Husky's Lets Crack the 25 Uconn vs UVA Analysis

[husky17]

23-10 ytd. 4-0 ATS betting on my Huskies.

How terrible did UVA look on saturday? Jesus, I for one thought they'dcover 10 easily. Nope. They looked like Hell. Watching the game, a few things stuck out to me. Man, are the Huskies going to be able to run through the gaps on these guys. Dixon and Brown are goign to have a field day, and Edsall is going to use these two a lot to throw UVA off and not let them control the run at all.

QB Tyler Lorenzen is goign to have a great day as well. I think they will establish the run early and let him get a few quick slants and curls early to get him comfortable for having been off a week. After that i really think he'll have no barriers. MTSU threw the ball very effectively, especially the 20 yard deep routes. I think this favors the Huskies tremendously as they have good wide recievers. I personally think Hernandez will benefit the most from UVA's week pass D. MTSU QB Dwight Dasher threw for 185 yards and 2 td's vs this team.. wait, who? EXActly. Lorenzen is ranked in the top 3 in overall passing in the big east, and he's also a playmaker on the groudn when the line collapses and no one is open.


I am a Jameel Sewell Hater. I think he is a terrible QB. Granted, UVA couldn't really generate anything running, he had a terrible game and was frustrated by MTSU all day. I have to believe Uconn is going to frustrate him a lot more than MTSU. While his stats, 22-37, 223 yards 1TD 1INT don't look bad, he truley looked lost int he first half.

Uconn's defensive has been forcing turnovers all year, a nd their Secondary is the secondary I've been saying they are since preseason. For a UVA team, who only averages 180 ypg in the air, and 120 ypg on the ground, I think Uconn is greatly favored here. (Yes, i Know, they played cupcakes-- but their D is absolutely LEGIT)



I know these guys, and i know they love being overlooked on this game. Keepign fueling the fire. I think Uconn comes to UVA and comes out firing, and UVA is not going to know what hit them.



Uconn +4.5, all fucking day. Any questions, let me know, I was kind of brief on my analysis

 

[gridironguy]

I hope a lot of people are thinking the same way as you are........

 

[Qdog]

Husky, couldn't agree more. Uconn wins this one on the field. If UVA struggled against MTSU's D, the Husky D will give them fits. It's true they haven't had a tough schedule, but having the 4th ranked defense in the nation is pretty damn good no matter who you've played.

Should be a good game, I hope people pound UVA so I can get a nice +6 or something like that with the Huskies.

 

[Seabass]

My fear here is that Sewell, with more athletic ability than the kid from Temple, will carve up the D. They have been pretty good against the drop back passers, but I do worry about discipline if Sewell decides to scramble.

Getting more than a score, though, I don't see how you couldn't take a bite on UConn. I'm not sure if I like the ML more or the FG more (depends on the ML, obviously).

UConn is coming off a bye, too, which I like. They surely must know how important this game is, and while UVA clearly was looking ahead, its not like they were flat out preparing for UConn last week. We do have a minor concern of a lookahead to Louisville, but I think UConn is smart enough to realize that this is their game to prove what they are made of.

I'm with you on this one...I don't think UConn should be favored by any means, but I think the game is a pure toss up and I'll gladly take the points.

 

[husky17]

I agree with you Seabass.. but I also think the bye week and having saturday gives us the pure advantage in being able to lock down Sewell. I promise you the huskies watched that game, and Edsall is a smart defensive coach. He is going to have his team prepared for Sewells athleticism. Our LB crew will be healthy too, which is great.


I know a bunch of people who are driving down to the game, and I could be one of those degenerates.. going to be a good one

 

[Seabass]

I agree with you Seabass.. but I also think the bye week and having saturday gives us the pure advantage in being able to lock down Sewell. I promise you the huskies watched that game, and Edsall is a smart defensive coach. He is going to have his team prepared for Sewells athleticism. Our LB crew will be healthy too, which is great.


I know a bunch of people who are driving down to the game, and I could be one of those degenerates.. going to be a good one

Nice, it would be awesome to see some UConn fans down there. I've heard a few from over on the Scout.com UConn board, so hopefully there will be a nice contingent...

 

[husky17]

Yeah.. Storrs is finally excited about football and it really is carrying throughout the state.

 

[B.A.R.]

Def lean this way so far..

 

[Qdog]

"Peerman, the ACC's leading rusher, went down in the first quarter with what appeared to be an ankle injury. He spent much of the second half on crutches and wore a walking boot after the game."

Surprised no one has mentioned this yet. If he can't go, that's a pretty big loss for Virginia.

 

[Seabass]

"Peerman, the ACC's leading rusher, went down in the first quarter with what appeared to be an ankle injury. He spent much of the second half on crutches and wore a walking boot after the game."

Surprised no one has mentioned this yet. If he can't go, that's a pretty big loss for Virginia.

Well, your in a thread of UConn homers, so we don't need to be all too convinced, haha...

But yes, Peerman would be huge, it would save a lot of explosiveness...but I'd kinda rather face them at full strength and see where we stand.

 

[pags11]

I'm not a Connecticut homer, but I am on them this week...

 

[Blue_Chip]

UConn caught my eye at first glance, but I am not all that knowledgeable about the program, so I am glad to see you discuss it here. I made money on UConn in the season opener versus Duke but that has been it.

 

[husky17]

Yes, I actually left Pearman out of my discussion. He was the only one generating offense vs MTSU. 9 rushes for 45 years.. so a 5 ypg was their best go to weapon..

The thing is, I don't necessarily see UVA quitting on the run, but I do think Sewell will get alot of touches.. 37 passes vs a MTSU team.. you can only imagine

 

[husky17]

UConn Downplays What Win Could Bring

<DL class=byline>By SHAWN COURCHESNE | Courant Staff Writer <DD>October 10, 2007 </DD></DL>Article tools

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STORRS - Inside the Burton Family Football Complex, Saturday's game is looked at as just one of 12 on the schedule, a road game against a tough ACC opponent that sets up the six-game end run through the Big East portion of UConn's schedule.

But it's a game Saturday against Virginia in Charlottesville that could have monumental ramifications for the program.

A victory over the Cavaliers could vault UConn into the Top 25 in the polls, which would be a first for the program since it began its ascension to Division I-A in 2000.


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<!-- END rail -->Taking such a big step isn't something coach Randy Edsall is worrying about as he prepares for Saturday.

"There's no sense talking about that because it's not there," Edsall said. "We just want to win. We don't care about anything else other than winning. We're just going to focus and practice and win. That's what we're trying to do. Hopefully we can prepare well enough this week and we can stay healthy and we can go down and play and hopefully get some breaks and give ourselves an opportunity to win. Other than that, I don't even want to talk about anything else because it doesn't mean anything."

UConn (5-0) is one of 11 undefeated teams in Division I-A and the only team in that group not in the Top 25 of The Associated Press writers poll. With 20 points, UConn was ranked 34th of 44 teams receiving votes in the AP poll released Sunday. Tennessee, with 90 points, was 25th.

Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated, who votes in the poll, isn't surprised UConn is struggling to gain respect in the polls.

"I felt like they had more notice a few years ago when [former quarterback Dan] Orlovsky was there and they had just joined the Big East," Mandel said. "They were getting a lot of coverage and they were on TV and people knew them for that. He graduated and they haven't had much success and they kind of faded into obscurity while other programs in the Big East like Louisville and Cincinnati and South Florida and Rutgers stepped in and grabbed the spotlight they had. It's not like people don't know that they have a football program. It's just that they've really become an afterthought for the past couple years now, and I think because of that it might be taking people a little bit longer to recognize that they may be back to being pretty good."

UConn received one vote for three points in the Sept. 23 AP poll after beating Pittsburgh. After beating Akron Sept. 29, UConn got votes from five writers and was 34th with nine points. Though UConn didn't play last week, it received votes from six writers, including a 17th-place vote from Pete DiPrimio of the Fort Wayne (Ind.) News. The other five voters had UConn between 22 and 25.

UConn could become the second quickest program to crack the AP Top 25 after joining Division I-A. Marshall made it in its third season in 1999. UConn's Big East brethren South Florida became the second quickest to earlier this year in its seventh season as a bowl eligible I-A program. UConn is in its sixth season as a full-fledged I-A member.

Mandel said a victory over Virginia would have him leaning toward putting the Huskies in his Top 25.

"The fact that they would go on the road and beat a 5-1 ACC team would finally give them that significant victory that they needed to merit consideration," Mandel said. "The first five games have been against some pretty inferior competition."

Chuck Banning, who covers the team for the Day of New London, is the only state writer who votes in the poll. He has not put UConn on his ballot this season.

"I try to really pick the best 25 teams out there," Banning said. "I honestly don't think they're that yet. They've had some really good road games. If they beat Virginia, at that point, 6-0, winning three road games, at that point I think they are deserving."

Playing the respect card is not something going on in Storrs.

"We're really not worried about that right now," senior defensive tackle Dan Davis said. "Whatever we deserve to get that's what we'll get at the end of the season. That's one more thing to worry about that we don't need to worry about. Only thing we need to be worried about right now is keeping this team together to go out there and win games. If we do that we'll get our respect one way or another."

Said senior linebacker Danny Lansanah: "We're not putting any emphasis that this is a game that could establish us as a program. We feel that we're already established as a program."

Contact Shawn Courchesne at scourchesne@courant.com.
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[husky17]

no use making another thread.. will keep my plays here..

FSU -5... I like XL as their QB, and if they didnt fuck up so bad in the first half vs clemson, they'd be a top 5 team and undefeated.

They are a good team and will get it done against a Wake Forest team that overachieved last year

 

[J Galt]

Love hearing this kind of stuff, I was worried that this line was too low this week, but I didn't realize how much everyone would overreact to the MTSU game last week.

 

[husky17]

Why do you see it as an overreaction? I think it's a correct reaction. Your offense was asleep most of the game, and the only one who produced, is listed questionable at best for Saturday.

Add the fact that you made Dwight Dasher look like Colt Brennan, and I'd say the reaction is worthy.

 

[counselor]

Love hearing this kind of stuff, I was worried that this line was too low this week, but I didn't realize how much everyone would overreact to the MTSU game last week.

Overreact? Are you kidding me? Once is a fluke. Twice is a trend. There's a pattern here.

Wyoming?
Duke?
UNC?
MTSU?

I'm not betting a penny on this game because UVA made my list of "never-bet-a-game-this-cock-sucking-team-plays-in" because they cost me bill after bill, but give me a break....

 

[Seabass]

Love hearing this kind of stuff, I was worried that this line was too low this week, but I didn't realize how much everyone would overreact to the MTSU game last week.

What would you have set the line at prior to this week?

I figured it would be from 3-4. I also figured UVA would lookahead on the road, and took MTSU +10.

If there really is an overreaction here, are you saying you think the line should be higher?

 

[Fondybadger]

Thanks guys for the thoughts, gives me the info I need on this game.

 

[husky17]

which way do you lean Nick?

 

[Briank017]

Uuucccoonnnn.......hussssskkiiiieeeesssss

 

[husky17]

Started the week off with fsu..fuckers..

Teasing BC and SC together.. i think both those lines are right on, so i'll take 6 points to make me feel better.

Central Mich- I think their high powered offense never lets Army into this game.

Uconn- Lets do it

 

[J Galt]

Seabass, I honestly thought this line would be 6, UVa is well known as a team that plays well at home and shitty on the road and struggle like crazy against teams like MTSU who spread the field and run all kinds of gimmicky plays.

Judging by the posts on here, no one saw the game against MTSU last week, so I don't see how any of you feel like you can intelligently comment on the happenings of that contest. I did watch the game and it went almost exactly how I thought it would (except I thought MTSU would win). You all do know that UVA outgained the Blue Raiders by close to 70 yards, right? To say that no one but Peerman, who only played part of the first quarter and got 19 total yards, was the only one that did anything is just plain dumb. Andrew Pearman (different guy, not the ACC leading rusher) played very well in his limited action, averaging 9 yards a carry. The leading rusher, Keith Payne, was very efficient as well, picking up 70 yards after Peerman went down. Overall, I think 150 yards rushing by the team is nothing to be ashamed of, not their best effort by any stretch but they did their job when they got their chances. In fact, the only player who played below average was Sewell, who reverted back to his Wyoming self at times overthrowing receivers and making bad decisions. Really nothing MTSU did, more so Jameel showing sophomore slumpitis.

On defense, UVA played well in all areas except for keeping Dasher in the pocket. They ran liberally when the protection broke down and the slow Hoo LBs were not able to keep up. It was frustrating as hell to watch because MTSU really stunk it up on O outside of that, with Dasher barely completing half of his passes for under 200 yards and McNair averaging less than 3 yards a carry when he got the ball.

The game came down to field position (MTSU won that), special teams (MTSU again), and the fact that UVa was not able to force one turnover all night. MTSU took what was given them, even though they were bad on 3rd down (6 for 17), and punched the ball in when they made plays. Nothing really else to it, the Blue Raiders played their best game (better than Louisville) and UVa played their typical lackluster, conservative style on the road. Again, DO NOT read into this performance as a indicator of what might happen today, very different situations with homefield and not being in a big letdown spot. This is a huge game that was circled early (along with GT and Pitt) as being must wins for the program to make a serious bowl (and for Groh to keep his job). Honestly, if Peerman and all-world CB Chris Cook weren't out for this game, I would make UVa a 3 unit play against a team they should really handle. With all of the injuries and Sewell being so Jekyll and Hyde, this game becomes a closer match. It'll come down to whether that good UVa D gets some turnovers and Payne and Pearman can pick it up in CP's absence to keep dominant in the running game.

Bottom line is this, this would be a much bigger upset than it would appear if UConn goes to C'ville and comes out with a win. It's a tough place to win and the Hoos are very talented, which I think is why I gave them a small look on my card. Looking very much forward to watching this one, I think a lot of questions will be answered on both sidelines by around 7PM tonight.

Good luck all.

 

[husky17]

well... i was right, but it doesnt feel as good.. we shudve won, fumbled in the redzone and couldnt convert on 3rd goal from the 2...sucks... but won ATS 4-0 today

 

[gridironguy]

well... i was right, but it doesnt feel as good.. we shudve won, fumbled in the redzone and couldnt convert on 3rd goal from the 2...sucks... but won ATS 4-0 today

Virginia had one more turnover than uconn, and Virginia had more total yds.

Virginia also missed a chipshot fg from about 25 yds or so with 30 seconds to go. I should have cashed my -3 ticket, IMO

 

[husky17]

I said they'd force a lot of turnovers, and they did. they have great CB's who picked a shitty Sewell off and forced fumbles. Uconn also missed a FG

 

[gridironguy]

I said they'd force a lot of turnovers, and they did. they have great CB's who picked a shitty Sewell off and forced fumbles. Uconn also missed a FG

Yes, you did predict that the UCONN D would play well.

Nice call, and congrats on the winning bet.

 

[Briank017]

nice day today husky...wish i bet!!!

 

[J Galt]

Virginia had one more turnover than uconn, and Virginia had more total yds.

Virginia also missed a chipshot fg from about 25 yds or so with 30 seconds to go. I should have cashed my -3 ticket, IMO

husky, listen to gridiron, you're in denial, UConn did not move the ball at all, capitalizing on turnovers only. Face the facts, if Gould doesn't miss that chipshot, your spread play loses too.

PS Both teams looked awful today, so for an outsider who did not watch this game don't think that either team really deserved it. Oh, and play Maryland -5 this week, they're going to murder this Hoo team the way they're playing right now.

 

[Seabass]

PS Both teams looked awful today, so for an outsider who did not watch this game don't think that either team really deserved it.

Now that I can agree with. The rest? Not so much.

UConn looked a lot better to me than you guys make it out to appear...a few plays go a different way (and they would have if Donald Brown wasn't mysteriously out) and UConn could have won this by 2 scores...

Oh well. Thats life. No one expected Uconn to do anything this year, and they lost a tight game. I can live with that. My skins, on the other hand...

 

[J Galt]

Now that I can agree with. The rest? Not so much.

UConn looked a lot better to me than you guys make it out to appear...a few plays go a different way (and they would have if Donald Brown wasn't mysteriously out) and UConn could have won this by 2 scores...

Oh well. Thats life. No one expected Uconn to do anything this year, and they lost a tight game. I can live with that. My skins, on the other hand...

Now you've been watching football long enough to know that the statement in bold is exactly WHAT football games are about. The Huskies are a nice little team that will win 8 games this year, but lets not get crazy, they DID NOT look good yesterday (and lets not pretend that Donald Brown would have been the difference maker on a field full of them yesterday). I saw a lot of bad playcalling, some really mediocre quarterbacking, and two teams who have some players but did not put anything together the other day. UConn got literally everything they put up off of a couple horrible decisions from Sewell, and UVa did nothing until they were behind on the scoreboard and realizing that they had a chance to lose the game and had to play with desperation.

And, how can you disagree with the fact that the cover was in the bag until that horrible shank by Gould? Granted, UConn looked like they had something at the beginning of the drive, but fell apart when they had to pull something out. Nothing too surprising, just a young team not quite ready to win a tough game on the road yet. Nothing to worry about, though, they're going to win their signature game of the year this Friday night. :cheers:

 

[husky17]

it was a crazy game. I feel Uconn should've won, and that a fluke play happened at the end in which they had a 20 yard loss on a terrible snap just when they were moving the ball with 2 min to go.

You can say your bit, we can say ours. Cuz it was that kind of game. Uconn Covered. Uconn could've won, and could've won in a comifier fashion. They didn't. UVA could've covered at the end when Uconn had a turnover, but they didn't.

it goes both ways. Sloppy game, i just feel we really handed it to you, which sucks as a fan: fumble in 5 yard line trying to stretch out, fumble when were moving the ball to win the game.

 

[husky17]

And, if UVA hits that FG, i still cover my bet.

 

[gridironguy]

And, if UVA hits that FG, i still cover my bet.

I wish they would have hit the FG, because I had VA -3.

We both would have covered, and I'm sure you would not mind your team losing by 4 instead of 1 -- either way it's still a loss.

Husky offense should have success against the Louisville D this week, but can they stop the Louisville O?

I don't know..

 

[pags11]

great thread here guys...my take on the game is that I was impressed with both teams...you don't have to put up 40 points a game for me to appreciate a team's style of play...both of these teams are built on the running game and defense...I do think Donald Brown would have been a difference maker, but that being said, I also think Peerman being healthy would have made a difference too...I'm glad I cashed my UConn ticket, but feel the game was up in the air much of the way...

 

[brewer]

5-0 ats on your boys. good shit.

 

[husky17]

Yessssir brewer. Though this week might be the hardest yet. I really have a huge job in front of me in capping this game. Could end up being a no play, but thats not any fun.