Group Games 1 Discussion Thread

braves

braves

Pretty much a regular
Thursday, June 14
MATCH TIME (PT) TV Russia
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Saudi Arabia8:00 AMFOX
Friday, June 15
MATCH TIME (PT) TV Egypt
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Uruguay5:00 AMFOXS1 Morocco
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Iran8:00 AMFOX Portugal
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Spain11:00 AMFOX
Saturday, June 16
MATCH TIME (PT) TV France
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Australia3:00 AMFOXS1 Argentina
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Iceland6:00 AMFOX Peru
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Denmark9:00 AMFOXS1Croatia
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Nigeria12:00 PMFOXS1
Sunday, June 17
MATCH TIME (PT) TV Costa Rica
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Serbia5:00 AMFOX Germany
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Mexico8:00 AMFOXS1 Brazil
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Switzerland11:00 AMFOXS1
Monday, June 18
MATCH TIME (PT) TV Sweden
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South Korea5:00 AMFOXS1 Belgium
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Panama8:00 AMFOXS1 Tunisia
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England11:00 AMFOXS1
Tuesday, June 19
MATCH TIME (PT) TV Colombia
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Japan5:00 AM FOXS1 Poland
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Senegal8:00 AMFOX
 
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initial thoughts
- russia/saudi- like saudis to get a result
-uruguay/egypt seems highly likely salah will not play vs Uruguay , lean under
- morocco /iran - lean morocco but doubt i get involved
- spain/portugal- will most likely be on Spain (with the rest of the world). Think Spain could put a number on them
-france/aussie- doubt i play, lean handicap on France
-argentina/iceland- ill bet either Iceland on handicap or under
-peru/denmark- watch and learn
-croatia/nigeria- watch and learn, hearing good things about Nigeria
-costa rica/serbia- probably just watch, but I don't know how you could take the over in this one
-germany/mexico- ill be on the under
-brazil/swiss- wont get involved
-sweden/south korea- sweden has got to go for it in this game, both teams really do
-belgium/panama- i hate laying big handicaps in this sport, but this could and should be ugly
- england/tunisia- should be an England win, but price will probably keep me away
-colombia/japan- don't think Japan will be as bad as everyone thinks, and Colombia is not as good as they were 4 years ago. probably won't get involved
-poland/senegal- very close to just locking in over.
 
Just realized I finally have lines

Early leans/likely plays

Uruguay handicap (think they might put up a number here)
Spain ML (agree w/braves and if it's true they're playing at more pace that could be a team total, don't have that. I'm a believer now)
Iceland handicap (Argie fade)
Peru handicap and ML (think they get at least a result here)
Nigera handicap (not so comfy with this, scary betting on an African team against an Eastern Euro one in Eastern Europe but Nigeria could be sneaky good)
Germany handicap (Mexico fade, not a bad team to have on my side either)
Swiss handicap (+1.25 seems a bit much for a pretty good European team against a SA team in Europe)
S Korea handicap and ML (not a fan of the Swedes)
Japan handicap (iffy on this one)
Senegal handicap and ML (see Nigeria above although Poland not Eastern, but I'm high on Senegal as it is)
 
If someone could get a good paste of all 16 of these games lines/totals that would be greatly appreciated
 
from the initial discussion thread

i know Germany is a favorite, but seeing the Mexicans catching a full goal at +115 is tempting
Click to expand...

Now +103 even with the prostitute scandal. I'm expecting GER money to come in up until kickoff, but don't want to lose the odds at +1
 
Yeah there is a reporter embedded with the team that basically disputes that the team is in turmoil , and that this was just a birthday party and the team is united as ever so who really knows
 
I think the bigger issues, at least from the people who follow and cover EL Tri is who is going to score goals?

[B]Nayib Morán[/B]‏ @[B]nayibmoran[/B] 10h10 hours ago
More
Mexico’s strikers.
Last goal with El Tri:
CH14: 10-7-17 v T&T
Raul: 11-13-17 v POL
Oribe: 10-11-17 v HON
Last meaningful goal with El Tri:
CH14: 6-18-17 v POR
Raul: 6-21-17 v NZ
Oribe: 6-21-17 v NZ

No goals with El Tri in 2018. In the Confederations, all scored 1 goal each.


[B]rán[/B]‏ @[B]nayibmoran[/B] 10h10 hours ago
More
How about club-level in 2018? Goals in all competitions.
CH14: 4 goals
Raul: 6 goals
Oribe: 3 goals

Raul also picked up six assists in 2018, while Oribe didn’t score a single goal in America’s CONCACAF Champions League run but did get five assists. #ElTrieng
 
I was in fade Mexico form well before this "scandal". As just mentioned, how the hell are they gonna score? They've looked a mess every time I've watched them, at least recently
 
KJ said:
I was in fade Mexico form well before this "scandal". As just mentioned, how the hell are they gonna score? They've looked a mess every time I've watched them, at least recently
Click to expand...

funny part to both of your points is that I read a WC preview saying Mexico's D was its biggest question-mark
 
GWarner27 said:
funny part to both of your points is that I read a WC preview saying Mexico's D was its biggest question-mark
Click to expand...

Yeah they have some issue / injury concern at CB.

What I’m seeing regarding Mexcico is they are already conceding Germany game and more concerned with how they will get at the minimum 4 pts out of the next 2 games , maybe 6, and the concerns are their inability to finish
 
Seeing in your mind or reading from experts? And how would they do that? Try to win? Park the bus?

I can’t imagine them totally conceding that one as three points would nearly clinch an advancement, but could see an extreme counter-attack only gameplan that nearly places 11 on their side of midfield and they try to do what Julian Green did to France.

As for the next two, Sweden and South Korea can certainly result in four, but then they’re at the mercy of GD or the Germans rotating for the last matchup with Sweden once they’ve clinched.

I also think Mexico is too proud/their coach is too much of a soccer scientist to do that
 
I should clarify , the Mexican media is already conceding the Germany match , but yeah I don’t see them coming out and playing any type of attacking formation in that game . I strongly believe it will be conservative . The risk of going for it outweighs the small possibility of getting 3 points from Germany.

Osorio and a lot of those players have two games that they can’t shake against high level competition ( 7-1 loss to Chile in 2016 , and 4-1 loss to Germany in 2017), so I just cannot see how they go for it in this game , but there will be shocking results in the WC, and Mexico isn’t some dump team like Panama so certainly it’s possible
 
if they go down 1-0 what happens?

I'm thinking play for a one-goal loss, and, while Germany won't be content with it, they'll take a non-lopsided three points in the opener. If I bet MEX, i'm hoping they make it to the 75th minute tied or somehow sneak a goal on a counter and then park the f-ing bus
 
meant to reply to both of these, here goes...

braves said:
initial thoughts
- russia/saudi- like saudis to get a result
-uruguay/egypt seems highly likely salah will not play vs Uruguay , lean under
- morocco /iran - lean morocco but doubt i get involved
- spain/portugal- will most likely be on Spain (with the rest of the world). Think Spain could put a number on them
-france/aussie- doubt i play, lean handicap on France
-argentina/iceland- ill bet either Iceland on handicap or under
-peru/denmark- watch and learn
-croatia/nigeria- watch and learn, hearing good things about Nigeria
-costa rica/serbia- probably just watch, but I don't know how you could take the over in this one
-germany/mexico- ill be on the under
-brazil/swiss- wont get involved
-sweden/south korea- sweden has got to go for it in this game, both teams really do
-belgium/panama- i hate laying big handicaps in this sport, but this could and should be ugly
- england/tunisia- should be an England win, but price will probably keep me away
-colombia/japan- don't think Japan will be as bad as everyone thinks, and Colombia is not as good as they were 4 years ago. probably won't get involved
-poland/senegal- very close to just locking in over.
Click to expand...

i'm considering making a play on RUS not to advance. A poor showing in the opener as the only game on may have some big ramifications to management and if they lose they are in huge trouble. I think the whole world has a ton of confidence in Uruguay, which is concerning, but it'd give me three possibilities vs quite possibly the worst host ever as I keep hearing. Wish I had any way to understand if Salah is playing, but that's going to be a well-kept secret until he's in a lineup. In terms of the group, I guess g1 vs the favorite isn't as critical but it could mean Uruguay rotates in g3 so that's a big deal.

Everyone seems to like Spain as you mentioned

intrigued to hear some positive thoughts on Iceland. Seems like everyone's calling their Euro success a fluke, but the talent at that tournament is often better than the WC's so I think it may be foolish to think that way.

I took Peru to advance, but i'm not sure +0.25 is enough to get me to play. Worried about Eriksen, but if Peru plays really well then it probably will limit what we get vs FRA (especially after that disappointing performance vs USA)

Also warming up to Nigeria, but I feel like that happens every four years and they disappoint. Sounds like their talent is better than it's been, but here we go buying into something that is always wrong because it just might be right this year

Trying myself to balance what we saw from CR in the last WC and their great GK versus age + CONCACAF

SK seems to have some talent, but most Asian sides seem to play conservatively/possession-focused/defensive. Sweden had the knock of playing no defense, which Ibra didn't affect imho, but now that he's not there the team is somehow much better because they play more of a team game? Unsure how that improves the defense a ton

Japan seems to be stingy, but with the brand new coach i'm not sure we can expect much from them. Part of me doesn't think everyone should be handing Group H to Colombia, but there are questions about Poland and Senegal seems to be a trendy pick based on offensive players. Can't blame any over with Lewandowski

KJ said:
Just realized I finally have lines

Early leans/likely plays

Uruguay handicap (think they might put up a number here)
Spain ML (agree w/braves and if it's true they're playing at more pace that could be a team total, don't have that. I'm a believer now)
Iceland handicap (Argie fade)
Peru handicap and ML (think they get at least a result here)
Nigera handicap (not so comfy with this, scary betting on an African team against an Eastern Euro one in Eastern Europe but Nigeria could be sneaky good)
Germany handicap (Mexico fade, not a bad team to have on my side either)
Swiss handicap (+1.25 seems a bit much for a pretty good European team against a SA team in Europe)
S Korea handicap and ML (not a fan of the Swedes)
Japan handicap (iffy on this one)
Senegal handicap and ML (see Nigeria above although Poland not Eastern, but I'm high on Senegal as it is)
Click to expand...

the African team vs eastern Euro team makes me wonder how bad the racist stuff is gonna get here and how that could impact this tournament. Could FIFA step in and dock points or is that unheard of? Definitely could see sanctions for qualifying for 2022, but idk if there's anything here

Also sounds like you're taking location into strong effect, which i thought died
 
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In regards to Iceland many people forget they finished the top of their qualifying group , which included Croatia , I don’t see them as a one hit wonder , they will compete

As for Poland , Lewy may be the best #9 in the tournament , and this is also a team that also gave up 14 goals in 10 qualifying games ( only 1 clean sheet , and not a particularly great group). It’s more about their inability to defend that has me interested in their overs.
 
I don't think location will ever really die in these things, but Russia seems a different animal to me. In fairness and in general, I do treat Eastern Europe a bit differently due to travel, etc in club competitions as well...going to be a bit of travel for teams even between matches here.

And fwiw I don't think any host nation can be worse than S Africa

And Iceland will play very good defense and nothing seems to frustrate Argentina than throwing off their timing and scoring ability. Gylfi plenty capable of disrupting a somewhat leaky Argie back line on paper as well.

Imo a wager on Poland is basically a wager on Lewy which isn't necessarily nuts, I'm really leaning toward over there and will take the hit if it goes up. Want to see how things are going early on.
 
The hardest part of this tournament is all we really have to go on with most of these teams is what they did in qualifying and recent friendlies , but you gotta be careful with friendlies . A lot of coaches are just trying shit( especially the big teams, France, Germany, Spain, etc) . As for qualifiers they were 8 months ago or longer so things can certainly change .

Two teams come to mind from last WC, Mexico was on the brink of not qualifying had a horrible qualification run then they make it to knockout rounds . Costa Rica , no one predicted the success they would have and they win a group that included Uruguay, England , and Italy .

First match day games are tough ( at least for me), so I try to not go overboard , buts it’s hard not to want to have a bet on every game haha.
 
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Yup when every game has its own stage, especially early for us...hard not to have something on every game lol
 
My opinion didn’t change much of France based on USA result ( though USA have a keeper for the next 10 years), play that game again and they win 5-0. Perfect storm of poor finishing , and likelihood of that happening again with their world class players is small.
 
Tbh I didn't even look at scores from this last week of friendlies for a reason, think only thing I saw was Navas giving up a goal and about 5 mins of US/France
 
Costa Rica isn’t nearly as organized defensively as they were 4 years ago, and they really struggled when England pressed them in spots.

Didn’t see their Belgium friendly but Gave up 4 goals
 
KJ said:
I don't think location will ever really die in these things, but Russia seems a different animal to me. In fairness and in general, I do treat Eastern Europe a bit differently due to travel, etc in club competitions as well...going to be a bit of travel for teams even between matches here.

And fwiw I don't think any host nation can be worse than S Africa

And Iceland will play very good defense and nothing seems to frustrate Argentina than throwing off their timing and scoring ability. Gylfi plenty capable of disrupting a somewhat leaky Argie back line on paper as well.

Imo a wager on Poland is basically a wager on Lewy which isn't necessarily nuts, I'm really leaning toward over there and will take the hit if it goes up. Want to see how things are going early on.
Click to expand...


What’s the travel for some of these teams , I remember Brazil being kinda nuts
 
braves said:
In regards to Iceland many people forget they finished the top of their qualifying group , which included Croatia , I don’t see them as a one hit wonder , they will compete

As for Poland , Lewy may be the best #9 in the tournament , and this is also a team that also gave up 14 goals in 10 qualifying games ( only 1 clean sheet , and not a particularly great group). It’s more about their inability to defend that has me interested in their overs.
Click to expand...

Nice to hear this about ISL as they’ve got an awesome story, meanwhile everybody else is burying them so you’re out on an island (cwidt)

Poles seem to have this story every year, also in the most balanced group so I’m not sure being second-most likely to advance is very comforting and three matches isn’t quite enough to bet Lewandowski golden boot even if he’s going to take all the penals
 
braves said:
My opinion didn’t change much of France based on USA result ( though USA have a keeper for the next 10 years), play that game again and they win 5-0. Perfect storm of poor finishing , and likelihood of that happening again with their world class players is small.
Click to expand...

I think it speaks to their talent never really coming together as a team, which is a theme for them that they need to disprove before we trust them to advance in this tournament. USA was clearly inferior, but really was never in danger of not getting a result and played hardly anybody I’d heard of besides Wood

braves said:
Costa Rica isn’t nearly as organized defensively as they were 4 years ago, and they really struggled when England pressed them in spots.

Didn’t see their Belgium friendly but Gave up 4 goals
Click to expand...

Missed it also, but Nevas played so that’s a concern. Sounds like CR is old, but that magic from years before compared to others who haven’t done it makes me want to lean toward that success before reusing another side to do it for the first time (having the UCL champion GK doesn’t hurt that narrative either)
 
The sporting director Hierro takes over , probably going be a pretty smooth transistion or as best they could do in the circumstances .
 
Be like Steve Fisher taking over for Michigan in 1989

Come to think of it this is eerily similar to that situation . Spain coach says I’m moving on to Real Madrid after I coach Spain in the World Cup, like Bo in 89 Spain FA president says “ the hell you will bye”
 
Sounds like HR and security walking someone out the instant they put their 2 weeks in
 
All I know is a Racoon in Minnesota was sky scraping a tall building.

A dare devil Racoon.

Time to get pumped for World Cup. Get into daredevil Racoon mode. Bet like a starving Racoon looking for winners.
 
braves said:
The sporting director Hierro takes over , probably going be a pretty smooth transistion or as best they could do in the circumstances .
Click to expand...

Dont think it changes anything at all, maybe some in game adjustments but even those kind of take care of themselves with a national squad

With a younger squad maybe its a distraction, but with a core of iniesta, biscuits, alba, pique, and ramos they have enough leadership
 
So this game tomorrow is at 9am here in the metromess. The first game.
Good . I have a guy coming to fix my sprinkler system. I'll be house bound until that's over.
oh wait, US open. Dang. Then I have to work Fri/Sat/Sun.
Luckily , there's streaming in this century.
 
First game should be 10 your time I think

My f'n sleep schedule didn't need this, not that tomorrow is an issue but the next month in general. We get 5am games yay!
 
KJ said:
First game should be 10 your time I think

My f'n sleep schedule didn't need this, not that tomorrow is an issue but the next month in general. We get 5am games yay!
Click to expand...

guess who's gonna be showing up early for work each day!!!
 
You will call me crazy, but I think the Russians advance. They are the home team and I firmly believe betting manipulation is happening in their favour. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 3-0 today to start things off.
 
Russia should advance. Even if Salah plays he won't be fit, that's why Egypt are +150 or so to advance. Think today's game will suck
 
Red card for a Saudi and the rout is on.

Thinking about it.

Red card in the game +400 and
Russia to convert a penalty +600 are very appealing and I don't have to worry about the end result.
 
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