How Is TB A -145 Series Fav, Yet Hamels Is Favored To Win Game 1?

Gorgolon Lives

Gorgolon Lives

The Reverend of CTG
I'm terrible at math, but someone needs to explain this for me. Hamels wins game 1. TB wins game 2. TB takes 2 in Philly? You're kidding right?
 
ya, definite value on Phillies in the series.. When you got two guys named Hamels and Lidge eating up a majority of the key innings?

I'll be large on the Phils for the series.. You are seeing it right IMO.
 
excuse me for making a dumb observation, but if TBY can beat Lester (who I consider to be as good as any Philly starter being thrown out there in this WS) twice, you're telling me they can't beat Hamels at least once? I don't believe it. They at least split his starts, and then Philly's starting pitching in comparison to TBY drops off quickly.
 
Throwback420 said:
Rays hammer Hamel the Camel.
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playoff baseball..

hard to see a situation where Hamels get hammered..:shake:

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 border=0><TBODY><TR class=colhead align=right><TD align=left>DATE</TD><TD align=left>OPP</TD><TD align=left>RESULT</TD><TD>IP</TD><TD>H</TD><TD>R</TD><TD>ER</TD><TD>HR</TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>SO</TD><TD>GB</TD><TD>FB</TD><TD>PIT</TD><TD>BF</TD><TD>GSc</TD><TD>DEC</TD><TD>REL</TD><TD>ERA*</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Oct 15</TD><TD align=left>@LAD</TD><TD align=left>W 5-1</TD><TD>7.0</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>104</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>65</TD><TD>W(2-0)</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>1.93</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Oct 9</TD><TD align=left>LAD</TD><TD align=left>W 3-2</TD><TD>7.0</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>105</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>63</TD><TD>W(1-0)</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>2.57</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Oct 1</TD><TD align=left>MIL</TD><TD align=left>W 3-1</TD><TD>8.0</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>101</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>W(1-0)</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>0.00</TD></TR><TR class="evenrow bi" align=right><TD align=left colSpan=3>Monthly Totals</TD><TD>22.0</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>310</TD><TD>82</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>3-0</TD><TD>0 sv</TD><TD>1.23</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Don't forget, this is the World Series, and an American League team, not a Senior Circuit game.

Also, you've seen what the long layoff has done to teams.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
excuse me for making a dumb observation, but if TBY can beat Lester (who I consider to be as good as any Philly starter being thrown out there in this WS) twice, you're telling me they can't beat Hamels at least once? I don't believe it. They at least split his starts, and then Philly's starting pitching in comparison to TBY drops off quickly.
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Hamel is much better IMO than Lester... Totally different pitchers.. A dominant changeup is the key esp vs young bats who haven't seen it before... Just my opinion..
 
However you rate Hamels, Philly doesnt win this series unless Hamels starts at least fall 2-0 in their favour IMO. And even then they're no guaranteed, but would be odds favourites to win in my mind if they managed such a feat. I simply don't think that feat is going to transpire.
 
I've followed the Rays closely especially this year towards the end of the season/into the playoffs...and I think Hamels is the ONLY guy on the Philly staff that can give them problems...

Hamels has been so dominant with that changeup outside and low that I see a lotttt of early impatient swings early in the game from the Rays...however, if I remember correctly, lefties hit that changeup SOMEWHAT well...right? If thats the case, and Hamels can make a mistake or two to one of the lefties it could be a 3-2 type win in favor of the Rays...I don't really see them going 4-5 on Hamels, 2-3 max off a mistake, maybe get a run or two off Madson in the 8th, Lidge COULD present problems with that nasty slider but other than that whats he got? (Ok, I know he has other pitches, but nothing the hitters can't handle)

I'm rambling a bit now, but I do like the Rays in 5-6 (Hoping for 6 so they win at home, wouldn't mind 5 though either so Philly fans have to watch the Rays win lmao)

One thing that scares me is all these guys on ESPN picking the Rays too...but really, I just think they're the much much much more dominant team, in almost every aspect except the pen...and with Price now? Price has better stuff than any pitcher on the Rays, and he can come out at any time now and shut down a team for an inning or two

My god I like them, but I'd take Philly for the Series if I wanted to bet Philly game one (getting back to your why are the Rays -145 statement) cause then you can get Rays +125 or better possibly if they lose
 
what did Lidge do vs the AL in the All Star game? he's the reason Philly doesnt have HFA here, because the AL was about to use an arm from their batting order to pitch in the next inning. Instead he joined the ranks of Billy Wagner & Trevor Hoffman as fucks who screwed the NL over in recent seasons.

What did he do vs the WSox in the 05 WS? he lost game's 2 & 4

Lidge is still that Lidge, the guy who got killed by Pujols when as easy win was before him in that NLCS. He aint no Mo or Paps. Reg. season save numbers mean little, just ask K-Rod about what happened vs Boston.

Predicition - Lidge will blow a Hamels start, and it'll cost Philly the WS.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
what did Lidge do vs the AL in the All Star game? he's the reason Philly doesnt have HFA here, because the AL was about to use an arm from their batting order to pitch in the next inning. Instead he joined the ranks of Billy Wagner & Trevor Hoffman as fucks who screwed the NL over in recent seasons.

What did he do vs the WSox in the 05 WS? he lost game's 2 & 4

Lidge is still that Lidge, the guy who got killed by Pujols when as easy win was before him in that NLCS. He aint no Mo or Paps. Reg. season save numbers mean little, just ask K-Rod about what happened vs Boston.

Predicition - Lidge will blow a Hamels start, and it'll cost Philly the WS.
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BC-We're going to have to disagree. You do remember that Clint Hurdle had Lidge throw WAY more warmup pitches than any pitcher in that position should have to throw. I don't see how you can read anything into that All Star performance as it relates to this series.

Lidge is damn good, not as good as the 41/41 but easily one of the best in MLB. There are reasons to like Tampa Bay in this series but I fail to see why Brad Lidge as the Phillies closer is one of them.

That's not to say he won't blow a game in this series. It could happen but so could a lot of other things. Steve Phillips reasoned that Lidge not blowing a save was why the Dodgers would win the series simply because he was 'due'. Phillies won in 5.

The closer who pitches one inning seems to be a ridiculous reason to take one side or another in a seven game series. Does anyone really believe that the Phillies odds of winning would be better if Lidge had blown a save somewhere?

And in all honesty, not having the homefield with the 2-3-2 format is preferred. In a seven game series, the most important are the middle three and I'd rather have them at home.
 
TB has long been favs to win the WS and believe books have tipped there hand since day 1 on who they prefer . Last series Bos was -130 but didnt have home field and was lesser odds to win the WS then TB . So how is the team expected to lose in the ALCS based on the series price a better fav to win the WS then its fabored opponent ?

TB passed the crucial test defeating Boston . David Price will be an x factor in the WS and TB has proved themselves every step off the way including when Longoria and Crawford were absent .

So why is Philly a slight fav ? Simply Cole Hamels has been very good this playoff season and Kaz unpredictable . Also Kaz a 6 inn SP as well .

TB series here . AL much stronger then NL based on IL play and think TB beats them at just about every area ......

TB in game 1 especially 1st 5 inn but most importantly the series .....

I'll go ob record saying I would be shocked if TB does not win the WS....and beliebe somewhere in Cap's LCS thread I told him unfortunately I expect a TB vs Philly WS .....:cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
Hamel is much better IMO than Lester... Totally different pitchers.. A dominant changeup is the key esp vs young bats who haven't seen it before... Just my opinion..
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Strongly disagree think they are pretty equal but the fact Lester faces AL lineups is a huge plus. There are simply no teams as bad as SD snd Wash offensively in the AL and ATL was pretty weak after the deal and the injuries. SF ?

Hamels allowed 28 Hrs because he hangs alot of changeups and he was fortubate to face a skumping Milw lineup and LAD lineup ill suited to face a LHSP witj Kemt hurt , Kemp and Martin struggling and Nomar not realy healthy .

Hamels 9 runs in 21 IL inns vs very good AL lineups but also 4 hrs.

As mentioned he has issues with LH because of the changeup as they hit 262

TB 57-19 L76 at home

Philly 17-36 L53 IL games and 6-17 away L23 IL

Think Phillies issues vs Ollie Perez are why Kaz does well vs them, :cheers:



 
Steve Phillips reasoned that Lidge not blowing a save was why the Dodgers would win the series simply because he was 'due'. Phillies won in 5.
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LA's lineup blows goats, and LA is an NL Weak team. Tampa is from the toughest division in baseball. Lidge is a weak link IMO.

As for the importance of closers, the Angels could well be playing in this WS if KRod hadn't murdered their Game 2 effort vs Boston. I'd take any of the options from Tampa's pen before Lidge - it isn't about stats, it's about fundamentally not trusting Lidge.
 
totally agree, got that sense that Lidge gonna come in and give up that 3-run bomb like he did vs Pujols a few years back... old brad from them houston days
 
How can you say Lidge is a weak link? he hasn't blown a save all year. I'm an Astros fan, so I do know about Lidge...yes he gave up that huge homerun to Pujols, but Lidge is solid. He definitly gives the Phillies in advantage in the bullpen category
 
Few quick points (running low on time).

Phils fans/backers (seriously not to be a dick) but LAD and Mil are terrible. Sorry Mil and LAD backers. LAD had zero pitching aside from maybe Lowe and Billingsley choked in the playoffs after a good year. Their lineup wouldn't scare a mouse. Manny did help but they have old ass Kent still playing. Enough said. Mil had a semi scary lineup and CC and that is about where it ends. Santos sucked as closer and Sheets got hurt late in the season/postseason.

Now I'm not saying Phil is a crap team. No way but there is a difference in competition between both leagues. It would be interesting to see what Phil would have done against BOS or LAA. Not saying they would get their ass beat but it wouldn't be as easy as LAD or MIL. I agree that Hamels is the key. If TB wins one game off him (and it will happen) then Phil could be in trouble. GL either way Phil backers.
 
The Dodgers and Brewers were both better than the White Sox and who knows how good the Red Sox were? Everyone was hurt
 
I think the layoff wasn't great for Philly, except to get Hamels ready for game 1.

The biggest advantage IMO is the Phils pen....Lidge is a rock and that Tampa pen (besides Howell/Price who will K Howard about 10 times)....is garbage!

Wheeler will blow at least 1 game if not 2.
 
Smokedawg said:
The Dodgers and Brewers were both better than the White Sox and who knows how good the Red Sox were? Everyone was hurt
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Could be correct, but the AL was hands down much tougher league then the NL no disputing that.

It will be interesting to see how both teams come out in game 1, will philly be rusty and off the mark from the layoff? Could tampa come out flat after their long 7 game series with the sox now that they are in the world series?
 
TailBait said:
How can you say Lidge is a weak link? he hasn't blown a save all year. I'm an Astros fan, so I do know about Lidge...yes he gave up that huge homerun to Pujols, but Lidge is solid. He definitly gives the Phillies in advantage in the bullpen category
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Huge stros fan here - don't think I'll ever recover from that Pujols bomb, as I was living in STL at the time.:hang:
 
Streakin said:
Huge stros fan here - don't think I'll ever recover from that Pujols bomb, as I was living in STL at the time.:hang:
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It's the most overrated home run in baseball history. Not the home run itself which was unbelievably majestic but the impact of the home run. The Astros handled their business and won the series. Ultimately the Pujols home run was nothing more than a ball that never landed.
 
I think some of you are reading too much into the numbers from vegas, whereas you need to focus on the actual matchups themselves.

Lets take your rationalization that vegas is trying to price people out of taking TB, because they think tampa is going to win. Tampa is -150...

So why were the lakers -180 to -200 for the NBA finals? They didnt win, and most of the sharps and smart money bettors were pretty sure they werent going to.
If you came on here, you saw most of the people who profited through the NBA season and the more successfull cappers all had boston.

But the lakers were -200, so does that mean vegas priced LA high because they thought LA was going to win? Obviously not

The same thing applies here. Stop trying to second guess yourselves and stop worrying about what vegas is thinking, and more on the pitching/hitting/game-by-game/manager/home-away matchups or whatever you use to cap games, IMO
 
I am sorry anyone who thinks any NL playoff team is better then what the AL offered is smoking way to much high potent herb. The LAD are good why ? Manny Ramirez saved there season . Without him they arent even in the playoffs . Cubs I said all season long were flawed offensively because they were to RH and were going to struggle vs good RHPs . Look at how they struggled down the stretch vs good RHPs. Enter LAD who had some "hot" RHPs in Lowe and Kuroda . Milw are you serious ?? They had 1 good SP in CC and he was burned out pitching every 3 days for near a month . That lineup is a joke Ryan Braun and Price Fiedler then what else ? JJ Hardy ? Solid player but thats quite a dropoff ...

the NL got smoked in IL for good reason because they are weaker and TB wins this series.

As for overthingking thing Cap . If it's my comments that are part of yor reply I can only tell you that I always do well seeing on what futures market expect . Could I be wrong ? Sure but so far hit all 4 series plays even though I chickened out on TB in game 7 and played Boston. I should have stuck to my guns . If you dont think futures tell a story well TB was still -300 vs Boston heading into game 5 . You think books are gonna offer Boston at +275 when they were -130 to open the series with Beckett and Lester dealing the last 2 ? I said Philly was the obvous play in the NCLS with them opening up LAD as favs and watching everyone beat them down yet the futures market had Phillies more likely to win the WS then LAD.....

I am far from infallable but since Day 1 TB has been very strongly adjusted in the futures market . The difference with the NBA Finals is Boston has the whole road issue to factor in and LAL is a very public team . LAL had walked through the NBA playoffs while Boston didnt look like it was handling weak teams like ATL in the road ...Perception . You think TB has a public backing ???

TB wins in 4 or 6 games. Most likely 6 games but I will try the exact game prop since I can get +850 for the sweep and +330 for a win in 6 games .

Layoff hurts Philly alot in Game 1 having to face a good stuff SP like Kazmir .

I kinda laughed at 1st when ATP said TB would be in the WS then I looked at it and if we could find that thread said its actually something that could happen and looks like boks expect to happen. Have to find that thread ......

Good Luck fellas ....

TB ML Game 1 and Series -150 (Probably 1unit On +330 to win in 6 and some sort of shot +850 to sweep ....the SP is crazy one sided to TB...
 
Your Answer------------>

Vegas odds favor Rays to win Series over Phillies

By OSKAR GARCIA, Associated Press Writer Oct 20, 4:36 pm EDT

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LAS VEGAS (AP)—Las Vegas sports books favor the Tampa Bay Rays to win the World Series over the Philadelphia Phillies and would owe huge payouts if the American League champions prevail.
Oddsmakers say enough bettors took the Rays early in the year at long-shot prices to force books to adjust lines to encourage bets on the Phillies.
Sean Van Patten at Las Vegas Sports Consultants says the Rays are favored at minus-$1.35, meaning a gambler would need to bet $1.35 to be paid $1 if Tampa Bay wins.
Van Patten puts the Phillies at plus-$1.15, meaning a $1 bet would earn $1.15 if Philadelphia wins.
“What we’re also trying to protect here is even more Tampa Bay money coming in,” Van Patten said. “What we’re trying to do is maybe get a little buyback on the Phillies.”

Las Vegas Hilton race and sports book director Jay Kornegay says before the start of the season the Rays were a 200-1 shot for the title.
“It’s a significant number for a futures book, but it’s nothing that’s going to shut down the book or anything,” Kornegay told The Associated Press. “It might dim the lights.”
Kornegay would not specify how much the Hilton sports book stood to lose if the Phillies win, but said other sports books offered even longer odds on the Rays winning a championship.
The Rays were slightly pricier at the Hilton at minus-$1.40, with the Phillies at plus-$1.20, Kornegay said.
The situation sports books are facing with the Rays is similar to 1991, when sports books lost millions of dollars on futures bets because of the Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins, Kornegay said. Both teams rebounded from last-place showings the year before to reach the World Series. Minnesota won the series in seven games.
“We have learned our lesson that we don’t open these teams at 500-1 until the season starts and we realize what they have and what kind of team they have,” Kornegay said. “This year, I’m going to guess it’s probably in the millions range if you accumulate all the liability across the state.”
The Rays were heavy underdogs in the American League East mainly because of high expectations for the Boston Red Sox, which swept the Colorado Rockies in the 2007 World Series, and the New York Yankees.
 
CapTwo said:
I think some of you are reading too much into the numbers from vegas, whereas you need to focus on the actual matchups themselves.

Lets take your rationalization that vegas is trying to price people out of taking TB, because they think tampa is going to win. Tampa is -150...

So why were the lakers -180 to -200 for the NBA finals? They didnt win, and most of the sharps and smart money bettors were pretty sure they werent going to.
If you came on here, you saw most of the people who profited through the NBA season and the more successfull cappers all had boston.

But the lakers were -200, so does that mean vegas priced LA high because they thought LA was going to win? Obviously not

The same thing applies here. Stop trying to second guess yourselves and stop worrying about what vegas is thinking, and more on the pitching/hitting/game-by-game/manager/home-away matchups or whatever you use to cap games, IMO
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Since I know nothing about baseball, but do know the exact scenerio CAP is speaking about in this years NBA playoffs, and the fact that Philly is favored in game 1 has to bring up some questions.
 
Marlo Stanfield said:
Since I know nothing about baseball, but do know the exact scenerio CAP is speaking about in this years NBA playoffs, and the fact that Philly is favored in game 1 has to bring up some questions.
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:shake:

I should have been more objective about how i said it towards the end though, just re-read and looked like an asshole.

Im not telling anyone how to cap there games, it kind of sounded like that, was just trying to say its like studying for an exam but only reading over the lecture notes but not the text.

its always great to try to see where they stand by the line they give us but this is the WS. its going to be some sharp assed tight line no reason trying to read too much into it, better to look at the stats/matchups/trends

just my opinion though:cheers:
 
MusicCityGambler said:
It's the most overrated home run in baseball history. Not the home run itself which was unbelievably majestic but the impact of the home run. The Astros handled their business and won the series. Ultimately the Pujols home run was nothing more than a ball that never landed.
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And Lidge has done very well against Pujols in his career.. But that homerun was the beginning of his end in Houston..

Having said that I TOTALLY disagree that Lidge is a weak link.. Best closer in baseball at this point in time.. 41/41..Come on
 
MusicCityGambler said:
It's the most overrated home run in baseball history. Not the home run itself which was unbelievably majestic but the impact of the home run. The Astros handled their business and won the series. Ultimately the Pujols home run was nothing more than a ball that never landed.
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Maybe to you, but it was the END of him in Houston - that is all I am saying, and believe me, I realize that the stros won the series - does not mean it wasn't a big home run. took Lidge a while to recover

You going to the MNF game Music?
 
aplous said:
I think the layoff wasn't great for Philly, except to get Hamels ready for game 1.

The biggest advantage IMO is the Phils pen....Lidge is a rock and that Tampa pen (besides Howell/Price who will K Howard about 10 times)....is garbage!

Wheeler will blow at least 1 game if not 2.
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It's a bit odd that people think there is such a huge discrepancy in the pens. With Bradford, Balfour, Howell and Price - the TB pen is not the same stinker of a pen they had at the start of the year. Two lefties, two righties - nice balance with these four that I consider the keys. Certainly outside of Lidge, a case could be made that the Tampa pen is even better than that of Philly. Check the stats and check the competition these teams face.

Lidge has been great, but he was also great in 2005(2.29 w/ 42 saves) and got to the playoffs and promptly lost 3 games. I hate to break it to those who don't understand, but more times than not the ball won't pass from 8 scoreless innings into Lidge's hands; and the guys in between are good, but no more so than what TB has out there. TB had a couple of bullpen explosions recently and the public is rightfully hesitant to endorse this group of guys. However, they are certainly as capable, if not more capable than Philly as a unit.
 
TB pen is a good matchup for this phills lineup.

Lot of power and very good fastball hitters, and the majority of that pen throws strictly fastballs and lack secondary pitches. especially wheeler and balfour

Howell is young, still not sure what youre going to get out of price although hes been clutch so far, and bradford is tough to hit but has been in the league awhile and certain batters hit him well
 
I read awhile back @ Blankets that books were flooded with future bets early on the Rays . Who do you think was making those bets ? Recreational bettors or pro bettors seeing an edge ??? Think its one of those ask the linesmakers segments see if at some point I can find it .......
 
Which was point earlier BTW. The fact there needs to be articles written to explain why TB is favored just tells you about the perception heading in. The AL had to be favored about -150 IMO in the WS and wish I paid attention to what the futures markets had previously shown late in the year ......

I think whats wrong in that article though is the futures tickets written at the beginning of the playoffs are actually what the books are worried about as they probably took hit with the ALCS tickets they wrote which they tried to offset IMO my making Boston -130 in the series thinking that was going to be the side to get heavier action . Making TB anything higher then +110 would have probably invited more sharp money though and maybe discouraged soem Boston action.....
 
Big Herm said:
It's a bit odd that people think there is such a huge discrepancy in the pens. With Bradford, Balfour, Howell and Price - the TB pen is not the same stinker of a pen they had at the start of the year. Two lefties, two righties - nice balance with these four that I consider the keys. Certainly outside of Lidge, a case could be made that the Tampa pen is even better than that of Philly. Check the stats and check the competition these teams face.

Lidge has been great, but he was also great in 2005(2.29 w/ 42 saves) and got to the playoffs and promptly lost 3 games. I hate to break it to those who don't understand, but more times than not the ball won't pass from 8 scoreless innings into Lidge's hands; and the guys in between are good, but no more so than what TB has out there. TB had a couple of bullpen explosions recently and the public is rightfully hesitant to endorse this group of guys. However, they are certainly as capable, if not more capable than Philly as a unit.
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Wow !!!! People actually think Phillies pen is better then TB ?? What are people using as reference ? A couple rough spots vs Boston ?? They had 3 guys who held opponents BAA to below 200 with I believe at least 1 K per inning avgs . While Lidge has been excellent and Madson turned it up a notch in the playoffs from what I recall. TB PEN is head and shoulders BETTER then Philly . Balfour has struggled the most IMO and if that continues presents a good matchup possibly for Philly but are Phillies LH that much better or any better then Boston's ? tough to match up Utley with a comparable LH but think Boston gets them at most other spots with Rollins being somewhat tough as well as a SWH to compare ....

I gotta get more involved here I think not having really read many posts.

TB pitching is SIGNIFICANTLY better then Phillies from top to bottom . Phillies #2 SP Myers is about as good as TB's #4 Sonnastine (and Myers has to picth on the road where he is weakest vs Shields at home wher ehe is strongest ). Mix in Kazmir having the ability to be as good as Hamels on a given night . Willie Aybar the best role player on either team smokes LHP.


TB has avery good chance of winning game 1 ....

:shake:I'll give Philly the closer's spot but Lidge always puts doubt in one's mind and the more he succeeds the more likely his chances are he fails at the most crucial time like CC Sabathia did. I am with herm here ....
 
I was discussing this series with a guy I work with today that bets bases alot.

He told me he read an article on Monday about how Vegas set the Phillies as a dog, to entice people to bet on them. He said there were quite a few people that bet the Rays to win the WS this year early, and then again through out the year.

Just what he told me what he read, don't know if this means anything to you guys.
 
Sounds about right. I initially was ready to give the edge to Philly, but am not even sure. I do think there is something to be said for the veteran presence on the Phils and if anything tilts the scales in their favor, that would be it. They're older and more experienced and both Lidge and Romero have more than a little post season experience. From a talent and numbers standpoint though, TB is more complete.
 
Nut - Youre a mets fan arent you?

because thats about the only thing that would explain the complete lack of respect you have for the phillies
 
I think the series odds reflect the fact this is going to be a competitive series. Tampa's "fault-line" efforts in games 1, 5 & 6 vs Boston proved they aren't going to monster through Philly.


However, there is one long standing stat that is squarely in Tampa's favour:

Since the Championship Series of the playoffs was extended from 5 to 7 games (1985), there has been 8 instances of one league's team having played at least 2 more championship games to make the WS than what their WS opponent from the opposite league required in their own championship series (ie, one team needed 7 games (4-3 win) to the other teams 4 games (4-0 sweep) - a difference of 3 games).

Of those 8 instances

- 4 times the team that played the extra 2+ games has won the WS

- 3 times the team that played 2+ games less that then won the WS was an AL team.

- only 1 time the team playing 2+ games less that then won the WS was an NL team, and the nature of that team? the 1995 Atlanta Braves, a team making their 3rd WS in 4 seasons, and who'd also go on to make the WS the next season for 4 appearances in 5 straight WS.

In other words, the only NL team to win a WS when playing at least 2 Championship Series games less then their AL WS opponent since the CS has been played over the best of 7 format, was one of those team-for-the-ages (how many teams have ever made the WS 4 times in 5 seasons? simply not a regular occurrence).

The point of the above? Tampa had to play 7 Championship series games vs Boston, while Philly had to play 5 vs LA: 7 - 5 = a 2 game difference.

Question: Since Philly isn't an AL team, are they an NL team for the ages?
 
for those interested in the results when there was 1 Championship game difference (which I didn't incl. above because the diff. between TBY & Philly this year wasn't that low, so I didn't see as applicable), there has been 6 instances of a 1 game difference, of which 4 times the team that played the 1 game less won the WS anyway; again, 3 times an AL team to 1 NL team. Overcoming a CS games played deficit in the WS falls percentage wise squarely on team being from the AL, the stronger league.
 
I'm still not understanding this reasoning that Marlo's coworker and another poster said on pg 1.

If the books do not want Tampa money, wouldn't they make them -175 rather than -135? This way if the Phils win, then the Tampa backers are losing almost 2-to-1. If the books think Tampa wins, then raise the price so that you will not get as much action on them.

Am I making no sense?
 
One of the local sportsbook managers said that they are trying to get as much money as possible on the phillies side because they are going to get destroyed on world series futures if tampa wins this thing.

i find it hard to believe but just passing it along.... as if the world series handle wont dwarf the futures .... but who knows.
 
Streakin said:
Maybe to you, but it was the END of him in Houston - that is all I am saying, and believe me, I realize that the stros won the series - does not mean it wasn't a big home run. took Lidge a while to recover

You going to the MNF game Music?
Click to expand...

Yep, I'll be there. I've got a friend working on tickets, if he can't come through I'll happily pay 100 so I don't have to listen to Tony Kornheiser complain about a team in a small market being the best or among the best teams in the league or listen to him being shocked about the Titans being great while forgetting they were a playoff team last year. I'm sure the broadcast will go something like that and it pisses me off that these guys know so little about the sport they get paid to follow.

I see the significance for Lidge but in the grand scheme of things that HR still gets too much play IMO.
 
I see the significance for Lidge but in the grand scheme of things that HR still gets too much play IMO.
Click to expand...

I'd agree, in the context of the amount of play it gets in relation to the lack of play his 2 losses in the subsequent WS get, which is all but nothing. Houston could've been 2-2 after 4 games vs the White Sox instead of being swept, but for Lidge.
 
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