I rarely start my own thread, so this is probably worth reading...




P

pags11

dogs are a man's best friend
I'm on Nevada -3 (+105) vs. CSU and here's why:

Nevada is pretty money at home ATS, especially the last two years...I'm usually pretty good with their games...had them vs. Fresno in week one, and stayed far away in week 2 as I thought it was a pretty bad spot for them vs. ASU...I was, however, more impressed with their D line performance and they actually had a glimmer of hope in the first half before turning the ball over 4 times inside their 40...bottom line, is that there was just too much of a talent differential in that one...I did notice that Ault rested starting RB Hubbard (who's a stud)...he hasn't been fully healthy, but I expect him to do well vs. CSU this week...I see that CSU is the number one run D in the country, but then I look at their two opponents and I'm not that impressed...I do like the coaching matchup of Ault vs. Lubbick...I'm not saying that Ault's that great or anything, but I'm not sure CSU can keep up scoring with Nevada here...and yes, you've read this right, I am betting a favorite here...

I'd like to hear thoughts on this one...
 
good write-up pags..

Unfortunately, I have not gotten to see Nevada play that much all year..hope it hits for you.
 
Pags11...nice post; I did not see any of the Colorado St/CU game; I have a feel for Nevada since I saw them vs Fresno St.

I will have to dig into this further, but right off the top, I agree with you that this will be a tough road trip for the Rams, esp off the win vs their in-state rivals. I AM a little concerned with the 3rd or 4th best WAC team laying points to a team in a better conference.

GL.
 
I made Reno a slight favorite here as well on power ratings alone but I do agree with you, Pags, as far as situations go... this is a great spot for Reno, and they are much better at home than they are on the road...
 
horses,

you are right about the MWC being money ATS so far this year...this is more of a situational and gut play for me here...I follow Nevada as close as I do any team in the country...Ault needs this one bad...I think a lot really comes down to strength of schedule in this one...plus, as I stated Bell is the one that tore Nevada up last year (and he won't be playing in this one)...Haney seems to be managing the game well, but I'm not sure they have too many scoring threats...
 
Rex,

appreciate your insight brother...I really feel like in the first couple of weeks I haven't been looking at the big picture (like with Cal and Minny last week)...with this one, I think I need to...not saying that Nevada's gonna kill them or anything, but I just think they're the play...
 
yeah bro, last week was good for me in my big and medium plays and I have really been crushing the college halftimes, especially in the late games. Ohio State and Fresneck OVER the other night almost seemed too good to be true. I made the line 30, they came out with 26 and I was immediately on the phone, calling my office to have a guy get in my account and bet, and calling another office down here at the same time to plow away haha
 
FWIW, Colorado State is just 1-4 ATS

the game following Colorado the past five years.

Love Nevada in this spot. The Pack is 0-2 straightup; needs a win; has the better running game; has the better QB; and figures to out-rush its opponent.

Good luck,
Paul
 
You have to love a small line against a team that struggled with Colorado last week. My power ratings have this at a pick 'em, but I disagree with that. I think Nevada is in the right place for a big win here.
beerchug.gif
 
bull's coatailing rule #5
If Pags is posting a Favorite. PLAY IT !:cheers:
 
yanks,

their D was alright, but ASU just had too many playmakers for them to keep up

bull,

thanks...actually may play another small fav or two this week,

rex,

good job so far this year...wanted to pass along that the coache's show will be on ESPNU tommorrow morning...am tivoing it...

soonerbs,

I agree that the line should be pick...kind of weird that them being -3 inclines me to think the book thinks they are shading Nevada's way trying to get some CSU action here...

redbearde,

good to hear...I've enjoyed reading your stuff so far this year...GL bud...

pstone,

I didn't know that trend, but know that usually CSU doesn't fair too well after the CU game...thanks...

more updates to come here guys...
 
Pags11, here is what I got...

FWIW...Nevada is 0-8 SU vs Colorado St lifetime (avg score 20-41) This isn't too big a deal; very much doubt this will be a mental issue.

Lubicks favorite role is that of Away Underdog...26-15 in his tenure at CSU, 4-4 L2Y.

CSU is 1-4 ATS post Colorado...thanks Pstone.

Ok, enough of that. Without Kyle Bell, Colorado St appears to have no running game. They also appear to have one serious receiving threat in WR Walker. They were able to get away with this against CU, because they have NO offense.

I need RB Hubbard to not only play, but I need him to start and get the carries here. Check out the stats for Hubbard and the backup vs ASU...big difference. HC Ault seemingly took Rowe to task, and I expect a much better effort from him this week, though I don't think Hanie is too far behind Rowe. Check out Hanie's numbers vs CU.

I really like the spot for Nevada; I do think they are about even teams, but CSU is w/o their stud RB. Also, a decent team like Nevada that is 0-2 will be very hungry to win. Only problem I have betting this game...I have absolutely no idea which side has the better defense, though I have a feeling it is CSU with a lot of returning starters.

GL but I'm still pondering.
 
horses,

while I appreciate the trend of Nevada vs. CSU, I don't know how relavent it is here, because they haven't played eachother a whole lot in the last 10 years (I mean most of those games were in the 70's, 80's and early 90
s when Nevada was I-AA)...I do know that Nevada was 5-1 ATS at home last year, and have been good traditionally ATS at home under Ault...word I got is that Ault pretty much knew he wouldn't win that game and didn't want to wear Hubbard down, saving him for this week...I agree with you that he is a key component in them being victorious this weekend...I think the trend of CSU coming off of the CU game is especially important as well...Rowe got pulled out of the game last week, mostly due to the score...Ault is a prick, but he knows how to motivate...we'll have to see here...
 
I don't think that trend is relavant at all Pags, just worth noting while handicapping the game. (hard to miss a winless record against another team). Your take on that trend is right on though.

I also agree the post CU trend is much more relavent; I will monitor Hubbard's progress thru the week, but indications are he will be close to 100%. I'm thinking this play may have some merit.

Ault is 6-0 ATS as a HF; not sure of the time period.
 
wanted to pass this along as I had some of my clients attend the QB club luncheon yesterday for Nevada...apparently the main reason that Hubbard didn't play in the first half is that he didn't practice Tue. or Wed...you may remember that Ault did the same thing to Nicheron Flowers last year against Wazzu...it's like in the games he's overmatched in he makes examples of his star players...but the thing about Ault is, he wins the games he's supposed to...rarely does he win the ones (or cover, especially on the road) like last week, but these ones he relishes...he'll put it on teams too...you don't have to worry about them giving up the lead as you do with other teams, because he keeps attacking...
 
I'm sure you've seen the line has moved to Nevada -2.5 and is currently -2 at sportsbook.com and wwts.com. Nine.com has the line @ -1.5.
You think it could go any lower? Maybe -1.5 or eventually a PK at the rest of the books?
 
thanks vanzack...I'm really surpised by the line move, but considering the MWC's success vs. the spread and their 2-0 record I can see a reason why people are betting CSU here...I just wouldn't be...
 
just tailed you, pags. got it at -2.5, at plus money earlier tonight. did some reading & researching...came back to this thread...and must say i'm convinced. excellent thread. thx, bud.
 
I think it's a great play pags. With you on Nevada this week. Bell is definitely out for CSU, right?... :shake:
 
aztec,

as Jump On Board states, Bell is out for the year with a knee injury...I'm watching the CU/ CSU replay from last week and it's one frickin' ugly game...
 
dont especially like this play, but i'm on it w/ ya....

the line was at -2.5 +104 so i got it at -2 -10? (the line is dropping like a stone)
 
Weird movement but who cares. This is the correct side IMO.

Nice write-up PAGS...best of luck..

Good stuff from everyone in this thread.
 
rjurewitz said:
Long story. Needless to say he burned his bridge and his welcome here one day.
Click to expand...


didn't see that coming!!! j/k :drink:


pags is always strong and always worth paying attention to. i have a good friend who graduated from CSU and for what it is worth, he DOES NOT like the chances of his Rams in Reno this weekend. his buddies, who went to the game last weekend, said the Rams did not look all that impressive against the Buffs. hopefully that continues this weekend as i'm in on this play.

thx for the thread pags and ante up more often!! :cheers:
 
Tarheel Brn&Bred said:
didn't see that coming!!! j/k :drink:


pags is always strong and always worth paying attention to. i have a good friend who graduated from CSU and for what it is worth, he DOES NOT like the chances of his Rams in Reno this weekend. his buddies, who went to the game last weekend, said the Rams did not look all that impressive against the Buffs. hopefully that continues this weekend as i'm in on this play.

thx for the thread pags and ante up more often!! :cheers:
Click to expand...

Good stuff Tarheel. Hope they are right.
 
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