HAMMERING the Bowls SPREADS!!!!!

HammersSpreads

HammersSpreads

Pretty much a regular
'13 REGULAR SEASON:

Season Record: 70-55 (56.00%)
Sides Record: 61-46 (57.01%)
Totals Record: 9-9 (50%)
ML Parlay: 4-5

MASTER Record: 16-3 (84.2%)

HAMMERED Record: 0-3 (0.00%)


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Bowl Season:
Overall Record: 18-21
Sides Record: 14-11
Totals Records: 4-10

HAMMERED Record (5-6 units): 1-0
MASTERED Record (3-4 units): 2-4
On The Reg Record (1-2 units): 6-6 (2-1 - x2)
Small Potatoes Record (Less than 1 unit): 9-11

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

New Mexico Bowl:
Wazzou (-5) ----- MASTERED

Las Vegas Bowl:
Fresno St (+6) ----- Reg

Potato Bowl:
SDSU ML ----- Small Potatoes
SDSU/Buff U 24.5 1st half ----- Reg

N.O. Bowl:
Tulane (-2) ----- MASTERED

Beef O' Brady Bowl:
ECU TT O 38 ----- Small Potatoes

Hawaii Bowl:
Oregon St. (-3) x2 ----- On the Reg

Lil' C Bowl:
Pittsburgh (+7) ----- Small Potatoes
Pittsburgh ML (+240) ----- Small Potatoes
UNDER 1st half 24.5 ----- Small Potatoes

Poinsettia Bowl:
Utah St ML ----- MASTERED (bought off 1u @ 2nd half)
USU/NIU U 56 ----- Small Potatoes

Military Bowl:
Maryland ML (+135) ----- Reg
Mary/Marsh O 65 ----- Small Potatoes

Texas Bowl:
Minny (-3) ----- Reg

Fight Hunger Bowl:
BYU (+6) ----- MASTERED
BYU/Wash U 65.5 ----- Small Potatoes

Pinstripe Bowl:
ND (-15) ----- Small Potatoes
Rutgers TT U 20 ----- Small Potatoes

Belk Bowl:
UNC (-2.5) x2 ----- Reg
UNC/Cincy O 57 ----- Small Potatoes

Russy Ath Bowl:
L'Ville (-5.5) ----- Reg
Ville/K-St ML Parlay

B-Dub's Bowl:
K-State/Mich O 52 ----- Reg
K-State (-7) ----- Small Potatoes

Armed Militia Bowl:
Navy/MTSU O 57 ----- Small Potatoes

Music City Bowl:
Ole Miss (-2.5) ----- MASTERED

Remember The Alamo Bowl:
Texas (+14.5) ----- MASTERED
Texas ML (+490) ----- Small Potatoes

Holiday Bowl:
Arizona St (-16) x2 ----- Reg
Arizona St TT O 43 ----- Small Potatoes
ASU/TT O 72 ----- Small Potatoes
Texas Tech (+10.5) 2nd half ----- HAMMERED

AdvoCare V100 Bowl:
 BC (+7.5) stupid stupid stupid ----- Small Potatoes

Sun Bowl:
UCLA (-7) ----- Reg
UCLA/VT U 23 1st half ----- Small Potatoes
UCLA/VT U 45 ----- Small Potatoes
UCLA (-3) 2nd half ----- Reg

Liberty Bowl:
 Miss St (-5.5) 2nd half ----- Reg

Chick-fil-A Bowl:
 Texas A&M (-13) ----- MASTERED

Gator Bowl:
Nebraska (+10) ----- MASTERED
Nebraska ML (+320) ----- Small Potatoes

Heart O' Dallas Bowl:
North Texas (-6) ----- Reg

Outback Bowl:
LSU (-7.5) ----- Small Potatoes

Capital Uno Bowl:
Wisconsin (-1) ----- HAMMERED

Rose Bowl:
Stanford (-6.5) ----- Reg
Stanford/MSU O 41 ----- Reg

Fiesta Bowl:
Baylor (-16.5) ----- MASTERED

Suga Bowl:
Lean Sooners

Cotton Bowl:

Orange Bowl:
Lean Bucky

Compass Bowl:
Lean Vandy

GoDaddy Bowl:
Strong Lean Testicles

Natty Champ Bowl:
Lean Noles
 
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this was ur first year betting? damn i had no idea i was often tailing a rookie haha. great job man, never missed a master play...hopefully there are some come bowl season
 
Yanks - yes sir. Plenty of time to get some reads on these games and hopefully crush it.

D-Woww - ha sorry for misleading you buddy. I wasn't aware I had anyone tailing....glad you made some money with me. I've picked games with friends for 3 years, and have done really well winning out yearly pot the last couple years. So I opened up an account and started betting last bowl season....and came out a little up. I hit all 3 of my biggest plays, but the rest were hott and cold. I learned that you have to take a much different angle than the ones I use the 2nd half of the regular season.

I am am obviously upset SJSU didn't make a bowl game. I've made some great loot off them this year. There were talks about my Aztecs not making a bowl bc the MWC didn't have enough bowl tie-ins for all the bowl eligible teams. I think Colo St should have been left out and that they are the weakest team but oh well. I'm also shocked and bummed about Toledo not making it. They should definitely be in over Ohio. Either way, next year should be better for the smaller conferences since they are getting their own bowls on top of these tie-ins. The conference tie-ins can suck sometimes bc there are teams that have zero reason being in a bowl like Rutgers....I hope they get demolished. I think there are much more deserving teams that got left out and that would be more appreciative of being in a bowl. But oh well
 
Gettin' down on some action this weekend for a 1/2 unit each:




E. Illinois (-16)
It's actually a pretty good matchup for Towson, so I won't be surprised if this doesn't hit....but I'll keep rolling w/ EIU. I plan on betting them every game, and I wanted to get on a future for them to win it all weeks ago, but I couldn't find one at 5dimes. They are the Baylor/Oregon on the FCS, & b/c of that their defense gets overlooked. EIU should be undefeated w/ wins against San Diego St & Northern Illy (I had a good chunk of change on NIU & it was clear that EIU should have won the game).


N. Dakota St. (-14)
Coach is leaving after the playoffs, & players seem emotional about it. I'll hope that the players work their behind off & keep rolling, instead of making excuses & giving up. This game looks like a real bad match up for Coastal Carolina, & the back to back weeks of long travel only make this stronger IMO.


Jacksonville St. (+9)
Jack St has been playing some real good football lately, & I think they match up real well w/ EWU. Jack St has faced EIU & actually contained Garoppolo (but they got ran all over instead). The X factor here of course is playing at the Inferno Field & the long long travel, but I still wouldn't be surprised to see a straight up win.


Army/Navy UNDER 52
This game seems like it always goes under. I like it when option teams face each other...especially in a "big" game like this b/c they know the others offense so well.
 
Ready to rock & roll with some bowls. I will have at least 1 play in every game, but bc I don't like to give money back to the books, I will add in another "level" of plays......the "Small Potatoes"


Bowl Season:
Overall Record:
Sides Record:
Totals Records:

HAMMERED Record (5-6 units):
MASTERED Record (3-4 units(:
On The Reg Record (1-2 units):
Small Potatoes Record (Less than 1 unit):

I will keep the updated record on the 1st post. Be back with the 1st play shortly
 
Washington St. Cougs (-5) ----- MASTERED

Gonna try to start off the bowl season in a big way.
1st, we can go ahead & cancel motivation IMO. Cougs haven't bowled in 10 years, Rams has been 5 years. So of course both teams should show up to play.
A big factor that sticks out in this game is the SOS difference. Cougs have faced one of the hardest, if not the hardest, in the nation. Meanwhile, the Rams have faced a fairly easy one....ranking 100+ nationally.
We all know Leach is going to pass, pass, pass. The Rams are statistically bad against the pass, ranking 100+ nationally again. I can look past bad rankings, as I will show later in this write up....but this is particularly hard to ignore. The main reason for this is b/c I have a hard time looking at their schedule & seeing why they should be so bad against the pass. It is hard to find teams that should light it up every week w/ the pass when you look at their schedule. There are a few teams that rank in the top 50 nationally in pass, but they aren't very good teams overall. The best team to gauge or compare to Wazzou that they played (offensively) is SJSU.....& David Fales only passed for 430 yds against them while completely 80% passing. This was earlier in the season, but regardless the defense hasn't seemed to make much strides. I was a HUGE SJSU better this year, & the game against Colo St was the 1st game they had success running the ball in as well. They also had success w/ RB's catching the ball out of the backfield and breaking long runs. IMO the biggest reason for this is b/c of Colo St defensive scheme. When looking closer into the Rams, their defense is based off their OLB's blitzing & getting to the QB. Their LB's make up a very big majority of their sacks & TFL. When playing an offense like Wazzou (or SJSU), you have to have the athletes & smarts on defense to make it work. I'm not sure Colo St is there just yet. These offenses love to throw the ball fast, which exploits the rushing OLB's, & it also leaves good opportunities for the RB's to catch the ball out of the backfield, more specifically when a team is running man coverage b/c the MLB's have to chase to cover the RB. Futhermore, I think Wazzou will see some run lanes open up to get some decent runs b/c of the aggressive style of defense. While Wazzou's running game is the worst in the nation, it is important to note that their RB's average 150 all purpose yards a game.....nearly 100 yds more than they average rushing. I will also note that I believe Conner has played much better recently....& it's shown by him cutting his INT's per game in half the last 4 games.

Colo St offense has taken off this year & I see it only getting better. Bibbs is a baller. They thrive off of running the ball, & then getting chunks by play action...much like Alabama. I don't think Wazzou will shut them down, but I also think they will perform better on defense then most expect. Bibbs has been great, but it's also notable that he has had a few HUGE games that help pad the stats. I'm not taking anything away from him b/c the stats speak for themselves....but he has had a hard time moving against some quality opponents this year. Wazzou relies much more on their d-line than Colo St does, & I think this will help them in this match up. Wazzou's defense is statistically bad....but this is an instant where I think stats can be skewed. They have had a brutal schedule against offensive juggernauts. Something that I do like is how after their bye week they came out & limited Arizona's Carey somewhat for a lot of the game.....which leads me to believe that after a couple week layoff they can come out & limit Bibbs a little.
Concerns for this game are simple.....if Wazzou gets down early & starts turning the ball over then it could be scary. Wazzou does not control the clock, & Colo St does. So if the Rams can get methodical drives, coupled w/ Wazzou turnovers then it could be bad news. But this bet is based on the belief that Wazzou will be able to limit Colo St offensively a little bit, & Conner will continue his increased play....& torch this vulnerable defense b/c this style of offense sets up great here. If Wazzou gets up then it should take Colo St out of their running gameplan & comfort zone, which will help the Cougs immensely.
 
Fresno St +6 (-120) ----- On The Reg

I was going to go small on this, but the more I looked at it the more I think Fresno will win this game.
I was on SJSU when they beat Fresno, & I was on Fresno when they beat Utah St the following week b/c I didn't think they would have a let down, which they did not.
This game comes down to motivational aspect big time IMO. I just don't feel like USC is going to be in a great mindset for this game. They rallied behind Coach O, & won a bunch of games for him, then he gets ousted. I can't imagine this sets well with the players, even though Sark should be a good hire. I have read stuff about how USC players saying that this years bowl is different b/c they didn't have as big of goals as they did last year, so they were more let down last year as opposed to this year. I just don't know if I buy it.....you lose your favorite coach after you get blasted by UCLA, & now you are playing on the 1st day of the bowl games....where you have been spending all week in Vegas.
On the other side, I think Fresno will again be very motivated here. Yes they had BCS aspirations, so I guess they can be thrown into the BCS bubble buster letdown spot....but I don't think they will have one here b/c they are playing a big name opponent. They get to play USC, not some MAC or C-USA school, so I think that should help their motivation.
I think Carr is the better QB, & while this will be the best defense he has faced, & certainly the best d-line, I like the fact that they have only given up 11 sacks on the year.

There's really not a great write up on this one. I just really believe Fresno St defense isn't as bad as most think, & I think they will be much more motivated for this game as opposed to USC. & I still believe Carr can get his & go out with a win.
I will also say that if USC shows up to play, then they could absolutely run Fresno out of the stadium. USC has far better players, although they are very limited (i believe less than 50 scholly players).
 
SDSU/Buffalo UNDER 24.5 (1st half) ----- On The Reg (1.5u)
SDSU ML (+100) ----- Small Potatoes

This game is literally a toss up IMO, & I'm looking for this one to be a real good game. I am a real big SDSU follower, & have followed/bet on Buffalo all year long. Biggest concern for Buffalo IMO is that they have made a living this year beating up on bad teams, but I'm just not sold on how they do against quality competition. The only real quality win I see is Ohio (& take that for what it's worth), while they have gotten beat up by the better MAC schools in Toledo & Bowling Green. I think SDSU is pretty comparable to Bowling Green in terms of physicality. Conversely, as I have said all year SDSU plays up & down to their competition. If they played consistently all year, then they would be maybe a 10 win team. They have played bad against bad teams, & have played really well against really good teams. With this being a bowl game, I expect SDSU to show up & play up to their competition.

These teams are virtually mirror images of each other IMO, especially offensively. They love the pro style attack w/ lots of running & play action. Both are good against the run, and although SDSU is statistically bad against the pass, they have also played some really good passing offenses in EIU, Oregon St, Fresno, etc. I'll go outside of the box & say I believe Adam Muema is a better RB than Brandon Oliver, although both are really really good. I also like the 1-2 punch for SDSU at RB. Biggest concern here is that Muema is trying to go pro & he has been riddled w/ injuries, so I'm not completely sold on how much he will show up for this game, whereas I have no doubt Oliver will show up to play. SDSU also gets back their best 2 offensive linemen for this game in Quigley & Dilley. The QB's are pretty comparable, although I think Licata is more consistent. WR's are close to even, but I like the athleticism & depth of SDSU more.

The cold weather favors Buffalo. The familiarity with the venue favors SDSU.....This isn't the first time they have played on the blue turf in the cold. Basically i see 2 teams that should grind it out, especially early, much like the Buff/BGSU game. I don't think there will be much scoring early, but wouldn't be surprised if they put up some later in the game. Both teams will be motivated IMO....Buffalo has been itching to get back to a bowl game, whereas SDSU should be ready to go as they have lost the last 2 bowls & are hungry. I also think this bowl game sets up better for SDSU than the last 2 bowls (outmatched against BYU last year, & the New Orleans bowl against ULL 2 years ago). As always w/ SDSU, the biggest concern is the lack of kicking game....& I won't be surprised if it comes down to that. Other big factor in favor of Buffalo is the TO differential...SDSU is bad, Buffalo is really good.
 
Getting absolutely buttpounded today.

The Wazzou lost was one of the worst I've had ever. The 1st half was very fishy.....i counted 3 times the officials spotted the ball 1 yd further than it should have been, which set up nicely for Colo St to convert all those ballsy 4th down plays early. Then the nice job by the officials to give Colo St a 4th timeout so they could get a FG to close the 1st half. Covering the whole game, & are up 15 with 3 min left, & then could have almost ran the clock out if you hold onto the ball up 8pts. If you look at stats it shows that Colo St won....but when you watch the game I certainly thought Wazzou was the right side. CSU outcoached Wazzou, which is expected w/ Leach's crazy a*s. Very, very bad beat IMO....but that's how it goes sometimes. Bowl season is young. 6 out of the 7 losses on my big plays this year have been lost in the last minute.....I don't know if that's good or bad.
USC came to play vs Fresno...which was why I capped it. Should have gone small potatoes on that one.
SDSU offense having more success against Buffalo than I thought. Looked like a bad 1st half bet. Buffalo offense did what I expected, Buffalo defense didn't do what I expect. Muema showed up to play today. SDSU playing up to their competition this game.


Tulane ML -2 (-120) ----- MASTERED
1st, I have to give Tulane the motivation edge. ULL has been to this bowl 3 straight years now, whereas this is Tulane's first trip since 2002. ULL has had the serious home field advantage in this bowl the last 2 years, but this year it's a different story playing at Tulane's home field.
Terrence Broadway looks like a no-go. When he got hurt Haack came in & performed well, but the following week against S Bama he was brought back to life. I'm sure the extra prep time will help him, but I couldn't trust a Frosh QB here. ULL lives off of running the ball, & Tulane has done very well against the run. The determining factor here, is that I can't tell where to be impressed w/ ULL's run game against their competition. Furthermore, I can be impressed w/ Tulane's defense when they hold Rice to just over 100 yds rushing, hold a fairly explosive UTSA offense to 7 pts, keep ULM's Browning in check to 5.0 ypa & under 50% passing, etc.
Tulane's offense isn't much of a story....they are pretty hot & cold. Montana is inconsistent as is the running game. It's a gamble relying on Tulane's offense here, but I think Darkwa & Montana will make enough plays here. ULL's defense has been suspect the back half of the year, giving up 30+ almost every game.
Tulane's defense has been dominating TO's all year, & I have to ride with the better defense & team that can force turnovers. Gotta give the edge to the C-USA team over a Sun Belt team. I have been a very big Tulane critic all year, but I think this Bowl game couldn't be much better situation for them to win.
 
ECU TT O 38.5 ----- Small potatoes

Will update everything later.


This is prob gonna be the game today that I give the least amount of crap on. Very small play
 
Record updated on 1st post
Getting butt-pounded early on in the bowls. I'm by no means down by it as I feel like I was on the right side w/ my 2 MASTER'S, they just didn't end up winners. I think I capped them pretty well overall.

Gonna throw up some quick thoughts for the next 3 games as I don't know how much time I will have after tonight.

Oregon St/Boise St:
Strong lean towards the Beav's & the Over.
I could use the whole SOS angle, but we saw how well that worked with Wazzou.....but anyway Oregon St has faced a much better schedule. They didn't play well in most of those games, but nonetheless. A few things I like is how Oregon St got hott mid-season, then turned into dookie. They looked like they had given up, but then came back & should have won against Oregon. The team has stated how that was a big boost & now they realize how good they could be if they would play like that consistently. So I like that they slid down the stretch then closed out w/ a great performance. I also LOVE the fact that they RAN THE BALL agaisnt Oregon, & Mike Riley has stated that running the ball will be more of an emphasis this game. With Wazzou, my only concern was their inability to run the ball, & that cost them the game the last 2 minutes....I would have rather them put knees on the ball than run it. However, w/ Oregon St I think they have 2 capable backs to run the ball if they actually get hand-offs. So w/ the emphasis to run the ball more, that makes me much more confident. Passing is still the emphasis for the Beavs, & Boise has been real bad against the pass this year while not playing a whole lot of quality passing offenses. Fresno put up over 450yds passing & Colo St tallied 650 total offense against them. I have watched Oregon St play a few times this year, & every time I kept saying if they would run it a little more than their offense would be so much more dangerous as Woods & Hunt are very capable backs. So with a little more balance on offense & w/ Mannion/Cooks combo, I think Oregon St will score early & often.
Boise St should have no problem moving the ball on Oregon St either. It's going to start w/ the running game, where I think they will have plenty of success. Hedrick has played pretty well & I'm just hard pressed not seeing Boise St getting into the late 20's and more likely the 30's (if they actually show up to play). Boise will not have WR Williams-Rhodes, & I have to think this had to be a fairly big blow. I also read where Hedrick was talking about how gassed he is the last couple days b/c of all the extras snaps he is getting now. So clearly, Southwick was planned to start....b/c Hedrick clearly sounded like he was very tired from all the extra practice time.
Furthermore, I have a hard time seeing Boise with a great mindset. Players have said they are excited & not worried b/ they love the Harsin hire, but regardless....this is their first time without Peterson & that has to be really, really hard. Add in all the Southwick drama & how he is now trying to call out a handful of other players, all the fun times to be had on the island, etc. Oregon St could be just as distracted w/ the beautiful scenery, but the Beavs also had a handful of players from Hawaii, so maybe that will help keep them grounded.
I'd love to go real big on this game, but I'm leaning towards just going normal b/c Hawaii Bowl location is just hard to determine the outcome.

Pitt/Bowling Green:
Bowling Green is better everywhere on the field & I still lean towards Pitt to win SU. I think there is a huge head coach advantage, & a Pitt team that should be real motivated vs a BGSU team that lost it's head coach & it's O & D Coordinators are on their way out as well. Pitt has faced a MUCH harder schedule than BGSU, & even have quality wins off of it. Still have research to do, but right now I lean away from the Falcons who I loved to watch/back all year.

Utah St/NIU:
LOVE Utah St right now
I picked Fresno earlier in the Bowl season even though they got their BCS bubble busted b/c I didn't know how motivated USC would be & thought Fresno would still be amped b/c they got to play a top level school. NIU got their BCS bubble busted, & now get to play 8-5 Utah St.....Yippee, I bet the Huskies are pumped for this one.
NIU with their top 5-10 rush offense vs the top 10 rush defense of USU. The only 2 decent/good rush defenses that NIU has played all year are Iowa & Bowling Green, & Lynch was held in check in both of them. NIU had to come back from behind to beat Iowa, & BGSU blew their doors off. IMO, Utah St has a better rush defense than both those teams. The Aggies front 7 is littered w/ really good players & it's their strength of the whole team. USU has played pretty good run offenses in BYU, Boise St, Colo St....& held them all to 100 yds less than their average. I don't think NIU will be too jazzed to play this game, & Utah St should be very pleased to play it. Aggies also get extra time to prepare for NIU & have some good film to review on them from the Bowling Green debacle.
Utah St offense clearly isnt the same w/o Keeton, but NIU defense isn't a juggernaut either. I think the Aggies will find a way to have success against the Huskies defense, really like Utah St to pull off the win.

I'll post when I lock plays in....but I wanted to get a little written b/c I'm not sure if I'll have the time before kick
 
Pitt Panthers (+7) ----- Small Potatoes
Pitt Panthers ML (+240) ----- Small Potatoes

Bowling Green is better everywhere on the field & I still lean towards Pitt to win SU. I think there is a huge head coach advantage, & a Pitt team that should be real motivated vs a BGSU team that lost it's head coach & it's O & D Coordinators are on their way out as well. Pitt has faced a MUCH harder schedule than BGSU, & even have quality wins off of it.
Basically, I see a Pitt defense that faced a much much harder schedule, especially against rush offenses than BGSU. And both teams still average 4.3 yards/rush defensively. So while BGSU has had great success in the run game, I think they may have a harder time today. & I look at a Pitt offense w/ 2 rushers that average almost 5 yd/carry each...agaisnt a BGSU defense that I think their weakness is their run defense. This may help set up some playaction today.
I love the switch at QB to Matt Johnson & he has gotten better as the year has gone on. He is just a soph & will continue to get better. But he lit up NIU b/c of wide open recievers going up & down the field....so i think people are putting too much stock in that 1 game. However, I know he has some bitterness towards Pitt b/c he's from there & they overlooked him during recruiting.
I also trust the coaching of Pitt over BGSU today as well. I've just read things that don't sound too confident out of BGSU. & on that note, I don't know where the heads of some of these young people are w/ the HC situation. The starting QB & RB are both sophomores.....& they know that they get Dino Babers, an Art Briles student, coming to coach them next year. Who knows, maybe they are just too excited about next year than they are this year b/c they know what that offense can do to ya.

I won't be surprised if BGSU blows out Pitt.....but I also won't be surprised to see Pitt win. GL

I'll be back later w/ the later game. May be a big play.
 
Dwoww: that is definitely where I'm leaning


Going to go ahead and add 1 more to this game. With BGSU ending the season so red hott on offense, I expect them to come out and be a little off/sluggish. Maybe end up being a slugfest in the 1st half with lots of runs.


Only concern is that the game is played in a dome.


BGSU/Pitt U 24.5 1st Half ----- Small Potatoes
 
Thanks Clown.....I really enjoy your posted. Very insightful, & it seems me & you have a lot of the same angles/opinions.

BGSU/Pitt 1st half had ZERO business going OVER. Oh well, that's how it goes. Other than that, I've had this game pinned perfectly through the 3 qtrs....Pitt looks like the much better team, & I thought they could run on BG. Almost bought off a bit @ half w/ BGSU -4 (b/c of Savage injury)....but laid off. This game is a little goofy w/ the officiating....the Donald penalty kept BGSU in this game, & the street fight at the start of the 2nd half was a joke.

Utah St ML ----- MASTERED
UNDER 56 ----- Small Potatoes
I picked Fresno earlier in the Bowl season even though they got their BCS bubble busted b/c I didn't know how motivated USC would be & thought Fresno would still be amped b/c they got to play a top level school. NIU got their BCS bubble busted, & now get to play 8-5 Utah St.....Yippee, I bet the Huskies are pumped for this one.
NIU with their top 5-10 rush offense vs the top 10 rush defense of USU. The only 2 decent/good rush defenses that NIU has played all year are Iowa & Bowling Green, & Lynch was held in check in both of them. NIU had to come back from behind to beat Iowa, & BGSU blew their doors off. IMO, Utah St has a better rush defense than both those teams. The Aggies front 7 is littered w/ really good players & it's their strength of the whole team. USU has played pretty good run offenses in BYU, Boise St, Colo St....& held them all to 100 yds less than their average. I don't think NIU will be too jazzed to play this game, & Utah St should be very pleased to play it. Aggies also get extra time to prepare for NIU & have some good film to review on them from the Bowling Green debacle.
Utah St offense clearly isnt the same w/o Keeton, but NIU defense isn't a juggernaut either. I think the Aggies will find a way to have success against the Huskies defense, really like Utah St to pull off the win.

The only part I'm worried about is QB Garretson. He has been efficient & has gotten better as the year has gone on, & actually averages 7.5 ypa, which is on par to have success, especially when NIU averages 7.6 ypa on defense. Regardless, I expect DeMartino to get plenty of carries. He is a Senior who has set behind 3 RB's that are on NFL rosters now, & he is making the most of his final year by gaining over 1,000 yds & averaging 5.24ypc. USU has 4 Senior starters, so they are experienced & tough.
As I said earlier, USU has faced plenty of good running offenses. They held Taysom Hill in check, who is Lynch-like. & have spent the last 2 years practicing against Chuckie Keeton. This will be the best front 7 NIU has played, & while I know Lynch will get some yards, but I expect it to be tough sledding.

This game is maybe my most confident game of the bowl season so far. Bowl season will see more MASTER's most likely b/c I spend so many hours looking at each game, as opposed to the regular season where there is more to choose from. I felt Wazzou should have covered, Tulane was the least confident master but I still think they should have covered, & Oregon St would have been a master (as I was very confident in them) but I just wanted to find a way to get a win after the start to this bowl season.

BOL tonight gang.
 
bought off Utah St a little in the 2nd half.
NIU pk - 2nd half

I didn't like how NIU was able to move the ball towards the end of the half.

Still win 3 units if Utah St wins, so GO AGGIES
 
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That was the 1st time I've ever bought off a game last night. It don't happen often obviously...Utah St was the better team for 50 minutes of the game, it's just too bad that the 10 minutes NIU was better was at the end of the 1st half, which scared me a little going into halftime.

Maryland ML (+135) ----- Reg
Maryland/Marshall O 65 ----- Small Potatoes

Don't have time for much of a write-up, I think Maryland is the better team when both teams are focused. Much like SDSU, Maryland plays inconsistent & up/down to their competition. So when a bowl game comes, I think they will play up up UP. I'd love to give a write up, but I don't have time. I'll go out on a limb & say that I can see this being a blow-out in favor of Maryland....something like 48-27 type of game. I could easily be wrong as well though.
BOL to all, be back later
 
Big Ups to Marshall for answering that 99 yd TD drive by Maryland....I thought that might have done it for Marshall, but they responded nicely. They also just dominated the field position battle.

Minnesota (-3) ----- Reg
Stong lean to the OVER but think I'll lay off
 
BYU (+6) ----- MASTERED
BYU/Wash U 65.5 ----- Small Potatoes

I think these 2 teams are move even than most would think. Wash does play in the PAC 12 & has played a difficult schedule, but BYU's schedule wasn't a walk-in-the-park.....I think it's a wash pretty much.
One of the biggest reasons for picking this game is clearly the motivation & the coaching edge. Wash may be happy to be here, or they may not care too much.....BYU will be happy to be here, & they have a good fan base in Cali. There's a CLEAR coaching edge in favor of BYU here, where Bronco has a 6-2 SU record in bowls including 4 straight.....vs M Tuili----who is in his first year & is now thrown into an interim position. I would like to think the players look at him as more of 1 of the boyz instead of a coach.
BYU's defense isnt as good as it was last year, but it still boast some of the most underrated players & has a very good & veteran linebacking core. I think their big d-line should cause some problems for Wash o-line & open up their LB's to make plays. Biggest concern is if Price gets hott & can hit some WR's, & especially hit them down the middle of the field by feeding off the run game. Regardless, BYU's defense still ranks in the tops in the nation in yards allowed/play.
I can see BYU's offense having success running the game, but if they don't then it's a big "if" on the shoulders of Taysom Hill.

Running out of time, but basically I just think this is a big coaching mismatch, & I don't think Washington is going to come to play. Whereas I believe BYU will certainly come to play, & has a great bowl coach who has had 3 weeks to shore up some things.
I really like the Under as well, but judging by my Totals record I shouldn't put too much on that garbage.
 
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Thanks Schrute. Thanks for stopping by


BYU the much much better team in the 1st half. Really sets up great for them in the 2nd half for all the plays Wash defense has been on the field.
SPECIAL TEAMS HATE ME TODAY!!!!!
 
Thanks yank. Really appreciate the support and positive vibes that go through here.

Recap of what is hopefully the worst day of the year for me....but regardless I'm fade material right now:

Maryland: basically just a sole gut play. Had a huge gut feeling that Maryland would blow them out of the water. Eh, well that did happen.

Minnesota: strictly thought Minn was the better team and had some quality wins....but then again that may just show how bad the Big 10 is. Also really liked the fact they were coming back to the same bowl they were real close to winning last year. Had a great chance of pushing which I would have been thrilled with, but Special Teams kills me.

BYU: basically have no regrets for this game. BYU was the better team IMO, and if they don't give up special teams TD's in the 1st half then I'm not too sure Washington even shows up for the 2nd half. In the 2nd half it seemed like BYU got away from what they were doing offensively, and some of that may have been from Washington adjustments....but regardless I'm SHOCKED they didn't try any double-moves and take deep shots bc Wash was biting on every short route. Easily a handful of special teams plays that made this game lose, along with a few very costly penalties and bad dropped balls to stall drives.

Normally I wouldn't play so many games, as that has been shown throughout the year. And normally I would back off....but I'm going to keep grinding through and enjoy the week of football we have left. I've had some bad reads on games, but overall on my bigger plays I feel like I have picked them pretty good, it just certainly doesn't show in the bankroll or record

Done with the Rant Review. The best of Bowl season is yet to come, with it really getting good on Monday.
 
HammersSpreads said:
Thanks yank. Really appreciate the support and positive vibes that go through here.

Recap of what is hopefully the worst day of the year for me....but regardless I'm fade material right now..... The best of Bowl season is yet to come, with it really getting good on Monday.
Click to expand...


there you go....appreciate your thread
 
Note Dame (-15) ----- Small potatoes
Rutgers TT U 20 ----- Small Potatoes


Basically just a strict fade of the team who I think has zero business being in a bowl game. Spite
 
Short on time. Been hanging with family today.


UNC (-2.5) x2 ----- reg
UNC/Cin O 57 ----- Small


I would go more but betting against Tubs has killed me this year.
 
L'Ville (-5.5)
Also opened a ML parlay with l'ville

I've tried to find every reason to pick Miami, especially with the ridiculous line movement today.....but I just can't see it. Ville has played a trash schedule, & has struggled down the stretch a bit, but has still been winning ball games after their loss. Miami's schedule wasn't anything to write home about, & they have struggled as well down the stretch.
Louisville (although the weak schedule helps it) is better all over the field. Better passing offense & defense, better run offense & defense, better 3rd down offense & defense, better red zone offense & defense, better in the turnover margin, etc. Lousiville has a stable of capable backs, while since Duke Johnson has gone down for Miami their run game has struggled....as Crawford has averaged under 4ypc down the stretch. I trust Bridgewater much more than Morris & it isn't even close...I see Morris making many more mistakes than Bridgewater in this game.
The best angle for Miami is that they haven't been to a bowl in a few years, & Louisville had BCS dreams to begin the season. However I combat this as different from Fresno & NIU b/c Ville got their dreams shattered over 2 months ago....not on the last game of the season. Also the fact that Miami is playing in their home state for this bowl game is looked at as an advantage....but on another note, L'Ville has almost 40 players hailing from Florida & they played against many of these Miami players in HS.
I like Charlie Strong more than Al Golden, & I have a hard time seeing Strong not getting his players fired up to play the once mighty Miami.
 
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K-State/Mich O 52 ----- Reg
K-State (-7) ----- Small Potatoes
Close out the ML Parlay: L'Ville/K-State (-101) ----- Small Potatoes

This line movement on this game is outrageous. Really takes all the value away from K-State....but since I said I was going to play every game, then I'll go w/ K-State. This play is very small though.

Michigan is going to have to get some form of run game going in order to win this game, & I'm just not sold that they can. They haven't really done it all year, & I don't know why it would change now. K-State run d has been pretty decent this year if you take away the OU game (& Michigan is nothing like OU in the run game). K-State allows less than 4ypc on defense, Michigan runs for less than 4ypc. K-State's rush offense got better throughout the year, as did their pass game, most notably their explosive plays. I don't think that Michigan can contain Hubert & Lockett through the whole game, & think Sams should have some success running as well.
Both teams are from weak conferences IMO, & have similar SOS...so I throw that out here.
Probably the biggest thing that I don't see people talking about is how the change at QB for Michigan effects their pass protection. Lewan wont be protecting the QB's blind side now, so I'm expecting Synder & company to really test the right side of Michigan's line & bring pressure. Another thing that isn't getting enough talk is the return of Ty Zimmerman for K-State's defense....he is the heart & soul of their team, & K-State is a MUCH MUCH better team w/ him out there.

Laying the chalk today, all day. K-State has no business being this big of a favorite in a bowl game, where for some reason Snyder hasn't done well, but I'll look for them to turn those fortunes today. I know K-State will be motivated & pumped for this game....& really think they win, & I'll hold my breathe for them to cover a TD.
 
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Ya Yanks that game just didn't make too much since to me. Same with the K-State game.....although the OVER was much closer to hitting, & it probably should have hit IMO. Good luck today buddy.


Obviously not excited/happy about the start of the bowl season.

The most telling part of it is my MASTERS. The funny thing is that I have actually really liked 6 total games to MASTER. The record sits at 1-3, & I ended up laying off & not MASTERing Oregon St & UNC b/c of the bad fortune I recieved from the other MASTERs. I feel like I have capped all of them pretty well & I think all of them had a fantastic job of being winners, but I ended up treading b/c of the misfortune.
The Bowl season gets good no IMO, so hopefully I can right-the-ship. I'll be back in a bit, hopefully will have time to throw some write-ups in. The morning game is the game I don't have a good feel for today, the rest I really like.
 
Navy/MTSU O 57 ----- Small Potatoes


Real quick, short on time and games about to kick. But basically I don't like betting option teams in bowl games. I really think Navy wins, probably covers.....and I almost did a teaser with navy and the over....but instead I'll just play the over. The over's have got to start hitting sometime!!! I think we see a 42--31 type game.


Statistically both teams are pretty identical. I could go into all them, but I'll leave it at that. However MTSU has an advantage at the fact navy only has 10 sacks on the year. And Navy has an advantage (and what I think will be the deciding factor) on Red Zone offense. Other than that the teams are pretty freaking close to each other. My biggest problem with MTSU is that they went on a nice 5 game win streak at the end of the year....but their last 4 opponents combined to win a total of 6 games on the year....and that's garbage.
 
Nothing is going right for the Over in the early game. It's pretty comical actually. Looks dead right now.




Ole Miss (-2.5) ----- MASTER


First off I'll talk about what I don't like: GT has a huge advantage in every facet of red zone offense and defense, and a slim/decent advantage on 3rd downs. The injury to starting LT Laremy T scares me a bit bc GT has a beast at DE who can pressure Bo. Ole Miss wins when Wallace plays good and doesn't turn the ball over....so this is obviously a concern.
The injuries/suspensions/etc to Scott and the WR don't scare me too much. Scott missed 5 games this year and Miss has 2 other capable RB's. They also still have their best 2 WR's (IMO) in Moncrief and Treadwell, and also get their young stud receiving TE back.
Even with these injuries and suspensions, this team is healthier than they have bee most of the season, especially defensively. Keep in mind how banged up they were when they played their brutal stretch earlier in the season, and kept the games close against Auburn, A&M, and won against LSU.
Ole Miss has lost when Wallace turned the ball over, and when the defense got gashed in the run game. With the extra weeks to prepare, and how many of these players have gotten game-time bc of all the injuries this year, I think Ole Miss should be ok. Furthermore, Ole Miss D-Coordinator used to coach the same position for GT a few years ago...which I think benefits the Rebels immensely. Getting extra weeks to prepare for an option team already does wonders for this match-up, and adding the fact that the DC knows this offense even better only helps.
Ole Miss is more battle tested IMO, and I think Wallace will have a big day today. GT turns the ball over, so I won't be surprised to see some costly fumbles. Miss should have a little bit of a home field advantage, PJ has not been good in bowls, and I like Freeze's swagger to get his team prepared today
 
Let's see if Ole Miss can blow this game for me with their special teams again. Funny thing is that I put 2 units on ole miss -1 for the 1st half on complete mistake lol. I'll take that


Texas (+14.5) ----- MASTER
Texas ML (+490) ----- Small Potatoes


First off, if Oregon shows up to play and play like they mean it, then they should wax Texas and cover this spread.


Obvious reason for this bet is bc I don't see Oregon too amped to be here. Complaining about how the Rose Bowl is nothing to them and now they find theirselves all the way in Texas at the Alamo Bowl....YIPPEE!!! Now Oregon decided to go off and take a little bit off my edge here by announcing their DC is retiring after this game, so that worries me a bit that they will come out more interested. Texas, however, I have ZERO doubts that they will show up to play and play hard. I"m a die-hard OU fan, but I can give it up to Mack Brown. He is a complete class-act and a real good man, and players love him. There's no way they don't come out and play their tail off for him.
I stated before the season, and before the OU game, that Texas one of the most talented teams in the NCAA. I said before the OU game that they had more talent and if they shows up to play then they could win the game. There has been 2 games where Texas players prob felt the need to play their asses off....OU where they completely dominated, and Baylor where they played really well in the 1st half then had no offensive help at one of the harder stadiums to play at in the 2nd half.
Texas defense can't stop the run and can't stop the QB run, we all know that. Their pass defense is pretty good. Everything points to Oregon being able to move the ball at will. But I'll call for Texas to mix it up on defense and give different looks, and for Jeffcoat to be an absolute force.
Offensively Texas is going to have to run the ball and control the clock, which I'm sure they will do. Worrisome bc of the thin offensive line. I'll also call for a lot of Tyrone Swoopes today as well, so look out.


I'd love to write more but my GF got her car broken into and it's hectic right now. But basically I think Texas will be much more motivated, and will bring new things to this game that Oregon hasn't seen.
 
Looks like Texas is a loser. Again, another game I would pick 100 times out of 100 times. Main basis of picking the game was b/c I didn't think Texas would beat theirselves.....& that is exactly what they did. Their defense has played wonderfully. Their offense w/ 3 huge drops, 2 pick 6's, etc.....very disappointing for Mack & for betters who had Texas.

Arizona St (-16) x2 ----- Reg
Arizona St TT O 43 ----- Small Potatoes
ASU/TT O 72 ----- Small Potatoes

Let's see how much worse I can do on totals here.
Basically, I have watched Texas Tech a lot....& have bet against them the back half of the season. They won 7 games against a weak schedule & have gotten demolished against better competition. Arizona St is the real deal & can run the ball (even w/o Grice if he doesn't play). I just don't think that extra time off will help them enough....hell it may hurt them more going that long w/o tackling. Defensively Arizona St gets sack-lunches and gets them a lot. Tech can negate this by their quick throws....but I still think ASU will get their fair share. Davis Webb is supposed to start, but I think we will see more Michael Brewer (or at least we should b/c he has a better chance of being the real deal).
 
To follow up more on the Texas game:


One of the biggest mistakes of the day (besides the two pick 6's, 2 drops on easy passes to convert 3rd down in the 1st half, & the dropped long ball by Mike Davis) was when Texas busted out a 40 yd run to get the ball to midfield w/ 3:30 left in the 1st half. They throw it 3 straight times to give the ball back to Oregon & the Ducks score. Texas, & most teams in general, try to outsmart themselves when they play teams like Oregon....you have to stick to what you're good at & run the ball. I also thought Swoopes should have seen more time, although it was a difficult situation to put him in.
Bottom line: Oregon covered as a 14.5pt favorite by getting 16 pts on offense. That's comical to say the least.


It looked like Mariota spent too much time at the bar the last few days w/ all those leg cramps in the 2nd half. Texas beat themselves & you can't give an unmotivated team gifts like Texas did.


As an OU fan I hate to see Mack Brown go. & as an OU fan I fear if Texas signs Charlie Strong or James Franklin. I still don't think Art Briles is going anywhere.
 
BC +7

Both teams run the ball very well, & both teams don't pass the ball very well. Arizona has a better SOS but not by too much, and both teams have good wins on their resume. Rush offense & defense is basically a wash.....same can be said for their passing offense & defense. However, Denker for Arizona has had some pretty good games when he has had to throw. Conversely, BC has a very impressive 7.5 yards/attempt compared to Arizona's 6.2....that is worrisome for Arizona backers IMO.
What I do like about this is Arizona's ability to distribute the ball better than BC. BC essentially has 1 WR in Amidon w/ 67 receptions....the next closest is 12 receptions (& no one else in double digits). Arizona has 9 players w/ double digit receptions, & 4 w/ over 25 receptions.
With a month to prepare I have got to believe that Arizona will stack up against Andre Williams (who still has a lingering shoulder injury) & still roll coverage to Amidon when necessary & make someone else beat them. Whereas Arizona can distribute the ball more when need-be.
Both teams should be able to run the ball efficiently, & I honestly trust the passing game of Zona more than BC...although BC has a good knack of getting to the QB. Another advantage that BC has is in the Red Zone scoring DAMN NEAR EVERY TIME going 28/29 on the year. However, if you look more into it, Arizona actually scores more TD's in the red zone than BC....so I'd rather back the team that can score more TD's in the red zone than FG's. Lastly, when looking at 2 teams that run the ball as much as these 2 teams, I have to go for the team who converts more 3rd downs....& Arizona has a pretty large advantage there.

I think Arizona is the better overall team, but I have to back BC getting all these points against a Rich Rod team. I don't like RR and I don't trust him. BC will prob be more motivated and Coach A will have his boys up for this to at least keep it close I hope
 
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