2daBank
Voice of Reason
oh i like him with steelers for sure, he plenty talented, wasnt making a crack at him i seriously didnt know who he was playing for now!! lol
Hulu's NFL 2020
- Thread starter Hulu
- Start date
oh i like him with steelers for sure, he plenty talented, wasnt making a crack at him i seriously didnt know who he was playing for now!! lol
Hulu
#3DownNation
He sort of got forgotten when he got hurt LY and Doyle took over so I guess I am betting that he comes back from that because he is plenty talented.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Results after week 1...
Sides 3-0-1 +3.00*
Totals 2-1 +1.40*
Tease/Parlay 0-1 -0.50*
Player Props 6-4 +0.48*
2H / Live 1-1 -0.25*
Overall 12-7-1 +4.13*
Not a bad start. Not going to complain.
Locked in for week 2...
1* Detroit +6 -112
1.5* LAR / PHI under 48.5 -110 - love this play
Sides 3-0-1 +3.00*
Totals 2-1 +1.40*
Tease/Parlay 0-1 -0.50*
Player Props 6-4 +0.48*
2H / Live 1-1 -0.25*
Overall 12-7-1 +4.13*
Not a bad start. Not going to complain.
Locked in for week 2...
1* Detroit +6 -112
1.5* LAR / PHI under 48.5 -110 - love this play
Hulu
#3DownNation
Yup. Also like that Goff is typically not a good road QB and Philly's banged up receivers, this line looked too good to be true. I see its at 47 now but I still think thats too high. I think 45.5 is probably about right.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
McVay vs Pedersen is a risky under. Rams have a lot of iffy CB's except Ramsey. I need to look at this 1 more. GL
Hulu
#3DownNation
Yeah good point, the Rammers secondary situation is a bit of a concern. I made this bet very early because I thought the number was way too high. The books had adjusted the Eagles total down for week 1 based on their receiver and OL problems but hadn't touched the week 2 total so I had a pretty good idea it would eventually head downward also. The nice thing about getting ahead of a line move is that even if its not your strongest play, you have the opportunity to buy off or even go for a middle if things work out. I'm still assessing whether I will stay on this one or not. The Iggles are getting a few pieces back this week but I still think they have some offensive troubles and I've never been a fan of Goff on the road.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Good call because this total is now 45.5. Interesting note about the Rams being on the road. They've been good at getting W's. McVay and Goff are 17-7 SU on the road in 3 seasons.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Buying off this bet that I took prior to week 1. I don't do it often but I'll eat the juice because I just see too many things lining up against the Leos here. Still love the over though.
1* Green Bay -6 -107
Hulu
#3DownNation
Interesting. Admittedly I don't have numbers to back that claim, its more of a gut feel from what I've seen and its entirely possible I'm wrong about that.
Nevertheless, I'm still leaning toward keeping this bet instead of buying off. We'll see how she goes.
Hulu
#3DownNation
I see the look ahead for week 3 has Minnesota +1 at home to Tennessee. Am I getting the Viks all wrong? I mean I know theyve lost a lot of pieces but they still have a lot going for them. The loss to the Pack was ugly but it was also a matchup nightmare. Dogging them at home to the Titans just seems like an overreaction to me.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Week 2 Card thus far...
1* Detroit +6 -112
1* Green Bay -6 -107 - Buy off Detroit bet
1* DET / GB over 49 -110
1.5* LAR / PHI under 48.5 -110
1* NY Giants +6 -112
1* NY Jets +7 -110
1* Philadelphia ML +105
1* Minnesota +3.5 -112
1* KC / LAC under 47.5 -111
0.4* JAX / TEN under 3.5 FGs +100
Likely a few more props to come
1* Detroit +6 -112
1* Green Bay -6 -107 - Buy off Detroit bet
1* DET / GB over 49 -110
1.5* LAR / PHI under 48.5 -110
1* NY Giants +6 -112
1* NY Jets +7 -110
1* Philadelphia ML +105
1* Minnesota +3.5 -112
1* KC / LAC under 47.5 -111
0.4* JAX / TEN under 3.5 FGs +100
Likely a few more props to come
Hulu
#3DownNation
Adding...
0.5* Parlay BUF / ARZ / KC +139
0.5* Prop E Elliot Rec yds over 30.5 -116
0.5* Prop H Hurst Rec yds over 37.5 -120
0.5* Prop D Goedert Rec yds over 41.5 -120
0.5* Prop M Andrews Rec yds over 53.5 -120
0.5* Prop R Mostert Rush yds under 64.5 -120
0.4* Prop JAX / TEN Total FGs under 3.5 +100
0.5* Parlay BUF / ARZ / KC +139
0.5* Prop E Elliot Rec yds over 30.5 -116
0.5* Prop H Hurst Rec yds over 37.5 -120
0.5* Prop D Goedert Rec yds over 41.5 -120
0.5* Prop M Andrews Rec yds over 53.5 -120
0.5* Prop R Mostert Rush yds under 64.5 -120
0.4* Prop JAX / TEN Total FGs under 3.5 +100
Hulu
#3DownNation
Yup. Foggy Andy and crew should be 3.5pt dogs to no one. Maybe if the stadium was packed I could see it but in an empty barn HFA is much less than what it was.
I wish books would let me make a 'whomever has the ball last to win' bet but they don't so KC it is.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i dunno what they giving for HF here? I kinda assume they think ravens a point or 2 better on a neutral. Although i like ravens d at least as much as the ones that give kc problems I don’t think they match up as well. Will be curious to see cause ravens don’t exactly rush 4 and sit back like the teams who tend to slow chiefs down. They way more aggressive which i gotta assume will lead to getting hit for a few big plays.
Hulu
#3DownNation
HFA is a weird thing. Its been declining in importance for some years now to the point where I was using 2.5 and then 2 as a baseline and then adjusting for particular teams. But last year it dropped off a cliff and became almost negligible and then this year I don't know what to make it. I think1-1.5 pts is my best guess. Crowds are gone but theres still the hassle of travel and in a pandemic its even somewhat more difficult as players have to alter thewir routines due to restrictions. It will be interesting to do the math and see how it shakes out at the end of this season. I have the Ravens 1pt better so with HFA its 2.5 and anytime you give me a number that's on the wrong side of the 3 (as I see it) I'm gonna take it.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
im with ya, outside the handful or so teams with legit things working in their favor at home I don’t look at it as 3 anymore. There still several I would typically give 3-4 but not now. This year I think there only few that should still get close to 3. Donks cause the altitude, maybe the Florida teams if it hot, maybe later on few the cold places if a dome or southern team coming in and weather gets cold/nasty. Outside that I’m almost looking at them as neutral.
I know travel can factor but what that really worth I’ve never thought was easy to quantify. It doesn’t make much sense to apply a number to whatever it is since the times it does effect teams I think it prob way more so than a point or 2, when it actually does tho is anyone’s guess? Thursday night I’d imagine still worth giving home teams something, Dunno bout this week where the travel minimal. All just a long way of saying I think it almost more accurate to call it situational advantages or something other than HFA this season, lol.
Hot play, I like it.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Bringing it all together in one post with a couple adds. This should be it for today...
1.5*/.5* NY Giants +4.5/ML -105/+165
1* Kansas City +3.5 -111
1* KC / BAL over 53.5 -110
1* TEN / MIN under 48 -107
1* CIN / PHI over 46 -110
1* Atlanta -3 -118
1* New England -6 -110
1* Buffalo -2 -110
1* New Orleans -3 -110
BOL to all today
1.5*/.5* NY Giants +4.5/ML -105/+165
1* Kansas City +3.5 -111
1* KC / BAL over 53.5 -110
1* TEN / MIN under 48 -107
1* CIN / PHI over 46 -110
1* Atlanta -3 -118
1* New England -6 -110
1* Buffalo -2 -110
1* New Orleans -3 -110
BOL to all today
Hulu
#3DownNation
Adding another half to this at -2.5. Don't understand this move. Full bet now as follows...
1*/.5* Atlanta -3/-2.5 -118/-110
2daBank
Voice of Reason
the move has to be news Julio out right?
Hulu
#3DownNation
Well now that could be it. I missed that rather important info. Whoops!
I still kind of like it though
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Good luck today pal
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Pats and bills will have me going back across river to Illinios to cash some big parlay tickets!! Cmon boys!! Lol. 1st time since last trip to Vegas I’m actually holding real tickets in my hands! So exciting I can hop across the river and bet at a brick and mortar book now!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
just dunno if Ridley can handle being the one vs a really good defense? I have no doubt he talented enough to be groomed into the 1 role but think the monster games he been putting up last 2 years have a lot to do with the attention Julio gets!! I mean Julio hadn’t caught tds at all last 2 years and Ridley scores a ton, gotta be Julio getting the double blanket coverage in red zone.
