July Discussion
- Thread starter GWarner27
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
west ham showed way more heart than we accustomed to since the restart in that match. I thought after they had that goal on the corner disallowed thanks to VAR on a incredibly close play, then Chelsea scoring shortly after I thought for sure west ham was gonna crumble. Wasn’t the case tho.
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Big weekend, so here are the leans. Please yell at whichever you prefer, we've got all day tomorrow to discuss
La Liga
Serie A
EPL
La Liga
| 07/04/2020 | CV |
| 07/04/2020 | VALLA |
| 07/04/2020 | GRAN |
| 07/05/2020 | BILBAO |
| 07/05/2020 | ESPANY |
| 07/05/2020 | OSA |
| 07/05/2020 | VILLA |
| 07/06/2020 | LEV |
| 07/06/2020 | eib |
| 07/04/2020 | LAZIO |
| 07/05/2020 | bolo |
| 07/05/2020 | CAG |
| 07/05/2020 | genoa |
| 07/04/2020 | NOR |
| 07/04/2020 | cp |
| 07/04/2020 | WOLV |
| 07/05/2020 | BURN |
| 07/05/2020 | NEW |
| 07/06/2020 | eve |
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’m gonna get up early, go get a ice coffee and cap the card!! Almost like a typical 4th of July, just soccer instead of baseball! I’m actually ok with it! Honestly I enjoy watching the soccer every bit as much, I enjoy capping bases more but that true up against every sport, baseball simply far and away my favorite sport to cap since I put the most weight into numbers/stats with bases, deep down I’m a big dork! Lol
So true. You‘re genuinely the only urban dork i‘ve ever met. The only dork who wouldn‘t get beat up by a group of jocks.
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
CP +0.75 possible reasoning:
My thoughts are that Hodgson is a respected manager who should limit stupid defensive mistakes (LIV is just awesome and ripped them apart like they could anybody). That makes it hard for me to see LEI scoring barring some sort of mistake/show of brilliance which we haven’t seen. I would think Maddison plays (but haven’t checked injury reports) and that makes their offense better. Vardy still a serious threat, but he looks like he’s aging. LEI defense is great, but if they only score 1 and we lose 0-1 then I lose half
A goal scored by CP will make it very hard for LEI to do any better than draw as I think it’ll be really hard for them to get 2. LEI could certainly get the first goal and then CP pushes for a draw, which leaves them exposed and the floodgates open. The awful start vs EVE when you're down 2-0 in 15 minutes thanks to some bad defense (was their calling card but that can slip when your offense isn't producing and the pressure is on to keep a Champions League spot) and a penalty may mean that was as bad as it gets, but i think there is some value in going against LEI who is sinking like a stone ever since the re-start and has to win this one handily to cover the spread
Why bring Maddison on in the 46’ and let him play the remainder of the match when down 0-2 with a game in three days. If he plays that makes me like CP less, but if it pushes the spread to +1 then it’s probably worth it for the extra protection cuz who knows how good he is on a quick turnaround and he likely doesn’t play very well with all that rust
My thoughts are that Hodgson is a respected manager who should limit stupid defensive mistakes (LIV is just awesome and ripped them apart like they could anybody). That makes it hard for me to see LEI scoring barring some sort of mistake/show of brilliance which we haven’t seen. I would think Maddison plays (but haven’t checked injury reports) and that makes their offense better. Vardy still a serious threat, but he looks like he’s aging. LEI defense is great, but if they only score 1 and we lose 0-1 then I lose half
A goal scored by CP will make it very hard for LEI to do any better than draw as I think it’ll be really hard for them to get 2. LEI could certainly get the first goal and then CP pushes for a draw, which leaves them exposed and the floodgates open. The awful start vs EVE when you're down 2-0 in 15 minutes thanks to some bad defense (was their calling card but that can slip when your offense isn't producing and the pressure is on to keep a Champions League spot) and a penalty may mean that was as bad as it gets, but i think there is some value in going against LEI who is sinking like a stone ever since the re-start and has to win this one handily to cover the spread
Why bring Maddison on in the 46’ and let him play the remainder of the match when down 0-2 with a game in three days. If he plays that makes me like CP less, but if it pushes the spread to +1 then it’s probably worth it for the extra protection cuz who knows how good he is on a quick turnaround and he likely doesn’t play very well with all that rust
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aplous
Donkey Hater
Didn't bet Lester +3/4, meant CP obv they're not favored
aplous
Donkey Hater
LOL yes usually have my hands up a cow's ass not on a keyboard
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
was hoping to play Bilbao but the RMA lineup is pretty rotated and the line has plummeted to 0.5, rare when everyone seems to back the big favorites on matchday. Probably wins lol but no insurance at +1 is too scary since RMA is just awesome
For reference Bilbao was +0.25 vs Atletico and +1.75 @Barca while Atleti was +0.75 @Barca so by transitive property Bilbao +0.5 neutral Atleti and Atleti +0.5 neutral Barca so Bilbao +1 to Barca based on closing lines. This is too cheap on RMA only being -0.75 neutral to Bilbao cuz everyone is playing RMA +0.25 neutral Barca
For reference Bilbao was +0.25 vs Atletico and +1.75 @Barca while Atleti was +0.75 @Barca so by transitive property Bilbao +0.5 neutral Atleti and Atleti +0.5 neutral Barca so Bilbao +1 to Barca based on closing lines. This is too cheap on RMA only being -0.75 neutral to Bilbao cuz everyone is playing RMA +0.25 neutral Barca
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Monday thoughts:
EVE played really tight and compact defense in the opener vs LIV, not sure what to take from any LIV results but at that time it was a huge feat. 2-0 lead in 15’ thanks to a good goal and a penalty on LEI makes me think that EVE isn’t a fluke. TOT has the brand and name recognition from recent success, but that was with a different manager and with a healthy team. Mourinho was an awesome coach, but he doesn’t seem to be anymore with his soured relationships and frankly not utilizing the five subs as evidenced by Kane being unable to run late in the 2H vs ManU where they had to hold on for dear life to earn a point. Son doesn’t seem to have it yet, Alli really tough to predict and while he can be good I don’t think he’s near consistent enough coming off injury and the lockdown furthering that point. TOT should be pretty pissed off that handball ruling, but they still let SHEFF score thrice and that’s a bad sign. 0-0 catching 0.5 would be real nice, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect EVE to score a goal considering the complaints about the TOT back four having a couple wasted spots and Dier not being good enough to be a starting CB you have to depend on each week. Half a goal ain’t cheap right now, but considering how most favorites get bet right up until kickoff I’m gonna wait and see if I can get +0.5 near even or maybe it’ll even drift to +0.75
who wants to disagree with me @guaranteeed @EFC1878
EVE played really tight and compact defense in the opener vs LIV, not sure what to take from any LIV results but at that time it was a huge feat. 2-0 lead in 15’ thanks to a good goal and a penalty on LEI makes me think that EVE isn’t a fluke. TOT has the brand and name recognition from recent success, but that was with a different manager and with a healthy team. Mourinho was an awesome coach, but he doesn’t seem to be anymore with his soured relationships and frankly not utilizing the five subs as evidenced by Kane being unable to run late in the 2H vs ManU where they had to hold on for dear life to earn a point. Son doesn’t seem to have it yet, Alli really tough to predict and while he can be good I don’t think he’s near consistent enough coming off injury and the lockdown furthering that point. TOT should be pretty pissed off that handball ruling, but they still let SHEFF score thrice and that’s a bad sign. 0-0 catching 0.5 would be real nice, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect EVE to score a goal considering the complaints about the TOT back four having a couple wasted spots and Dier not being good enough to be a starting CB you have to depend on each week. Half a goal ain’t cheap right now, but considering how most favorites get bet right up until kickoff I’m gonna wait and see if I can get +0.5 near even or maybe it’ll even drift to +0.75
who wants to disagree with me @guaranteeed @EFC1878
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
I think waiting is the right move
Any line changes based on lineup changes would go spurs way, just more options
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
well you liked my favorite one and of course it lost haha
today's interests:
Southampton +0.25/0.5
Levante +0.5
Leganes +0.25
2daBank
Voice of Reason
yea, I had more on under which went down when those fuckers scored a otherwise meaningless goal with barely a minute left in stoppage time to beat us 3-0. God those stoppage time goals to beat me hurt! it be nice if I could get some of those that go my way!! Lol.
I didn’t have much time to cap card today so I tailed Jimbo (hopefully I don’t curse him!), and I also played both the mls unders (cashed the early one, still have another tonight), I’m just taking a shot blindly taking the unders these 1st few games hoping they show the same kind of goal scoring rust the epl did upon restart!!
I have a few minutes right now so I’ll check yours out, gl today!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’m gonna keep betting the mls unders, so far so good. I know mls worlds apart from epl but if those epl squads struggled with their attacks early after restart I think it pretty safe to assume these lessor quality players in mls are gonna do the same. Plus we getting lot of 3s so until I start seeing some quality attacks and/or the totals drop some I’m gonna keep playing them and see what happens.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Another cake under again tonight. There hasn’t been a 1st half goal in any the 4 mls matches so far!!
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
i wouldn't fall in love with Atalanta, though they're clearly hot. Not a huge Juve fan since the re-start, but expect their defense to be better off the loss and de Ligt returns from suspension and you gotta think they are pretty interested in keeping Atalanta's offense quiet
That said i do lean Atalanta because i don't play favorites, but not sure catching less than a half goal on the road is enough for me
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I hear ya. I think the price is right tho with how good of form they been in, since before the restart really. I’m not nearly confident enough in my ability to cap this sport to “fall in love” and go big on any plays, lol. I’m far more excited to watch it than actually make a big play on it. After watching that mls crap show last night just looking forward to a match with quality attacks!!
This a hugely important match, juventus pretty lucky that lazio wasn’t able to take advantage of their loss earlier in week where they blew a 2 goal lead. Juventus still plays Atalanta today and lazio soon after, so if Atalanta can find a way to steal 3 points these last few weeks could be tense!! I like the over better than the Atalanta side. Not that it means anything far as outcome but I did get pretty good numbers on both last night. I see them down to +215 now and juice shifting to the over 3. Always makes me happy to beat close in every sport!
I like lazio to bounce back today but they haven’t been in good form lately so tough to lay price or the goal. Prob gonna use them as a parlay partner with a few others.
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
the last weeks aren't gonna be tense, Juve is a huge favorite
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Ok but if they lose today and lazio wins it gets pretty tight with a match w lazio looming and both them and Atalanta would be within striking distance.
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
ARSENAL 0
I’ve been trying not to get involved before seeing lineups, but the line is climbing and I don’t see any reason people start to bet TOT. Hate to see LIV and MCFC both next week for ARS, but who would they consider sitting as they look ahead? Not sure anybody besides Aubameyang would make the line move and he’s only sat the Sheffield FA Cup match. UCL seems unlikely, but they are in the Europa playoff spot if MCFC ban is upheld Monday and they have the FA Cup as a way in as well. The North London rivalry and the likelihood of getting points vs the chances of getting them vs LIV seem to be another reason to start the full lineup here as they had 4 days between games yet only two before LIV. Arteta as a former player and the Arsenal twitter account seem to be taking it very seriously
I’ve been trying not to get involved before seeing lineups, but the line is climbing and I don’t see any reason people start to bet TOT. Hate to see LIV and MCFC both next week for ARS, but who would they consider sitting as they look ahead? Not sure anybody besides Aubameyang would make the line move and he’s only sat the Sheffield FA Cup match. UCL seems unlikely, but they are in the Europa playoff spot if MCFC ban is upheld Monday and they have the FA Cup as a way in as well. The North London rivalry and the likelihood of getting points vs the chances of getting them vs LIV seem to be another reason to start the full lineup here as they had 4 days between games yet only two before LIV. Arteta as a former player and the Arsenal twitter account seem to be taking it very seriously
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I feel like there a pretty good case for Aston villa, there xG since restart better than the results, they have looked ok for parts of these last several vs top teams, they havnt scored but all 3 those matches were better defenses than palace has to offer, I think they finally find the back of net here and maybe even twice.
I know some dislike the now or never for these teams that get themselves into these must wins but considering the level of competition I’ve thought they fought hard against and the class relief here I think adds up to them beating a palace team on cruise control pretty much with their fates having been sealed. Just really feels to me like a match AV should win, granted they havnt won since January so there’s that, lol.
I know some dislike the now or never for these teams that get themselves into these must wins but considering the level of competition I’ve thought they fought hard against and the class relief here I think adds up to them beating a palace team on cruise control pretty much with their fates having been sealed. Just really feels to me like a match AV should win, granted they havnt won since January so there’s that, lol.
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
i appreciate you trying to talk me off, Villa definitely have been competitive against the bigger teams than the scores indicate, but here is Villa since the re-start:
- 0-0 Sheffield
- 1-2 CHELSEA
- 1-1 Newcastle
- 0-1 WOLVES
- 0-2 Liverpool
- 0-3 MANUTD
xG is the best we got, but isn't that good and supposedly has the wrong name because it really doesn't represent expected goals. Must-win situations are not good for the team who often gets the favorite title that they don't deserve, and this situation grew more dire after both teams ahead of them won yesterday. All the pressure in the world is on Villa, a goal will relieve some of it, but who is going to get it? Grealish doesn't have a lot of help, could certainly see an unexpected scorer but Wesley is 2nd behind grealish with 5 goals and he hasn't played since New Year's Day. Seems like a penalty or something unexpected will the way they find the net and that's hard to rely upon with maximum pressure to win.
Palace hasn't been very good so there is certainly class relief. Can't see Cahill returning this year and Sakho removed all doubt from the Leicester game when he slipped and handed Vardy a goal, so there's some concern back there. Zaha is fickle, but the most talented offensive player on the pitch. Scoring problems certainly for Palace who have not been very good since the restart. This is the best shot for a Villa win besides the West Ham finale, but they may be down by then and that pressure is real
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I hear ya, since I don’t really have any experience with these situations to lean back on I did some reading last night trying to get a better handle on how teams did in these kind of spots at the end of the year (facing relegation and sitting where palace is in middle with nowhere to go), I saw some numbers that suggest teams do perform somewhat better when in the kind of spot AV is (while I’d agree none them exactly the same and those other 2 winning certainly could add to the pressure). While teams safely in over 40 points tend to show lack of effort or quality over a big sample.
Obviously doesn’t mean much for this particular match I was just curious and I would say palace form has kinda fit that mold as they have been giving up quite a few goals. I wanna say from what I’ve seen from AV the effort been there at least at times until they might have then felt out of a match and while I’d agree if a goal doesn’t come for them the pressure could mount, I also feel like if they see the ball go in the net once against the worst d they have seen in some time their belief might grow into a second goal rather easily. I liked the idea of getting half my bet back on draw so I went ahead w-.25 -101 cause I could def see a draw here. Anyways I put too much work in and felt pretty good about it so at least one of us will win!!
I was looking at the Milan match when I started nodding off for a little bit but think I was leaning that way, lol.
Prob join you with arsonal, gl today
Obviously doesn’t mean much for this particular match I was just curious and I would say palace form has kinda fit that mold as they have been giving up quite a few goals. I wanna say from what I’ve seen from AV the effort been there at least at times until they might have then felt out of a match and while I’d agree if a goal doesn’t come for them the pressure could mount, I also feel like if they see the ball go in the net once against the worst d they have seen in some time their belief might grow into a second goal rather easily. I liked the idea of getting half my bet back on draw so I went ahead w-.25 -101 cause I could def see a draw here. Anyways I put too much work in and felt pretty good about it so at least one of us will win!!
I was looking at the Milan match when I started nodding off for a little bit but think I was leaning that way, lol.
Prob join you with arsonal, gl today
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
not sure what you could read that can generalize a safe team's performance cuz there's so many different scenarios, but i respect the interest and more research is always better than less.
Advocating for a half-loss if they draw is hilarious, but good health on it :shake:
Advocating for a half-loss if they draw is hilarious, but good health on it :shake:
