Happy Turkey Day ( Wed thoughts)


Breaking it down briefly
Probably not gonna have much time to even post in the next couple weeks(maybe not even on my half ass blog either) so I figured for the Thanksgiving weekend I would post on CTG...

Cavs -2 -106 (3x) & ML -120 (2x) Middled ov198.5 -110 & Under 200.5 -110 (5x)

HUGE CONCERN IS THAT PINNY IS THE ONLY BOOK I SEE WITH -2 are they taking a position on CLE?? I would guess yes! bad sign

- After looking at this game very closely I cannot figure out a reason why Cavs would be only -2.5 here(think -4.5 was accurate). Think about SA was -7 in Tor but Cavs were just +5.5 in SA and won SU...also CLE was -5 in NYK!! I guess Larry Hughes could be a reason but a best I think he is worth 1 point in the spread. Raps have lost 6 or 7 straight now(win vs Philly) and coming back after a 5 game trip where the had lost the final 3 games SU but covered ATS . You could use the fact Cavs are 0-2 in back to backs BUT look at the situations they played in. First time they win @ SA for the 1st time in 4ever(like '88) and play @ Charlotte...emotional letdown...even in the NBA or lack of focus I would say. The next time they play Minny at home and travel to Wiz. Lebron has sucked in these 2 b to b games. However last year in 19 B to B's LeBron was at his best avg 33.6 ppg so rest IMO a non factor. Wash / Cle is now a great rivalry IMO after the playoffs last year. Close Wiz lost in the season opener was avenged by Arenas and his 45. Freaky stat cavs 8-1 as a fav SU while Raps are 0-6 SU as a dog( the Milw line though was -1 closed at +1 and they won so??). I think I jumped the gun on the total and maybe should middle / wash the whole thing out...Cavs only topped a 100 three times in 10 games and just once away(once above 102)..I have Cavs about 98-101 pts here says its 101-98 your barely getting close...so probably a complete wash just waiting...wouldnt be suprised to see 101 -95..

Indiana @ Orlando ...Over 189.5 -105 (8x) / Over 94 -124 (2x) 1st Half
Pacers Ml +270 (1x)

Someone please explain how this line is -7. I simply do not get it. Indy has won 7 of 10 with the Orl wins by 4 or less and Indy has won 5 of 6 in Orlando. Indy was just -5 at home by ORL won by 10 so how is this line moving 12 points? ...maybe I could see 8 possibly even 10 but WTF...I am totally lost as to why this line is where it is I could deal with -4 or -4.5 but -7 just seems like IND is a layup here..Magic were -7.5 to Char and -7 to Seattle in a game they won by 1...doesnt Indy qualify as a stronger team?? Is it Indys miracle 14-0 run to cover last nite??? Two down to the wire games with Milwaukee possibly?? For the total this is the lowest total since the opener at home for Orl. Indy has been in the 200's in all road games outside of Chicago. Both teams allow a high amount of FTs and both shot the three well and defend it poorly. Pacers avg 55 Fts(shot & allowed) and ORL 61... Pacers have had some trouble on the road losing badly @ CHI & Wash but those teams arent slightily better then ORL @ home IMO and the highest number was +6.5..

Charlotte ML +100 (7x) Over 198 -115 (3x) Really like Char might add at half
Knight will probably not play here but Felton & Knight really both play the point. So Morrison probably slides to the two spot like he did when Felton was out and May plays the four. Boston has lost alot of size with injutries to Al Jefferson , Candy Man (Olawkandi) , Ratliff and now even Perkins is questionable. Right know I myself play alot a ton of basketball and run alot and I am battling plantar facitis and this shit hurts alot!! I struggle to walk on it most days. Anyway theats what Perkins is now dealing with. Then put Wally World and West on the injured list. I just think witrh Okefor playing like a beast CHAR continues its ATS run versus Boston. RThe Celts are HOT last 5 games but real tough spot here. The over is based on Char and Bos both putting others on teh FT line...Celts three away games have seen 85 FTS!!! Cautious though cause Knight is a playmaker and is oUT (probably)

Not much to say other then I liked DET @ -6 but not touching it. Will play the under 188 -105 (3x). I said if it was 191 I would pound it. Really I wanted toplay the 1st H under but they shaded it so much cause of ATL propensity for slow starts it only 90 points..Basically I see DET winning SU and maxing at about 96 points...ATL depends heavily on the three ball for offense and DET should defend that well ask Korver...

Heat +10.5 -105 (3x) ML +600 (1/2x)
Spurs own them but maybe with Dallas on deck and Heat off poor performance they overlook this matchup some...Spurs tend to struggle as home chalk especially DD chalk...Spurs still dont shot FTs well and allow opps to hit 42% from 3....that could be a huge plus if guys liek Walker and Williams are HOT or it could spell disaster...Spurs 7th game in 9 days and last year in this spot playing Miami w/o Shaq line was -8.5 (but they did cover). All signs actually point to an over but wait for a halftime play......

The 8 PM's on deck...
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This card seems littered with attractive dogs. BetCrimes says the numbers dictate it could be time for a DOG run based on these spreads I think so but all the dog seems to be popular dogs...So honestly whothe fuck knows...

76ers +8 -110 (3x) ML +235 (1x)
Hornets +9.5 -110 (3x)
Wolves -5 -104 (3x)

Simply dont like these numbers. with half of Philly injured who knwos what there lines should be. However I do think they held up fairly well till the end vs DET. One key was korver not shooting well at all against MILW that should change since there perimeter defense isnt as strong as DET. Wille Green stepped up like I thought but Dalembert was in foul trouble early....Steven Hunter please play!! bucks arent exactly with injuries and off huge collapse last nite...do they just move on here...guess we shall see. I think Philly knowing ahed of time AI is OUT might better mentally prepare them tonite...the weapons are in place the key is to keep Redd from going off...The way thetotal and line have moved I would expect someone to play hereprobably CWebb and maybe Hunter as well...

With Minny they are inconsistent as hell but so is NY who has played much better away this year. I just think you hav eto be careful with NY and short prices. Yes, Minny lost a close with NO but that was also there softest number -3 and Twolves beat up on Sac and Port at home...Orl as 5 pt dogs cruised vs Minny..Who knows what Starbury does after the benching in the place were it all began against his enemy or friend KG...Lots of question marks but I guess if I dont see NY winning SU then 5 is not a fat lineIMO...

With NO they could be thin due to injury and that might be tough against the run and gun Suns....I just cant help but back a NO team 4-0 SU w/o West... Paul and Peja playing well..Suns still struggling IMO..

Wizards +7 -105 (5x) ML +265 (1x)
Call it a leap of faith but the WIZ are in a good spot here IMO. Houston seems to always lalow teams back in the game in the 4th quarter. For as bad as Wash played in teh 2nd H yesterday they played a better team IMO . Now they get a chance at redemptin with some xtra value added in. If anything Wiz should have been +7 last nite and +5 here. Wiz played tough in the 1st 2 road losses @ Cle and @ Orl but have since soured. Failing as road chalk in NYK and losing as dogs in DET and DAL not exactly easily places to win while Hous 0-3 ATS as a fav....this is the biggest number Was has seen on the road...

Warriors -2 -114 (7x)

Played this early morning but GS went toe toe with Suns even without Davis so I am not concerned about his loss. Denver is riddled with injuries and last nite the bench went 7 /22 and 1/4Fts as Boykins missed the game. There 3 main stars all logged 40 minutes and this is a B to B situation whic h I do see valeu inthe home squad. Nuggets only won by 4 behind a career nite from JR Smith. Denver has done its winning vs the EAST.....

Utah @ Sac is a pass just seems like a bad spot for Utah but they look so interesting plus those points..

Still looking at the last 2 games...like both home teams though
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I hate big cards I never get enough time to look everything. this card is going to be real good or real bad..no two ways about it...GL
Well really disappointed in some ways I took Cle as they are down 4 at half but worse I talked myself into middling the total....which I stared with the over 198.5...maybe it will fall on 200...doubt I can get that lucky

Disgusted at the moment I didnt pound Indy 1st Half + , 1st H ML as well as make some real plays on the game spread.....I tned to believe even fat dogs play well for half...

Still see some Bobcat value....2md H +1.5 -115 (4x) ML +118 (2x)...so GL!
I know when I made a mistake and I clearly should have been extra careful with Miami there was no reason to play it. Walker in foul trouble , thin bench , and back end of back to back versus a deep SA bench could get ugly

2ndhalf SA -110 ML (3x) GL
Have to play the

Kings -4.5 -106 (3x) due to the shady line theory

middling NJ -3 -108 with Port +4.5 -110 (5x) BUT

Switching to the Darkside and rididng Port +4 +100 (4x) ML +165 (1.5x)

Basically I just think this line started FAT and got PHATTA ... probably should be more like NJ -1.5. The Nets in recent seasons have not been favored in Port and have lost 3 straight years out there. Vince has led them team recently and I ownder if martell Websters length gives him a problem. Right now NJ in the middle of a brutal schedule as well. Revenge sounds great in theory but if your playing bad lines it wont matter like in SEA on Monday...Nj was -3 at home Vs SEA and lost how can they be just +3 in Sea?? Public bit and Sonics came alive in the fourth Q . Now Blazers +9 / +10 in NJ and win SU conicingly and catch +4 at home....explain that? The pub still backing NJ though seeing value....I clearly dont. Portland has defended there home court winning the 1st three SU vs Minny , NO and LAL, they lost by 7 catching 7 to Dallas and ctaching 6 versus SA fell apart late after elading by 10 with 18 minutes left....They are tough at home and I see that continuing cause NJ simply not playing well now...I mean SA and DAL were 6 now NJ a mid tier East team is just -4....nope!! Bad line....RJ is back though so maybe I should adjust for that?? I flip flopped positions here so who knows maybe I over thought it will know at 1 AM.....
I HATE myself for playing CLEVELAND it was clear the books wanted you on them...I knew it an still played it ...SUCKER!

Cavs -2 -106 (3x) Loss 3.18
Cavs ML -120 (2x) Loss-2.4
Middle: ov 198.5 -110 Un 200.5 -110 (5x) -0.50

- While I feel smart for rethinking the Total play I truly I am disguted at myself for the Cavs play. Simply cause I KNOW when Pinnacle is shaded a 1/2 cheaper and with + vig on Clevelnd they are taking a position. Every single other book had -2.5 at the time...Silly mistakes...If I have the confidence to trust my read and make the Raps the play its a great job by me...

Over 189.5 -105 Indiana (8x) Loss -8.40
1st H Ov 94 -124 (2x) Win +2.00
Pacers ML +270(1x) Loss -1.00

- Here I am guilty of knowing to much as IND looks like the play of the year catching +7. Usually in these spots I try to play that DOG in the 1st H. Here I think I was so convinced this was a sucker bet I couldnt pull the trigger on any 1st H sides and worse couldnt get involved at half with ORL. So truly left alot on the table IMO here...With the over what can I do. I got what I expected in terms of FTs but ORL went 26-43 for 60.5 % ...even though I know they struggle atthe line somewhere closer to 68 /69 % gets me the huge play

Char +100 (7x) Win +7.00
Over 198 -115 (3x) Loss -3.45
2nd H +1.5 -115 (4x) Win +4.00
2nd H ML +118 (2x) Win +2.36

Well really happy as I loved Charlotte here and they cashed my 13 + units. I cant complain about the total I knew it was marginal but I guess you should be wiser when Boston is coming off a game with 240 points facing a team allowing low 40's FG against and both with some banged up players...

Under 188 -105 Det (3x)Loss -3.15
Just a reach by me said I wanted 191 and should have just walked away...

Heat +10.5 -105 (3x) ML (1/2x) Loss -3.65
2nd H SA ML -110 (3x) WIn +3.00

- Feel smart for being able to correct my mistake. man of all the Dogs to play what a bad choice knowing how badly they struggle in SA and the fact it wasnt exactlya contrarian idea...

76ers +8 -110 (3x) ML +235 (1x)Win +2.00
Glad I stuck with this as I was real close to middling it. Philly basically did what I thought they would last nite. Lone mistake was not playing MILW ML at half...

Hornets +9.5 -110 (3x)Win +3.00
1st H +4.5 -101 (1x) Ml (1x) Losses -2.00

- Well happy I played this real early as I needed every half. Guess losing the 1st H that I added last minute diminsih it.

Wolves -5 -104 (3x)Win +3.00

- Good win should have buried this though but NY is so unpredictable. As a team they are bad and should alway sbe getting heavy points...5 is very low when they cant cover as home dogs to Westteams...

Wiz +7 -105 (5x) ML +265 (1x) Loss net +4.00

- Again it was a good spot with them getting shaded to much. late rally was great but ML would have been heaven...

A couple of tough decisions and only about +6.25 going into the end of the nite (with only GS pending)......total is Ind cost me 16 /17 units..

GS -2 -114 (7x) Pending

Kings -4.5 -106 (3x) Loss -3.18

Looked smart for 3 quarters but 21 pt edge in the 4th foiled me. Its my fault I never liked Sac really just playing what I thought was a bad line but BETCRIMES was correct as was my thoughts in that we were due fo a DOG run...

middling NJ -3 -108 with Port +4.5 -110 (5x) )-0.40 BUT

Switching to the Darkside and rididng Port +4 +100 (4x) ML +165 (2x) Win +7.30

Sometimes I do relatively smart things. However I did think POrt was toast at half. Missed out on an easy over here though...Also I was real close to playing the ML only since Blazers are this rare team that doesnt involve point spreads all there wins are SU ML dogs....goes back to last year just wasnt 100% as it is early this year

lets see if I over though this NJ game...

Thats really it liked Seattle alot and the over some . Also really ln NJ but that game was just giving me a headache...GS is big now...
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