Great spot for Seattle

tuck321

tuck321

Not all those who wander are lost
Hard to beat second game in a four in 5 for Boston when they next play at Utah and the Lakers and its Ray's first game back home. Real question is which ways to bet it.
 
Actually it looks like you could play all 3 home teams and get at least a 2-1 ats result.
 
Have played Dallas minus 6.5. Seattle is going up so no hurry there and will be playing the Clippers. GL
 
tuck321 said:
Actually it looks like you could play all 3 home teams and get at least a 2-1 ats result.
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I had the same thinking, except I started a game early, and lost the Kings tonight :down2:

I'm lovin the fade for the next 3 though
 
SF_capper said:
wouldn't ray's first game back be a plus for Boston?
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Depends on the crowd reaction, and Ray Ray's personality. Will he be the type that will walk into the stadium and have his mind filled with Seattle memories or can he keep that out of his mind (or at least not let it effect his play).
 
I think the point is that what does Boston have to prove by beating Seattle? They're on a B2B with 2 more road games against Utah and LAL. Beating SEA by 30 doens't mean a thing to Boston while they beating UTA and LA would be big. They got the first one out of the way on the trip and this game above all others is a huge letdown spot.
 
And I'm sure Ray Ray will get a huge ovation and that'll be nice, but he doesn't have any resentment towards the organization. I see no reason for him to be super motivated one way or the other. It'll be nice for him to be back in SEA, but very small deal to the team with two big matchups looming.
 
There are quite a few angles coming into play in all these games. With Seattle however I see that situation as very different from Minn plus you might ask yourself the real feelings of Allan and Garnett toward Utah and the Lakers. I think those emotions are very clear and this spot should be down time before the wars start.
 
agreed about the flat spot for Boston. Was just checking about what you guys' thoughts on Ray's comeback to seattle. I don't think it's too important. Sac's near comeback could've sparked a bit in Boston's motivation though
 
also, talk a bit about the Clips. No line yet, and they probably will try extra hard for this one, knowing they got no shot on Friday @ Phoenix, but not sure I wanna fade Phoenix off the Christmas loss
 
There is only one game on this trip which makes any sense to go against Boston. Sunday night at Staples Center. Take the Lakers in that game with relative confidence. How you could take Seattle tomorrow night hoping for a cover and an unlikely victory is beyond me??

Utah plays Friday night at the Lakers. Boston will be resting comfortably in Utah. In other words the Jazz will be in the bad spot on Saturday. That's not to say Boston can't lose the game but the real spot to against them is Sunday when they play their 4th game in 5 nights to end the road trip.

Betting on bad teams = bad results.

Slice it and dice it anyway you want but I watched the Sonics play a few times this year and they're brutal. I wouldn't want hundreds of dollars on that team.

GLTU
 
Why you folks are even contemplating betting this game is beyond me? This is just a very good team vs. a very bad one. There is no reason to get involved in this. Do yourself a favor, go grocery shopping, maybe get a little action, go out on a date, take a walk or simply watch the game without a real interest.
 
Would be more inclined to agree with Handy here. Boston really hasn't proven itself as big road chalk ( ex: Char , Indy , Sac and Philly) but they havent exactly disappointed either. There schedule has been a joke and havent even played B2B away games yet and only 4 B2B situations to date.

Seattle is pretty terrible despite there 5-5 record past 10. There extremely inconsistent from one night to the next. They may have even regressed offensively. Who else besides Durant and Wally Z are providing offense??

Even at 75% peak performance for Boston could they not win by 10? With all the hoopla about Boston west coast swing they won by 20 in Sac and allowed 69. So maybe the C's are abit flat is that enough? If Boston was -10 @ Philly I dont understand why these games Sac and Seattle are below 10. If they made it tough like -12 or so then there could be some value and the opener vs PHO the sonics caught 11. Actuallly SA was -10 on 11/25 in Seattle real suprised how cheap they are opening Bos now that I look at it. All it took was quarter for SA to cover it happened to be the 4th. Tonight for Bos it was the 2nd.

There should be some value in LAL on Sunday but books are aware of the situation and may over adjust the line. They havent had much of tough road yet so they come in pretty fresh and healthy for this trip.I couldnt lay many agains Bos even in a tough spot...

:cheers:
 
Also who would Ray Allen be getting up for? His coach is in Portland , Lewis is in Orlando , Wilkins , Collison , Wilcox...these guys are nobodies and newbies ......think it's a non factor for the most part. Better chance is to wait till halftime with a big lead you may see Boston coast.
 
great stuff here, some interesting points here indeed....

what about the other games, any interest in the cavs-mavs game???

i lost a few dimes to the mavs earlier, mavs were just awful, didn't expect their streak to end (didnt expect okur to play either), jason terry was 0-10fg and 0-6 3fg...

cavs on the other hand has a little thing going on after struggling w/ their defense badly... lebron is starting to get people involved, i was supposed to bet on the cavs had the mavs won tonight...

any thoughts??
 
I think we could start discussing that Lakers bet for Sunday already...what do you expect the line to be? Pk?
 
Sportsnut who will regularly talk about games and express his own opinions which are worthwhile is certainly worth responding to. Yes a second half play on Seattle is reasonable. Its what I actually did last night with the Kings. It is also prudent. Would agree to that. Would also agree beating up the Kings yesterday is not the same as beating the Lakers at home and then playing at Charlotte. with less rest than today. There are similarities but the Charlotte play was stronger in many ways than here.
So why bother? Not sure. Boston started with 7 ats covers. Since then its been 4 broken up 2 game ats covers until yesterday where they got their third consecutive ats cover. Its a Thursday game. If that means nothing then a review of dog results on Thursday is in order. The books opened it at 8.5 knowing it would be pounded. Its currently 9.5 and I expect 10.5 by game time.Was that just an accident? Seattle gave very little effort really at Portland scoring 79 points and losing by 10. The point being that it is very likely they show up today and while Boston could beat them by 30 it would involve real effort when they really need to be looking to conserve their energy for the next 2 games. Seattle at home against quality teams is only 3-4 ats. They have been hammered by Spurs, Hornets,Orlando, and GS, They covered vs Detroit, Phoenix and Utah. Those losses though. Its simply a rule that Spurs crush Seattle. Not sure where it was passed but that is a law. NO game was on 3 days rest where Seattle never covers. Orlando was in the worst 4-6 variation. Only GS was a game where they might cover.
What it really comes down to is there are a lot of interesting features. I win almost every day anyway and I enjoy making low stake close calls occasionally. So put the cuffs on, I admit my guilt. I mentioned playing a dog that might lose on a Thursday game where the dogs are currently 13-6 this season. Convicted felon, do I lose my voting rights?
 
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tuck321 said:
Sportsnut who will regularly talk about games and express his own opinions which are worthwhile is certainly worth responding to. Yes a second half play on Seattle is reasonable. Its what I actually did last night with the Kings. It is also prudent. Would agree to that. Would also agree beating up the Kings yesterday is not the same as beating the Lakers at home and then playing at Charlotte. with less rest than today. There are similarities but the Charlotte play was stronger in many ways than here.
So why bother? Not sure. Boston started with 7 ats covers. Since then its been 4 broken up 2 game ats covers until yesterday where they got their third consecutive ats cover. Its a Thursday game. If that means nothing then a review of dog results on Thursday is in order. The books opened it at 8.5 knowing it would be pounded. Its currently 9.5 and I expect 10.5 by game time.Was that just an accident? Seattle gave very little effort really at Portland scoring 79 points and losing by 10. The point being that it is very likely they should up today and while Boston could beat them by 30 it would involve real effort when they really need to be looking to conserve their energy for the next 2 games. Seattle at home against quality teams is only 3-4 ats. They have been hammered by Spurs, Hornets,Orlando, and GS, They covered vs Detroit, Phoenix and Utah. Those losses though. Its simply a rule that Spurs crush Seattle. Not sure where it was passed but that is a law. NO game was on 3 days rest where Seattle never covers. Orlando was in the worst 4-6 variation. Only GS was a game where they might cover.
What it really comes down to is there are a lot of interesting features. I win almost every day anyway and I enjoy making low stake close calls occasionally. So put the cuffs on, I admit my guilt. I mentioned playing a dog that might lose on a Thursday game where the dogs are currently 13-6 this season. Convicted felon, do I lose my voting rights?
Click to expand...

Interesting stuff. So what do you attribute the DOG run to on Thursdays? Are books inflating the favs because they are on TV ? Of course they have always been on TV but whats the background on this trend . In that case would they possible be deflating home dogs if that was the scenario? I say that cause by inflating a fav your sucking out the value to do so on a HomeDog you would have to open it short for the same effect.

Why the opened the Seattle game at 8.5 is probably nothing more then simply seeing Seattle as a shade worse then Sac. I think once you see certain numbers on the road it tends to entice home dog action because people make the mistake of saying well 8 in Sea means 15 in Bos and thats to many. Just an example. When really what happens is the elite teams tend to erase the so called HCA priced into line. Perfect example Det @ NJ last nite. Just like the Pats in the NFL despite there quick start I do NOT believe books are getting killed on these teams. You rarely see there lines get bet up. How many Bos lines even close 1.5 pts higher then the open. There seemed to be more then a few willing to take a stab at Sac last nite . So no conspiracy in my eyes but certainly this is a new situation for Boston cause they have not played B2B road games yet.

Seattle would be wise to push the ball up court and force Boston to run and exert energy. Cause I disagree in the fact it will take much effort from Boston to win by DD , I know you said 30 but really all we care about is 10 pts. Now you mentioned how Seattle played vs good teams and were 3-4 ATS. My problem with that and it goes to the point of thinking SEA has regressed some is that those Det , Utah and Pho games were all very early in the year. Pistons were not playing like they are today and Utah and Pho have both proven to me that there play on the road is not of elite performance. The 4 ATS losses have all come in there recent meeting sv quality teams. The point about SA always beating them down could be due to the fact SA plays defense and doesnt give up easy baskets and I could see them forcing Sea into alot of contested jumpers. Which we know Bos can play defense and really make teams work for there points. Also NO and ORL at times play solid defense so that may be the tie in factor for the losses. Inability to score vs solid defensive teams.

So Tuck you are GUILTY of being an indivual and free thinker ! I do agree there are some ' interesting' angles here but I still think the best avenue would be to follow suit and sit out till halftime like you did vs Sac and hope for that big lead we can watch get erased.Maybe the Ray Allen ceremony is a distraction for Boston , who knows. Seattle is 8-6 ATS past 14...I just feel scheduling wise Boston has had it so easy thats its tough to say there are gonna tire out. One thing I would say is Seattle tends to be a 1st H team so sitting out the 1st H tends to go against the grain in how to play Sea games.

Good Luck. :cheers:
 
I would like Seattle if they got 14+

They might cover 8.5 but I can't see any value, because Boston is basically 25 points better.
 
Always dangerous spot because Boston can name their number. It's just a question of resting starters and doing just as much as necessary to win because they are on a long road trip.
 
posey55 said:
Depends on the crowd reaction, and Ray Ray's personality. Will he be the type that will walk into the stadium and have his mind filled with Seattle memories or can he keep that out of his mind (or at least not let it effect his play).
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Crowd reaction?? there are fans in the stands at seattle games still?
 
That was one lousy bet on Seattle that happen to cover

Can't wait to read who thought that was a great bet on Seattle!!! It was anything but a lucky cover at the end.

Betting on bad teams guarantees one thing = bad results
 
handy said:
Can't wait to read who thought that was a great bet on Seattle!!! It was anything but a lucky cover at the end.

Betting on bad teams guarantees one thing = bad results
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and if i said that Seattle bet was a great read? what are you going to say about that?

I guess should go along with some of the other moose's that have happened this season? Shall i name a few of them?
 
Took 10 for the game. Had no reasonable action at halftime unlike the Clipper game. Still lost slightly for the day with the Dallas disaster and vig. Tough day of the week to play favorites.
 
Yeah, it's amazing how TNT Thursday night games seem to go the houses way more times than not.

I liked Cleveland's chances tonight but not enough to bet on them prior to the game. I grabbed them on the in game line.

There was no way I would bet the Sonics vs. anyone in the NBA. I'm just not interested in betting on a team which is likely to lose a game. Ten pts. is nothing in the NBA.

Slam the Utah Jazz Friday night and your life will be as dandy as a capper named HAndy!!!
 
Well congrats at least on SEA. A win is a win . The way I see it the game was exactly what we thought it was. You had a good chance of winning or losing in the final minutes. The fact that SEA didnt let it get past 14 is why kept them a float. Plus Bos could of just ranouyt the clock basically. I had thought about the 2nd H but if I didnt like +10 orginally why effectively take +8. You had to figure two heavy bet road chalks in Pho and Bos one had to fall. Did want the 2nd H over but I tend to get distratced with 2nd H's and went off. I played only Cle +7 . Said it someones thread( Master P?) they were only 10-8 SU heading into this game last 18 games and simply not playing well. Terry slumping and LBJ will not be held to 10 pts again since he owns DALLAS.

I wouldnt say that about SEA they are a pretty decent 1st H team to back but everyone has there preferences. Your right though tough to take a team when you feel or rationalize there chances of winning SU are minimal at best.

I do like Utah tmrw but not cause of the sandwich spot so much. More cause I think if your gonna set PHO as -2.5 you have to make LAL -2 vs Utah. So 4 is a bit inflated IMO after the win vs PHO on national tv.

Alot of games but not much of note.....BOL all:cheers:
 
ok maybe I'm a square, but LA was looking pretty good to me

Got huge ESPN revenge and Utah got Boston the next day at home. Utah been ass on the road
 
For me it really doesnt have anything to do with the Boston game. While they may give extra effort or be highly motivated on Sunday that should NOT take away from the performance on Friday. Thats my belief.

Little concerned about backing Utah on the road. However I simply do NOT see the logic behind making LAL -4 other then they burned the betting public on Christmas and maybe that gives them the green light to pump up this line slightily. Probably should be about -1.5 / -2 , recently LAL was only -3 vs GSW. They played twice this year with both home teams winning fairly easily. First meeting Odom missed but the 2nd meeting Okur and Boozer were absent. Remember I was saying back in the Utah/Dallas thread if you make a team -5.5 at one venue then they will be -3 in the other venue. So if you make a team -7.5 in one venue then well your gonna mke them around -1 / 1.5 . Utah only dogged 3 times away going 3-1 recently winning @ Orlando as +4 now what was Orlando in LA( just -1) ? So I feel I have a good basis for this game being -2. This is about getting a feel for how teams should be priced not comparisions. Also back in the 1st meeting LAL really played extremely well in the 2nd H where he I think we see a much more evenly balanced game..

Deron Williams has killed LAL this year and I expect that continue. Boozer and anyone Utah puts in the post could have a big day see what Millsap did in his absence. If there was to be a letdown performance it would be here. They go East play well away and come home for a big XMas day matchup vs Suns which they led throughout. Probably spending Thursday with there families. Tough to fade a HOT team which is why you dont go crazy here. Most of there recent games have been close wins so while its probably crazy I expect this game to be decided late and by 1 possession....LAL needs someone besides Kobe to step up vs Utah and Fisher and Bynum must play like they have recently...


I truly think like CLE tonite they needed that 1 game to get back to the basics and start playing well. For Utah that was Dallas and I expect it to carry over..and the Salt Lake City Tribune seems to feel the same way...since the wrote an article about.


:cheers:
 
SportsNut said:
For me it really doesnt have anything to do with the Boston game. While they may give extra effort or be highly motivated on Sunday that should NOT take away from the performance on Friday. Thats my belief.

Little concerned about backing Utah on the road. However I simply do NOT see the logic behind making LAL -4 other then they burned the betting public on Christmas and maybe that gives them the green light to pump up this line slightily. Probably should be about -1.5 / -2 , recently LAL was only -3 vs GSW. They played twice this year with both home teams winning fairly easily. First meeting Odom missed but the 2nd meeting Okur and Boozer were absent. Remember I was saying back in the Utah/Dallas thread if you make a team -5.5 at one venue then they will be -3 in the other venue. So if you make a team -7.5 in one venue then well your gonna mke them around -1 / 1.5 . Utah only dogged 3 times away going 3-1 recently winning @ Orlando as +4 now what was Orlando in LA( just -1) ? So I feel I have a good basis for this game being -2. This is about getting a feel for how teams should be priced not comparisions. Also back in the 1st meeting LAL really played extremely well in the 2nd H where he I think we see a much more evenly balanced game..

Deron Williams has killed LAL this year and I expect that continue. Boozer and anyone Utah puts in the post could have a big day see what Millsap did in his absence. If there was to be a letdown performance it would be here. They go East play well away and come home for a big XMas day matchup vs Suns which they led throughout. Probably spending Thursday with there families. Tough to fade a HOT team which is why you dont go crazy here. Most of there recent games have been close wins so while its probably crazy I expect this game to be decided late and by 1 possession....LAL needs someone besides Kobe to step up vs Utah and Fisher and Bynum must play like they have recently...


I truly think like CLE tonite they needed that 1 game to get back to the basics and start playing well. For Utah that was Dallas and I expect it to carry over..and the Salt Lake City Tribune seems to feel the same way...since the wrote an article about.


:cheers:
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thank you sir. very nice writeup. probably enough to sell me on Utah 2m. have to see. What you think of Denver/GS?
 
SF_capper said:
can't you say the same about Utah for Saturday?
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You might be right but I was talking on behalf of Handyman :smiley_acbe:

This is complete guesswork given nobody can know what these players are thinking but the logic in this instance would be:

1/ Jazz go all out Friday night thinking realistically their best chance is to win on Friday than having to face a rested Celtics team on the B2b who would apart from perhaps a light shootaround on Friday rest up in SLC.

2/ Celtics put the cleaners through Jazz on the Saturday after the Jazz are basking in their SU win from the night before.

3/ Lakers get the Celtics on their last game of the West coast trip, 4th game in 5 days and being the last game on the board on Sunday beat them SU as most likely a couple point dog.

So in a nutshell the trilogy of plays would be: Jazz ATS/ML Friday, Celtics ATS Saturday, Lakers ATS/ML on Sunday.

I'm sure Handy can correct me if this is not what his plan was. I'm going to do it myself, confident I can go at a minimum 2-1 with those 3 plays.
 
rod_steel said:
You might be right but I was talking on behalf of Handyman :smiley_acbe:
This is complete guesswork given nobody can know what these players are thinking but the logic in this instance would be:

1/ Jazz go all out Friday night thinking realistically their best chance is to win on Friday than having to face a rested Celtics team on the B2b who would apart from perhaps a light shootaround on Friday rest up in SLC.

2/ Celtics put the cleaners through Jazz on the Saturday after the Jazz are basking in their SU win from the night before.

3/ Lakers get the Celtics on their last game of the West coast trip, 4th game in 5 days and being the last game on the board on Sunday beat them SU as most likely a couple point dog.

So in a nutshell the trilogy of plays would be: Jazz ATS/ML Friday, Celtics ATS Saturday, Lakers ATS/ML on Sunday.

I'm sure Handy can correct me if this is not what his plan was. I'm going to do it myself, confident I can go at a minimum 2-1 with those 3 plays.
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Utah has stunk up most away games this season while defending their home court. Several of the lost away games were winnable on paper, but they didn't fokus their efforts on these weaker teams. Boston is a new and exciting team to meet, and they need to save energy to beat them.

Lakers could come out flat after two days break, or with new energy from the kwanzaa teambuilding. They are 2-0 on two days rest.

Perhaps Sportsnut is right that the line should rather have been -2, but considering the huge lookahead for the Jazz tomorrow and their general road woes I would not bite at Utah +4 .
 
Here is a possibly simple question that actually has a possibly simple answer. Why did the Lakers beat the Suns? Its not a trick question. I think it can be answered in 5 words.
 
Possible. But if that was the answer I was looking for there would have been no point to the question. I am not looking for philosophy, voodu, or karma as answers here. Why did they win the game?
 
Clearly I understand the hype around Boston but seriously you guys are making them sound like the 6 time World Champion Bulls with MJ and the boyz. What has this team accomplished ? Okay they have 3 veteran HOF's on the roster probably a shade past there primes. Very , very nice .

What have they done? Who have they beat? Why in the world would any upper tier NBA team be shaking in there boots to face them? Why would any upper tier NBA team think they were beaten by Boston before the game was played? I think teams are excited to face Boston to see what they are made of 1st hand but nobody at this point needs to conserve energy and effort to play. Seriously this is basketball who is conserving energy. Any in shape basketball player can run all day the game is not that physical . Fairly confident NBAers are in shape and fatigue isnt a problem at game 35. Look what LAL did playing 8 games in 13 days..

Look at Boston's schedule it's a freaking joke. People keep shitting on Utah and yes they underperformed but 15 of 21 away with Four 3 game road trips compared to Boston not playing 3 straight away all year! If your playing well you can overcome but if your not how do yu get back on track with that type schedule. You know what makes a team great? Consistency! The same team showing up each game. Thats what makes NE great this year.

At home Boston played 5 tough games Denver , GSW , LAL , Det and ORL. Sure they are 4-1 in those games but the only team playing well at the time of the matchup won and that was DET.

They caught Denver off a SU loss to NY the previous night where they were outscored by 17 in the 4th quarter and lost by 7. You know DEN is coming out flat. With GSW it was there 3rd away in 4 days . One @ Toronto , then traveled to NY and won easily and had to play a rested Boston team on a B2B while in there 3rd city. Same thing with LAL there 3rd road game in 4 days but it was not a B2B this time. No need to illustrate how ORL is slumping lately. I think last nite in Sea showed alot how just any sort of obstacle can level the playing field some. It's one of those areas you cant weigh to heavily and you cant ignore either.

On the road lost @ Orl and @ Cle whil beating a health Tor in OT. So they are 5-3 in there 8 toughest games.

It's possible to look past inferior teams with a big game on deck. However why would Utah or LAL really weigh Boston more heavily then eachother??

:cheers:
 
tuck321 said:
Possible. But if that was the answer I was looking for there would have been no point to the question. I am not looking for philosophy, voodu, or karma as answers here. Why did they win the game?
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I ca't even answer a simple Yes or No question in 5 words so I wont even try this one.
 
Finding this very interesting. There is an obvious , simple answer to the question. No tricks. No gimmicks just the truth and no one is answering the question. You are deciding what happens today vs Utah without looking at the Lakers this year or in the last game. Not saying tonight is obvious because it is not but there should be a foundation of facts. Last time I ask the question. Why did the Lakers win against the Suns? Anyone?
 
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