DET becoming a legit play if Flaherty starts at current odds. Not that he's great, but he does rate out a couple notches above average. I'm gonna just ride with what I already got, and I doubt I'll look again.

 

[mrpickem]

JULY: [69-52 +71.79u]
LAST: [8-9 -13.95u]

7/8 TUE

• 6/5.00 WAS +1½ -120
• 5/5.25 STL u8½ +105
• 6/4.08 SF -147
• 5/4.35 SF u8 -115
• 6/5.40 DET u8½ -111
• 5/4.55 TOR -1½ -110
• 7/3.52 HOU -199
• 5/4.76 NYM o10 -105
• 5/2.98 PIT +1½ -168
• 6/6.06 SAC +101
• 5/5.15 ATL o10½ +103

​

​

randoms...

• STREAKS: TOR 9, (BOS, DET) 4, (PIT, ATL, LAD) -4
• DOGS ON ML 56-58 49.1% +11.8% ROI L10 DAYS
• DOGS ON RL 57-26 68.7% +18.3% ROI L7 DAYS
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • IMANAGA(CHC) 9-2 +56% AWAY W/3.466
  • GRAY(STL) 13-4 +66.3% @HOME w/2.866
  • BELLO(BOS) 12-5 +30.8% @HOME w/3.828
  • KERSHAW(LAD) 6-2 +32.5% AWAY w/4.330
  • BASSITT(TOR) 3-10 -52.7% @HOME w/4.301
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • BROWN(HOU) 7-1 +43.5% w/2.28 / 0.99 / 3.2.07
  • KERSHAW(LAD) 7-1 +39.5% w/2.68 / 1.18 / 4.330
  • BELLO(BOS) 2-5 -37.1% w/2.75 / 1.19 / 3.828
• Note: ALL xFIP #'s ARE FOR THE L365 DAYS
• ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
  • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 34-11 +7.5% ROI
  • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 26-19 +5.9% ROI
  • COL UNDERS AWAY 27-16-2 62.8% +19.5% ROI

https://www.tiktok.com/video/7491914798402145578

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

Marlins keeping it up. Have now won 10 straight on the road!

Best road team on the season where it matters...PROFIT!

 

[mrpickem]

JULY: [77-54 +96.82u]
LAST: [8-2-1 +25.03u]

Thanks to the gambling gods for them totals...



...and the 9th in frisco

https://packaged-media.redd.it/oby8f89n0sbf1/pb/m2-res_480p.mp4?m=DASHPlaylist.mpd&v=1&e=1752066000&s=b2368b5ac411570e7cb1f1250a610e38739ac393

SF radio announcer's iconic call

https://www.reddit.com/r/SFGiants/comments/1lv9z45/flemings_call_of_the_walkoff

7/9 WED

• 5/7.20 MIL +144
• 8/7.62 MIL u8½ -105
• 5/5.70 SF +114
• 6/6.00 SD u8 +100
• 5/5.35 WAS +107
• 5/4.54 STL u8 -110
• 6/5.30 SD u8 -113
• 6/5.00 DET u8½ -120
• 6/5.45 CHW u8½ -110
• 4/5.08 CLE +127
• 5/2.94 CLE +1½ -170
• 5/6.05 LAA +121
• 4/2.96 LAA +1½ -135
• 5/6.85 BAL +137
• 7/2.45 BOS -285
• 4/2.77 BOS -1½ -144
• 6/5.22 MIN u9½ -115
• 6/6.00 KAN u8½ +100
• 6/6.30 SAC +105

randoms...

• STREAKS: TOR 10, (BOS, DET) 5, SF 4, (WAS, CIN) -4, (PIT, ATL, LAD) -5
• TOR 13-2 +64% ROI LAST 15 DAYS
• DOGS ON RL 57-27 67.9% +16.6% ROI L7 DAYS
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • ROCKER(TEX) 2-6 -48.2% AWAY w/3.905
  • SENZATELA(COL) 2-7 -43.6% AWAY w/4.996
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • GIOLITO(BOS) 6-2 +55.5% w/ 4.021 xFIP
  • ABBOTT(CIN) 6-2 +52.5% w/ 4.672
  • LAUER(TOR) 5-1 +39.5% w/ 4.023
  • PFAADT(ARI) 2-6 -49.7% w/ 3.193
  • LUZARDO(PHI) 2-6 -52.8% w/ 3.272
  • ELDER(ATL) 1-5 -78.9% w/ 3.994
• ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
  • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 35-11 +8.1% ROI
  • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 27-19 +7.4% ROI
  • COL UNDERS AWAY 27-17-2 61.4% +17.1% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

CUBS new #1 in model rating as doyers continue to struggle. Jays and HOU continue climbing while Tigs get no respect.

 

[Dsn150]

Another great Wednesday…

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

Dodgers 6 games losing streak first time since Aug 2019, but crazy thing is they still have 2nd best record behind only Detroit.

Two sites I use extensively are not updating so far today, so i'm only playing my one model play so far. Hope to try again in a couple of hours.



JULY: [89-60 +121.91u]
LAST: [12-6-1 +25.09u]

7/10 WED

• 6/5.83 SEA -103

randoms...

• STREAKS: BOS 6, (MIL, KAN) 4, (PIT, LAD) -6
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • REA(CHC) 8-2 +65.9% AWAY w/ 4.185
  • SORAKA(WAS) 2-5 -26.3% AWAY w/ 3.737
  • STRIDER(ATL) 1-4 -65.3% AWAY w/ 3.660
  • CANNON(CHW) 3-8 -34.3% @HOME w/ 4.963
  • PADDACK(MIN) 2-6 -52.3% @HOME w/ 4.602
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • ALLEN(CLE) 2-5 -39.6% w/4.05 / 1.44 / 4.686
  • SORAKA(WAS) 2-6 -42.7% w/5.40 / 1.14 / 3.737
  • PADDACK(MIN) 2-6 -52.8% w/4.64 / 1.22 / 4.602
  • BUEHLER(BOS) 2-6 -54.3% w/6.25 / 1.58 / 4.667

 

[mrpickem]

adding a few more...

• 4/4.08 TAM +102
• 4/1.95 TAM +1½ -205
• 5/4.35 TAM o9 -115
• 5/5.85 CHW +117
• 5/4.90 ATL o10½ -102

randoms...

• STREAKS: BOS 6, (MIL, KAN) 4, (PIT, LAD) -6
• DOGS ON ML 75-86 46.6% +5.9% ROI L14 DAYS
• DOGS ON RL 53-27 66.2% +13.9% ROI L7 DAYS

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

Shitty night, but every game was close, esp SEA with 5-0 lead going to bottom 8th. Oh well, I've had some good days of late so likely due to give some back. SDQL sites not updated again, they're trying to throw me off my rhythm I guess. Gonna grab these 2 now as they probably move. Back later with the rest...


JULY: [90-64 +103.86u]
LAST: [1-4-1 -18.05u]

7/11 FRI

• 6/5.20 STL -115
• 6/4.94 SF -122

randoms...

• STREAKS: BOS 7, (NYY, MIL, KAN) 4, (PIT, LAD) -6
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  
  • DOBBINS(BOS) 5-1 +61.8% @HOME w/ 4.046
  • SKUBAL(DET) 14-4 +18.4% @HOME w/ 2.885
  • PRIESTER(MIL) 5-1 +51.5% @HOME w/ 3.876
  • FLEXEN(CHC) 1-6 -53.6% AWAY w/ 5.039
  • CANNON(CHW) 3-8 -34.3% @HOME w/ 4.928
  • LEITER(TEX) 2-7 -58.9% AWAY w/ 4.704
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  
  • DOBBINS(BOS) 4-0 +136.2 w/4.21 / 1.25 / 4.046
  • BERGERT(SD) 4-1 +91.5 w/3.13 / 1.30 / na
  • NELSON(ARI) 6-1 +64.7 w/2.79 / 0.95 / 3.241
  • RASMUSSEN(TAM) 7-2 +41.4 w/2.82 / 1.01 / 3.518
  • PRIESTER(MIL) 5-1 +52.5 w/2.90 / 1.31 / 3.876
  • SENGA(NYM) 4-0 +49.1 w/1.47 / 1.11 / 4.058
  • SKUBAL(DET) 7-1 +21.4 w/2.82 / 0.81 / 2.885
  • WACHA(KAN) 2-6 -41.5% w/3.83 / 1.29 / 4.106
  • PARKER(WAS) 2-6 -42% w/4.72 / 1.38 / 4.404
  • WILLIAMS(CLE) 2-6 -58.6% w/3.61 / 1.41 / 4.057
  • SEVERINO(OAK) 1-7 -70.5% w/5.39 / 1.39 / 3.601
  • HOLMES(ATL) 2-7 -63.6% w/3.48 / 1.25 / 3.608
  • LEITER(TEX) 1-7 -74% w/4.32 / 1.33 / 4.704

 

[mrpickem]

7/11 FRI
...adds

• 5/2.25 CIN -222
• 4/3.48 CIN -1½ -115
• 5/5.00 SD u8 +100
• 5.26/6 LAD +114
• 5/4.58 BOS -109
• 5/5.25 BOS u9 +105
• 4/1.76 DET -227
• 5/7.30 SAC +146
• 5/4.17 TOR o10½ -120
• 5/6.00 MIA +120
• 5/2.92 MIA +1½ -171
• 5/4.76 BAL u9 -105
• 4/4.68 PIT +117
• 5/2.50 PIT +1½ -200
• 5/3.27 LAA +1½ -153

randoms...

• DOGS ON ML 95-82 49.1% +11.1% ROI L14 DAYS
• DOGS ON RL 107-54 66.5% +14.7% ROI L14 DAYS
• ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
  
  • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 36-11 +8.7% ROI
  • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 28-19 +8.8% ROI
  • COL UNDERS AWAY 27-18-2 60% +14.5% ROI

I bought off the Giants. UPDATED model plays with updated lines and a couple changes.