Hawaii Vs Bama

Toyskyline

Toyskyline

Member
Well I know I'm probably gonna catch a lot of heat for what I'm about to say but oh well here goes. As of right now, I show Bama at -16 1/2 and to be honest I think thats too much. After looking at every aspect of this matchup, I have Hawaii winning straight up. Yes I know we're talking about a team that has a non existent defense but based on the changes they made from last year, I think that they should improve at least a little. As for Bama, they lost many key players in their defense and I think Hawaii can move the ball through the air. Alabama has only 1 returning starter in their secondary which is probably their biggest obstacle other than the fact that they lost about a half dozen guys total in their defense. On the flip side Hawaii has all their offensive weapons returning including:
-Colt Brennan...Even though he plays for Hawaii, he is definitely one of the best qb's in the nation.
-Davon Bess/Ryan Grice-Mullen...2,000+ yds receiving combined and 26 td's
-Jason Rivers...Back from his injury last year he should run accurate routes as the left wideout

Yeah I know that defense wins the game and I too believe that but only to a certain extent. Alabama's d will be better than Hawaii's and there is no disputing that. It boils down to offense and who can score more points. My score?
Offense
Hawaii A
Alabama B-
Defense
Hawaii C
Alabama B-
Special Teams
Hawaii C-
Alabama C+

Hawaii wins by 6
 
Toyskyline, there are a lot of cappers liking Hawaii from what I have read. My only drawback to playing on Hawaii is their dismal SU & ATS records playing games on the mainland.

Good luck to you, and
welcome.gif
 
Question here is Sooner...were most mainland ATS and SU losses early in the season or mid/late season? It seems to be a climate issue for the Hawaii boys and the earlier they head to the mainland, the better.

I will probably be on Hawaii as well...good luck toy
 
Toy,

Hawaii winning straight up in one of the most statically difficult stadiums in the country?...a cover? maybe, but not so sure about a straight up win...
 
MistaFlava said:
Question here is Sooner...were most mainland ATS and SU losses early in the season or mid/late season? It seems to be a climate issue for the Hawaii boys and the earlier they head to the mainland, the better.

I will probably be on Hawaii as well...good luck toy
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I don't think it's a climate issue at all. I think it has to do with the "jet lag" that takes place because of their long distance travels.
 
SoonerBS said:
I don't think it's a climate issue at all. I think it has to do with the "jet lag" that takes place because of their long distance travels.
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Thats the one I've heard the most but for whatever reason, I dont buy it. Could be partially inluential but playing in slightly cold weather probably makes these guys cringe a whole lot more. Who knows...
 
Just take the +17 if you can still get it and just worry about getting your bar stocked (makers mark, grey goose, patron, beefeater, some X.O. hennessy, along with plenty of soda, tonic water, and mixers, and lots of ice)
 
so far 144/207 picks on wagerline are on bama at -16. Yes thank the good lord college sports are back where the public is as clueless as a newborn baby.
 
NickFazekas said:
so far 144/207 picks on wagerline are on bama at -16. Yes thank the good lord college sports are back where the public is as clueless as a newborn baby.
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That's a pretty good reverse line indicator right there, if you play that type of thing.
 
RJ, yeah so far it could be a reverse candidate but to play that system I always wait right till like a half hour before gametime to gather all the consensus and line moves lol. If it reverses back the last second somebody found out something and you usually get screwed in the ass. Thats about the only way it backfired for me last year, if the reverse held up the whole way thru against a big consensus it was a 66% winner atleast.
 
better hope Bama does not score cause I cannot see Hawaii scoring more than 10 points.

personally, I am looking for a close game at half and getting a very favorable line to play Bama on in the 2nd half.
 
theres maybe a 1% chance hawaii scores 10 points or less in this game. Maybe if you played this game in a hurricane they'd score less than 10.
 
Do you even pay attention? Hawaii was like the 11th ranked offense in the country last year and they return 9 out of 11 starters. What in the world would make you think they score less than 10?
 
I am not sure how valid this is, but at 52.5 that total indicates to me that somebody somewhere thinks Hawaii is going to be able to score.
 
Bama is not the team to bet with large spreads.

Favored by 7 or more last season...

1-6 ATS.

This team is losing their starting QB and failed to ever put up enough points to cover a large spread. Hawaii can't be any worse on defense and returns on of the best offenses in the nation....Hawaii did get blown out badly to start the season vs. USC (that doesn't mean shit)... going to evalute Bama's defense because if Hawaii can score 17 points they will cover.
 
did you lock in the play yet flava? I got nervous and took +17 -110 since they still had it up from the opening line and didn't move it. Not sure if it can go much higher than 17 or 17.5 on gameday even with the public all over it.

If you look at the results from last year (not that that means much) but as inspekdah said bama won 1 game by more than 17 and that was against UTAH STATE. And the only game hawaii lost by 17 or more was vs USC (The Southern Cal one)

This game is almost too good to be true, especially considering the public is on the other side.
 
Inspector,

saying "SC blowing Hawaii out badly doesn't mean shit" is absurd and stupid and is why you may not make any money gambling. why is that absurd???

what you should have said was SC's avg. defense was able to hold Hawaii, AT HOME, to ONLY 17 points and that is why Alabama's better than avg. defense playing at home will more than likely only yield a TD at best in the fourth quarter b/c the 2nd string offense turned the ball over in the Hawaii red zone and Bama had put in the 2nd string defense.

u guys better hope Alabama cannot score 24-27 points.
 
nick aka PJP,

Alabama beat another team last season by more than 17 points. That teams goes by the name of the Florida Gators. a masacre it was. somethig like 35-3.
 
Tarheel Brn&Bred said:
what you should have said was SC's avg. defense was able to hold Hawaii, AT HOME, to ONLY 17 points and that is why Alabama's better than avg. defense playing at home will more than likely only yield a TD at best in the fourth quarter b/c the 2nd string offense turned the ball over in the Hawaii red zone and Bama had put in the 2nd string defense.

u guys better hope Alabama cannot score 24-27 points.
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lol you answered you own damn question fool, Bama scoring 24-27 is about a once a year occurence. Good luck but you have offered no evidence why bama has a chance to slow Hawaii's passing game and you are basically just sharing how every John Smith at the sportsbook feels anyway.

I dont know who you are by the way so no need to call me by anything other than Nick.
 
The game hawaii scored 17 vs USC they also had over 500 yards on offense......

If you seriously believe hawaii will score less than 10 and not cover good luck to ya:shake:
 
Well at first you notice they got spanked in the 1st game of the season by a huge amount....

Then I threw it out because this was USC. The best offense in the history of college football. I think USC's defense was severely underrated and like Nick said.... Hawaii moved the ball extremely well. If they can put up 17 against Bama which let's not beat around the bush... has a conservative and average offense at best... I think they cover.

Compare Bama '06 and USC '05 should be thrown out. USC would have beat Bama at Bama by 28.
 
That Florida game was the spread offense's nightmare. TO's, etc... Florida wasn't ready to play against anyone that week. The Gators offense was wretched till later in the season. Leak couldn't work that system for the life of him early on...
 
guys, i'm not really even discussing who will cover and who will not. all I am saying is that you two have convenienlty dismissed some noticeable things in your capping of this game.

saying Florida game was the spread offense's nightmare is not smart. how bout all the games they won and covered b/c of it. i bet you gave credit to the offense then.

throwing out the SC game is mistake as well. i don't care how many yards they had on offense, they couldn't put the biscuit in the basket where it matters most. if they can't do it against an avg defense at home how are they going to do it off the island against an even better defense? nobody needs to tell you how horrible Hawaii is on the mainland.

i'm done on commenting on this. waste of my time. good luck in your decisions this year. my goal was to enlighten you. apologies if you feel otherwise.
 
Tarheel Brn&Bred said:
guys, i'm not really even discussing who will cover and who will not. all I am saying is that you two have convenienlty dismissed some noticeable things in your capping of this game.

saying Florida game was the spread offense's nightmare is not smart. how bout all the games they won and covered b/c of it. i bet you gave credit to the offense then.

throwing out the SC game is mistake as well. i don't care how many yards they had on offense, they couldn't put the biscuit in the basket where it matters most. if they can't do it against an avg defense at home how are they going to do it off the island against an even better defense? nobody needs to tell you how horrible Hawaii is on the mainland.

i'm done on commenting on this. waste of my time. good luck in your decisions this year. my goal was to enlighten you. apologies if you feel otherwise.
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I tend to agree with you, Tarheel. Alabama saw a much better "spread offense" in the Cotton Bowl last season than they are going to see in their opener and they were able to shut it down. Still, I think the line is too close to where it needs to be here in this game to make a play.
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NickFazekas said:
did you lock in the play yet flava? I got nervous and took +17 -110 since they still had it up from the opening line and didn't move it. Not sure if it can go much higher than 17 or 17.5 on gameday even with the public all over it.

If you look at the results from last year (not that that means much) but as inspekdah said bama won 1 game by more than 17 and that was against UTAH STATE. And the only game hawaii lost by 17 or more was vs USC (The Southern Cal one)

This game is almost too good to be true, especially considering the public is on the other side.
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Not yet bro. I am going over some final notes and locking plays by mid-week.

We can't really talk about last year's opener against USC because Hawaii used two QB's in that game and both were shitting their pants at seeing their first minutes of college football. Colt Brennan is a talented kid and he has a little bit of experience this time around. All it takes is a few big plays by Hawaii and they cover without problem.
 
USC's LB's were hitting Hawaii's receivers so damn hard in that game...flava, as you remember I was on the opposite side of you in that one and didn't get the cover...
 
No need to make a pick on this game......WOW......Bama lose straight up....It is my concern that Bama has new meat in the Corners and Safety..
It is my concern that we also have a new QB.....I was not a Brodie fan but had to live with it....There are many "IF's" with this team coming into this year....and to start with a team like the Rainbows will be a big test.....Some folks tend to forget about SEC football....Defense..Defense...Denfese...Will Bama be better on the offensive side of the ball this year?? I truely believe so...JP did'nt play much LY but showed he can roll outta the pocket...3 TD passes in very few attempts.....We lost our starting center LY..Remember??
No arguements, just facts...We shall see.....
 
pags11 said:
USC's LB's were hitting Hawaii's receivers so damn hard in that game...flava, as you remember I was on the opposite side of you in that one and didn't get the cover...
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Wow how do you remember that? Yeah it was quite the game...
 
Wow looks like Bama starting RB Ken Darby got seriously hurt today at practice and had to be carried off the field.


Hawaii + whatever starting to look better and better. Glad I locked in, and if I were you guys thinking of playing it id hit it right now before this injury gets reported everywhere
 
Hawaiiguy at covers reported this post, and hes pretty reliable.

Hawaii Sports is reporting Ken Darby has a major knee injury and was carried off the field today. 1,200 yards rushing last season is a lot to lose....

They also said Alabama's second and thrid string running backs are out with a knee and head injury.........

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Can any Alabama fans confirm this????[/FONT]
 
You know, Fade, Hawaiiguy is usually a very good predictor of his team and he's not afraid to fade them whenever he thinks they will not cover. In fact, I've seen him fade Hawaii more times than I have seen him play on them -- including basketball. But, he's been on Hawaii in this play for the last month and a half.

Are we being a little biased here towards an SEC team playing a WAC team? It would have been difficult last year for Alabama to cover this kind of spread, so why would we fear them not covering here?

I'd sure appreciate more of an input from you because I know you know your team well and you know the SEC well.
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WAC vs SEC doesnt mean anything in this case. Hawaii's offense can play with any defense in the nation.
 
NickFazekas said:
WAC vs SEC doesnt mean anything in this case. Hawaii's offense can play with any defense in the nation.
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Ahem . . . . . . Bullshit.
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I'm actually thinking about an UNDER play here. The TOTAL is 53 and I still believe in Alabama's defense.
 
Ah, hell, I went ahead and made my wager on the UNDER 53 here. First NCAA wager of the season. I'm getting prepared to lay money on several more UNDERS this week, so I decided to catch the 53 before it goes down. I got it at -103 juice to boot!
 
I guess we'll see but give me the WAC team with June Jones and a half a dozen first day NFL picks littering the offense.
 
NickFazekas said:
I guess we'll see but give me the WAC team with June Jones and a half a dozen first day NFL picks littering the offense.
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new_shocked.gif
C'mon, Nick, you're starting to lose any respect I might have had for your opinion, dude. That's just absurd.
 
Im losing the same respect for you, as you are clueless and have prejudices vs WAC teams obviously

Davone Bess- first round pick for sure
Colt Brennan-First Day maybe creeps 1st or 2nd
Samson Satele-First day for sure
Grice-Mullen-first day pick
Esera -will play in the NFL

Maybe thats only 5 but if you think this is your normal WAC team you don't follow WAC football. This is the most talented team Hawaii has ever had.

Good luck going forward, but i wouldnt bet too much on under or bama -17 anyway.
 
home field doesnt apply as much either, because as I know from following the WAC, Hawaii gets stuck with alot of late season cold weather lroad games (Like Reno, NV in the winter time) Thats what fucks em up and thats when you fade em. I can't believe anyone would just blindly bet conference vs conference and not look at the teams when clearly this aint your fathers Bama team either.
 
Satele is a first day pick, but that is all.

Brennan will get an opportunity to play some back-up in the NFL somewhere.

That's it out of the ones you listed.
armscrossed.gif
 
If you dont think davone bess plays in the NFL i dont know what to tell ya
 
He's miles better than nate burleson was at this stage of his career bro, just drop that arguement
 
NickFazekas said:
home field doesnt apply as much either, because as I know from following the WAC, Hawaii gets stuck with alot of late season cold weather lroad games (Like Reno, NV in the winter time) Thats what fucks em up and thats when you fade em. I can't believe anyone would just blindly bet conference vs conference and not look at the teams when clearly this aint your fathers Bama team either.
Click to expand...

You want to state the post where someone said they were "blindly" betting conference vs. conference?

Nick, whenever you have two teams playing an out of conference game, you have to size up the "strength of conferences" as PART of your handicapping of a game. It's not ALL you consider in a play, but it IS part of the consideration. And while we are considering it, the SEC is DEFINITELY a TON stronger than the WAC!!!
 
If you'd take off your WAC colored glasses, you might be able to be sensible.

Also, I'm not saying Hawaii is a bad bet here. Considering the injuries and graduation of players off last year's team, you could have a good play. But, GEEEEZ, you come on way to strong with all this WAC shit!!
 
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