HHM - NASCAR (2026)

He Hate Me said:
Reddick is -130 to -160 now, but i still do not understand why he is not at least at Bell who is -170 to -200.

Next Gen at COTA. Reddick is the 45 all the way in the far right corner:

View attachment 108451

Next Gen road courses, Reddick is only second to SVG who is in his own stratosphere:

View attachment 108450

Did I mention that Reddick is the hottest driver in the Cup Series who has won the first 2 races?
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Also of note, Busch and Bowman are fringe Top 10 on any road course but both are better at COTA for some reason. Bowman made comments about why he is better at COTA in the past.

Chastain is usually in the back 1/2 of the Top 10 but is also better at COTA.

The next gen COTA stats are only 3 races, so there may be some variability with Chastain and Busch, but I believe Bowman is just better here.

The next gen road course stats are over 17 races (I think) so the results are less variable.
 
Added these for the O'REILLY'S Series race:

0.25 unit:
Sawalich -105 over Caruth (BetUS)
Chastain -115 over Creed (DK)

0.1 unit:
Sawalich Top 5 +1000 (Bet365)
 
I added these:

0.5 unit:
Elliott -115 over Larson (CZRS). I now have one unit on this. I doubt the odds will be better after qualifying.

Zilisch Top 3 +125 (ESPN). I wanna bet something on Zilisch and this pre-qualifying is probably the only chance I will have.
 
Added these for the O'REILLY'S race today:

0.25 unit:
Chastain -120 over Gray (BetUS)
Jones -115 over Jeb Burton (BetUS)

ESPN had Top 10s up but took them down as I was looking at them.
 
My COTA bets in one place:

Cup:

3.5 units:
Reddick Top 10 -120 (DK & BetUS)

1 unit:
Elliott -115 over Larson (Bovada & CZRS)

0.5 unit:
Busch Top 10 +200 (Bovada)
Bowman Top 10 +150 (Bet365)
Buescher Top 10 +150 (Bet365)
Zilisch Top 3 +125 (ESPN)

0.25 unit:
Gilliland to win Group G +230 over JHN, Zane Smith, and Keselowski (CZRS)
I also bet on SVG -190 over Zilisch at DK and Zilisch +255 over SVG at Bet365 for a +0.25 unit outcome regardless of the result

O'REILLY'S Series race:

0.5 unit:
Austin Green Top 10 +125 (ESPN)

0.25 unit:
Kvapil Top 10 +125 (ESPN)
Sawalich -105 over Caruth (BetUS)
Chastain -115 over Creed (DK) Chastain had an issue in qualifying and Creed was faster then expected so you can get this around even now
Chastain -120 over Gray (BetUS)
Jones -115 over Jeb Burton (BetUS)

0.1 unit:
Sawalich Top 5 +1000 (Bet365)
 
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Cup practice observations:

The Toyota cars are not fast.
Reddick is the best Toyota and looks good on the longer runs. I do not expect him to qualify well, maybe fringe Top 10, but could be 10-15 range. His Top 10 odds had moved to -150 to -200, but you may be able to get his Top 10 closer to -120 after qualifying.

Blaney is fast.

As usual, Buescher is not fast in practice and I expect him to qualify around 20th or so, so his Top 10 which is currently even to -120 should get back to the +150 I bet earlier.

Gilliland looks good and he is better than average at COTA. I bet him in that Group because JHN sucks at road courses and Keselowski does too and Kes is hurt.

Chastain looks good.

McDowell looks good, but he has gotten worse at road courses over the years. His falloff in practice was a lot.

Allmendinger looks good and I would like a matchup with him against McDowell.
 
Busch wheel hopped in qualifying and went off the tract. He came back on the tract for another lap but only qualified 13th in the first group, which will put him in the high 20s in starting position. His Top 10 odds will be more than the good +200 number I bet.

Zilisch did not qualify well, P10 in the first group puts him in the 20s.

Gilliland qualified well, P7 in the first group.
 
CPA-hole said:
Weird qualifying. Chastain significantly outran his more fancied teammates in Zilisch and SVG.
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Yeah and my Zilisch Top 3 bet looks dumb now.

Chastain runs well at COTA and better on road courses than you think. He is also benefitting from his teammates being so good at road courses. I am surprised that he outran both his teammates and that he is on the front row, but I assumed he would qualify in the Top 10.

I think that SVG is set up more for the longer runs with the higher tire wear tire, but it is concerning that he did not let it all hang out in qualifying like Reddick did. It seemed like SVG was giving it all that he could. It will be interesting to see what SVG Top 3 and Top 5 will be now.

In an interview between practice and qualifying Reddick said they were more set up for the long run, so it was on his shoulders to throw down a good lap which he did.

I am more worried about ZIlisch.
 
He Hate Me said:
My COTA bets in one place:

Cup:

3.5 units:
Reddick Top 10 -120 (DK & BetUS)

1 unit:
Elliott -115 over Larson (Bovada & CZRS)

0.5 unit:
Busch Top 10 +200 (Bovada)
Bowman Top 10 +150 (Bet365)
Buescher Top 10 +150 (Bet365)
Zilisch Top 3 +125 (ESPN)

0.25 unit:
Gilliland to win Group G +230 over JHN, Zane Smith, and Keselowski (CZRS)
I also bet on SVG -190 over Zilisch at DK and Zilisch +255 over SVG at Bet365 for a +0.25 unit outcome regardless of the result

O'REILLY'S Series race:

0.5 unit:
Austin Green Top 10 +125 (ESPN)

0.25 unit:
Kvapil Top 10 +125 (ESPN)
Sawalich -105 over Caruth (BetUS)
Chastain -115 over Creed (DK) Chastain had an issue in qualifying and Creed was faster then expected so you can get this around even now
Chastain -120 over Gray (BetUS)
Jones -115 over Jeb Burton (BetUS)

0.1 unit:
Sawalich Top 5 +1000 (Bet365)
Click to expand...
O'Reilly's Series COTA -0.1 unit

Gonna bet Sawalich at road courses again. He damaged his car on the first lap and still drove it to a 7th place finish.
 
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