RambleOn
The Law of Winning
On 11/5, (4-4) Southern Miss travels to (1-7) Memphis in a Sunday night CUSA showdown. I wanted to get this discussion started early because I really like S.Miss in this one.
First, let's look at Southern's season:
At first glance, their 4-4 record doesn't seem too bad, considering they've played the 47th hardest schedule this year. At 2-5 ATS, this looks like a very weak team, but this record is deceiving. Let's take a look:
* First road game is at Florida, missing the cover by only 5 points. Knowing what Florida has gone on to do, I'd say this is not that bad of an ATS loss.
*Next two homes games, 2 blowout wins. One against Southeastern Louisianna 45-0, and the other against NC State, 37-17 as a -3 pt. favorite. Okay, so they can score.
*Now a road game, at Central Fla, they get an ATS loss. But wait a second, they are -6 favorites on the road and win it by just 5. Not too bad there.
*Next game, a 6-20 loss at now (7-1)Tulsa, a team argumentively only about 8-10 spots out of top 25 contention.
*Back at home again, and get a good ATS win against (6-3)Houston, whom is hard to stop offensively.
*Back on the road again, and another ATS loss, but at VA Tech, a very very tough opponent.
*Finally, their last game, another ATS loss as -5.5 point favorites against East Carolina (who by the way beat Memphis at ECU by 15). This game was tied at halftime, with both teams having 10 points. Southern scored early in the first half, and led 17-10 until :13 seconds in the 4th quarter, when ECU forced overtime with a 2 yard touchdown drive. ECU went on to win by a FG in overtime. Southern's problem in this game? Oh, probably going 1-11 on third down conversions. Not gonna happen anytime soon again, I don't think.
Southern seems like they have played to expectations, getting some good wins and losing ones that they were expected to lose.
Now what about Memphis?
I looked for something good here, and couldn't find it.
* They are listed as 1-5-1, against the spread, but this should actually be 0-5-2, which looks a lot worse. I know because the line on Memphis/Ole Miss was Ole Miss -2.5/-3 at the most. I know it hit 3.5 for a short time Saturday morning, but for all intents and purposes, Memphis pushed that game. And that was a lucky push, at that. Down 11, they drove the field on a couple big plays, scoring a TD and then getting the 2 pt conversion after a botched job of coverage by Ole Miss.
* Memphis's one win was at home against Tennessee Chattanooga. I checked into that game - both teams controled the ball for exactly 30 minutes. It was simply that Memphis hit the big plays, averaging 10.3 per pass play. Still, Tenn Chatt racked up 14 points.
*Power Ratings are in strong opposition in this game. The Sagarin Ratings show Southern Miss as almost 13 points stronger than Memphis, while Keeper's says that Memphis should be the favorite in this game. Well I don't buy that Memphis should be the favorite for a minute.
*History between these teams shows a 9-2 ATS edge to Southern Miss, with an 8-3 ATS edge to the favorite. Coupled with the fact that Memphis beat Southern straight up last year, Southern will be playing with some revenge. And after getting a beating at VA Tech, and losing a horrible game to ECU which they could and should have won, Southern Miss will be ready to take this one to the house. I'm seeing S.Miss in a romp here.
EDIT: Another important point which I forgot to mention. Southern Miss is playing for bowl eligibility here. A win here would make them 5-4, and a win at either Tulane or Marshall, or a home win over UAB (which should happen) will make them bowl eligible. Memphis is playing with no motivation, no momentum, its time for them to throw in the towel!!!!!
1 unit on S.Miss -7, and more waiting on this line to climb.
Let me know what y'all think. :shake:
First, let's look at Southern's season:
At first glance, their 4-4 record doesn't seem too bad, considering they've played the 47th hardest schedule this year. At 2-5 ATS, this looks like a very weak team, but this record is deceiving. Let's take a look:
* First road game is at Florida, missing the cover by only 5 points. Knowing what Florida has gone on to do, I'd say this is not that bad of an ATS loss.
*Next two homes games, 2 blowout wins. One against Southeastern Louisianna 45-0, and the other against NC State, 37-17 as a -3 pt. favorite. Okay, so they can score.
*Now a road game, at Central Fla, they get an ATS loss. But wait a second, they are -6 favorites on the road and win it by just 5. Not too bad there.
*Next game, a 6-20 loss at now (7-1)Tulsa, a team argumentively only about 8-10 spots out of top 25 contention.
*Back at home again, and get a good ATS win against (6-3)Houston, whom is hard to stop offensively.
*Back on the road again, and another ATS loss, but at VA Tech, a very very tough opponent.
*Finally, their last game, another ATS loss as -5.5 point favorites against East Carolina (who by the way beat Memphis at ECU by 15). This game was tied at halftime, with both teams having 10 points. Southern scored early in the first half, and led 17-10 until :13 seconds in the 4th quarter, when ECU forced overtime with a 2 yard touchdown drive. ECU went on to win by a FG in overtime. Southern's problem in this game? Oh, probably going 1-11 on third down conversions. Not gonna happen anytime soon again, I don't think.
Southern seems like they have played to expectations, getting some good wins and losing ones that they were expected to lose.
Now what about Memphis?
I looked for something good here, and couldn't find it.
* They are listed as 1-5-1, against the spread, but this should actually be 0-5-2, which looks a lot worse. I know because the line on Memphis/Ole Miss was Ole Miss -2.5/-3 at the most. I know it hit 3.5 for a short time Saturday morning, but for all intents and purposes, Memphis pushed that game. And that was a lucky push, at that. Down 11, they drove the field on a couple big plays, scoring a TD and then getting the 2 pt conversion after a botched job of coverage by Ole Miss.
* Memphis's one win was at home against Tennessee Chattanooga. I checked into that game - both teams controled the ball for exactly 30 minutes. It was simply that Memphis hit the big plays, averaging 10.3 per pass play. Still, Tenn Chatt racked up 14 points.
*Power Ratings are in strong opposition in this game. The Sagarin Ratings show Southern Miss as almost 13 points stronger than Memphis, while Keeper's says that Memphis should be the favorite in this game. Well I don't buy that Memphis should be the favorite for a minute.
*History between these teams shows a 9-2 ATS edge to Southern Miss, with an 8-3 ATS edge to the favorite. Coupled with the fact that Memphis beat Southern straight up last year, Southern will be playing with some revenge. And after getting a beating at VA Tech, and losing a horrible game to ECU which they could and should have won, Southern Miss will be ready to take this one to the house. I'm seeing S.Miss in a romp here.
EDIT: Another important point which I forgot to mention. Southern Miss is playing for bowl eligibility here. A win here would make them 5-4, and a win at either Tulane or Marshall, or a home win over UAB (which should happen) will make them bowl eligible. Memphis is playing with no motivation, no momentum, its time for them to throw in the towel!!!!!
1 unit on S.Miss -7, and more waiting on this line to climb.
Let me know what y'all think. :shake:
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