NFL Parlay for Sunday’s Games at +496 Odds
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, January 3, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts
New York’s Last-Placed Offense
The Jets arguably possess the worst offense in the NFL.
They rank last in averaging 15.3 points per game. They also rank last in averaging 275.3 yards per game.
Their dearth of playmakers on the ground or in the air explains why they likewise rank last in averaging 4.7 yards per play.
Clean Pocket
It’s telling and interesting to note that Jet quarterback Sam Darnold owns a miserable 72.3 passer rating, but also owns the fourth-best completion percentage in a clean pocket.
These two statistics indicate that Darnold is great when he doesn’t face pressure from the opposing pass rush, but that he rarely finds encounters this propitious circumstance.
Even when the Jets faced Las Vegas and its 30th-ranked pass rush in terms of sack percentage, the Raiders accrued three sacks and seven quarterback hits. Darnold failed to reach 200 yards passing.
So one might say that Darnold can succeed against a Patriot defense that does not boast a great pass rush. But the Jet pass rush is vulnerable to every team and Darnold suffers as a result.
Secondary
Jet backers might also want to say that New England’s pass defense is worse off without star cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
But the Patriot secondary remains filled with individual ability.
The Jets want to rely especially on Jamison Crowder in the passing game. He has 31 more targets than the next-most targeted Jet receiver.
J.C. Jackson, though, is a stud for New England’s secondary. The Patriots’ top healthy cornerback accomplishes a 58 passer rating when targeted.
Jonathan Jones, too, is worth mentioning for ranking 13th among cornerbacks according to PFF.
Jones and Jackson have both been tasked successfully with manning the slot position which Crowder likes to occupy. But you’ll find them all over the field.
Despite a lack of pass rush — which isn’t even a problem against the Jets — the Patriots rank seventh in pass defense because of their high-quality secondary.
Total Caution
It’s easy to want to bet the “under” because New England’s offense has issues of its own.
Bettors are aware of these issues, which is why the total has dropped from 43 to 39.5.
It’s really hard to take the “under” on such a low total.
Fortunately, this game offers a unique angle that should compel you to bet on the Patriots.
Situation
Jet head coach Adam Gase was informed that he will be fired after Sunday’s game.
I can’t imagine why he would have any motivation to prepare his team well or to game-plan seriously for Sunday’s game.
But I can imagine motivation for Patriot head coach Bill Belichick.
His Patriots were embarrassed at home on primetime television.
Now they can finish strong in their home finale.
The Verdict
A bet on the Jets would require the New York offense to be not simply better than New England’s, but better than New England’s despite the Patriots’ secondary being 22 spots better than New York’s.
So not only do the Patriots have the edge, match up well with Darnold, and won’t be threatened by injured 37 year-old running back Frank Gore’s backup, but the situation loudly speaks in their favor.
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, January 3, 2020 at 4:25 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas
Misconception
Every year, a number of bettors fall for this ridiculous belief that teams will perform better because they “need” the win more.
There are so many counterexamples to offer, one arising last week. Last week, the Panthers were eliminated from playoff contention while Washington needed to win to satisfy its playoff hopes. Yet the Panthers won.
A number of psychological realities could undermine this misconception. Perhaps the team that needs to win struggles with pressure. Perhaps the team with nothing to play for plays better when it’s “just having fun.”
For this game, we don’t need to speculate about different “perhapses.” Texan quarterback Deshaun Watson has clearly demonstrated his mentality by announcing that he will play in Sunday’s game despite suffering an (albeit non-serious) injury last week.
With nothing to play for, Watson could easily sit Sunday’s game out. But he wants to play and so he is going to want to win.
Tennessee’s Pass Defense
Tennessee’s pass defense continues to be abysmal.
It ranks last in sack percentage. The Titan pass defense also ranks 28th in opposing pass yards per game and 24th in opposing passer rating.
The Titans have faced a number of quarterbacks who capably move the ball downfield in a hurry.
They faced Deshaun Watson once already, Indianapolis’ Philip Rivers twice, and Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers.
In all of those games, the game flew over the total posted by NFL Oddsmakers.
So the “over” is 5-0 in games where Tennessee faces a quarterback that ranks top-10 in passing yards.
Ryan Tannehill
Titan quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been superb especially when top wide receiver AJ Brown is healthy.
Brown is an explosive threat who has always accrued a lot of yards per catch since he entered the NFL.
His speed makes him an ascending target downfield. His physicality makes him strong after the catch.
Tannehill has great chemistry with him and with plenty other Titan targets who help him rank fourth in passer rating and seventh in passing touchdowns.
Brown will thrive especially without the suspended Bradley Roby, who was Houston’s top cornerback on the field.
Even with Roby, the Texans owned one of the NFL’s worst pass defense units. They currently rank 26th in opposing pass yards per game and 31st in opposing passer rating.
Total Verdict
Both offenses possess a lot of support on the ground — while Houston’s running backs accrued a lot of big plays last week, for example, Tennessee's Derrick Henry is a threat to take it to the house on any given play. He leads the NFL with 1,777 rushing yards.
Both offenses will thrive by passing the ball with minimal resistance.
As such, we will see a competitive, back-and-forth, high-scoring game.
Side Verdict
With Houston at home, this spread is insane. I think this misconception about teams playing better when they “need” to win more is baked into this line.
The Texans have been dogged by more than a touchdown in three different games — against the Chiefs, Ravens, and Colts.
They covered agains the Colts, but not against the Ravens and Chiefs. But Baltimore and Kansas City possess terrific secondaries and very highly-ranked pass defenses. Defensively, they reside in a different stratosphere than the Titans.
Parlay Verdict
New England will defeat the Jets thanks to its defensive edge and positive situation. Houston will remain within a touchdown of Tennessee by keeping pace offensively.
Best Bet: Parlay Patriots ML at -165, Titans/Texans Over 55.5 at -108, Texans +7.5 at -108 at +496 Odds with Heritage
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, January 3, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts
New York’s Last-Placed Offense
The Jets arguably possess the worst offense in the NFL.
They rank last in averaging 15.3 points per game. They also rank last in averaging 275.3 yards per game.
Their dearth of playmakers on the ground or in the air explains why they likewise rank last in averaging 4.7 yards per play.
Clean Pocket
It’s telling and interesting to note that Jet quarterback Sam Darnold owns a miserable 72.3 passer rating, but also owns the fourth-best completion percentage in a clean pocket.
These two statistics indicate that Darnold is great when he doesn’t face pressure from the opposing pass rush, but that he rarely finds encounters this propitious circumstance.
Even when the Jets faced Las Vegas and its 30th-ranked pass rush in terms of sack percentage, the Raiders accrued three sacks and seven quarterback hits. Darnold failed to reach 200 yards passing.
So one might say that Darnold can succeed against a Patriot defense that does not boast a great pass rush. But the Jet pass rush is vulnerable to every team and Darnold suffers as a result.
Secondary
Jet backers might also want to say that New England’s pass defense is worse off without star cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
But the Patriot secondary remains filled with individual ability.
The Jets want to rely especially on Jamison Crowder in the passing game. He has 31 more targets than the next-most targeted Jet receiver.
J.C. Jackson, though, is a stud for New England’s secondary. The Patriots’ top healthy cornerback accomplishes a 58 passer rating when targeted.
Jonathan Jones, too, is worth mentioning for ranking 13th among cornerbacks according to PFF.
Jones and Jackson have both been tasked successfully with manning the slot position which Crowder likes to occupy. But you’ll find them all over the field.
Despite a lack of pass rush — which isn’t even a problem against the Jets — the Patriots rank seventh in pass defense because of their high-quality secondary.
Total Caution
It’s easy to want to bet the “under” because New England’s offense has issues of its own.
Bettors are aware of these issues, which is why the total has dropped from 43 to 39.5.
It’s really hard to take the “under” on such a low total.
Fortunately, this game offers a unique angle that should compel you to bet on the Patriots.
Situation
Jet head coach Adam Gase was informed that he will be fired after Sunday’s game.
I can’t imagine why he would have any motivation to prepare his team well or to game-plan seriously for Sunday’s game.
But I can imagine motivation for Patriot head coach Bill Belichick.
His Patriots were embarrassed at home on primetime television.
Now they can finish strong in their home finale.
The Verdict
A bet on the Jets would require the New York offense to be not simply better than New England’s, but better than New England’s despite the Patriots’ secondary being 22 spots better than New York’s.
So not only do the Patriots have the edge, match up well with Darnold, and won’t be threatened by injured 37 year-old running back Frank Gore’s backup, but the situation loudly speaks in their favor.
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, January 3, 2020 at 4:25 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas
Misconception
Every year, a number of bettors fall for this ridiculous belief that teams will perform better because they “need” the win more.
There are so many counterexamples to offer, one arising last week. Last week, the Panthers were eliminated from playoff contention while Washington needed to win to satisfy its playoff hopes. Yet the Panthers won.
A number of psychological realities could undermine this misconception. Perhaps the team that needs to win struggles with pressure. Perhaps the team with nothing to play for plays better when it’s “just having fun.”
For this game, we don’t need to speculate about different “perhapses.” Texan quarterback Deshaun Watson has clearly demonstrated his mentality by announcing that he will play in Sunday’s game despite suffering an (albeit non-serious) injury last week.
With nothing to play for, Watson could easily sit Sunday’s game out. But he wants to play and so he is going to want to win.
Tennessee’s Pass Defense
Tennessee’s pass defense continues to be abysmal.
It ranks last in sack percentage. The Titan pass defense also ranks 28th in opposing pass yards per game and 24th in opposing passer rating.
The Titans have faced a number of quarterbacks who capably move the ball downfield in a hurry.
They faced Deshaun Watson once already, Indianapolis’ Philip Rivers twice, and Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers.
In all of those games, the game flew over the total posted by NFL Oddsmakers.
So the “over” is 5-0 in games where Tennessee faces a quarterback that ranks top-10 in passing yards.
Ryan Tannehill
Titan quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been superb especially when top wide receiver AJ Brown is healthy.
Brown is an explosive threat who has always accrued a lot of yards per catch since he entered the NFL.
His speed makes him an ascending target downfield. His physicality makes him strong after the catch.
Tannehill has great chemistry with him and with plenty other Titan targets who help him rank fourth in passer rating and seventh in passing touchdowns.
Brown will thrive especially without the suspended Bradley Roby, who was Houston’s top cornerback on the field.
Even with Roby, the Texans owned one of the NFL’s worst pass defense units. They currently rank 26th in opposing pass yards per game and 31st in opposing passer rating.
Total Verdict
Both offenses possess a lot of support on the ground — while Houston’s running backs accrued a lot of big plays last week, for example, Tennessee's Derrick Henry is a threat to take it to the house on any given play. He leads the NFL with 1,777 rushing yards.
Both offenses will thrive by passing the ball with minimal resistance.
As such, we will see a competitive, back-and-forth, high-scoring game.
Side Verdict
With Houston at home, this spread is insane. I think this misconception about teams playing better when they “need” to win more is baked into this line.
The Texans have been dogged by more than a touchdown in three different games — against the Chiefs, Ravens, and Colts.
They covered agains the Colts, but not against the Ravens and Chiefs. But Baltimore and Kansas City possess terrific secondaries and very highly-ranked pass defenses. Defensively, they reside in a different stratosphere than the Titans.
Parlay Verdict
New England will defeat the Jets thanks to its defensive edge and positive situation. Houston will remain within a touchdown of Tennessee by keeping pace offensively.
Best Bet: Parlay Patriots ML at -165, Titans/Texans Over 55.5 at -108, Texans +7.5 at -108 at +496 Odds with Heritage
