If Mississippi and Louisville were playing in Week One

P

pstone

Pretty much a regular
on a true neutral field, what would your line be? I'm going to wait for a few responses before posting mine. Paul
 
Carolina Guy:
I'll give the cliff's notes version. I handicap sports, specializing in college football. I try to win. My adversary is the linemaker who develops a line based on his perception of the public's collective perception of the involved teams. Many handicappers _ especially many of the more successful ones _ develop power ratings _ some spending hours upon hours in massaging and fine tuning their PRs. They then use those PRs as one of the tools to develop their own pointspread on a game, comparing their spread to the earliest opening number and, in some cases, attacking perceived weaknesses in the linemaker's number.
Occasionally, a capper may utilize a forum such as this one to pose questions about a hypothetical matchup in an effort to gain insight to the public's collective perception of the included teams. Although the sample size is relatively small, I find many persons on these forums to have above-average knowledge (Some can make a number, some have no idea), so I give more credence to the opinion of five persons here than, say, five persons with their cracks exposed turning in a zillion parlay cards at the LVH Superbook at 8:55 a.m. on a fall Saturday morning. My exercise in this case essentially is to measure the public's pulse relating to a Louisville team which is gaining much preseason attention. I have posed this same scenario at three other forums. I suspected the forum responders would have Louisville at least somewhat overvalued. My suspicions have been validated. IMO, the game should be lined anywhere from a Pick to Mississippi favored by between 1-to-2.5 points. The linemaker doesn't put much stock in a bowl victory over a disinterested opponent, but rather looks more closely at the 2012 full body of work and a very average major college defense.
So, much like why does the NFL care how many times a strongman can bench press 225 pounds (After all, he's not going to be bench pressing while taking on a 325-pound offensive lineman), I do exercises to prepare my arsenal for the upcoming season.

Thanks for responding and good luck this season,
Paul
 
The number I gave you (-3) is the number I think oddsmakers would release for such a match up. If you want my personal opinion I would rank Ole Miss slightly higher than Louisville in a power ranking.
 
pstone said:
Carolina Guy:
I'll give the cliff's notes version. I handicap sports, specializing in college football. I try to win. My adversary is the linemaker who develops a line based on his perception of the public's collective perception of the involved teams. Many handicappers _ especially many of the more successful ones _ develop power ratings _ some spending hours upon hours in massaging and fine tuning their PRs. They then use those PRs as one of the tools to develop their own pointspread on a game, comparing their spread to the earliest opening number and, in some cases, attacking perceived weaknesses in the linemaker's number.
Occasionally, a capper may utilize a forum such as this one to pose questions about a hypothetical matchup in an effort to gain insight to the public's collective perception of the included teams. Although the sample size is relatively small, I find many persons on these forums to have above-average knowledge (Some can make a number, some have no idea), so I give more credence to the opinion of five persons here than, say, five persons with their cracks exposed turning in a zillion parlay cards at the LVH Superbook at 8:55 a.m. on a fall Saturday morning. My exercise in this case essentially is to measure the public's pulse relating to a Louisville team which is gaining much preseason attention. I have posed this same scenario at three other forums. I suspected the forum responders would have Louisville at least somewhat overvalued. My suspicions have been validated. IMO, the game should be lined anywhere from a Pick to Mississippi favored by between 1-to-2.5 points. The linemaker doesn't put much stock in a bowl victory over a disinterested opponent, but rather looks more closely at the 2012 full body of work and a very average major college defense.
So, much like why does the NFL care how many times a strongman can bench press 225 pounds (After all, he's not going to be bench pressing while taking on a 325-pound offensive lineman), I do exercises to prepare my arsenal for the upcoming season.

Thanks for responding and good luck this season,
Paul
Click to expand...

:clapping:

All this needed was the sarcasm font and it would have been perfect. 9.9/10 though.
 
pstone said:
Carolina Guy:
I'll give the cliff's notes version. I handicap sports, specializing in college football. I try to win. My adversary is the linemaker who develops a line based on his perception of the public's collective perception of the involved teams. Many handicappers _ especially many of the more successful ones _ develop power ratings _ some spending hours upon hours in massaging and fine tuning their PRs. They then use those PRs as one of the tools to develop their own pointspread on a game, comparing their spread to the earliest opening number and, in some cases, attacking perceived weaknesses in the linemaker's number.
Occasionally, a capper may utilize a forum such as this one to pose questions about a hypothetical matchup in an effort to gain insight to the public's collective perception of the included teams. Although the sample size is relatively small, I find many persons on these forums to have above-average knowledge (Some can make a number, some have no idea), so I give more credence to the opinion of five persons here than, say, five persons with their cracks exposed turning in a zillion parlay cards at the LVH Superbook at 8:55 a.m. on a fall Saturday morning. My exercise in this case essentially is to measure the public's pulse relating to a Louisville team which is gaining much preseason attention. I have posed this same scenario at three other forums. I suspected the forum responders would have Louisville at least somewhat overvalued. My suspicions have been validated. IMO, the game should be lined anywhere from a Pick to Mississippi favored by between 1-to-2.5 points. The linemaker doesn't put much stock in a bowl victory over a disinterested opponent, but rather looks more closely at the 2012 full body of work and a very average major college defense.
So, much like why does the NFL care how many times a strongman can bench press 225 pounds (After all, he's not going to be bench pressing while taking on a 325-pound offensive lineman), I do exercises to prepare my arsenal for the upcoming season.

Thanks for responding and good luck this season,
Paul
Click to expand...

Not to say I disagree with your number, but isn't there a possibility folks are doing this with Ole Miss?
 
Linde:
Sure, the linemaker could be overvaluing Ole Miss. In this exercise, the Rebels were merely the team I used to get an idea of where people were gauging Louisville. My tested theory is whether people are overvaluing Louisville. I think they clearly are. Their slate of 2013 opponents, however, unfortunately doesn't present many opportunities to expose any errors (In all fairness to Louisville, it did beat Southern Miss by 4 points last season and only lost to Syracuse by 19 points on the road late in the season. Also, the Cardinals took UConn to triple OT at home before losing that one as well).
Again, Ole Miss was simply the "other team" in this study. I could have used others.

Paul
 
agree w/ Jimmy that books would have Ole Miss -3, i would have it pk

high on Lville this season, mainly due to their schedule and i'll likely back Ole Miss when dogged this season
 
Pretty sure based on goy lines that ville would be the favorite over ole miss, so I disagree with those that think the market would have ole miss with a minus sign let alone a full fg. Pretty sure ville wouldn't be getting a td at the rebs.. The question that matters is "should they be favored over ole miss?". Incidentally, the usm game was played in the worst weather of any game last season where there were literally ponds on the field of play. Ville was actually quite fortunate to win but hard to put much stock in that game. And the UConn game teddy busted up his wrist early and then did his best willis reed imitation to get the game into overtime before he was picked. roughly double the fd's and a huge yardage edge for ville in that one. Don't get me wrong ...being in games with usm , cuse and UConn like that and then expecting a team to be elite the next year is hard to wrap the head around. defense would have to make major strides. schedule is so cake.
 
suspect I am too high on ville in my first pr run too .... but I am clearly lower than market has them. And I still have ville at -1 so books would surely have them minus even more.
 
VK said:
Pretty sure based on goy lines that ville would be the favorite over ole miss, so I disagree with those that think the market would have ole miss with a minus sign let alone a full fg. Pretty sure ville wouldn't be getting a td at the rebs.. The question that matters is "should they be favored over ole miss?". Incidentally, the usm game was played in the worst weather of any game last season where there were literally ponds on the field of play. Ville was actually quite fortunate to win but hard to put much stock in that game. And the UConn game teddy busted up his wrist early and then did his best willis reed imitation to get the game into overtime before he was picked. roughly double the fd's and a huge yardage edge for ville in that one. Don't get me wrong ...being in games with usm , cuse and UConn like that and then expecting a team to be elite the next year is hard to wrap the head around. defense would have to make major strides. schedule is so cake.
Click to expand...
also about the Uconn game, was week before Cards played Rutgers for eventual Big East Chip...so look ahead spot too?
 
VK said:
there were literally ponds on the field of play.
Click to expand...

LOL!!! Played in a softball tournament like that once. The plate and batter's boxes were under about 8-10 inches of water. If you didn't swing, the ball landed in the puddle and splashed the catcher in the face.
 
Good discussion, gents. A few more stats for thought: In a four-game, mid-season stretch last season, Louisville's defense allowed 197, 196, 255 and 278 yards rushing. Their opponents? No Ricky Williams in the bunch as the teams were, drumroll please, USF, Cincy, Temple and Syracuse. Two weeks earlier in the above-mentioned puddle game, USM rushed for 224 yards against the Cardinals. I have nothing against Louisville, folks, but this is not a Top 10 type team. It's probably borderline Top 25 in any sharp's PRs at best. The victory over Florida in the bowl game and the Strong/Bridgewater lovefest have this team way overvalued. Good luck, Paul
 
pstone said:
Carolina Guy:
I'll give the cliff's notes version. I handicap sports, specializing in college football. I try to win. My adversary is the linemaker who develops a line based on his perception of the public's collective perception of the involved teams. Many handicappers _ especially many of the more successful ones _ develop power ratings _ some spending hours upon hours in massaging and fine tuning their PRs. They then use those PRs as one of the tools to develop their own pointspread on a game, comparing their spread to the earliest opening number and, in some cases, attacking perceived weaknesses in the linemaker's number.
Occasionally, a capper may utilize a forum such as this one to pose questions about a hypothetical matchup in an effort to gain insight to the public's collective perception of the included teams. Although the sample size is relatively small, I find many persons on these forums to have above-average knowledge (Some can make a number, some have no idea), so I give more credence to the opinion of five persons here than, say, five persons with their cracks exposed turning in a zillion parlay cards at the LVH Superbook at 8:55 a.m. on a fall Saturday morning. My exercise in this case essentially is to measure the public's pulse relating to a Louisville team which is gaining much preseason attention. I have posed this same scenario at three other forums. I suspected the forum responders would have Louisville at least somewhat overvalued. My suspicions have been validated. IMO, the game should be lined anywhere from a Pick to Mississippi favored by between 1-to-2.5 points. The linemaker doesn't put much stock in a bowl victory over a disinterested opponent, but rather looks more closely at the 2012 full body of work and a very average major college defense.
So, much like why does the NFL care how many times a strongman can bench press 225 pounds (After all, he's not going to be bench pressing while taking on a 325-pound offensive lineman), I do exercises to prepare my arsenal for the upcoming season.

Thanks for responding and good luck this season,
Paul
Click to expand...

Great reply. Thx for the response. BOL to you as well.
 
But I'm gonna step out on a limb and say Ole Piss is and will be the team everyone falls in love with this year if it hasn't already happened.
 
Maybe I'm high on both teams. Basically a pick for me rite now, ville -.5 and I have ville 13th overall
 
pstone said:
Carolina Guy:
I'll give the cliff's notes version. I handicap sports, specializing in college football. I try to win. My adversary is the linemaker who develops a line based on his perception of the public's collective perception of the involved teams. Many handicappers _ especially many of the more successful ones _ develop power ratings _ some spending hours upon hours in massaging and fine tuning their PRs. They then use those PRs as one of the tools to develop their own pointspread on a game, comparing their spread to the earliest opening number and, in some cases, attacking perceived weaknesses in the linemaker's number.
Occasionally, a capper may utilize a forum such as this one to pose questions about a hypothetical matchup in an effort to gain insight to the public's collective perception of the included teams. Although the sample size is relatively small, I find many persons on these forums to have above-average knowledge (Some can make a number, some have no idea), so I give more credence to the opinion of five persons here than, say, five persons with their cracks exposed turning in a zillion parlay cards at the LVH Superbook at 8:55 a.m. on a fall Saturday morning. My exercise in this case essentially is to measure the public's pulse relating to a Louisville team which is gaining much preseason attention. I have posed this same scenario at three other forums. I suspected the forum responders would have Louisville at least somewhat overvalued. My suspicions have been validated. IMO, the game should be lined anywhere from a Pick to Mississippi favored by between 1-to-2.5 points. The linemaker doesn't put much stock in a bowl victory over a disinterested opponent, but rather looks more closely at the 2012 full body of work and a very average major college defense.
So, much like why does the NFL care how many times a strongman can bench press 225 pounds (After all, he's not going to be bench pressing while taking on a 325-pound offensive lineman), I do exercises to prepare my arsenal for the upcoming season.

Thanks for responding and good luck this season,
Paul
Click to expand...
:searching: paul u gonna drive em out with that talk lol
 
Starting to kinda prepare playboy

lookin at shit way earlier than usual...I never do...still dont have my steele yet but I am on the mssg boards and shit

still trying to ghet some Jew_lane shit together too


Lookin more and more at Indy since our brief convo the other day

Gonna try and look at ACC this year early so I gotta jump on shit....that conference is always an enigma for me
 
twinkie13 said:
Starting to kinda prepare playboy

lookin at shit way earlier than usual...I never do...still dont have my steele yet but I am on the mssg boards and shit

still trying to ghet some Jew_lane shit together too


Lookin more and more at Indy since our brief convo the other day

Gonna try and look at ACC this year early so I gotta jump on shit....that conference is always an enigma for me
Click to expand...

to get you in some sort of a line ...

Clemson is the slight fav to win the Atlantic followed by Free Shoes. No other team will challenge, but go ahead and book nc state for at least one head scratching win and loss.

Again, people are sucking the cock of the Canes followed by UNC, GT, VPI (GT and VPI are interchangeable), UVa, Dook and Pitt.
 
I like a sleeper in that conference.... not that I have them with a pr higher than Clemson or anything but I think several of those also rans are better this year.
 
the whole conference is a sleeper to me.....meaning it always feels wide the fuck open as of late
 
twinkie13 said:
the whole conference is a sleeper to me.....meaning it always feels wide the fuck open as of late
Click to expand...


Coastal division certainly has been

The Atlantic Division is a very poor mans SEC West. It basically comes down to one game a year
 
ya it is Georgia tech. I think Virginia is a lot better too .. nice to see the one qb come into camp at nose tackle weight
 
VK said:
ya it is Georgia tech. I think Virginia is a lot better too .. nice to see the one qb come into camp at nose tackle weight
Click to expand...


Like VA myself but not sure how many opportunities there are going to be with their brutal schedule. London is a solid coach IMO and I hope this years schedule doesn't fuck him long term. If UVA dares get rid of him they'll set themselves back another 5 years easily
 
Schrute said:
Like VA myself but not sure how many opportunities there are going to be with their brutal schedule. London is a solid coach IMO and I hope this years schedule doesn't fuck him long term. If UVA dares get rid of him they'll set themselves back another 5 years easily
Click to expand...

ex-uva hc leaving gt is one of the things I really like about them ironically.
 
Groh is/was absolutely awful. He overcoached and overthought his scheme to a point where it didn't allow the players to act fast. GTs biggest problem long term will be their inability to recruit but I think things set up well for them this year
 
UVa didn't do it last year. Not gonna do it this year. Certainly can't say with certainty that GT won't be there, but IMO they won't. They're about out of bullets.
 
Not that they could win the division, but I'd have to say the Terps are my sleeper. No fucking clue who wins the Coastal.
 
Just saw this tweet sorta related

@DavidPurdum: Notable NCAA coaches' career records vs. spread:
Nick Saban 118-85-2
Les Miles 70-73-4
Hugh Freeze 20-6
Steve Spurrier 146-118-7


Though let's be real Hugh has a really small sample size & mainly vs Sun Belt teams. Still does have an amazing ATS record
 
Miles doesnt suprise me at all silky

one great run he had the year they played a team in the ship that shouldnt of been there, I think they were a cover machine if I am not mistaken

other than that...nada
 
Ville -3.5. I'm hoping some of Ole Miss' young talent grows up quickly, but Freeze is still stocking the cupboard.
 
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