July Discussion

Whoever it was I was reading tried to get as close as possible to these teams situation today going back to I think ‘96-‘97 thru ‘16-17, 5 weeks or less left in season. Needed to be within 6 points of safety. Well here let me just give you the link! lol. I’m not sure how much stock to put in it overall but I think makes a case for some the things we discussing.

Do Relegation Threatened Teams Perform Better Or Worse At The End Of A Premier League Season? - The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective

By Andrew Puopolo Two weeks ago, I wrote an article discussing whether midtable teams perform worse at the end of the Premier League season because they have nothing to play for. But what about those teams who are desperately trying to avoid relegation? Are they taking points from those midtable...
harvardsportsanalysis.org harvardsportsanalysis.org
 
Then there a link below that article where he attempted to do the same thing with teams sitting safe but nowhere to go like palace.
 
got absolutely smoked today, joke disallowed goals and a missed penalty. Fun fun fun

tomorrow's interests:
So'ton +1.5
Granada +1.25

5dimes is just refusing to put lines up besides for the next day now
 
tomorrow's interests:
Sheff UTD +0.5
Genoa +0.25
Leganes +0.75
Osasuna +2
Levante +1 (this one makes no fucking sense to me and i need some help)
Valladolid +0.25
Granada +0.5
Villarreal +1.25
Sevilla +0.25

yep like all La Liga dogs pretty much, but that Levante line is insane
 
I’m trying to make the case for Celta but I agree with you that line seems off. To get a goal in that one seems crazy, I feel like push be the worst case. Kinda fancy draw here but makes more sense just to take the goal. I don’t really like levante to win but man that ml a pretty crazy price when I think it be a tight match.
 
I like Genoa/Torino o2.5 quite a bit. Seems inevitable both teams score which I suppose another way to play it but a bet I havnt begun to investigate as of yet.
 
2daBank said:
And that Celta line keeps going up!! Dunno what the hell going on there? I jumped on Levante +1.25
Click to expand...

yeah i really don't get it. Recognize i'm not a soccer expert, but i've learned not to let these things scare me off in other sports

Whoever it is, they're really sure that Celta (who i like in general) is winning this one handily. Maybe the Levante lineup is gonna be empty
 
GWarner27 said:
yeah i really don't get it. Recognize i'm not a soccer expert, but i've learned not to let these things scare me off in other sports

Whoever it is, they're really sure that Celta (who i like in general) is winning this one handily. Maybe the Levante lineup is gonna be empty
Click to expand...

I’m obviously no expert and like Celta as well (one the reasons I’m confident is feel I know this Celta side about as well as anyone thus far!). We off to a fantastic start! 2-0 giving me hopes of cashing the ml! Celta just got one back tho :(
 
La Liga wraps up with simultaneous starts Sunday for all teams besides Valladolid, just as they did today for some reason (La Liga must be in contract for two windows and pick a match with nothing riding on it to play in the first one). After some success with the Bundesliga's final day, here's what is in place for Spain's top league

Champion: Real Madrid
  • still have Champions League for which they want to remain sharp, but why take the risk of injury to the core of Benzema/Ramos/Courtois/Casemiro/Carvajal/Varane. Should be rotating
Runner-up: Barcelona
  • ditto RMA but Messi/Lenglet/Pique/Semedo/Ter Stegan so should see an entirely new defense and GK making goals a possibility if you're a total player. I'm not, but maybe this will be the time for my debut
Champions League: Atleti & Sevilla clinched
  • Sevilla in Europa League has some interest in staying sharp, i'm starting to be boring, but sat their offensive weapons today initially though I did see Banega on the pitch late in a 0-0 draw.
  • Atleti seemed to play some people today and won handily, have UCL upcoming
Europa League (i think top-7 so three spots): Villarreal clinched, Sociedad (55), Getafe (54), Valencia (53), Granada (53), Bilbao (51), Osasuna (51)
  • Villarreal last match so maybe they play the full lineup after the loss to Madrid today
  • Sociedad could not start Isak in the past couple matches, he's young and probably at best a substitute or gets substituted early. Offense has been a problem for them since the re-start, not good to be missing the best striker. Last match of the season for them as well, clearly not optimistic about Isak though Willian Jose is solid in his spot
  • Getafe has Inter in the Europa league remaining and a victory means they are assured Europa league again next year. That's a big deal financially for most clubs, don't see why that would be different here and surely they must have a bit of a problem with losing to city-rival Atleti today. Should play everybody
  • Valencia has underperformed all season as evidenced by the negative GD entering the lock-down. Already eliminated from Europa League play, but should still be very interested in returning. A win could see them finish 6th so that is definitely a possibility and they should be all-in on Sunday. Some transfer rumors about Torres moving to MCFC, he's been playing limited minutes lately (especially vs Leganes but did enter late in the game and was making a difference drawing a red card from Leganes). Since the deal isn't done reportedly, should see him in a game that matters. However, if something changes and he is held out of the lineup again, then he may not be there. Curious to see if he's in the team, that might give us our answer. Plenty of depth on this squad, though nobody can match Torres as Cheryshev is older and is used more in short bursts. Valencia has also had trouble scoring, minus Torres would be even worse
  • Granada is a great story and the kids (loanees from Real Madrid, Barca, Valencia or Sevilla can't remember which) will be out there. Foulquier didn't start today after playing a ton of minutes since the re-start. Wonder about the keeper who sat at least once maybe due to injury, though if they want to win this and they have an outside chance at Europa, probably see the best they've got
  • Bilbao big loss today and Unai Simon with a red card misses the finale. They are a goalkeeper factory so that might be the best position for them to lose somebody, however Simon is awesome and his absence will always be a big deal. Money makes a difference to this club since they only use Basque players and overpay to retain them, should see a full lineup since there's a lot of pride in this Club and there's an outside chance
  • Osasuna playing with house money may have been a relegation favorite, don't see a reason to sit people
Mid-tables: honestly no idea who will do what here and youth may get some playing time for development reasons
  • Levante has older strikers, but a team full of consistent rotation for each match since the re-start so who knows. Wouldn't be surprised to see a decent lineup since they've been resting everybody every so often
  • Eibar lost two players to contracts a couple weeks ago, but took advantage of the smash-and-grab to handle Valladolid today.
  • Real Betis in a disastrous year with four managers or something like that. May not care at all since they're long eliminated from the Europa League, but also may be looking toward next year where they have to perform or there will likely be lots of changes (may be lots anyway)
  • Alaves safe today with a victory after being in the relegation battle. Could see some rest since they're secure
  • Valladolid were great late pushing Barcelona and were controlling the first 25 minutes even hitting the woodwork before Eibar scored on a counter and then the backup keeper had a disastrous slip (maybe injury as he was replaced by the 3rd string keeper early 2H) that allowed an Inui walk-in goal to see 0-2 after controlling the first half-hour. Valladolid made it interesting adding a goal and nearly tied it before another goal against the run of play clinched it for Eibar
Relegation: Celta Vigo (36), Leganes (35)
Tiebreaker is first h2h, CV won 1-0 February 22 after losing 3-2 December 8. H2H points even, H2H GD even, GD Celta has a 9-goal advantage thanks to 9 more goals for so they have the tiebreaker.
  • Celta Vigo is an older side who i'm very surprised to see in this predicament. They are far better than Leganes, but they don't play on Sunday so it doesn't matter. A draw does not save them as a Leganes win would pass them and leave all the tiebreakers favoring Celta moot. Should see everything CV has
  • Leganes has had an incredible run from second bottom to even get to this point. Another win could save them and it's kinda incredible, but they play defense and going for a win sounds difficult yet they keep doing it. Expect a 4-5-1 though they get two defensive-minded players back from suspension and that'll help, but a draw will not be enough. Should go for a win and push for it, meaning a tie at halftime and they're going forward at every opportunity thus leaving a defensive side without its normal back side
Relegated:
  • Mallorca is filled with loanees and there may be some youth team starts here as there are some very young players (15yo) in the organization. Will likely see players who will feature next year, not sure about loanees who are very important and all over the starting lineup (Pozo, Kubo, Hernandez)
  • Espanyol had a very disappointing year and have done very little since the re-start nor before, despite being in the Europa League. Will be preparing for Segunda and that will be a war, expect them to play guys who will be on the team next year if they're already on the roster so there could be a youth movement compared to the bigger names who will have to be moved due to finances
 
Hardly anything today so took a chance on EPL which been the toughest league for me.

West ham -.25 +105.
 
I jumped all over Atalanta -1.25 for Saturday morning! Figure the closer we get to that match the higher that line will go as it no secret the incredible form Atalanta is!

Also gonna look into ac Milan in hopes of a Milan/Atalanta ml parlay!
 
Also jumped on sassuolo +113. I can’t imagine that line doesn’t shift by close!! I’m certainly no expert in identifying what soccer lines gonna do, I’m especially baffled by some the bigger lines but imo Sassuolo getting plus anything a great price so I would expect it closes closer to pk if not -110 ish. Cagliari has been pretty strong defensively but they lack scoring punch and just don’t think they can get a clean sheet vs a very creative sassuolo attack. I would lean under 3 at plus money cause I expect Cagliari can slow down sassuolo and keep them at 2 goals. Just will come down to if Cagliari can net one?
 
Cagliari has real trouble scoring, Sassuolo will give them chances though

Still like that side, but don't want to swallow a fraction
 
Burnley lost a defender to injury early in the last one, but I guess it'd violate my don't lay even a fraction of a goal rule
 
poor Norwich

tomorrow's interests:
So'ton +0.25
Udinese +1
Levante +0.5
Athletic Bilbao +0.5
 
This last day of la liga feels kinda tough. Trying to decide if fading Barcelona and RM a terrible idea or not? Judging by lines I’d say it obviously built into the price they have nothing to play for (not if their opponents playing for much either cept beating one the top dogs). I always liked the fade a team after clinching division or playoff spot in other sports, stands to reason RM winning the league thu would give them reason fo celebrate and not care much here.

Far as Barcelona looks like they sitting bunch of guys and the way they finished their season makes me think they can’t get this one over fast enough. Maybe they play angry but I don’t see it. Anyways I don’t have lot of ideas and as I mentioned overall la liga looks tricky so I might just tread lightly and take few shots against these 2.

Can’t decide if Celta can be trusted? If they were facing anyone else I’d say NO but they got the right opponent in front of them to finally assure safety! Wouldn’t shock me if they somehow only got a draw but doubt I’ll play it.

The spots with the biggest meaning the teams battling it out in 6th-7th-8th spots but I’m having a hard time figuring them out? Velencia has a pretty nice price attached against a Seville side not playing for much so I’m considering them but think that bout it as the others in the race all favs cause that reason and I don’t trust they all handle the pressure!!
 
wouldn't be so harsh and call any idea catching goals terrible, albeit today you're not getting any sort of premium to fade either with neither line above 1 (though Barcelona caught a lot of money overnight to switch the juice)

Barca isn't sitting people, they simply are unable to fill out an entire team sheet right now. Both teams have Champions League, RMA in trouble while Barca favorites to move to the next round based on first legs. Today will be a tune up for that and I'd imagine they want all meaningful players to get a sweat in to be in the best possible shape for that competition even if it's a couple weeks away. Depends on what the opponents are doing, Leganes in a must-win with two players off yellow card suspension means Madrid will get the best they've got. Barca in a completely different spot with Alaves clinched and sights on next year with a possible infusion of youth into the lineup to gain experience, yet line still not supporting Barca as much as it has since the re-start (incorrectly i must say)

Celta can be trusted to score goals, defense has been an issue and they should be nowhere near this relegation battle. A win and they're in, but it's been that way for a couple matches and it hasn't happened. They would be quite a disappointing drop to the Segunda Division, but credit must be given to Leganes for making this a real fight. Playing the worst team in La Liga who's been embarrassed since flaming out of Europa League and is more focused on selling players to balance budgets than playing its best players in a lost campaign is all you can ask for, but CV has all the pressure. Think they win, but it won't be easy

2daBank said:
The spots with the biggest meaning the teams battling it out in 6th-7th-8th spots but I’m having a hard time figuring them out? Velencia has a pretty nice price attached against a Seville side not playing for much so I’m considering them but think that bout it as the others in the race all favs cause that reason and I don’t trust they all handle the pressure!!
Click to expand...

it's all broken down in post 64, not sure what more I can say about it but Sevilla has further competition remaining
 
I didn’t bet much. Nothing really felt right. I wish Celta had to absolutely win this match but they can avoid relegation if Leganes can’t beat Real Madrid. I’d like to think they take their fate into their own hands while going out and winning this match. I wouldn’t trust them vs a lot of sides right now but against a terrible espanyol side who has only gotten 1 point since the restart I think they get it done. I’ve def seen more quality from them than their current standing would indicate, the results simply Havnt been there much. I’m laying the -140 with them.
 
brutal push on Udinese conceding a 95' goal, but a good weekend

today's interests:
Lazio +1.25

what the hell happened to this line? Lazio has been struggling, but Juve has sinking like a rock
 
eh Alberto suspended explains a lot as he's their best creator. No Dybala again, but Higuain in and i'm not sure Lazio prevents goals today so i will pass as they've been so bad since being crowned the challenger to Juve
 
I feel like Lazio been struggling vs teams way down the table while juve been a defense problem while facing some the most lethal attacks in the league. Their attack has still been strong and Renaldo is gaining on Immobile for the goals lead. I think juve defense will be better today vs a Lazio side who has struggled to find the back of the net or even generate many quality chances of late. I could be way off but I expect a convincing juventus win cause I think they will create chances and put a few in, I just don’t trust Lazio to do the same with a depleted group.
 
Juve pounced early in the 2H yet the woodwork was Lazio's best defender and a late miscommunication at the back gave away a penalty resulting in a backdoor cover rarely seen in this sport

today's interests:
SASS +0.5
SASS o3.25
 
I have a feeling bologna defense responds after allowing 5 goals last time out. Atalanta not getting the 3 points last time out and juve winning yesterday has to be a bit demoralizing and think they in for a sneaky tough match today. I played bologna +1.75.
 
2daBank said:
I have a feeling bologna defense responds after allowing 5 goals last time out. Atalanta not getting the 3 points last time out and juve winning yesterday has to be a bit demoralizing and think they in for a sneaky tough match today. I played bologna +1.75.
Click to expand...

not demoralizing at all, they've been done for a while
 
it's romantic, but every team is out there to win each match so they still think they have a chance even now

Demoralizing is a really strong word
 
Not into patting myself on the back but seeing how new I am to soccer I gotta go ahead and give myself a atta boy cause I nailed this bologna/Atalanta match!! Lol
 
self attaboy by VC's valentine, you love to see it

Milan had a great gameplan to force the Sassuolo backline to make passes and choke the game there, that led to an incredibly bad turnover and an easy Ibrahimovic header before a gift penalty got SASS back in the game. For a little while, only to see Ibra get a second before a silly second yellow on the stroke at halftime by SASS and that killed the over that looked so good early...

today's interests:
Chelsea +0.5
FIO +1.25
Verona +0.25
 
I don’t understand Lecce line at all, why in gods name are they laying a goal? Or that huge +365 to Brescia? Both pretty terrible especially on defense but I don’t see Lecce as having any huge advantage. Other than the reverse fixture Brescia won 3-0 all their recent matches been draws or decided by one goal. Seems to me this thing could go either way but +1 feels like a good shot to win with push being most likely worst case. Money line always tempts me but I’m super happy taking Brescia +1!

Also like Sampdoria +145 to get the win. Genoa has only been beating teams below them in the table so don’t see them getting a win vs Sampdoria side in good form.
 
Looks like Napoli might be without their top 2 goal scorers. One for sure out cause of cards, the other left early last match w a injury, they say it was precautionary but with this Parma match not having much importance I can’t see why they would play him with a much more important match upcoming?

I played the Napoli/Parma under 3
 
2daBank said:
Looks like Napoli might be without their top 2 goal scorers. One for sure out cause of cards, the other left early last match w a injury, they say it was precautionary but with this Parma match not having much importance I can’t see why they would play him with a much more important match upcoming?

I played the Napoli/Parma under 3
Click to expand...

you could wait to see a lineup lol
 
2daBank said:
I don’t understand Lecce line at all, why in gods name are they laying a goal? Or that huge +365 to Brescia? Both pretty terrible especially on defense but I don’t see Lecce as having any huge advantage. Other than the reverse fixture Brescia won 3-0 all their recent matches been draws or decided by one goal. Seems to me this thing could go either way but +1 feels like a good shot to win with push being most likely worst case. Money line always tempts me but I’m super happy taking Brescia +1!

Also like Sampdoria +145 to get the win. Genoa has only been beating teams below them in the table so don’t see them getting a win vs Sampdoria side in good form.
Click to expand...

the Brescia point is a good one. Holding a ticket on Genoa to be relegated and they are terrible, but Lecce had just about everything go wrong for them vs Genoa in order to lose a game they controlled 2-1

Hadn't thought about Brescia but catching a full goal on a side that's been better lately while Lecce has all the pressure in a must-win, it has worked in La Liga and may work again here
 
GWarner27 said:
the Brescia point is a good one. Holding a ticket on Genoa to be relegated and they are terrible, but Lecce had just about everything go wrong for them vs Genoa in order to lose a game they controlled 2-1

Hadn't thought about Brescia but catching a full goal on a side that's been better lately while Lecce has all the pressure in a must-win, it has worked in La Liga and may work again here
Click to expand...

Lecce absolutely deserved a better result in the Genoa match I agree. They could certainly win here, I honestly dunno what to expect with these 2 dumpster fires going at it? Kinda expect goals cause both defenses are terrible, as in worst in the league! That said both attacks rather putrid so who knows? Lol. To me Brescia shows more promise on their attack but they also leave Themselves painfully open for counter attacks!

I just wouldn’t expect this kind of number when I’m having such a hard time figuring out the right side! Usually when I see a line like this is incredibly obvious why. Someone told me “sharps” love Lecce here, whatever that worth? Lecce gonna have to show me they worthy of this number!
 
Well if I’m gonna give myself atta boys I will come back and talk about how terrible that Brescia bet was! Lol.

Not cause it lost but there is something about that play that was very bad. I knew Lecce had been missing their best goal scorer recently but I did not realize he came back for this match, dunno how I missed that?? I do a bunch of reading and pay attention to the injuries and suspensions best I can! I don’t recall reading he was coming back for this match so either I missed it or it wasn’t common knowledge. Now that I think about it had to be common knowledge that prob why line shot up! Lol.

That was a very poor job by me. I can handle taking a loss, prefer the losses that the stats for match back up my play even tho doesn’t cash, I can live with the occasional loss where my team just gets destroyed, shit happens! However, taking a loss like this because I missed a important bit of information can’t happen! I lose enough plays I think were good bets! I can’t afford to give away freebies! Lol
 
2daBank said:
Well if I’m gonna give myself atta boys I will come back and talk about how terrible that Brescia bet was! Lol.

Not cause it lost but there is something about that play that was very bad. I knew Lecce had been missing their best goal scorer recently but I did not realize he came back for this match, dunno how I missed that?? I do a bunch of reading and pay attention to the injuries and suspensions best I can! I don’t recall reading he was coming back for this match so either I missed it or it wasn’t common knowledge. Now that I think about it had to be common knowledge that prob why line shot up! Lol.

That was a very poor job by me. I can handle taking a loss, prefer the losses that the stats for match back up my play even tho doesn’t cash, I can live with the occasional loss where my team just gets destroyed, shit happens! However, taking a loss like this because I missed a important bit of information can’t happen! I lose enough plays I think were good bets! I can’t afford to give away freebies! Lol
Click to expand...

yeah bank thanks for putting a loser on my card
 
ultimately Brescia was not relegated yet and had even more of a need to win yesterday's match to stay up, didn't exactly lead to awful defending as that's been their calling card all season it appears. First goal was incredibly poor defense, second could blamed on the keeper though it wasn't egregious and then i think the biggest problem was when they got the goal back.

Lecce was sitting back when they went up 2-0 and i'm not sure that was very intelligent, especially when Brescia pulled one back, but needing to win Brescia just pushed even harder for the equalizer and left a terrible defense even more open. Probably should have recognized the 6 and 7 goals allowed in recent matches as a bad indicator since Lecce's problem is preventing goals not scoring them, but I thought we might escape with a push on a 2-1 final

Lecce isn't great, but they deserved a win against Genoa that will probably get them relegated since they somehow lost. Also should have beaten Cagliari, but missed two open nets. Those results are probably why they're getting relegated when you combine that with Genoa winning a match they didn't really deserve yesterday also
 
today's interests:
Udinese +1
Cagliari +1.25

UDI in the second half, but wanted to get it out there that they have very little offense with capitano Lasagna injured and it might be smart to keep that in mind if he doesn't return for the next match as their scoring punch are all youths on the bench
 
I played the under 3 in Lazio match.

Good call with Udinese! I can’t believe Juve continues struggling but none the teams chasing them been able to take advantage! Lol
 
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