Indiana vs. Ohio State: NCAAF Week 12 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Tuesday, November 17, 2020 at noon ET (FOX) at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio
Do Indiana’s Wins Prove Anything?
Last year, Ohio State dominated Indiana 51-10, easily covering the spread posted by College Football Oddsmakers. What’s different this year? Do we see something in the Hoosiers that may lead us to expect a different result this year? Are the Hoosiers truly better than they were last year?
One obvious difference is Indiana’s win-loss record and ranking. This year, the Hoosiers are 4-0 and ranked ninth.
But is that impressive? The Hoosiers beat a Penn State squad that is still winless.
As evidenced by its deterioration in recruiting talent (as measured by 247sports) and its injuries or opt-outs of key stars at running back and linebacker, Penn State is a significantly less impressive win.
Indiana also beat a Michigan squad that, at 1-2 with a blowout loss to Wisconsin and a loss at home to massive underdog Michigan State, is turning out to be much weaker than anybody could have expected.
Indiana’s other two wins came against anticipated bottom-feeders Rutgers and Michigan State, both of which are held back by inept quarterbacking among other problems.
So we haven’t really learned as much as some may think about this year’s Hoosiers simply because they haven’t been tested on the field. They have beaten big names, but not good teams.
What Has Changed For Ohio State?
One may talk about personnel changes — on both teams — and I will get into their significance shortly.
But one crucial difference between last year’s game and this year’s is its meaning for Ohio State.
The Buckeyes could typically overlook the Hoosiers.
They cannot overlook this year’s Hoosiers because this game will likely be the best if not the only opportunity for Ohio State to meaningfully flex its muscles for the playoff committee.
You have to remember that this is a shortened season where the Buckeyes will not play as many games. Typically, they could rely on Penn State and Michigan being two good-looking wins.
Yet it has turned out that beating 0-4 Penn State and 1-2 Michigan isn’t impressive.
Whether you think that the Hoosiers are undeserving of their top-10 ranking or not, the fact is that the Hoosiers are ranked top-10.
In this game, Ohio State is going to want to give its best. With a big win against a top-10 opponent, the Buckeyes will hope to state their case for the playoffs.
Also keep in mind that the Buckeyes have had extra time to prepare since their last scheduled game was canceled.
Ohio State Offense vs. Indiana Defense
In terms of pass protection, Ohio State ranks about the same as it did last year.
The Buckeyes returned three starters on its offensive line and replace the two departed starters with two former five-star recruits.
So the talent that kept quarterback Justin Fields upright in last year’s game is still there.
For Indiana, the Hoosiers miss a defensive end in Allen Stallings who got one of the team’s two sacks in last year’s contest.
So the interior is very much what the Hoosiers will point to as their strength on the defensive line.
Ohio State has so many counters to a strong interior defensive line.
One type of play that it likes to run is the fake half-back run up the middle. Fields will get the Hoosier defense to crash the middle and then break contain outside the tackles where the Hoosiers are at their weakest.
He’ll also hand the ball outside the tackles, perhaps do a play-action fake and then throw on the move.
But of course, Fields will normally have time to do what he likes to do, to stand in the pocket and deliver.
With just one sack returning from last year’s contest, the Hoosier defensive line will struggle to apply pressure against a Buckeye offensive line that has underachieved so far but is still extremely good.
In a uniquely meaningful game like this one, i’m expecting the Buckeye pass protection and run-blocking to show up especially to shore up the inside.
With Fields having time to throw whether he stands in the pocket or utilizes his mobility, it doesn’t really matter how good the Hoosier secondary is.
It will be hard for any secondary to spend too much time trying to cover Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave.
Wilson is a 2020 member of the Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award Watch List, which honors the top offensive player with some relationship to the state of Texas.
Olave is a member of the 2020 Biletnikoff Award Watch List, which goes to the nation’s top wide receiver.
Fields is a Heisman candidate with his ridiculous accuracy on difficult throws. Right now, he has as many passing touchdowns as he does incompletions.
When Fields doesn’t run, Master Teague likely will be running. He accrued 106 yards on only 10 carries in last year’s contest.
Indiana Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
Indiana does not have big-play potential on the ground. Currently, the Hoosiers rank 115th in averaging 3.0 YPC.
In terms of run defense, Ohio State got off to a shaky start because it struggled, per usual, with running quarterbacks the likes of which Nebraska is uniquely able to offer.
The Buckeyes show many new faces in their defensive line whose newness was clearly on display in that season opener against the Cornhuskers.
Expect to see, though, the Buckeye run defense that held Penn State to 1.6 YPC on 27 rushing attempts. The Nittany Lions are averaging 3.8 YPC despite that debacle.
The defensive line is growing, the linebackers help the run defense grow with their veteran leadership, and the defense is very much the same with four returning defensive coaches.
Ohio State still likes to utilize its single-high safety look, which helps secure gaps that opposing run-blockers want to create, only with more wrinkles as some defensive coaches were only in their first season at Ohio State last year.
So it will come down to the arm of Michael Penix Jr. He has a big arm. But he’s not the most accurate passer. He barely completes 60 percent of his passes while averaging only 7.1 YPA and he’s thrown three interceptions in four games.
His pass protection looks stronger than it did in the opener against Penn State where he was sacked three times.
But again, the Hoosiers have faced three teams that rank outside the top 75 nationally in sack rate. Ohio State ranks 24th in the category.
The Buckeyes have thrived in their pass rush against multiple offensive lines that got to enjoy the benefit of returning very significant starting experience.
What we’re seeing is their talent coming to fruition.
In the interior, Ohio State is really strong with the likes of Tommy Togiai, who has three sacks despite regularly facing double-teams and otherwise being restricted positionally in the interior.
On the outside, Zach Harrison is an extremely well-respected, former five-star recruiting prospect who is second on the team in sacks.
There is plenty of depth and talent beyond those two to make up for the much talked-about loss of Chase Young.
So Penix will not have the same time to throw. He relies primarily on wide receiver Ty Fryfogle, who easily leads Hoosier receivers in yards and touchdowns.
Fryfogle will have to contend with former All-Big Ten third-teamer Shaun Wade. While Wade has had bumps transitioning from covering the slot to covering the outside, he’s improved his technique through experience in games and practice.
The Verdict
Ohio State will come prepared to dominate. It will score plenty behind a balanced offense with abundant time to throw and lanes to run through.
It will flex a burgeoning pass rush and secondary and a linebacking crew that Indiana lacks the personnel to challenge in coverage. Penix will be asked to do too much.
I also love the fact that Buckeye players were yelled at by their coaches for slacking off after leading Rutgers 35-3 in their last game. They will come back with a complete effort on Saturday.
Best Bet: Buckeyes -20 at -110 with Bookmaker
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Tuesday, November 17, 2020 at noon ET (FOX) at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio
Do Indiana’s Wins Prove Anything?
Last year, Ohio State dominated Indiana 51-10, easily covering the spread posted by College Football Oddsmakers. What’s different this year? Do we see something in the Hoosiers that may lead us to expect a different result this year? Are the Hoosiers truly better than they were last year?
One obvious difference is Indiana’s win-loss record and ranking. This year, the Hoosiers are 4-0 and ranked ninth.
But is that impressive? The Hoosiers beat a Penn State squad that is still winless.
As evidenced by its deterioration in recruiting talent (as measured by 247sports) and its injuries or opt-outs of key stars at running back and linebacker, Penn State is a significantly less impressive win.
Indiana also beat a Michigan squad that, at 1-2 with a blowout loss to Wisconsin and a loss at home to massive underdog Michigan State, is turning out to be much weaker than anybody could have expected.
Indiana’s other two wins came against anticipated bottom-feeders Rutgers and Michigan State, both of which are held back by inept quarterbacking among other problems.
So we haven’t really learned as much as some may think about this year’s Hoosiers simply because they haven’t been tested on the field. They have beaten big names, but not good teams.
What Has Changed For Ohio State?
One may talk about personnel changes — on both teams — and I will get into their significance shortly.
But one crucial difference between last year’s game and this year’s is its meaning for Ohio State.
The Buckeyes could typically overlook the Hoosiers.
They cannot overlook this year’s Hoosiers because this game will likely be the best if not the only opportunity for Ohio State to meaningfully flex its muscles for the playoff committee.
You have to remember that this is a shortened season where the Buckeyes will not play as many games. Typically, they could rely on Penn State and Michigan being two good-looking wins.
Yet it has turned out that beating 0-4 Penn State and 1-2 Michigan isn’t impressive.
Whether you think that the Hoosiers are undeserving of their top-10 ranking or not, the fact is that the Hoosiers are ranked top-10.
In this game, Ohio State is going to want to give its best. With a big win against a top-10 opponent, the Buckeyes will hope to state their case for the playoffs.
Also keep in mind that the Buckeyes have had extra time to prepare since their last scheduled game was canceled.
Ohio State Offense vs. Indiana Defense
In terms of pass protection, Ohio State ranks about the same as it did last year.
The Buckeyes returned three starters on its offensive line and replace the two departed starters with two former five-star recruits.
So the talent that kept quarterback Justin Fields upright in last year’s game is still there.
For Indiana, the Hoosiers miss a defensive end in Allen Stallings who got one of the team’s two sacks in last year’s contest.
So the interior is very much what the Hoosiers will point to as their strength on the defensive line.
Ohio State has so many counters to a strong interior defensive line.
One type of play that it likes to run is the fake half-back run up the middle. Fields will get the Hoosier defense to crash the middle and then break contain outside the tackles where the Hoosiers are at their weakest.
He’ll also hand the ball outside the tackles, perhaps do a play-action fake and then throw on the move.
But of course, Fields will normally have time to do what he likes to do, to stand in the pocket and deliver.
With just one sack returning from last year’s contest, the Hoosier defensive line will struggle to apply pressure against a Buckeye offensive line that has underachieved so far but is still extremely good.
In a uniquely meaningful game like this one, i’m expecting the Buckeye pass protection and run-blocking to show up especially to shore up the inside.
With Fields having time to throw whether he stands in the pocket or utilizes his mobility, it doesn’t really matter how good the Hoosier secondary is.
It will be hard for any secondary to spend too much time trying to cover Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave.
Wilson is a 2020 member of the Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award Watch List, which honors the top offensive player with some relationship to the state of Texas.
Olave is a member of the 2020 Biletnikoff Award Watch List, which goes to the nation’s top wide receiver.
Fields is a Heisman candidate with his ridiculous accuracy on difficult throws. Right now, he has as many passing touchdowns as he does incompletions.
When Fields doesn’t run, Master Teague likely will be running. He accrued 106 yards on only 10 carries in last year’s contest.
Indiana Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
Indiana does not have big-play potential on the ground. Currently, the Hoosiers rank 115th in averaging 3.0 YPC.
In terms of run defense, Ohio State got off to a shaky start because it struggled, per usual, with running quarterbacks the likes of which Nebraska is uniquely able to offer.
The Buckeyes show many new faces in their defensive line whose newness was clearly on display in that season opener against the Cornhuskers.
Expect to see, though, the Buckeye run defense that held Penn State to 1.6 YPC on 27 rushing attempts. The Nittany Lions are averaging 3.8 YPC despite that debacle.
The defensive line is growing, the linebackers help the run defense grow with their veteran leadership, and the defense is very much the same with four returning defensive coaches.
Ohio State still likes to utilize its single-high safety look, which helps secure gaps that opposing run-blockers want to create, only with more wrinkles as some defensive coaches were only in their first season at Ohio State last year.
So it will come down to the arm of Michael Penix Jr. He has a big arm. But he’s not the most accurate passer. He barely completes 60 percent of his passes while averaging only 7.1 YPA and he’s thrown three interceptions in four games.
His pass protection looks stronger than it did in the opener against Penn State where he was sacked three times.
But again, the Hoosiers have faced three teams that rank outside the top 75 nationally in sack rate. Ohio State ranks 24th in the category.
The Buckeyes have thrived in their pass rush against multiple offensive lines that got to enjoy the benefit of returning very significant starting experience.
What we’re seeing is their talent coming to fruition.
In the interior, Ohio State is really strong with the likes of Tommy Togiai, who has three sacks despite regularly facing double-teams and otherwise being restricted positionally in the interior.
On the outside, Zach Harrison is an extremely well-respected, former five-star recruiting prospect who is second on the team in sacks.
There is plenty of depth and talent beyond those two to make up for the much talked-about loss of Chase Young.
So Penix will not have the same time to throw. He relies primarily on wide receiver Ty Fryfogle, who easily leads Hoosier receivers in yards and touchdowns.
Fryfogle will have to contend with former All-Big Ten third-teamer Shaun Wade. While Wade has had bumps transitioning from covering the slot to covering the outside, he’s improved his technique through experience in games and practice.
The Verdict
Ohio State will come prepared to dominate. It will score plenty behind a balanced offense with abundant time to throw and lanes to run through.
It will flex a burgeoning pass rush and secondary and a linebacking crew that Indiana lacks the personnel to challenge in coverage. Penix will be asked to do too much.
I also love the fact that Buckeye players were yelled at by their coaches for slacking off after leading Rutgers 35-3 in their last game. They will come back with a complete effort on Saturday.
Best Bet: Buckeyes -20 at -110 with Bookmaker
