Houston @ Tulane Discussion

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Let's isolate this game for tomorrow night and get some thoughts all into one thread. Please indicate line you played if referencing potential plays. Anyways, starting to see more and more opinions on this. I think it could be a fascinating game.
 
I’m on Tulane -3. Big game for them and I like their defense to get more stops than Houston.

Tulane’s offense will be class relief for Houston’s defense but they’re a little more explosive and open than they have been in recent years at 6.3 ypp. They won’t be mistaken for Oklahoma but have more skill on the outside than they’ve had and McMillian should be able to distribute.

I don’t think Tulane’s defensive front is the same step down for Houston’s offense as what they’ll see on the other side, and that’s if it’s a step down at all.

Tulane probably can’t win a total shootout if they let King get out of control, but I think they’ll be fine as long as they don’t need more than 35 or so. They’ve been really efficient outside of the Auburn game and we know Houston doesn’t compare to that front at all.
 
I would take Houston plus pts but think Tulane wins. I'm over Tulane win total so maybe betting Houston is a hedge. Houston was -3 GOY FWIW and I'm not sure the movement to current is justified. Tulane is a good team, this we knew last month. Houston played 2 tough P5 teams they would likely lose, this we knew last month. So why the 8.5 pt move?
 
Really comes down to whether the Houston Oline can block Tulane or not, and whether, if given the chance, King can hit open receivers. If so, Houston should be fine ... if not, the better defense will eventually make the needed play. i think the total might be a tad high but I could see that going a lot of different ways too. I think Houston has advantages outside that could lead to big plays and the Houston defense seems quite capable of giving up big chunk plays so far this year. So while i like the pace and matchups on most plays to favor an under at this number, there is also the potential for a shootout in this one too.

I took 4.5 thinking it wouldn't see 6 and not being too concerned about the game landing 5 if it upticked. It upticked right after I made my bet (the bookies rightfully move the line expecting me to be on the wrong side) and I am a tad worried that it could move upward still.

Good backdoor cover offense for Houston if needed.

King has played bad. He will have to play more like last year to get the job done in this one. Would think the more he learns willie wonka, the better he gets. ... that goes for the team in general.
 
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