How Is TB A -145 Series Fav, Yet Hamels Is Favored To Win Game 1?

Blue_Chip said:
I'm still not understanding this reasoning that Marlo's coworker and another poster said on pg 1.

If the books do not want Tampa money, wouldn't they make them -175 rather than -135? This way if the Phils win, then the Tampa backers are losing almost 2-to-1. If the books think Tampa wins, then raise the price so that you will not get as much action on them.

Am I making no sense?
Click to expand...


Exactly. I don't think the current line promotes or dissuades action on either team. If they wanted money on the Phillies they would be +160 at the lowest and probably something like +180. If they were trying to discourage action on the Rays they would be -180 to -200. The line seems to be straightforward.
 
One team dominates the best division in baseball, all year long. One team, gets their division won on the second to last day... a rather mediocre division at that as well.

Sounds right to me... and Hamels being a stud is the only reason I see such great value on the Rays... I'd think TB should be laying -150 or more.
 
Marlo Stanfield said:
I was discussing this series with a guy I work with today that bets bases alot.

He told me he read an article on Monday about how Vegas set the Phillies as a dog, to entice people to bet on them. He said there were quite a few people that bet the Rays to win the WS this year early, and then again through out the year.

Just what he told me what he read, don't know if this means anything to you guys.
Click to expand...

Weird. Scott Van Pelt said exactly that on SportsCenter tonight.

"Vegas says the Tampa Bay Rays are WS favorites but they also say Steve that they are going to take such a pounding on longshot futures bet made earlier in the year on the Rays that they are just trying to even out the action."
 
tee*dub said:
also, gonna see Hamels 3 times (if needed)
Click to expand...

Hamels will NOT throw 3 times...I don't follow the Phillies as religiously as I used to (I was at Game 1 of the 1980 World Series), but I do follow them and know that Hamels has a very strict routine and will not throw on 3 days rest...No chance of him throwing 3 times unless a Hurricane postpones Games 6 & 7 a few days...


MusicCityGambler said:
It's the most overrated home run in baseball history. Not the home run itself which was unbelievably majestic but the impact of the home run. The Astros handled their business and won the series. Ultimately the Pujols home run was nothing more than a ball that never landed.
Click to expand...

I strongly, strongly disagree here...That home run totally wrecked their rotation for the World Series...The Stroh's had to throw Oswalt in Game 6 of the NLCS to clinch that series instead of throwing him in Game 1 of the World Series against the Sox...

Clemens then had to go Game 1 and tweaked his hammy or groin early in the game, only throwing 2 innings, giving up 3 runs and it was all down-hill from there as they had to waste some relievers for 6 innings, including Qualls, who threw 1 2/3 in relief in Game 1 and then he gave up a bomb in Game 2 in relief in a close game...

Had Oswalt gone Game 1 of the World Series, they may have won that game 3-2 or 3-1 and would not have wasted their bullpen at the very least had they lost and you are looking at a different series, with HOU possibly up 2-0 going back to Houston or at worst, tied at 1-1...Lot different then going back home down 0-2, when you pretty much HAVE to win all 3 at home...

Yes, that homer had little effect on the outcome of the NLCS, but it had a BIG effect on the World Series for the Astros...
 
Inspekdah said:
One team dominates the best division in baseball, all year long. One team, gets their division won on the second to last day... a rather mediocre division at that as well.

Sounds right to me... and Hamels being a stud is the only reason I see such great value on the Rays... I'd think TB should be laying -150 or more.
Click to expand...


Remember the Cards/Tigers in 06? Tigers were everyone's baby all year, cruising....Cards were "NL Trash" that was lucky to be there after clinching on the last Sunday of the year.

Fact is, it doesn't matter how either team got here or what they did during the 162.......It's all about the next 7 games.
 
I am simply explaining the statement about the line. Better division, better league, and much better teams played so far in the post-season. The Brewers wouldn't stand on the field with any AL team past 3 games (with the way CC pitched). Dodgers, had one offensive player and are a year off.

Easy road for the Phillies thus far and TB tested and risen to the occassion every time. Thus, they are a superior team right now and should be favored accordingly.
 
Inspekdah said:
One team dominates the best division in baseball, all year long. One team, gets their division won on the second to last day... a rather mediocre division at that as well.
Click to expand...

If that's your reasoning, then I see your point, but I think that is bad reasoning (and no disrespect spek bc I like reading your stuff).

You could make that argument about Dodgers vs Cubs. There is no contest the NL Central is tougher than the NL West. In the same token, that argument applies to the Angels dropping to Boston. I just don't think that is a way to handicap the series.

IMO fundamentally analyzing the matchups of starting pitching, bullpen, and lineup is the best way to reach a conclusion.

Starting rotation is about even IMO; you have the best SP in Hamels, then you have Kazmir and Shields, and I really think Myers is underrated. I consider Shields and Kazmir better than any of Philly's starters outside of Hamels, but the problem is that these guys will be heads up against Hamels in both (or three) of his starts, so that negates the depth of the starting rotation.

Bullpen I give to Philly. Price has all the upside in the world, but as we all know raw talent does not equal results on the field/diamond/court. The question I have is middle relief, getting from Hamels/Myers to Lidge. Then again, Wheeler has shown he can collapse (see Boston's 7-0 comeback).

Speed advantage without a doubt goes to Tampa. Lineup is hard to judge. Utley, Howard, Rollins, Burrell vs a team that cracked 16 HRs in the ALCS.

I like Phillies in the series.
 
I lean Tampa here BC... but I understand where your reasoning for liking Philly here is... I just think it would be stupid to have this series at like Pick'Em when Tampa is the home team, and some of the Philly's pitchers have struggled life time vs. Tampa. That's all.... just trying to support why this line isn't a "joke" as some are mocking it to be. Not really picking a side.
 
Philly could go cold any minute unlike TB and the Red Sox who play small ball and long ball. Problem with TB is if anyone singles they run well enough to stretch out a run or to 3rd on the following single. their speed is what is really scary.
 
Philly 3-15 vs. American league.

Yikes.

They may still win this year, but the American League has never been more superior than this year.
 
Smokedawg said:
Nut - Youre a mets fan arent you?

because thats about the only thing that would explain the complete lack of respect you have for the phillies
Click to expand...

I thought everyone knew I was Mr.Yankee .

Its notlack of respect did I not pound the shit out of them vs LAD ? You know I stopped by and congratulated you on there success and added I was on them.

Its reality no respect. The NL is weaker IMO . The Phillies probably have the best lineup in the NL but there pitching in general is medicore in terms of playoff quality IMO.....:shake:
 
Blue_Chip said:
I'm still not understanding this reasoning that Marlo's coworker and another poster said on pg 1.

If the books do not want Tampa money, wouldn't they make them -175 rather than -135? This way if the Phils win, then the Tampa backers are losing almost 2-to-1. If the books think Tampa wins, then raise the price so that you will not get as much action on them.

Am I making no sense?
Click to expand...


It has to be feasible you cant just throw out prices and not know at what point your going to put excessive risk on yourself . If they are getting enough money to balance there original risk out then they dont need to raise the price because they want to keep that same flow . They can also just slowly adjust it up as well few cents at a time.

They cant put out -175 because maybe rather then getting 58% of the flow say on Philly they now get 65% at higher price now creating more risk on philly then say originally on TB......(heavier Philly flow at higher + payout)

The prices they use have relevance. Did anyone realize that Boston was -130 for the series and then tied @ 3 in game 7 the price was Boston -130 @ TB. There is a method to there madness:shake:
 
aplous said:
Remember the Cards/Tigers in 06? Tigers were everyone's baby all year, cruising....Cards were "NL Trash" that was lucky to be there after clinching on the last Sunday of the year.

Fact is, it doesn't matter how either team got here or what they did during the 162.......It's all about the next 7 games.
Click to expand...

Thats not the case here though and isnt that representative of all the so called unbeatable teams ? I dont believe anyone feels TB is hands the best team in mlb and all that .

:shake:
 
Smokedawg said:
See, I think theyve been cold the whole playoffs

If they start hitting? Watch out...
Click to expand...


You are right they havent hit and lick actually and the scary part is this is the best pitching they will face . Tough to improve when yo face superior pitching but it happens .

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left>Total</TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>297 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>40 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>77 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>17 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>2 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>10 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>37 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>34 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>63 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>7 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>3 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=ysptblclbg6>.259 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>.335 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>.431 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>.766 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left>Total</TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>380 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>64 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>102 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>17 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>4 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>22 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>64 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>37 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>90 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>17 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>2 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=ysptblclbg6>.268 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>.335 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>.508 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD><TD class=yspscores>.843 </TD><TD class=yspscores> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

TB stats on the bottom they played 11 games to the Phillies 9 and had an extra inn affair . :shake:

 
vegaskyle said:
One of the local sportsbook managers said that they are trying to get as much money as possible on the phillies side because they are going to get destroyed on world series futures if tampa wins this thing.

i find it hard to believe but just passing it along.... as if the world series handle wont dwarf the futures .... but who knows.
Click to expand...


There's a lot of people sitting on 300-1 and 200-1 out there......
 
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27321792


Vegas Roots For Phillies
Posted By:Darren Rovell
Topics:Consumers | Gambling | Print Media | Sports


<SCRIPT type=text/javascript>setDefault('cnbc_textbody');</SCRIPT><TABLE style="PADDING-RIGHT: 15px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 5px" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="1%" align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
las_vegas_welcome_AP.jpg
</TD></TR><TR><TD>
AP​

<HR color=#c0c0c0 noShade SIZE=1></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>A story that has gotten a lot of traction over the last couple days has been the longshot odds Rays potentially putting a hurt on the sportsbooks in Vegas if they beat the Phillies in the World Series.
Most sportsbooks had the Rays at at least 150-to-1 odds to win it all when the season opened and a bunch had them at 200-to-1. This was despite the fact that some had projected that they'd win more than 85 games.
Those who don't know how things work have had fun speculating that the Rays winning could put some out of business. But let me assure you right now, unlike many companies we've seen go bust in recent weeks, these books are better at accessing risk and won't be in need of a bailout.
Everyone talks about the 200-to-1 number as the main risk or exposure to these sportsbooks and the idea that the risk is greatest there. But after speaking to my go-to-guy John Avello, I know that's not the case at all.
Avello is a longtime Vegas bookmaker who runs the race and sportsbook at the Wynn. He told me that while some books probably have a couple bets for $50 to $100 at 200-to-1, most of the problem came later in the year. You see, as the Rays cruised to the best record in the American League, Vegas still wasn't buying it. Avello said 40 games into the season, you could still get the Rays at 50-to-1. That's when more bets came at higher dollars.
Let's just work out this math. Let's say a sportsbook has a three bets for a combined total of $500 placed on the Rays at 200-to-1. If the Rays win, they will pay $1 million to those three people. But let's say they have five times the amount of bets and money at 50-to-1. So that's 15 people betting a combined total of $2,500 at 50-to-1. The book would have to pay $250,000 more in total to the 50- to-1 gamblers than the 200-to-1 gamblers.
While Avello said that he would come out "as red as Russia" on the future bets he took in if the Rays win, he said that this isn't a once-in-a-lifetime scenario, as some are making it out to be. Avello said that when the New England Patriots started the 2001 season by losing three of their first four games, he had them at 200-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. They of course beat the Rams that year.
Meanwhile, a happy woman showed up at Tropicana Field this morning showing us her betting slip. She is collecting $1,900 for her $25 bet that the Rays would win the AL East.
 
Blue_Chip said:
double standard.. both are teams compiled of pro ball players, so why can one go cold but the other can't?
Click to expand...


Different styles of play charlie is methodical and maddon will get on base and move runners and iwamura turns in a groundouot to 2nd into a single all the time.
 
the layoff will hurt the phils really bad. Rockies last year was a good example where their momentum just fizzled on top of the fact that they played a much better team. Phils bats will be snoozed till game 2/3 imo. Tampa chalk for the series is a matter of damage control for the bookies. I really do believe that. Might hit the -140 hard..
 
I still think there was alot TB money early in the start of the postseasn to win the ALCS and WS excpt I cant remember the original odds. Except that TB was the AL WS fav most of the time and was still the underdog vs boston.

I think the whole Vegas exposure thing is getting out of porportion now. They have exposure on some levels if TB wins but its nothing new . They always balance the books in some manner or attempt to . They did it last series making Boston -130 favs . The average guy was taking Boston and whatever big money was thrown onto TB chances are my this time +110 payouts wasnt going to kill them

What they are doing here is the same thing they do everyday nothing more . Just a few people actually noticed it this time.....
 
brewers7 said:
Hamels will NOT throw 3 times...I don't follow the Phillies as religiously as I used to (I was at Game 1 of the 1980 World Series), but I do follow them and know that Hamels has a very strict routine and will not throw on 3 days rest...No chance of him throwing 3 times unless a Hurricane postpones Games 6 & 7 a few days...
..
Click to expand...

I can guarantee you that if there is a game 7, Hamels will either start it or throw significant innings at some point.. Routines are thrown out the door in game 7's bro.. No disrespect but he is definately throwing on 3 days rest.... You really think he could look his teammates in the eyes if at age 24 and being the best pitcher in the series (IMO) , he tells his teamates, coach and the city he is unavailable on 3 days rest in game 7 of the World series BECAUSE HE HAS A ROUTINE?... Not a chance bro... If needed Hamels throws in 3 games..:shake:
 
tee*dub said:
I can guarantee you that if there is a game 7, Hamels will either start it or throw significant innings at some point.. Routines are thrown out the door in game 7's bro.. No disrespect but he is definately throwing on 3 days rest.... You really think he could look his teammates in the eyes if at age 24 and being the best pitcher in the series (IMO) , he tells his teamates, coach and the city he is unavailable on 3 days rest in game 7 of the World series BECAUSE HE HAS A ROUTINE?... Not a chance bro... If needed Hamels throws in 3 games..:shake:
Click to expand...


Exactly. Routines be damned when history is at stake.
 
tee*dub said:
I can guarantee you that if there is a game 7, Hamels will either start it or throw significant innings at some point.. Routines are thrown out the door in game 7's bro.. No disrespect but he is definately throwing on 3 days rest.... You really think he could look his teammates in the eyes if at age 24 and being the best pitcher in the series (IMO) , he tells his teamates, coach and the city he is unavailable on 3 days rest in game 7 of the World series BECAUSE HE HAS A ROUTINE?... Not a chance bro... If needed Hamels throws in 3 games..:shake:
Click to expand...

preach!

:shake:
 
Let's go Phils!

I put a little action on Philly in game 1. I'll probably bet every game this series for fun. Heading out to a game 1 party in a little...Hopefully I'll be drunk for all "6" games and then the celebration in Philly begins
 
I cant help but notice that Kaz wasnt dogged at home one time this year and all of a sudden he opens as a dog to Hamels...The best home team in baseball this year and they open up as a dog:4_12_12:
 
Good Luck all ! So far TB ML Game 1 2units and series 3units with additional props .

Would think Tee is correct but I'll take every opp to fade a SP on 3 days rest . Hamel is a bit of routine whore though he got shelled @ NYM on a Sunday night because he days off wheer shuffled I recall in late August when he went against Johan...dig it up fellas it outs there .....
 
$$CMoney$$ said:
I cant help but notice that Kaz wasnt dogged at home one time this year and all of a sudden he opens as a dog to Hamels...The best home team in baseball this year and they open up as a dog:4_12_12:
Click to expand...

Yep and were in Game 7 as well .....Kaz starting at Trop in 08 ?? 14-2 including postseason:cheers:


Also think this will NOT be a 1 run game feel free to play the RLs either way :shake:
 
I will be honest and say I hate the fact TB is turnining into the small fav because I dont if its good or bad .....
 
SportsNut said:
Yep and were in Game 7 as well .....Kaz starting at Trop in 08 ?? 14-2 including postseason:cheers:


Also think this will NOT be a 1 run game feel free to play the RLs either way :shake:
Click to expand...
Im obviously a Phillies fan and I really do try to be as objective as possible...The fact that they are 14-2 at home in Kaz starts this year and he opened as a dog seems like it may be a little bit of a trap to me but maybe thats just wishful thinking:tiphat:...Good Luck regardless SN:cheers:
 
Trueblue said:
the layoff will hurt the phils really bad. Rockies last year was a good example where their momentum just fizzled on top of the fact that they played a much better team. Phils bats will be snoozed till game 2/3 imo. Tampa chalk for the series is a matter of damage control for the bookies. I really do believe that. Might hit the -140 hard..
Click to expand...

Teams having played at least 2 CS games less than their opponent since 1985, are 2-6 SU in Game 1 of the WS.
 
$$CMoney$$ said:
Im obviously a Phillies fan and I really do try to be as objective as possible...The fact that they are 14-2 at home in Kaz starts this year and he opened as a dog seems like it may be a little bit of a trap to me but maybe thats just wishful thinking:tiphat:...Good Luck regardless SN:cheers:
Click to expand...

Clearly it concerned me but unfortunately I couldnt wait around till 1st pitch to figure out what to do. I guess I rationalized it as TB everytime I recall them playing a good team even late in the year they were still always cheap at home like PK , -120 or so and knew Hamels was a similiar fav both times @ LAD and split losing to the LHSP....

Trust me wish I could have turned my brain off and just bet on the line move ....:cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
I can guarantee you that if there is a game 7, Hamels will either start it or throw significant innings at some point.. Routines are thrown out the door in game 7's bro.. No disrespect but he is definately throwing on 3 days rest.... You really think he could look his teammates in the eyes if at age 24 and being the best pitcher in the series (IMO) , he tells his teamates, coach and the city he is unavailable on 3 days rest in game 7 of the World series BECAUSE HE HAS A ROUTINE?... Not a chance bro... If needed Hamels throws in 3 games..:shake:
Click to expand...

No disrespect here to your "guarantee", but you need to do your homework before posting things that are factually incorrect...

He is throwing Game 5...

So Hamels will have 2 days rest for Game 7, not 3 days rest...

So he will NOT start Game 7 on 2 days rest (zero chance) and I'd be shocked if he pitched at all...Shocked...

Now the exception would be an extra-inning game, or a slugfest in Game 7, where the Game 7 starter (Blanton) is out early (Moyer would be the next option for multiple innings, since HE would have 4 days rest) and then maybe, maybe, Hamels could go a batter or 2 at most...

You obviously don't follow the Phillies or you would know how strict they are with his pitch count and how anal Hamels is with his between-starts routine...

What most major-league starting pitchers do the day after they pitch is long-toss...On Day 2 they throw a 10-minute bullpen, but if they threw a lot of pitches during their last start and they don't feel 100% on Day 2, they will cut their bullpen down to 5 minutes...Many pitchers throw about 75% during this bullpen session the first 7 or 8 minutes, and then maybe cut it loose if they feel alright for the last 5 to 10 pitches...

Being a baseball guy who talks to scouts and professional pitchers, I have learned this...So, knowing this, the Phillies may push Hamel's bullpen session back a day (in fact, they will undoubtedly do this) to the day of Game 7, which means he would take about 5 to 8 minutes or so to warm-up in the pen and get loose, which leaves him with maybe 2 or 3 batters, TOPS, for an emergency appearance, which I do not see happening unless there are extraordinary circumstances that take place in Game 7...
 
gotta agree with brewers7 here...theres no chance (short of rainouts somehow stretching the schedule out) that Hamels pitches 3 times in this series

They just wont pitch him on short rest...its not gonna happen

Only chance it mightve had to happen is if they were down 3-0 going into game 4
 
Smokedawg said:
gotta agree with brewers7 here...theres no chance (short of rainouts somehow stretching the schedule out) that Hamels pitches 3 times in this series

They just wont pitch him on short rest...its not gonna happen

Only chance it mightve had to happen is if they were down 3-0 going into game 4
Click to expand...

Yes, sir, you are correct...And if you're from Philly (I live an hour away), you have undoubtedly seen Comcast SportsNet hundreds of times this season and know that the Phillies are being very careful with Hamels, just 24 years old, sort of the same way (but not to the extreme) that the Yankees are being ultra-careful with Jaba Chamberlain...

Cole Hamels is the Phillies' meal ticket for years to come if they can re-sign him and keep him in the organization...They simply are not going to risk starting him on 3 days rest at this point of his career, NOT EVEN for the World Series...

Not happening...

Which is why they have Moyer scheduled for Game 3, Blanton for Game 4, and Hamels for Game 5...

As of now, Blanton is the probable pitcher for Game 7 (on 3 days rest, skipping Moyer's turn), but in all honesty, if it goes 7 games and Moyer has an outstanding Game 3 and Blanton gets knocked around in Game 4, that WILL change and Moyer will start Game 7, but they'll have him on a short leash with Blanton ready to come in quickly for long relief if Moyer gets into any trouble at all after one time through the order...

I am not trying to be a dick, but I just want to see accurate info posted...And after watching the Phillies a lot this season and listening to their pre-game and post-game shows in the background on ComCast, it is a certainty that Cole Hamels will not start 3 games in this series unless bad weather in Philly and/or a hurricane in FLA pushes the series back a few days...That's all...GL...
 
brewer said:
do Noreasters happen in late october?
Click to expand...

Well, it isn't a Noreaster, but the forecast is for rain ALL DAY on Tuesday with winds gusting up to 50 mph, temps in the 30s and wind chills in the 20s...

Bud Selig is saying the fans need a lot of notice to show up for a possible game tomorrow, so with the forecast the way ot is, there won't be any game on TUE, it'll be pushed back on WED...

So Cole Hamels may go a third start after all, in Game 7 if Game 7 is SAT...

Be interesting to see if there is a travel day or not for Game 6...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Wiretowire
This is how I cap MLB
Replies
30
Views
780
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
VirginiaCavs
Game 2 Mavericks vs. Celtics Preview Article
Replies
2
Views
392
Stew Baker
Stew Baker
VirginiaCavs
Friday and Saturday Picks Preview Article
Replies
0
Views
171
VirginiaCavs
VirginiaCavs
Wiretowire
MLB Friday 4/28
Replies
9
Views
541
Timh
Timh
VirginiaCavs
Game 3 ECF and WCF Preview Article
Replies
7
Views
312
VirginiaCavs
VirginiaCavs
Back
Top