Is there value in the Redskins spread?

[Wikeman]

It seems that the line, Redskins +16,5, has been chosen to balance the action.

But is Redskins really a good play? The number seems spot on considering the power ranking differential, even a bit low.

I know that Pats have Colts on deck, but in the similar situation last year, they covered.

I'd feel more comfortable getting 17 with Redskins, but then I'd have to pay juice to the tune of -115 or -120.

Where is the line going, towards 17 or towards 16? It seems the latter, the books are bent on fading the public darling Pats once again.

 

[Wikeman]

The line is moving towards 16 at Pinnacle, and it has not been possible to buy points the whole week there, which is unusual.

After going back and forth, my decision is:

Redskins +17 @ -115, 8 units
Redskins ML @ +1200, 2 units

I think the spread is spot on according to the power rankings, but even New England has to be looking ahead to the game against Colts, who have beaten them the last three times. The Superbowl defeat must really have been painful, the way they choked.

The Cardinals had 200+ more yards of offense compared to the Skins last week, but the Skins still won that game. Skins will almost certainly be outgained again this week-end, but perhaps they can keep it closer than the pure yardage would indicate. Hard to say, because the Pats lately seem to win by a larger point margin than the yardage indicates, so something's got to give...

I definitely think the Redskins will show up for this game, and Campbell's receiver corps is healthy again, which could benefit their offense. Although their offensive production is low, they seem to get some scores in consistently.

Their defense has looked good, and may realistically hold the Patriots around 30 points. Are they able to put up 14 themselves? New England sometimes puts up poor efforts against defensively oriented teams, such as loosing 0 - 21 to the Dolphins last year (which they revenged last week btw).

I won't write much about the Patriots, they have been brilliant, there's no denying that, but they are flying close to the sun right now, spitting in the face of a league based on parity. The game next week alone will say if they are as good as they look, no matter if they win or lose the Redskins game by 10 or 30.

Hopeful prediction:
Patriots 20 - 24 Redskins:cheers:

 

[Throwback420]

I think so

Redskins have a hell of a defense..

Sean Taylor is gonna make Moss his Bitch watch ...

 

[brewer]

i think the line should be 14. so a few pts

 

[BlitzBandit]

I think there is value...

the DVOA's actually have the skins as the #1 defense in the league (#2 against the pass and #4 against the rush).. can't say exactly how much I agree with that, but I will say that they have only given up over 20 points one time this season. So if they somehow end up on the board first, I don't think the Pats would be able to score at least 20 unanswered points on this defense. Maybe against the Brown defense or the Dolphin defense, but not this one. Washington would have to find a way to take long slow drives so their defense stays fresh and can try to put pressure on Brady. The skins pass defense (in the front and backfield) is great and are not the type of defense that gives up big plays like the one NE have been used to. NE better be ready to try and get a running game going, otherwise, if they try to pass all day long, I think the advantage goes to the skins.

The main thing that is on NEs' side is that fact that Washingtons' offense is not too good at all... so against the Pats defense, there should be serious problems, but I think it's all made up with their defense and they will try to stay in it by keeping the score down.

 

[SF_capper]

is there EVER value going against NE?

 

[signalcaller]

I love the Skins tommorow. It will be the best defense the Pats have faced all year. Taylor and Springs will contain Moss. Patriots really dont have a stable running game. If the Skins can put up 14-17 I think it should be an easy cover.
Pats 24
Skins 17

 

[Nugzz]

GL fellas, I'm on the Pats this week, -15.5 one of us will win

 

[Joe Public]

If I had faith in Washington's offense I'd find value here, but I don't.

So, really, that would mean I'd be betting on Washington's defense to keep NE around 20 points. Given that they've put up 34 or more in every game they've been in I just don't see that happening.

Washington might hold 'em to 28 or 27, but I'm not convinced Washington can get over 13 here, not without a defensive TD, so I'll stay away.

 

[Killa]

One does get the feeling that this is the game that New England lets down a tad, and wins by 7 or 10 instead of 20+.

 

[BlitzBandit]

If I had faith in Washington's offense I'd find value here, but I don't.

So, really, that would mean I'd be betting on Washington's defense to keep NE around 20 points. Given that they've put up 34 or more in every game they've been in I just don't see that happening.

Washington might hold 'em to 28 or 27, but I'm not convinced Washington can get over 13 here, not without a defensive TD, so I'll stay away.

well, if they hold em' to 28 or 27 like you said and they get 13 like you said.. then they cover.


on another note, it's true the Pats have put up 34 or more points in every game thus far, but you would need to consider 4 of those 7 games were against the worst defenses in the league..

they have faced 4 of the worst 5 defenses in the league in pts allowed per game. (Miami has been allowing 33 pts per game, the Bengals are allowing 31 pts per game, the Browns are allowing 30 pts per game, and the Jets are allowing 27 per game). The other 3 defenses they faced (Dallas, SD, and Buffalo) are all ranked 15th or worse at pts allowed and only SD from that group is allowing less than 20 (19.8 pts per game)...

so when you consider this is the first time they play a top 5 defense at pts allowed (Washington's ranked 3rd), you would have to think they can actually struggle here.

I honestly have to say I won't be playing this play myself... but there is definitely value here.

It kinda reminds me of the 2000 season when the Vikes were expected to blowout the G-Men in the Championship game since their offense was looking unstoppable... Moss ended up with only 1 catch for 18 yards. Jason Sehorn shut him down all day long and it was the Giants that totally blew out the Vikes... 40-something to 3 or so. Anyway... I expect the same letdown from Moss here. If Brady is going to want to put up enough points to cover this spread, it won't be with Moss or the deep game... he is going to have to work another way around it.... I'm sure they win, but it don't think it will be easy.

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

If Brady is throwing up the same garbage to Moss as he did against the Dolphins, Moss is going to get annihilated by Sean Taylor and LaRon Landry ... it's not going to work. This spread is too high, if only based on the quality of competition each team has faced. If they traded schedules to this point, would the line be the same? I really doubt it. Good luck on your play.

 

[Blue_Chip]

I will not be betting on Belichick this weekend like I have been doing this season, but I can see a cover here by the Patriots. The reason: NE preached about improving their defense all week at press conferences because they gave up so many garbage points to Miami last week. So if NE allows only 10 pts, then getting their customary 34-38 pts will equal a cover. I agree Brady threw some crap passes last week to Moss, but I do not think the WAS defense will be the one to slow the Patriots offense down.

 

[brewer]

i like the under best

 

[boomer23us]

no way the skins barely hung with the packers

:36_11_6:

It seems that the line, Redskins +16,5, has been chosen to balance the action.

But is Redskins really a good play? The number seems spot on considering the power ranking differential, even a bit low.

I know that Pats have Colts on deck, but in the similar situation last year, they covered.

I'd feel more comfortable getting 17 with Redskins, but then I'd have to pay juice to the tune of -115 or -120.

Where is the line going, towards 17 or towards 16? It seems the latter, the books are bent on fading the public darling Pats once again.

 

[boomer23us]

here's my picks for the week

cleve -3
lions +6
colts -7
t.b -4
g-men/miami under 48
n.e. -17
bills +3
G.B. +3

and my three teamer
pitts -4
eagles - 1 1/2
saints -3

read boys this are the picks

 

[GrandPa]

The value is going to be on whichever team cashes ATS.

 

[joebram]

I guess it all depends on if big bad Bill has any points to prove this week. One of these days he's gonna leave Brady in against the wrong team. Good thing for them Rodney Harrison is on their side...

 

[Seabass]

Boomer, you are deranged if you think the Skins barely hung with the Packers. They dominated the game and without a bad fumble for a TD late would have won it. Brett Favre even said he was shocked GB escaped it with a win.

Don't spew misinformation.

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

Thank you Seabass ... where were you when I was getting pummeled for saying the Skins threw that game away?

 

[Seabass]

Thank you Seabass ... where were you when I was getting pummeled for saying the Skins threw that game away?

Haha who knows...I generally just stick to the ingames on the NFL forum...

 

[Capt. Slap]

Mimir, I think you might get this today...ML included (and +24 unit profit would be )

 

[Capt. Slap]

I do think the Redskins will have the lead at halftime

 

[Wikeman]

This is not working out to say the least, 24-0 Pats at HT.

Redskins have played a very bad half, fumble upon fumble. The worst half they've played in the season? Not lucky:down2:

 

[RambleOn]

Take Pats 2nd H. Easy money.

 

[Das Kapital]

I do think the Redskins will have the lead at halftime

smoke much crack lately?:36_11_6:

 

[C-Gold]

The Value in the Redskins spread was New England -17.

Joe Gibbs still running screen passes, and Jason Campbell still playing like shit...

1 pick
2 fumbles
0 touchdowns, 0 value for his offense
lots of headaches for his coach.

Maybe old man gibbs will let him throw a couple passes downfield and hope they don't get picked again?

 

[Wikeman]

Hi C-Gold, didn't see you recommending that NE -17 play earlier?

Anyway, hope your gameday is good.

 

[C-Gold]

Hahahha Redskins staple of their offense is the screen pass....

Redskins series down 31-0...

1st down: Campbell screen pass to ARE
2nd down: Portis runs for a loss of 5 yards
3rd down: Campbell fumbles and the Pats return it for a touchdown...

38-0

all is quiet in redskins nation

 

[C-Gold]

Jason Campbell got bitched by Mike Vrabel

Redskins have a historically bad loss
Quiet redskins fans hang their heads in shame
:36_11_6:

 

[Throwback420]

Jason Campbell got bitched by Mike Vrabel

Redskins have a historically bad loss
Quiet redskins fans hang their heads in shame
:36_11_6:

 

[Blue_Chip]

I will not be betting on Belichick this weekend like I have been doing this season, but I can see a cover here by the Patriots. The reason: NE preached about improving their defense all week at press conferences because they gave up so many garbage points to Miami last week. So if NE allows only 10 pts, then getting their customary 34-38 pts will equal a cover. I agree Brady threw some crap passes last week to Moss, but I do not think the WAS defense will be the one to slow the Patriots offense down.

I should have listened to myself.