Jets vs. Broncos NFL Week 3 Picks and Odds Breakdown
New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Mile High Stadium in Denver
The Surprising Jet Passing Defense
Part of why the over/under for this game is too high is that it is difficult for oddsmakers to account for just how good the Jet passing defense is.
This difficulty derives partly from the comparatively low expectations for this group heading into the season.
Their success so far, though, has been top-level in several respects.
They are one of three NFL teams whose cornerback group has allowed zero touchdowns through Weeks 1 and 2.
Furthermore, they rank top-six in stats like: air yards allowed per reception, yards allowed per reception, yards allowed per target, and yards allowed per cover snap.
Easy Competition?
Skeptics want to point to the competition the Jet cornerback group has faced so far as a source of doubt regarding its actual quality.
But there are two responses, that I will make in turn, to doubts of this kind: New York's quality of competition is understated while the next quarterback that it will face is not worth fearing.
As for the first response, the Jets first faced Carolina. It's superficially easy to point to Sam Darnold's stats and rankings last year in order to make the claim that he's an easy quarterback for any defense to handle.
But Darnold was a Jet last year, a member of the second-worst team that included an offense bereft of pass protection, pass-catching weapons, and run support.
There was little any quarterback could have done with that lack of support. He actually ranked very highly in key passing stats when he threw from a clean pocket.
This year, Darnold as a Panther has a passer rating that is nearly 30 points higher after helping to beat the Saints in Week 2.
The other quarterback that the Jets faced was Patriot rookie Mac Jones. Again, one can make a superficial sort of dismissal by pointing to his rookie status.
But Jones performed well (281 passer rating, 102.6 passer rating) against a Dolphin team that has invested heavily in its secondary, which includes two strong cornerbacks with an All-Pro and three Pro Bowls between them. Jones was not as strong against the Jet pass defense.
My second response to skeptics is that Bronco QB Teddy Bridgewater has never been a fear-inspiring quarterback. He's never managed a 100 passer rating in a season, despite being on some teams with real pass-catching weapons.
For good reason, he's been bounced around four different teams since his rookie year in 2014.
Plus, Denver's receiving corps is banged-up particularly with the absence of Jerry Jeudy.
Jet Offense vs. Denver Defense
If you don't like the Bronco offense in this game -- as I don't -- then "under" is the only reasonable play left and it makes a ton of sense.
As weird as it might be to say this, the Jet offense is overvalued. Its statistics are inflated by a tremendous amount of garbage time in both of its first two games this season.
Before either game was decided, however, the Jet offense could literally hardly do anything.
In the first half against New England, the Jets managed two drives that went for more than 20 yards. One of those drives ended in an interception, the other in the team's only three points in the half.
Regarding the Jets' Week 1 contest, they managed zero first-half points against Carolina.
Quarterback Zach Wilson is very obviously a rookie. He's completing 55.7-percent of his passes and has thrown five interceptions to two touchdowns.
He's making some poor decisions and showing inconsistent zip on his passes.
But, similar to Darnold last year, he's getting minimal support. His lack of pass protection is hard to overcome -- think of Mahomes last year in the Super Bowl for a clearer idea of how important pass protection is for any quarterback.
Moreover, his wide receivers struggle to get separation and they must also take accountability for some of Wilson's interceptions.
Things won't get easy, though, against a Bronco defense that ranks fifth in limiting opposing passing yards thanks in part to a strong secondary that recently added the ninth overall pick in the last draft, Patrick Surtain.
Of course, the Bronco cornerback unit is headed by former first-team All-Pro Kyle Fuller.
The Verdict
Prior games this season suggest that we may have a situation where the Jets can score some garbage-time points near the end of the game and possibly manage to cover.
In the first half, Denver's defense will be maximally focused as the game will not be decided so early.
While Denver's offense isn't scary with Bridgewater against an underrated Jet secondary, New York's offense has produced three first-half points in two games.
For the above reasons, take the first-half "under."
Best Bet: First-Half Under 21 at -105 with BetOnline
New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Mile High Stadium in Denver
The Surprising Jet Passing Defense
Part of why the over/under for this game is too high is that it is difficult for oddsmakers to account for just how good the Jet passing defense is.
This difficulty derives partly from the comparatively low expectations for this group heading into the season.
Their success so far, though, has been top-level in several respects.
They are one of three NFL teams whose cornerback group has allowed zero touchdowns through Weeks 1 and 2.
Furthermore, they rank top-six in stats like: air yards allowed per reception, yards allowed per reception, yards allowed per target, and yards allowed per cover snap.
Easy Competition?
Skeptics want to point to the competition the Jet cornerback group has faced so far as a source of doubt regarding its actual quality.
But there are two responses, that I will make in turn, to doubts of this kind: New York's quality of competition is understated while the next quarterback that it will face is not worth fearing.
As for the first response, the Jets first faced Carolina. It's superficially easy to point to Sam Darnold's stats and rankings last year in order to make the claim that he's an easy quarterback for any defense to handle.
But Darnold was a Jet last year, a member of the second-worst team that included an offense bereft of pass protection, pass-catching weapons, and run support.
There was little any quarterback could have done with that lack of support. He actually ranked very highly in key passing stats when he threw from a clean pocket.
This year, Darnold as a Panther has a passer rating that is nearly 30 points higher after helping to beat the Saints in Week 2.
The other quarterback that the Jets faced was Patriot rookie Mac Jones. Again, one can make a superficial sort of dismissal by pointing to his rookie status.
But Jones performed well (281 passer rating, 102.6 passer rating) against a Dolphin team that has invested heavily in its secondary, which includes two strong cornerbacks with an All-Pro and three Pro Bowls between them. Jones was not as strong against the Jet pass defense.
My second response to skeptics is that Bronco QB Teddy Bridgewater has never been a fear-inspiring quarterback. He's never managed a 100 passer rating in a season, despite being on some teams with real pass-catching weapons.
For good reason, he's been bounced around four different teams since his rookie year in 2014.
Plus, Denver's receiving corps is banged-up particularly with the absence of Jerry Jeudy.
Jet Offense vs. Denver Defense
If you don't like the Bronco offense in this game -- as I don't -- then "under" is the only reasonable play left and it makes a ton of sense.
As weird as it might be to say this, the Jet offense is overvalued. Its statistics are inflated by a tremendous amount of garbage time in both of its first two games this season.
Before either game was decided, however, the Jet offense could literally hardly do anything.
In the first half against New England, the Jets managed two drives that went for more than 20 yards. One of those drives ended in an interception, the other in the team's only three points in the half.
Regarding the Jets' Week 1 contest, they managed zero first-half points against Carolina.
Quarterback Zach Wilson is very obviously a rookie. He's completing 55.7-percent of his passes and has thrown five interceptions to two touchdowns.
He's making some poor decisions and showing inconsistent zip on his passes.
But, similar to Darnold last year, he's getting minimal support. His lack of pass protection is hard to overcome -- think of Mahomes last year in the Super Bowl for a clearer idea of how important pass protection is for any quarterback.
Moreover, his wide receivers struggle to get separation and they must also take accountability for some of Wilson's interceptions.
Things won't get easy, though, against a Bronco defense that ranks fifth in limiting opposing passing yards thanks in part to a strong secondary that recently added the ninth overall pick in the last draft, Patrick Surtain.
Of course, the Bronco cornerback unit is headed by former first-team All-Pro Kyle Fuller.
The Verdict
Prior games this season suggest that we may have a situation where the Jets can score some garbage-time points near the end of the game and possibly manage to cover.
In the first half, Denver's defense will be maximally focused as the game will not be decided so early.
While Denver's offense isn't scary with Bridgewater against an underrated Jet secondary, New York's offense has produced three first-half points in two games.
For the above reasons, take the first-half "under."
Best Bet: First-Half Under 21 at -105 with BetOnline
