July 24 MLB Discussion yo mama looks like clint hurdle

Johnnyonthespot

Johnnyonthespot

CTG Regular
Early game Julio is great on extended rest as is Chen. Pitches great at home too. Lean under.

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Braves raked all game tonight with 16 hits. Freddie hits Chen. Tehran splits outside rest are middling tho.

Chen beat Teheran May 20 at ATL
 
Lawrence is shown picking Miami tomorrow. That seems very odd. Teheran is the road pitcher and Eddings usually goes goes with the road team. Teheran has a 2.77 ERA era with Eddings Wei no history
 
random rambling...

BOS vs BAL - If you have a bad pitcher (Pomeranz) vs a bad offense (BAL) on one end, and a pitcher (Y. Ramirez) who's only pitched 5 major league games vs one of the best offense in the league (BOS), you're always gonna side with the Red Sox. The only way Boston loses is if Pomeranz manages to give up 7+ before the 3rd inning and even then i feel like Boston can come back from it.

MIN vs TOR - Last week I would of taken Berrios and the Twins for sure but Berrios burned me last start and the Twins got swept by the Royals! The only info I know about Borucki is that he's been sharp at home, giving up only 3 runs in 14 innings pitched, including the Yankees. Berrios meanwhile pitches worse when he's not home, so this feels like a trap game. Berrios is only -120, so that's saying something.

PIT vs CLE - Kluber got demolished last night but I'll chalk that up to his bad knees and atrocious defense. If you really want action towards this game, I'm leaning towards Cleveland. Bieber has a better pitch control than Musgrove as well as a better offense to back him up. Trying to find reason to ride Bucs

TEX vs OAK - I'll side with Oakland since they are playing much better than the Rangers right now. Both really bad pitchers but over 11 is too risky given their inconsistent offenses.

WSH vs MIL - Nothing makes sense about Chacin only giving up one run to a supposebly good lineup that WSH is known for. We now have a showdown between Hellickson and Guerra who has almost the same ERA, including Hellickson's away ERA and Guerra's home ERA. Both offenses are equally as threatening. I'll back MIL based on the shitstorm that is WAS

HOU vs COL - Hard game to bet on especially since it's Interleague. Gerritt Cole and the Astros should take this one, but Tyler Anderson have been great pitching at Coors, and the Rockies are 8-2 their last 10 at home. Will be on stros if I play it

ATL vs MIA - I want to slam ATL and the over but Wei-Yin Chen has been decent this year at home. Teheran also does better pitching away from Suntrust Park. This one is gonna be tough.

STL vs CIN - Not much info on Gomber other than him giving up 10 hits, 7 walks and 6 runs in 13 innings of bullpen relief. He also induces a lot of fly balls and with the winds blowing to right field, I'm expecting left handed studs like Carpenter to hit one out the park. Homer Bailey is also a dogshit pitcher so I'm siding with the over.

LAD vs PHI - I'm leaning towards Phillies here with their best pitcher Nola on the mound. LAD currently has a ridiculous offense with newly aquired Machado and Maeda is no slouch either. This could really go either way although Phillies were one of the few teams this year to break Maeda. If they can score 5 runs off Stripling, who is arguably a better pitcher than Maeda, they have a much better chance of outscoring the dodgers.

CHW vs LAA - Rodon has been so bad pitching away while Pena has been pitching bad at home. I'm leaning towards Angels and the over this game, but the over is a lot tougher to take because CHW offense sucks. Angels might be the play

SF vs SEA - Paxton left last game with a stiff back and screwed 80% of the public backing him. Seattle should take this if Paxton plays at 100% and out pitch Giant's Suarez. I don't like the -195 on Paxton especially since he came out of an injury so I'll steer clear of this one.
 
tuck321 said:
Lawrence is shown picking Miami tomorrow. That seems very odd. Teheran is the road pitcher and Eddings usually goes goes with the road team. Teheran has a 2.77 ERA era with Eddings Wei no history
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Who is Lawrence? I’m already kicking myself for passing on Atl yesterday which was clearly easy money. That line was so low and Newcomb hadn’t been pitching well. Today, similar with that line being so low and Chen can pitch well at home. Atlanta way better team though bottom line
 
Regarding Yefry Ramirez the SP for O's. He prolly has the best stuff on the staff. Faced Bosox 1st game. Got his feet wet. Im not going to fade him.
 
Heavy rain is in the forecast Tuesday for the Baltimore area, threatening the middle contest of a three-game series between the Boston Red Sox and the hometown Orioles. Much of the East Coast is being plagued by stormy conditions this week and the mid-Atlantic area is experiencing a particularly rainy situation.

There were multiple rain delays during Boston's 5-3 win in the series opener Monday, which gave the Red Sox nine straight victories at Camden Yards. Mitch Moreland homered, Andrew Benintendi drove in two runs and Rick Porcello tossed six scoreless innings for Boston, which has opened up a season-high six-game lead in the American League East. Drew Pomeranz (biceps tendinitis) is scheduled to come off the 10-day disabled list and make the start for the Red Sox opposite righty Yefry Ramirez. The Orioles are 0-4 since trading away All-Star shortstop Manny Machado.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox LH Drew Pomeranz (1-3, 6.81 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Yefry Ramirez (0-3, 3.09)

Pomeranz gave up 14 runs (13 earned) in 12 1/3 innings over his last three starts prior to going on the DL. One of those outings was a loss to Baltimore, which got to the big lefty for five runs over four frames. The 29-year-old Pomeranz has a 1.80 ERA in four career games (two starts) at Camden Yards.

Ramirez struck out seven and yielded two hits over five scoreless innings against Texas in his last start before the All-Star break. The 24-year-old rookie began his career in the majors with 4 1/3 innings of three-run ball versus Boston on June 13. Ramirez is holding opponents to a .224 average and has 24 strikeouts through his first 23 1/3 innings.
 
@mrpickem it seems like by default you go favorite instead of dog, so we will likely never agree, but everything you wrote would make me want to back CHW at nearly +170

I'm nervous about the CHW lineup and pen, but LAA has its flaws and while i don't know much about their SP i do know that Rodon can be nasty when he's on and he should be healthier
 
I might be nuts but I like Chen here but I don't trust anything after either starter....

I took Miami +.5 1st 5 and U4 1st 5
 
I’m right with you. Same shit as yesterday, which tricked me into taking Miami, but I’m coming back for more today. Super low line, that seems to keep dropping, with over 70% on Atl.
 
T-Rex said:
Who is Lawrence? I’m already kicking myself for passing on Atl yesterday which was clearly easy money. That line was so low and Newcomb hadn’t been pitching well. Today, similar with that line being so low and Chen can pitch well at home. Atlanta way better team though bottom line
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I like atl vs lefties so think I gotta ride w them.
 
GWarner27 said:
no clue why anyone wants to back Bieber, unless you're into his music

PIT better SP and they are the hottest team in beisbol
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Crazy lines this series, not often you can get a team on the kind of heater pirates are on at these prices.
 
Tribe is flat out overrated. This is not the same team from the last couple years. The public continues to bet like they are, which will create opportunity to find value on dogs against. Going back to the well on Pitt today, no way Bieber warrants this kind of #
 
Big_Degenerate said:
Tribe is flat out overrated. This is not the same team from the last couple years. The public continues to bet like they are, which will create opportunity to find value on dogs against. Going back to the well on Pitt today, no way Bieber warrants this kind of #
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I still believe they capable of making the playoffs interesting against the big 3 if they figure their pen out. I just don’t think they have much incentive to play great in regular season as winning that division is really easy, lol.
 
Other than few outliers over the years Teheran has been pretty fantastic on extra rest. Last 2 years sporting a sub 3 era in these spots. Era under 3 in few starts with big E as well.
 
2daBank said:
I still believe they capable of making the playoffs interesting against the big 3 if they figure their pen out. I just don’t think they have much incentive to play great in regular season as winning that division is really easy, lol.
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Completely agree and I think that pen will be very very good when Miller gets back (next week I think)
 
Marc Lawrence major tout not going good.
Have bet Pitt and Oakland. Would have hit Oakland without May Frankie loves night games and on 6+ 1,37 ERA
Minor on 6+ 5.92 on a over 30 inning sample
Bieber is not a bad pitcher but no plus on 6+ and is just outclassed by Musgrove who is a junior edition of Frankie
TYler is not good on 6+ Cole should win at pitching but right now would assume Colorado has much better bats
 
Current Trends: Houston Astros

  • Better winning percentage on the road (.694) versus home (.604);
  • Better team batting average against lefties (.274) than righties (.254);
  • Better team batting average on the road (.273) than home (.248);
  • Run differential is best in the major leagues;
  • 5-5 in last 10; 2-1 since the All-Star break.
Current Trends: Colorado Rockies

  • Worse winning percentage at home (.500) than on the road (.566);
  • Still, much better team batting average at home (.285) versus road (.232);
  • Just four losses in July with +40 RD makes this month the best of the season by far;
  • 7-3 in last 10; 2-1 since the All-Star break.
Gerrit Cole Key Stats

  • Coming off of back-to-back starts where he gave up just three hits;
  • Average run support of 6 runs this season;
  • Unbeaten this season when Astros score 3 or more runs;
  • Unbeaten in career when Astros score 6 or more runs;
  • Second half career stats far worse: .523 winning percentage versus .667 in first half;
  • But July is a decent month career-wise: 10-7/2.62 ERA/1.030 WHIP;
  • Does poorly on six or more days of rest (.520 winning percentage over his career versus .661 on four days’ rest and .559 on five days’);
  • Only has one career start at Coors Field, a 6-inning/8 hit/2 earned run outing in a winning cause.
Tyler Anderson Key Stats

  • Four consecutive quality starts, over which he gave up four earned runs, total;
  • Better at home in career (.556 win percentage, 3.58 ERA) versus road (.500, 4.46), though WHIP are about the same;
  • Better in second half in career (.636 win percentage, 3.20 ERA, 1.164 WHIP) than first (.476/4.32/1.317);
  • Has a .500 record on six days’ of rest or more as a starter (4-4), with 4.63 ERA and 1.314 WHIP. These numbers are much worse than five days’ rest (5-0/3.33/1.227);
  • Better won/loss record in night games (.652 win percentage versus 2-7 during day) but this may be misleading as ERA is much worse in night starts (4.19) than day (3.52) and WHIP are largely identical (1.289 night/1.227 day).
  • Has never faced the Houston Astros.
 
tuck321 said:
Just avoiding the game.
I see Cole on 6 this year 2.08 ERA at baseball ref
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I was really hoping to see him have poor numbers at coors with a bigger sample too. Unfortunately just 1 start and was a pretty good 1. Prob avoiding this one also.
 
By theway when are you guys going to look at the weird line action in Dodgers at Philadelphia
 
Both pitchers have been pitching great over the last 30 days. SIERA's under 3, with very high SwSt and K rates and similar BABIP's slightly below 0.300. Nola only has 19% hard hits against over this span while Maeda is at 49%. The Phillies high strikeout rate combined with Maeda's swing and miss stuff is a bit worrying, but they have decent historic numbers against him in limited at bats, and I like Nola to be able to shut down the powerful Dodgers lineup. Glad I wait a bit to get better price :happydance3:
 
tuck321 said:
By theway when are you guys going to look at the weird line action in Dodgers at Philadelphia
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It pretty much flipped not long after it became clear the Phils were going to have to burn through their pen last night. Phils must have Nola go deep, and I think he will.
 
I'm less pissed now about the 2 run mind f*ck of an error by Enciarte after this 5th inning. Thought I had a great shot to scoop both the Marlins and 1st 5 under but clearly this 5th inning showed that wasn't going to happen...lol
 
PaintCrew said:
I'm less pissed now about the 2 run mind f*ck of an error by Enciarte after this 5th inning. Thought I had a great shot to scoop both the Marlins and 1st 5 under but clearly this 5th inning showed that wasn't going to happen...lol
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I’m so freaking glad game started before I realized. Lol
 
tuck321 said:
By theway when are you guys going to look at the weird line action in Dodgers at Philadelphia
Click to expand...

Line movement doesn’t mean much to me but this the one thing I do take notice of when a team opens as favs and gets bet to dogs. I tend to either play team books opened as favs or pass. I simply trust books initial line more than the money that disagrees.
 
2daBank said:
Line movement doesn’t mean much to me but this the one thing I do take notice of when a team opens as favs and gets bet to dogs. I tend to either play team books opened as favs or pass. I simply trust books initial line more than the money that disagrees.
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Remember they opened before Philly starter only went 2.2 and they had to blow threw arms yesterday...probably at least three pen arms that won't be available or be mush tonight. Must have Nola go 7 strong I'd think. Dodgers pen went somewhat typical, no more than an inning apiece.
 
KJ said:
Remember they opened before Philly starter only went 2.2 and they had to blow threw arms yesterday...probably at least three pen arms that won't be available or be mush tonight. Must have Nola go 7 strong I'd think. Dodgers pen went somewhat typical, no more than an inning apiece.
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He been so good at home, 9 starts and a 8-0 record with a sub 2 era. Just no way I can pass on getting plus money on that.
 
I played over 11.5 +130 in cincy. Bailey with god awful numbers last 3 years at home, bad numbers w this ump, cards have pretty much blasted him w most the team sporting a ops above .900... reds w 6th best ops vs lefties, can’t really expect Gonber to go deep here, maybe 6 but 5 seems more likely so that leaves lot of our pen, new manager seems more than willing to use Lyons and Cecil who are both gas cans and both warmed up at various times yesterday so good chance we see those scrubs. Slight wind blowing out. Should be lot of runs in this one.
 
BALTIMORE -- The Boston Red Sox have experienced little trouble when playing the Baltimore Orioles so far this season, and they're hoping to continue finding success when the two teams meet Tuesday night at Camden Yards.

Boston scored a 5-3 victory over Baltimore Monday night in the opener of the three-game series. The Red Sox now have a 10-1 record against the Orioles in 2018.
Drew Pomeranz (1-3, 6.81 ERA) will come back from the disabled list to start for Boston on Tuesday night. He last pitched May 31 and has been out ever since due to left biceps tendinitis followed by a neck problem.

The left-hander has a 2-4 career record against the Orioles with a 4.01 ERA.

Pomeranz will go against rookie right-hander Yefry Ramirez (0-3, 3.09). This will be his fifth major league start and sixth appearance since coming up to Baltimore recently.
Ramirez has pitched well in most of his appearances and pushed fellow rookie David Hess out of the starting rotation and back to the minors. The right-hander made his major league debut versus Boston on June 13, giving up three runs on four hits in 4 1/3 innings with six strikeouts.

The Red Sox scored a 5-1 victory that day, but Ramirez has caught the attention of Orioles manager Buck Showalter, a reason the rookie's been getting regular starts.
Ramirez has an 0-1 career mark against the Red Sox with a 6.23 ERA.

The Orioles and Showalter will have some tough decisions in the final days of this month before the July 31 trade deadline. Many expect Baltimore to trade players like Zach Britton, Adam Jones and possibly others such as Brad Brach.
Showalter said that the way he puts players out of the field will depend upon several issues.
"There's a lot of different things," Showalter told MASN.com. "You've got a responsibility to the game, but I've got as big a responsibility to the Orioles and our fans. So there's a lot of things that go through my mind every night during the course of a game, trying to do what's best. Even making a lineup out."
Many feel that Britton, the team's closer, could be traded in the coming days. The question also is what might happen with Jones -- would he get traded for the rest of the season and then possibly sign a contract with Baltimore in the offseason?

The Orioles are coming into this game with the worst record in baseball at 28-73 -- and trying to break a four-game losing streak.

The Red Sox, clearly one of the top teams in baseball with a record of 71-31, are keeping their eyes open for any extra help they can get.
However, manager Alex Cora made it clear that Boston will not shake up its main group of players in looking to make a move.
"Whatever we do, whatever happens, we are going to keep the core, which is very important," Cora told reporters on Monday. "I don't see too many people anxious about it. Probably they talk about it, but there's not a guy that has come up to me and been like, 'Hey, man, what's going on?' "
 
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