July ~ Bases

[B.A.R.]

Love the L5 weeks notes, thx.

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 5/5.00 Padres -1½ +100
• 5/3.42 Reds -146
• 5/4.81 Pirates -104
• 6/3.70 Padres -162

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
YESTERDAY [2-9 -38.06u]

TODAY:

• 4/7.12 Cardinals -1½ +178
• 5/7.25 Giants +145
• 5/4.76 Giants / Dodgers over 8½ -105
• 6/2.64 Astros -227
• 5/4.00 Astros -1½ -125
• 5/4.35 Twins / White Sox over 9 -115

Pend;
SEA & 1'
PIT
PHI
TEX
TOR & O
TB

Lean;


CHASIN YESTERDAY; 3-0 UNDER; 1-0 OVER; 0-0

CHASIN TODAY...
HOU
TOR
SD
AZ
LAD
BAL
MIN
ATL U
SL U
CIN O
COL O
DET O

randoms...

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 5/4.55 Rays -1½ -110
• 5/5.40 Rangers +108
• 5/5.65 Pirates +113
• 6/3.28 Blue Jays -183
• 5/4.35 Red Sox / Blue Jays OVER 10½ -115

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
YESTERDAY [2-8-1 -29.4u]

TODAY:

• 5/6.35 Indians +127
• 5/6.15 Rangers +123
• 5/6.20 Mariners +124
• 5/6.40 Angels +128

Pend;
BOS


CHASIN YESTERDAY; 3-3 UNDER; 1-0 OVER; 1-3

CHASIN TODAY...
SEA
PHI O

randoms...

 

[Vapster]

Good Stuff! That Girls Ass Is AWESOME BTW!

 

[Zeke]

But her kitchen is hideous. Pass.

 

[Vapster]

I can look past the kitchen @Zeke Hahahaha

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 6/4.20 Red Sox -143
• 4/4.20 Giants / Dodgers UNDER 7½ +105
  

 

[bingus]

But her kitchen is hideous. Pass.

Funny we are guys but that is a hideous kitchen

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
YESTERDAY [2-4 -8.4u]

TODAY:

• 6/3.55 Giants -169
• 5/4.63 CARDINALS (STL) o9½-108
• 5/4.90 YANKEES (NYY) o8½-102
• 5/4.81 ANGELS (LAA) o10-104
• 5/5.45 RANGERS (TEX) o9+109
• 5/4.67 Athletics -107
• 5/7.50 ATHLETICS (OAK) -1½+150
• 5/7.75 Athletics -1½ +155
• 5/4.76 Blue Jays -105
• 5/5.85 White Sox +117
• 6/3.17 WHITE SOX (CWS) +1½-189
• 5/5.00 Tigers / Royals OVER 10½ +100

Pend;
LAD & 1' & O

Lean;


CHASIN YESTERDAY; 1-0 UNDER; 0-0 OVER; 1-1

CHASIN TODAY...
TEX
SEA
MIA
PHI U
BOS U
KC O
MIN O


randoms...

 

[Ticketwindow]

early look @640am

Can you do me a favor and give me a brief explanation of this graph?

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 5/3.88 DODGERS (LAD) -1½-129
• 5/4.81 ROCKIES (COL) o9-104
• 5/3.73 Red Sox Team Total OVER 3½ -134

 

[mrpickem]

Can you do me a favor and give me a brief explanation of this graph?

It's a model from TheBat

Here's the legend of what each column header is


Basically you look at Win Pct as that is the projected chance to win today without regard to the line, while the "EV" is the expected value considering the actual line. Darker green has the higher value. I don't always follow their recommendations, but it's just another tool I look at. Also once the lineups are in, these numbers may change depending on how many regulars are out of the lineup...but that generally happens 2-5 hours before game time. Hope that answers your question, all these charts I post at times are very similar, even though some are on totals or run lines. I have found decent success playing their team total projections as well.

 

[Ticketwindow]

Thanks for the explanation

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 5/6.06 DIAMONDBACKS (ARZ) +121
• 5/3.47 DIAMONDBACKS (ARZ) +1½-144
• 5/4.55 Diamondbacks Team Total OVER 4½ -110

 

[mrpickem]

Saturday

• 5/4.42 REDS (CIN) u9½-113
• 7/2.86 Giants -245
• 5/4.17 Giants -1½ -120
• 7/2.89 Dodgers -242
• 5/4.27 DODGERS (LAD) -1½-117
• 5/4.35 Yankees / Red Sox UNDER 9½ -115
• 5/5.00 Rangers / Astros UNDER 8 +100
• 5/5.00 ORIOLES (BAL) u9½+100
• 5/5.90 White Sox +118
• 6/3.16 White Sox +1½ -190

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 5/5.25 Diamondbacks / Cubs OVER 11 +105 for Game

• 5/7.80 Diamondbacks +156

• 5/4.17 Diamondbacks Team Total OVER 4½ -120

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 5/3.45 Reds -½ -145 for 1st 5 Innings
• 5/4.59 TIGERS (DET) -109

Reds FF RL ...Not a huge fan of the juice on this one but Castillo imo will be worth it. He has really figured it out in the last two months and I don't think the red birds will do much of anything against him. On the other side of the coin Woodford is a below average pitcher and the Reds should handle him pretty easily.

Tigs FF ML ... Tigers have been playing some great baseball as of late. Mize is going to be limited in this one to probably 4 innings or around 60 pitches, which does give me some pause. But he has been solid in his last few outings, I think he can blank this bad royals offense. Carlos Hernández is gettable for the Tigers and I think their offense will bounce back tonight.

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
YESTERDAY [9-6 +8.67u]

TODAY:

• 6/3.68 Phillies -163
• 5/4.63 PHILLIES (PHA) u9½-108
• 6/3.53 Reds -170
• 4/6.56 Pirates +164
• 5/3.91 PIRATES (PIT) +1½-128
• 5/4.81 PIRATES (PIT) o8-104
• 5/6.65 Yankees +133
• 5/3.45 Yankees +1½ -145
• 5/4.81 Tigers -104
• 5/4.31 Tigers -116 for 5 Innings
• 5/5.00 White Sox / Brewers UNDER 7 +100

Pend;
HOU & 1'
TOR & 1'
SD & 1' & U
WAS
TB

CHASIN YESTERDAY; 2-4 UNDER; 2-0 OVER; 1-1

CHASIN TODAY...
COL
PIT
PHI
NYY
CLE U
BAL U
PHI U
SEA O
BOS O

randoms...

Tigs FF RL +115 ...Similar situation as yesterday. Skubal might be on a limited pitch count, but he CAN blank the Royos as long as he's in. Not a lot of info on Lynch but his 8 MLB inn so far have not been impressive and his minor league numbers are pretty meh. Tigers should definitely score in this one and carry the game as well.

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 5/5.10 Cardinals Team Total OVER 4½ +102
• 5/4.42 BLUE JAYS (TOR) -113
• 5/7.00 BLUE JAYS -1½ +140
• 5/11.15 RANGERS (TEX) - PC +223
• 5/5.65 RANGERS (TEX) - PC +1½ +113
• 5/5.25 Rangers Team Total OVER 3½ +105
• 6/3.64 RAYS (TB) -165
• 5/4.85 NATIONALS (WAS) -103

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----


Whew, since the break...I've been colder than cold :riphair:

TODAY:

• 4/6.00 Mets +150
• 6/3.45 ASTROS -174
• 5/4.50 ASTROS (HOU) -1½-111
• 5/6.50 Angels -1½ +130

Pend;


Lean;


CHASIN YESTERDAY; 4-3 UNDER; 4-1 OVER; 0-3

CHASIN TODAY...
PHI O


randoms...

 

[mrpickem]

thots...

• TIGERS +½ 109 ...These teams are on different trajectory’s as of late, and while many expected the tigs far below .500, many wouldn’t have expected it from the twinks. I have a few angles why I like this pick. First, the twins are in full sell mode, they’ve traded Nelson Cruz, will listen to offers for Kepler and Polanco, and will be more than willing to salvage value from today's starter Michael Pineda. The unknown circumstances surrounding the ball club may cause a lack of focus as the twins limp into the dog days of summer. As much as I'm feeling the Minny struggles, I also have to give credit to Detroit. AJ Hinch has been a great hire and looks to be turning this ball club around for real. Matt Manning has been up and down but has the tools to put together good starts. Outside of one absolute stinker, he’s been okay, and will hopefully be able to handle a Minnesota lineup that finds itself with less firepower than on opening day. The tigs offense will hope to take advantage of windy conditions and their hot bats, as they can lift a couple balls out into the wind and push some runs across early. With these starters, the under at a stout 10½ is also worth a look.
• ANGELS -1½ +130...The Rox road record alone should be enough reason to take this (10-36), but Ohtani should outpitch Marquez 9/10 times, plus Angels hitting should easily outscore the much weaker Rockies. Another solid bet may be under 8 runs with two good pitchers and the Rockies' really poor offensive production away.

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 5/2.78 Braves +1½ -180
• 5/6.45 REDS (CIN) +129
• 5/4.20 Reds Team Total OVER 3½ -119
• 6/4.80 TEAM TOTAL OVER 5-125 RUNS BY BLUE JAYS
• 5/3.62 ROYALS (KC) +1½-138
• 4/4.00 Tigers +½ +100 for 1st 5 Innings

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
YESTERDAY [4-6 -12.9u]

TODAY:

• 5/3.88 Brewers -129
• 5/4.76 Brewers / Pirates OVER 8½ -105
• 5/4.35 Phillies -115
• 6/3.92 Cubs -153
• 5/4.27 Dodgers -117
• 5/4.03 Blue Jays -124
• 5/3.55 Rays -141
• 6/3.09 Twins -194
• 5/4.55 TWINS (MIN) -1½-110
• 5/3.55 White Sox -141
• 6/3.92 Astros -153
• 5/4.10 MARLINS (MIA) -122
• 5/4.55 Rockies / Angels OVER 9 -110
• 5/6.75 Padres -1½ +135
• 6/3.97 Padres -151

NUTHIN BUT CHALK :rofl:

CHASIN YESTERDAY; 0-0 UNDER; 0-0 OVER; 1-0

CHASIN TODAY...
CHC
SEA
PIT
MIN
MIN U
LAA O
CHC O
PIT O


randoms...

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 5/4.55 Yankees / Rays OVER 7½ -110
• 5/4.03 Marlins Team Total OVER 4½ -124
• 5/4.59 Reds Team Total OVER 4½ -109
• 5/4.76 Reds / Cubs OVER 10½ -105

The Rays are a dominant home team so putting up runs shouldn’t be an issue. There numbers in July have been the best of the season.(AVG, SLG, OBP) On the other side the Yankees haven’t been playing well, but they play much better on the road. (.243 vs .228) On top of that they hit lefties quite well. (.253 vs .227) I see runs being put up in this game and like the value at -110.

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
YESTERDAY [11-7-1 +11.86u]

TODAY:

• 6/3.28 Phillies -183
• 5/5.25 PHILLIES (PHA) -1½+105
• 5/5.95 Braves +119
• 5/4.72 Reds -106
• 5/3.70 Dodgers -135
• 5/6.25 Dodgers -1½ +125
• 5/6.45 Tigers +129
• 5/4.35 Astros -115
• 5/4.17 RAYS -120
• 6/3.49 WHITE SOX (CWS) -172
• 5/6.00 Athletics +120
• 5/4.90 DIAMONDBACKS (ARZ) -102
• 7/3.50 Angels -200
• 5/4.59 ANGELS (LAA) -1½-109

Lean;
CLE


CHASIN YESTERDAY; 1-3 UNDER; 0-1 OVER; 2-0-1

CHASIN TODAY...
LAA
SEA
PHI
AZ
CHW
DET
PHI U
NYM U
TB O
MIN O


randoms...

DET 11-1 in their last 12 Wed. games.
MIN 2-8 in their last 10 games as a favorite.
MIN 4-10 in their last 14 Wed. games.
MIN 4-9 in their last 13 overall.



HOU 8-2 in their last 10 Wed. games.
HOU 12-5 in their last 17 road games.
HOU 23-9 in the last 32 meetings in Seattle.


SL 7-16 in their last 23 road games.
CLE 11-5 in their last 16 games as a favorite.

​

https://www.reddit.com/r/goddesses/comments/osjvd1

 

[mrpickem]

• Detroit ML / F5 ...Reason: Another day, another chance to bet against JA Happ. In his last 2 starts against DET (July 8 and July 18), he has given up 10 runs in 14 innings. The better start was on 7/8 pitching at home where he went 7 IP and gave up 3 runs. However, the potential for him to blow up at any time is always there as evidenced by his over 6 ERA on the season. In 4 July starts, it is over 7. Wily Peralta has also pitched two games recently against MIN (July 11 and July 18). He went 12 innings and gave up only 1 run. And that was when Nelson Cruz was still with the Twins. Gimme the Tigs all day at plus money F5 and ML
• St Louis ...Was strongly considering the tribe, but with SL starting Kim it will be hard to fade them. Kim has been excellent and coming off a 24-inning scoreless streak. Plesac has not lived up to the hype this year. I'm not big on SL offense or I may even back St Loo as a dog. Looking at the numbers, only 50.55% of bets are on SL, but over 89% of the money back SL..this usually eludes to a lot of pros on the cards but I will monitor is closer to first pitch before making a call...or not

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 8.64/8 CARDINALS (STL) -108
• 5/4.17 Cardinals / Indians OVER 8½ -120
• 6/5.00 Cardinals -120 for 1st 5 Innings
• 5/5.00 Cardinals Team Total OVER 4½ +100
• 4/4.60 Indians Team Total OVER 4½ +115
• 5/5.70 1H TIGERS (DET) +114 (PERALTA -R / HAPP -L)
• 5/5.50 Blue Jays / Red Sox OVER 8½ +110 for Game

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
YESTERDAY [11-7-3 +13.7u]

TODAY:

• 5/6.60 951 Atlanta Braves +132
• 5/5.65 958 San Francisco Giants +113
• 6/3.31 959 Milwaukee Brewers -181
• 6/3.45 965 Chicago White Sox -174
• 5/4.35 965 Chicago White Sox -1½ -115
• 5/3.36 968 Detroit Tigers -149

Pend;
PHI 1'
SD & 1' & O


CHASIN YESTERDAY; 4-2 UNDER; 2-0 OVER; 1-1

CHASIN TODAY...
SD
MIL
TOR
CHC U
PIT U
TB U
NYM O
SF O

randoms...

CHW 7-1 L8 THUR games
CHW 47-18 L65 as a FAV
KC 2-6 L8 THUR games
CHW 16-6 in L22 meetings
CHW 11-2 SU L13 on the road vs KC
RODON ROLLIN ;-/

 

[VolsWhiskeyMaker]

Thank you for the info and work you put in but more importantly thank you for the daily photos.

 

[laopadak]

lol, daily pics/picks are awesome

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 4/6.64 PHILLES (PHA) -GM1 -1½+166
• 5/3.97 Braves Team Total OVER 3½ -126
• 7/2.68 Padres -261
• 5/4.03 PADRES (SD) -1½-124
• 5/4.63 ROCKIES (COL) o8-108
• 4/2.86 White Sox -½ -140 for 1st 5 Innings
• 4/3.81 Reds -½ -105 for 1st 5 Innings
• 4/3.08 Brewers -½ -130 for 1st 5 Innings
• 4/3.33 Tigers -½ -120 for 1st 5 Innings

F5 thots...

• White Sox F5 -½ -140 ...Rodon had his first bad start in what seems like forever. Liking him to bounce back against a bad Royals offense today. Hernandez has been someone who I have faded often. The Sox should be able to plate a few.
• Brewers F5 -½ -130 ...Same trend as yesterday the Pirates have more or less given up on this season. Peralta will be limited in this one but I don't think he'll have much of a problem with the Pirates. Kuhl has been an okay arm for the Pirates, but the Brewers should be good enough to squeeze out a few runs.
• Reds F5 -½ -105 ...Really like this spot at plus money. Castillo has been one the best pitchers in baseball since June. Mills has had a few good starts vs bad offenses, but nothing I worry too much about. Votto has been out of this world in the past few weeks. Hopefully he is in the lineup today. Even if he isn't at these odds I'll bite.
• Tigers F5 -½ -120 ...Tigers have been destroying soft tossing lefties all year. See yesterday with Happ. Wells may only pitch a few innings in this one as an opener or just cause he gets shelled. Mize with be on a pitch count, but was allowed to work into the 5th in his last start. Mize should be able to keep the Tigers ahead while he's in the game.

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
YESTERDAY [9-6 +8.01u]

TODAY:

• 5/3.70 PIRATES (PIT) +1½-135
• 5/4.59 DODGERS (LAD) -1½-109
• 5/5.00 Dodgers / Diamondbacks OVER 9 +100
• 5/8.55 Rockies +171
• 5/4.59 ROCKIES (COL) o8-109
• 5/6.70 Orioles +134
• 6/3.08 WHITE SOX (CWS) -195
• 5/5.05 INDIANS / WHITE SOX o8½+101
• 5/4.90 ATHLETICS / ANGELS o8½-102
• 5/6.90 MARLINS +138
• 5/5.35 ASTROS +107

Pend;
BOS 1' & O
SEA O


CHASIN YESTERDAY; 2-1 UNDER; 0-3 OVER; 1-1

CHASIN TODAY...
LAA
SL
COL
SL O

randoms...

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 5/4.50 ATHLETICS (OAK) -111
• 6/3.87 RED SOX (BOS) +1½-155
• 5/5.15 RED SOX / RAYS o9+103

 

[mrpickem]

rest of my Friday board...

• 4/8.40 Royals +210
• 5/10.75 Indians +215
• 5/6.25 Reds +125
• 5/7.15 RANGERS (TEX) +143
• 5/6.25 Indians Team Total OVER 3½ +125
• 5/5.70 White Sox Team Total UNDER 4½ +114
• 5/5.55 Rangers Team Total OVER 3½ +111
• 5/4.55 Brewers Team Total OVER 4½ -110
• 5/4.55 MARINERS / RANGERS o7½-110

note: I flipped to CLE at a great number :tiphat:

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
YESTERDAY [15-8 +38.83u] :teethgrill:

TODAY:

• 5/7.25 Pirates +145
• 5/5.10 PIRATES (PIT) u8+102
• 5/5.65 Reds +113
• 5/4.76 Brewers / Braves under 8½ -105
• 6/2.88 BLUE JAYS (TOR) -208
• 5/4.46 BLUE JAYS (TOR) -1½-112
• 5/4.90 RAYS (TB) -102
• 5/4.95 Tigers -101
• 5/5.05 WHITE SOX (CWS) u9+101
• 5/4.90 Giants -102

Pend;
SD & 1'
LAA
AZ & U


CHASIN YESTERDAY; 1-1 UNDER; 0-0 OVER; 0-1

CHASIN TODAY...
AZ
SD
PHI
CLE
PIT U
LAA O

randoms...

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

add

• 5/6.65 ANGELS (LAA) +133