Happy 4th -- Thursday Discussion Thread
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
pretty good bet quintana will go 6 innings today, we have seen all series nats don't really work counts vs lefties, they don't fan much but they hit pitchers pitches into quick outs. besides facing a team who struggles vs lefties and is quick to hit into outs pretty much everything lines up for him to have a solid game, he been better in day games, he on his best days rest, he has had success in this park. dont see any reason not to play him ov 17.5 outs -110.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
on the same note the ff under 4.5 +110 is a really nice number to play imo, kinda shocked we getting plus money on this, in irvin last 11 starts he has only allowed more than 2 runs twice! all series mets have struggled to score runs early off starters, if Irvin continues his form and holds mets to 2 or less i sure don't see nats putting up a big enough number on a decent lefty to go over this. for the most part the runs in this series have come off the pens so pretty sweet to get plus money on under while leaving them out of it!
TheDodgers
Pretty much a regular
Gotta take a shot with Contreras over 4.5 k's today at +1.12. Oakland the worst team with K's against right handed pitching. Still looking at the Phillies who continue to win short handed.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
it's philly or nothing for me, just dunno if i can wrap my head around paying more for them today than the 1st 2 games?
i havnt looked much at the laa/oak series (can you blame me! lol), isn't that contreras the one who used to pitch for pirates? i always thought he had potential with a pretty filthy slider, at just a quick glance my only concern would be is he stretched out enough to go 5? i mean he could prob fan 5 in 3-4 innings but feel better going in if i know my guy can give me 5 innings, that and last time he pitched it was against oak which i don't love, he went 3 innings with 2 k's and 2 walks in that one.
GridironGems
The Mel Kiper of CTG
Where's the hot dog eating discussion at? Wide open field without Chestnut this year
2daBank
Voice of Reason
the day i bet on those morons shoveling hot dogs in their mouths the day i call 1-800-bets off
i say that but im sure ive bet it before, def the total, lol.
TheDodgers
Pretty much a regular
Yep that's him from Pitt. Banking on the fact he pitches more than 3 today. Hoping anyway lol. Agree with Phillies. Can only go to the well so many times on a cheap line being short guys. Sanchez pitched his balls off in June. Can he continue it into July?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
in this case i rather get out early than late, made good money off that series, there several other plays i like more today haopy walking away from that one now.
stros feel like getting a team on the cheap today. i get bassitt much more consistent but on both their best days ill take Valdez and stros getting themselves back into race while jays continue to toil in mediocrity, no question to me who the better team playing better ball, can't see them letting jays earn a split especially while they see seattle continue to lose.
Taking Twins TT
TheDodgers
Pretty much a regular
I'm going to add the Reds +1.5 runs -1.30. Think the general public feels no way Red sweep the Yanks. Montas does not have horrible numbers against Yanks in 3 career appearances at 1-1 with a 1.29 era. Also grabbing the over 4.5 K's with Montas at -1.19
2daBank
Voice of Reason
cards/pirates is funny, just like yesterday i kinda like the over but tough for me to make a play when i dont have any real solid reasoning for it, took another extra inning miracle type thing to go over yesterday after mikolas was way better than i expected. just something bout these 2 make me think they both find a way to 4 runs, that all it took to cash yesterday. total ticked up to 9 today so less appealing when i think push comes into play. you look at bottom cards lineup and 7-8-9 a total scrub in carlson (the guy cards refused to put in any trade few years ago! lmao), then a couple 25 year olds that are prob not big leaguers! ahead of them goldy and arenado are a black hole in middle the order, dunno wtf happened with those 2? they both aged overnight i guess.. pirates lineup isn't any more exciting. clearly none this screams over, im not gonna play it but still think they both score 4+, lol.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i stayed away but i do think it more likely lower scoring so nothing wrong taking a cheap +1.5. tend to agree this most likely a game yanks rl taking a lot the action w ppl thinking they avoid sweep and not wanting to pay the juice, that how i 1st looked at it, lol. i'm never a fan of laying the -1.5 w home team, when yanks hitting that one the parks i don't mind as much since runs can come easy there, at the moment no way id lay -1.5 with them cause it hard to see them winning a higher scoring game. hope you cash them
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i know these pitchers filthy but some the pitches guys swing at these days (by guys i mean the entire seattle lineup and some others around league!) is baffling. how in the hell dude thought he had any chance at some these pitches right out the hand tell me they are hard core guessing, right? they have to be!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
quintana gets his 18th out on probably hardest hit ball of day! sometimes little luck is nice, muts were just starting to warm up the pen too! i'll take it, 2 for 2 to start day. now stros and yordan need to get it done. put more pressure on seattle and cement the fact jays might as well be sellers!
TheDodgers
Pretty much a regular
Nice call thxs
TheDodgers
Pretty much a regular
Hopefully they get out of this inning
2daBank
Voice of Reason
man these fucking books caught on fast to seattle swinging with eyes closed approach this year! last few years there were certain teams i could continue to pick on w opposing pitcher k's over and over, didn't much matter who pitcher was in some cases being just ok was better cause they still strike out and number be lower! not with mariners tho, every time a line should be 6.5 they make it 7.5! they know they won't get burnt by someone playing under cause they likely to fan 10+ times every time the line there!! as good as burnes is he has only fanned 8+ 2x all year and that where they put him! almost every time i let 7.5 scare me off pitcher flies over it! the problem here is Burnes cutter is nice and all but it generates a lot of weak contact, great for him but not for needing a extra strike out! id seriously think bout over 18.5 outs at plus money but at moment they at 17.5 -225, i think that almost a no brainer if ya wanna pay the juice.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
maybe just playing the o's the way to go? think they been dead wrong with the lines all series and even this one while higher i don't think it accurately represents o's with the better pitcher and vastly better offense. miller throws lot of 4 seamers too and lot of o's smash those! kinda why they one the best teams to me cause they have dudes who smash spin also! this game id say gunner, crowder, ohearn all solid prop guys. westburg also way he hits heat but rather roll with the lefties as miller much better vs right side.
