Jan 14 NBA

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
Plays:
Toronto -4- 1 unit L
Indiana +105- 2 units W
4th Q Boston -2- 1.15 for 1 W
Washington +5- 1 unit L
Oklahoma City +5.5- 1 unit W
San Antonio -2.5- 3 units W
2nd H Wash/NY UNDER 101.5- 1 unit L
2nd H Dallas +3.5- 1 unit L
3rd Q SAS/LAL UNDER 50- 1 unit L
2nd H SA -1 (-115)- 1 unit L
8 pt Teaser: Indiana +9.5, Washington +12.5, Boston -2 (-120)- 1 unit W

ML Dogs:
OKC +190- .7 for 1.33 W
Miami +220- .625 for 1.375 W
Sacramento +185- .7 for 1.295 W
LAC +155- .8 for 1.24 L

day so far:
7-8
-1.75

updated
73-49
+24.8551

my power rating numbers:
Toronto -5
Indiana -1.5
Portland -1
Boston -11
New York -2.5
Utah -6.5
Milwaukee -2
New Orleans pk
San Antonio pk
Golden St -3.5
Atlanta -2

gonna get into games in a bit
 
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Chicago @ Toronto
Chicago finally with all their men back after Heinrich and Deng returned last game. Obviously they're not 100% yet, but having the team captains should help a bit. They are in a serious funk right now and can see it continuing. Meanwhile, O'neal injury has been a blessing for Toronto as Bosh/Bargnani have been playin real well together and the team has chemistry they havnt had in awhile. Chicago struggles when forced to defend bigs, and Bosh/Bargnani/possible O'neal will be way too much for them inside. Also, Bosh may be out for blood after the loss where KG locked him down. Lean to Toronto, but don't like the scheduling spot for Chicago- off 2 losses, and looking at likely 2 more losses on the horizon with games against cleveland and San Antonio.
 
Detroit @ Indiana
Gonna be on Indiana assuming a reasonable number. Would have preferred that Detroit won last night, but I guess I'll take a buzzer beater loss as emotionally draining. Detroit on a b2b where 4/5 starters logged over 35 minutes and the lack of cohesion was apparent late in the game as they scored 30 2nd H pts on the bobcats. That lack of momentum should carry over to today. Meanwhile, Indiana finally back home off a dissapointing 1-4 western road trip. Indiana is a tough home team, and they seem to step it up even more vs the elite teams in the league. Dunleavy is back, and they are 3-1 ATS with him back in. Hate that Detroit is off 2 losses, but I guess I'll take it smaller. Granger is on fire and should continue it tonight. Detroit 2nd game of 4/5 flying to OKC after this, while Indiana gets to stay home. Very likely gonna be on Indiana- probably 2 untis
 
Portland @ Philly
Philly has been playin real well lately, showing signs of the team they were last yr. Meanwhile, Portland is off a couple wins and are showing momentum. Both teams are tops in rebounds/offensive rebounding. Likely just gonna stay off of this one. Portland with a game 2m @ jersey. Philly trying to show they can beat upper tier teams, altho they still have yet to do it

Washington @ New York
Washington has been competing, but losing it in the end. I lean Wash here just as a fade of NY giving 5 pts. NY off a big win, a situation where they typically come out flat and lose. Yes there's talk that they won't do it again, but until I see it, I won't belive it. This team cannot be trusted off a big win. I'll likely get a unit on Wash, and ML. I think Wash tries to steal both of these games in the home n home. They've been competing just with bad results and the players are sick of it
 
Utah @ Oklahoma City
JP says Utah will lose, and I believe him. Don't know Millsap's status, and I think its pretty important here. They needed career game from Okur just to win in a great spot last game, showing me that maybe they're not too focused. Now, on the road, I don't see how they get up for this game. On a win streak, but one where they've just caught teams in horrible spots. Hoping for 7 for maybe a unit on line and unit ML and maybe unit TT over
 
Miami @ Milwaukee
What's new. Miami continues to cakewalk into games and steal it in the 4th, while Milwaukee ontinues to get inflated lines at home because of their ATS record. Hate that Miami's players played 40 min last night, but may just have to take the value and take Miami with the 5.5. Miami with revnge from last month while milwaukee been W-L for awhile now and can see it continuing tonight
 
Jersey @ Boston
I think Boston rolls here, but hesitant. Boston gets rest after this game before playing jersey again @ jersey while jersey has a home game vs portland 2m meaning the chances at a backdoor are slim because if boston takes command in the 4th, Jersey may just throw the flag early to rest for 2m. However, Boston is in a funk while Jersey is 17-9 as a dog this yr. No Perkins may hurt with Brook Lopez gaining confidence and Scal guarding him. Thinking Boston 4th Q as if it's close I expect Boston to close the 4th, while if its a blowout, I can see Boston trying to rub the W in since they get a lot of rest after this while Jersey has a game 2m
 
New Orleans @ Dallas
Was hoping for a big bet on Dallas, but now I may not even play it. Was hoping New Orleans would handle NY- they lose str8 up. Was thinking Dallas would get smoked at Denver- they battled back and Dirk played 40 with terry getting 36 minutes. Bleh. obviously playoff revenge for Dallas, but not sure they can pull it off what with New Orleans off a loss, Howard either out or weak, and Dirk and Terry off long nights in the altitude. bleh gonna look a bit more
 
Lakers @ Spurs
Like San Antonio off a loss in which they just watched Orlando shoot 65% from 3. Lakers off a tough game themselves with a thin bench as walton/farmar/vujacic are out leaving essentially a 7 man rotation in a texas-two-step. This also falls into BC's home rest vs b2b. Like SA, maybe 2 units esp with playoff revenge
 
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Sacramento @ Golden State
GS with revenge from november, but I doubt they even remeber that one. This one does fall into home rest vs b2b which I hate, but lean Sac. This is too many pts for GS to be giving a team. Sac, who has been improved with Kmart, just couldn't help Orlando form making 65% 3s on a record night

“We won’t come out like that again,” Martin said. “It’s time to make people accountable because that was just embarrassing to me. We are a joke right now, that’s how people look at us. They just keep launching 3s away. You should be pretty angry about that.”

This shows me that Sac will come out possessed, while GS is even more banged up. Wright/Jackson/Belinelli/Ellis- just a couple rotation player names that won't play on wednesday for GS. GS in the middle of a long homestand, but I doubt it helps them much in the W department. They still don't play D and I think against a determined Sac team. 5 is too many. Lean to Sac
 
Atlanta @ LA Clippers
Only 6 players played over 10 minutes for atlanta yesterday, and that was against the Suns. Atlanta now with 4 losses straight, and the Orlando losses seem to have demoralized them. Although they did outhustle Phoenix today showing maybe they're swagger is back, I'll believe it when it ranslates into Ws. Until then, I think Horford out is making a difference for them. Both teams should be desperate for a win, but I think the Clips are a bit in a better state mentally while Atlanta may be a bit shocked at their recent lack of success.
 
added a couple bets including a teaser. bleh say what you will about teasers being square plays, but I like them and think money can be made by them if used correctly
 
You say Bucks are overvalued in their lines but they keep covering the #. Is it possible you have them undervalued in your power rankings? As for tonight what about your strong belief in the b to b roadie vs. Rested home team. Also think frigid temps in MILW won't help Heat. Happy to have win last night and get out of cold...+ Bucks are completely healthy which has been rare...peace man, just stating points...
 
Good luck SF!
Agree with most if not all your thoughts on the games tonight.
Any thoughts on the Dallas game?
 
with ya on the spurs...gl sf. lots of love for this shitty raptors team...i realize what team they're playing and the road tendencies of that team, but i think that pretty much whenever they're favored, they're getting too much respect
 
The Raptors are far from being the worst team in the league. They should be favored at home by 4-6 pts against at least a half a dozen teams.Mediocre teams can have good spots too? What do you think it would take for the line to be tonight for them to have value?
 
dstang26 said:
You say Bucks are overvalued in their lines but they keep covering the #. Is it possible you have them undervalued in your power rankings? As for tonight what about your strong belief in the b to b roadie vs. Rested home team. Also think frigid temps in MILW won't help Heat. Happy to have win last night and get out of cold...+ Bucks are completely healthy which has been rare...peace man, just stating points...
Click to expand...

Yea, I doubt I'll play Miami because of the spot. When I said b2b roadie vs rested home team I was referring to BetCrime's thread (the stickie in the NBA forum) in which it counts only the home team with 2 days of rest. And regarding my rating undervaluing Milwaukee, that is certainly true. However, with the line where it is right now, it suggests on a neutral court, Milwaukee is without a doubt the better team on the court. I wouldn't say that is true, and I doubt many others would say so either. My ratings put Miami 1.5 pts above Milwaukee. Also, Milwaukee is just getting these lines that are off from mine at home. On the road they're getting similiar lines. I adjust a lot for home/road, but it seems Vegas adjust even more than I do. Thanks for the input
 
divol said:
Good luck SF!
Agree with most if not all your thoughts on the games tonight.
Any thoughts on the Dallas game?
Click to expand...

divol youreally should get back to starting your own threads with your picks. I miss them. On the dallas game, its obviously playoff revenge which would push me away from betting New Orleans in any spot. I consider playoff revenge the biggest revnge as you know the players that lost only think of what they could've should've done to advance and where they messed up. They watch game film all summer and they swear next time it won't happen to them again. Therefore, I would not bet New Orleans. However, I also find it difficult to fade New Orleans off a humiliating loss with an undermanned dallas team on a b2b off a heartbreaker.

hope that helps, BOL tonight divol
 
broadwayjoe said:
with ya on the spurs...gl sf. lots of love for this shitty raptors team...i realize what team they're playing and the road tendencies of that team, but i think that pretty much whenever they're favored, they're getting too much respect
Click to expand...

c'mon broadway. Another poster that seemed to dissapear. You need to start your own threads with your thoughts. I uswed to look forward to seeing who you're on and such.

Reagrding this game, I'm, pretty sure you're being sarcastic with that statement, as every team has to be favored sometimes. I made this line Raps -5, but -4 had a little value. Esp if GOoden is a no go tonight

GL tonight
 
ok I'm heading out for the day, and I updated the card along with a couple vlue ML plays imo. Gonna be back later tonight to possibly add Clippers +points or some 2nd H plays
 
betman4ever said:
Good luck SF !

As it's looking now what are your thoughts on Milwaukee game second half ?
Click to expand...

my fault didn't see on time. I leaned miami, but looked like i wouldve lost and on basis that if its close, I'd expect miami tp pull it out

played this SA/LA 3rd Q under
 
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