Is the NFL's Playoff Seeding System Outdated??

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
These past two seasons have really highlighted how ridiculous (in my opinion) the playoff seeding system is in the NFL.

Listen, I am not advocating for taking division champions out of the mix, but we need to seed these teams according to the number of wins.

The bottom line, we're never going to have fair schedules. So much is based on the previous season. We're also not going to have even divisions. All that being said, we can't keep punishing teams for winning 11+ games and going on the road for a playoff game.

Last year, the NFC was a prime example. Yes, I know the NFC North was extreme last season, but we are seeing more and more of one division being heavy.

Green Bay won 11 games and was relegated to a 7 seed -- facing, on the road, the eventual SB Champs! Meanwhile, two teams with worse records hosted playoff games!

Minnesota won 14 games and went on the road to face a 10-win team. Ridiculous.

I know some want to reward division winners -- but I think a playoff spot in itself is the reward. The thing about GB and MIN last season is that they won that many games in superior divisions to the LAR and TB teams that hosted playoff games. There are more examples from last year, but that gives us the gist.

This season is lining up similarly...

Tampa Bay or Carolina is going to host a playoff game with around 9 wins vs a team that has double-digit wins. Make it make sense!

The NFC West is pretty strong, record-wise this year. Unless the Niners lose the rest of their games, this division will have three teams in the playoffs. There is a good chance that these teams will have 3 of the 4 best records in the conference -- YET -- two of them will be heading on the road WC weekend.

Back to the AFC, the Chargers or Bills will likely be heading on the road to face the AFC North winner. That stings, especially for a Chargers team heading East to potential inclement weather when they have the better record. This will be the 2nd year in a row they have been in this position.

So what do you think?

Am I way off-base here?

Do we have alternative solutions?

Is this as simple as awarding playoff spots to the 4 division champs and 3 best records after that? Then seeding them right down the line via record (and tiebreakers)...
 
NFL Strength of Victory Rankings for the current playoff teams

AFC
1 Houston .460
2 Buffalo .450
3 Pittsburgh .429
4 Jacksonville .429
5 Chargers .421
6 Denver .351
7 New England .344

NFL
1 Rams .513
2 Philly .460
3 Tampa .459
4 Green Bay .421
5 Seattle .403
6 San Fran .364
7 Chicago .346

NFL Strength of Schedule for the current playoff teams

AFC
1 Houston .556
2 Pittsburgh .523
3 Jacksonville .485
4 Buffalo .480
5 Chargers .423
6 Denver .393
7 New England .372

NFL
1 Rams .536
2 Tampa .526
3 Philly .503
4 Green Bay .462
5 Seattle .459
6 San Fran .449
7 Chicago .406

If there is going to be a modification to the seedings based on overall record then I would propose that the strength of the opposition faced and beaten should be taken into account in some capacity. The road for Denver, New England, Chicago and San Francisco has been particularly soft.
 
NFL Strength of Victory Rankings for the current playoff teams

AFC
1 Houston .460
2 Buffalo .450
3 Pittsburgh .429
4 Jacksonville .429
5 Chargers .421
6 Denver .351
7 New England .344

NFL
1 Rams .513
2 Philly .460
3 Tampa .459
4 Green Bay .421
5 Seattle .403
6 San Fran .364
7 Chicago .346

NFL Strength of Schedule for the current playoff teams

AFC
1 Houston .556
2 Pittsburgh .523
3 Jacksonville .485
4 Buffalo .480
5 Chargers .423
6 Denver .393
7 New England .372

NFL
1 Rams .536
2 Tampa .526
3 Philly .503
4 Green Bay .462
5 Seattle .459
6 San Fran .449
7 Chicago .406

If there is going to be a modification to the seedings based on overall record then I would propose that the strength of the opposition faced and beaten should be taken into account in some capacity. The road for Denver, New England, Chicago and San Francisco has been particularly soft.
Absolutely.

The 4th place schedules are the reason we usually have around 50% new playoff teams each year.

Yeah, some sort of formula to select the seeding would be something. Maybe a committee like CFB and CBB :)
 
Absolutely.

The 4th place schedules are the reason we usually have around 50% new playoff teams each year.

Yeah, some sort of formula to select the seeding would be something. Maybe a committee like CFB and CBB :)
I would not mind a committee for seeding purposes as long as they are not involved in the selection.

Just for fun, I took each team's Win % and added the average of their SOV and SOS. Here is how they rank:

AFC
1 Denver 1.229
2 Buffalo 1.179
3 Jacksonville 1.171
4 Houston 1.151
5 New England 1.144
6 LA Chargers 1.136
7 Pittsburgh 1.047

NFC
1 Rams 1.310
2 Seattle 1.217
3 Philly 1.124
4 San Fran 1.1208
5 Green Bay 1.1201
6 Chicago 1.090
7 Tampa 0.993

Pats get dinged hard, as do the NFC North teams. Pitt and Tampa no surprise that they would be seventh with their records. Bills #2 is a surprise. Matchups would be:

Pitt at Buffalo
Chargers at Jax
NE at Houston
Tampa at Seattle
Chicago at Philly
Green Bay at San Fran

NE at Houston doesn't seem right to me. I would put in a rider stating if the lower seed is a division winner with a better season record, then the division winner gets the home game. That gives us:

Pitt 7 at Buffalo 2
Chargers 6 at Jax 3
Houston 4 at New England 5

Tampa 7 at Seattle 2
Chicago 6 at Philly 3
Green Bay 5 at San Fran 4

Based on overall quality of work that looks fair to me.

Now, let's say Buffalo, Chargers and New England all win. I keep applying the rider:

Chargers 6 at Denver 1
Buffalo 2 at New England 5 - This would be especially justified since they're in the same division.
 
I would not mind a committee for seeding purposes as long as they are not involved in the selection.

Just for fun, I took each team's Win % and added the average of their SOV and SOS. Here is how they rank:

AFC
1 Denver 1.229
2 Buffalo 1.179
3 Jacksonville 1.171
4 Houston 1.151
5 New England 1.144
6 LA Chargers 1.136
7 Pittsburgh 1.047

NFC
1 Rams 1.310
2 Seattle 1.217
3 Philly 1.124
4 San Fran 1.1208
5 Green Bay 1.1201
6 Chicago 1.090
7 Tampa 0.993

Pats get dinged hard, as do the NFC North teams. Pitt and Tampa no surprise that they would be seventh with their records. Bills #2 is a surprise. Matchups would be:

Pitt at Buffalo
Chargers at Jax
NE at Houston
Tampa at Seattle
Chicago at Philly
Green Bay at San Fran

NE at Houston doesn't seem right to me. I would put in a rider stating if the lower seed is a division winner with a better season record, then the division winner gets the home game. That gives us:

Pitt 7 at Buffalo 2
Chargers 6 at Jax 3
Houston 4 at New England 5

Tampa 7 at Seattle 2
Chicago 6 at Philly 3
Green Bay 5 at San Fran 4

Based on overall quality of work that looks fair to me.

Now, let's say Buffalo, Chargers and New England all win. I keep applying the rider:

Chargers 6 at Denver 1
Buffalo 2 at New England 5 - This would be especially justified since they're in the same division.



Awesome read brother

Really appreciate this post and the one above.
 
One worry. So much capping is done division vs division, division vs non-division. So many examples. Like how Chargers started the year with three straight division matchups. Or how Washington didn't show up to Minnesota but kicked division ass vs Giants last week. Whatever the system, we need regular season division games to stay of paramount importance somehow; and keep individual divisions focused on beating each other first, and everybody else later.

Remember when Texans risked the draft pick on Mario Williams #1 strictly just so they could beat Peyton? Or how Belichick never showed up to road games in Miami because he'd rather risk the road loss and beat them at home for the tiebreaker instead? I think division games give us a huge edge in capping regular season games.

*idk if this is even a good arguement for the thread I just like talkin' divisions! 😀
 
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