Is parity sort of . . . well, over?

[Joe Public]

You know, I saw ATP post this today and it's so odd, because I was just thinking something similar this morning.

Are we returning to how the NFL was right before the divisions were realigned, or maybe going back even a little bit further, where there are really only about four good teams out there and where they sort of dominate everybody else?

Remember when they realigned the divisions, for the most part you got some really good competitive balance. There were a couple, the AFC South, for example, and the NFC South at the time, who really only had one good team, but with the others they were all pretty much like the AFC North is right now. No real juggernaut, but three strong teams against each other and one sort of weak sister (albeit not as weak as perhaps the Browns are now).

I thought of this actually not so much based on yesterday, but based on next week's lines.

Yesterday we had a lot of sixes. More than I remember seeing in a couple of years, actually. We had road sixes for crying out loud.

And now, this week, those sixes have become 9.5s and 10s.

And I'm not sure those lines are even high enough in some cases.

I look at the divisions out there, and maybe I'm alone, but I don't know if I see parity working as it was intended. I see one good team per division, if that, save the AFC North which could have two-ish.

Thoughts?

 

[TroyStacks]

i agree adn its bc these hig h powered offenses now have respectable defenses look at your teams like ne and indy for example or denver and sd, hell why not NO minus week 1 haha

 

[Fondybadger]

I think more teams are being smarter with their money and locking up their best players with long term deals. Teams that draft well and have good GM's will continue to pull away from the Millen led teams of the world.

 

[B.A.R.]

I agree...

The NFL this year IMO is below average.

You have your top tier:

NE
INDY
SD

Your next tier:

CHI
Philly
NO

and thats about it..

you have great offenses with poor defenses:

Dallas
NY
DET
Potentially Zona-SF

Muddling Teams:

SEA
PITT
CAR
CINCY
BALT

Horrible teams:

KC
OAK
CLE

Boring teams:

Wash
Mia
ATL
Minny
TB
Buff

 

[Joe Public]

I might mix up some of your 'great offense/bad defense' teams with some of the 'muddling' teams, but on the whole I agree with where you're going.

What I wonder is if we get too preoccupied breaking it out this way, one big whole list (oh, SD will kill the Falcons), rather than breaking it up the way it is in reality (divisionally) and vis a vis the schedule.

That may seem like not a big deal, but that's how it actually works in week to week play.

Teams that play in stronger divisions, in stronger conferences, should probably be weighted accordingly.

Hence the reason if you can get a New England or a San Diego at home vs. an NFC team you probably want to be willing to lay more than you would even if it's like Chicago where they don't seem to be that far off in their tier slots.

Again, it may seem simple, but I just think that if the baseline assumption is correct, that there are a handful of teams that are just that much better than others, correctly identifying the right situations to take advantage of that just gives us a better chance to make money.

Also, beyond that, I think Fondy's right and what you're seeing is that teams that are run well are building along the lines first, then trying to draft or sign skill players, locking them up to long term deals, and f**king the other teams who are run by less savvy guys trying to buy a winner (Washington) or trying to draft home run hitter after home run hitter (Detroit).

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Week 1 had a lot of conservative lines b/c of the uncertainty of opening week. The lines should get more 'real' now.

But we still have an undervalued line left for Monday Night. The Ravens shouldn't be a dog in this game.

 

[AgainstThePublic]

I think more teams are being smarter with their money and locking up their best players with long term deals. Teams that draft well and have good GM's will continue to pull away from the Millen led teams of the world.

Very true. IMO NE is the best. Unreal how their management and Belichick bring together great teams every year with the salary cap issues and free agency.

 

[brewer]

get chicago out of that 2nd tier. we just lost mike brown and dusty for season. without mike brown last year teams could run on us a lot more. it showed it in the 2nd half after he went out vs SD. turner and LT started to get those 6-8 yard gains. when before they could get 2.

bears be lucky to go 9-7.

also, greg olsen didnt play so the chargers stacked teh box, the line played like shit, rex got hit as hard as i ever seen a qb hit from his blind side and didnt fumble. was amazed at that. bernard berrian cant quit on his good damn route like a bitch. also, hester stop calling for a fair catch. and turner got him the ball once on offense. wait, you did. how bout you get it to him more than once!!

what the hell is going on out there?

 

[Joe Public]

I saw that Mike Brown thing, Brewer. What a nightmare for them.

I feel horrible for that guy.

 

[brewer]

they interviewed him after the game about it and he started crying. then the reporter put his arm around him. i knew right then he was never gonna play for the bears again. hes the heart and soul of our d. who was leading the bears pregame ... mike brown was.

terrible day yesterday for me.

 

[Joe Public]

Man, that's brutal. That was my first thought when I saw he was done for the year was that he might never play again.

They say Alex Brown might be lost, too.

Next week should be somewhat easy, but suddenly the schedule just got a lot harder for the Bears.

 

[PURPLE & GOLD]

WOW wtf happened.
I was just thinking how great the defense looked in the first half and he was everywhere on the field or so I thought.

Injury?

 

[ztoady]

B.A.R.

Being a Broncos fan --- I feel compelled to say that you left us out of the mix.

I put them squarely in the 2nd tier - espically after seeing the offense and defense yesterday.

However, they have to convert field goal (attempts) into TD's

 

[YesSir]

it is because people are video taping signs....

 

[brewer]

people steal signs in mlb. i dont see how this is different.

 

[EDizzle]

I see some over-reaction to the first week of play in here.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Indy's D still sucks, and you will see that sunday when Tennessee runs all over them.

 

[YesSir]

people steal signs in mlb. i dont see how this is different.

lol i was joking but it is completely different IMO

 

[Joe Public]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Indy's D still sucks, and you will see that sunday when Tennessee runs all over them.

I didn't see the Jax/Tenn game, does Tenn's running game really look that good?

 

[EDizzle]

Well they ran alllllll over jacksonville, gaining 5.8 yards an atempt. And Tenn better have a strong running game because I think VY is a bigger threat to run than beat you with the deep pass (over 20 yards.)

Despite hold the Saint offense to 3 points, I still think Indys defense is vunerable. Even though the TOP was pretty even in that game, it just looked like NO was sloppy and wasnt executing.

Indy's D is weak up the middle and their corners are suspect. And all this hype over Bob Sanders is just crazy to me. Everyone makes it seem like he is Jesus Christ himself. He hasnt done shit over his career...hasnt even completed a whole season.

I'm not saying Tennessee wins this game, but I think they give them a run for their money.

 

[Joe Public]

I agree that pretty much all of Indy's defense is suspect, but the only reason VY isn't a threat with the deep ball, in my opinion, is because he lacks the receivers and the knowledge of the coverages. Once he has a better sense of pro defenses, say, next year, I think he'll throw the deep ball just fine.

Now, whether they ever give him someone to throw to is another story.

But I agree, he's much more of a threat to burn you for 20 on the ground than 50 in the air.

Oh, and you're not going to like this, but I woke up with a weird feeling today that Miami beats Dallas this weekend.

 

[Grok]

The AFC is dominant imo, the top four teams (PIT, NE, SD and INDY) will roll in the superbowl against any NFC opponent. I feel that the top team in the NFC this year is SEA, the most balanced in the conference, with DAL CHI and NO all having serious flaws in their game. I fully expect, injuries of course being the X factor, that we will see NE trounce SEA in Superbowl XLII this year.