gps_3 Week 8 SEC Discussion and Plays

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
2015: 68-49-3

Week 7: 15-7-2



Locked In:

aTm +5'
San Diego St +5
Arkansas -5'
Kansas St +4
Utah +3'
Alabama -15' & UN 56
Duke +115
Houston -21
Baylor/Iowa St OV 81'
Cincy -13
App St/Ga Southern UN 63
Colo/Ore St OV 59
GT/FSU UN 57'
LSU/WKU OV 65'
Wazzu/Zona OV 72
Mizzou/Vandy OV 34'
PITT -6'
UCLA TT O 37


Futures:

Conference title:

OU to win Big12: +400
Mich St to win B1G: +625
ASU to win Pac12: +700
UGA to win SEC: +450
LSU to win SEC: +900

Season win totals:

tOSU U 11' -120 (7-0)
AU U 8' +130 (4-2)
TCU U 10 +115 (7-0)
UGA O 9 -140 (5-2)
Ole Miss O 8' -120 (5-2)
Oklahoma O 8' -140 (5-1)
UCLA U 9 -125 (4-2)
Wisconsin O 9 -115 (5-2)
 
Last edited:
Week 8 SEC w/ my PR lines:

Mizzou @ Vandy (+4)

Tennessee @ Alabama (-19')

aTm @ Ole Miss (-1')

UK @ Miss St (-12)

AU @ Arkansas (-7)

WKU @ LSU (-26')


Should be around more this week to discuss. Mom and baby doing great, sleep...not so much.
 
Allen's injury must be serious based on the A&M/Ole Miss line. Tunsil is back, but there's no way I'm laying points with Ole Miss at this point.
 
I thought there was a chance the Vandy/Mizzou total could be lined in the 20's lol. Don't think you could pay me to watch that one.

Have you actually seen WKU play? I haven't seen them live but use quite a few of their guys in weekly fantasy leagues. I'm intrigued to watch that one as a fan, kinda has my attention as the funky game of the week. Fournette could go for a lot in that one... Still an LSU game with a total at 65.5, gotta warrant a look at the under, especially with Vandy holding them to 14 in the opener on less than 250 yards offense.

What are your thoughts on aTm/Miss?

Congrats on the kid!
 
Regarding the LSU under, also a good chance of rain down here this weekend from a tropical disturbance. With the busted coverage issues, possible weather, bye week and November on deck it wouldn't surprise me if they try to play keep away and get the game over with as quickly as possible. With the load Fournette has had the last two weeks, and what he is sure to have over the last four weeks, I think Guice gets more touches this week.

I'm a big fan of what Brohm does on offense. They throw it around but aren't married to the spread.
 
no one likes the toppers?

no 3 passin offense in the nation against LSU?

LSU better not fuck around in this game......I like what MOT said about the weather...
 
no one likes the toppers?

no 3 passin offense in the nation against LSU?

LSU better not fuck around in this game......I like what MOT said about the weather...

I don't know enough about their passing style. I feel like the biggest thing we see in these kinda games is just a massive advantage on both lines of scrimmage from the SEC teams when playing mid-majors like this. It takes a certain kind of QB to like Brees did against the Birds last Thurs and dink and dunk and just take what is given to you - don't know if this QB has the patience and poise to do what it would likely take. Prob will be some opportunities for big plays out of both offenses but I agree with you that weather could make WKU a bad play if it's wet and windy. 41-24.5 is forecasted score with spread and total. Any other year, I think going WKU TT under would be a cinch but I'm not totally sold on the LSU defense. Still seems like lotsa points. Again, I think MOT is dead on about seeing what weather is gonna do
 
BOL this week, kudos on great week 7 and congrats on the addition to your family.
 
no one likes the toppers?

no 3 passin offense in the nation against LSU?

LSU better not fuck around in this game......I like what MOT said about the weather...

Question for you and MOT:

You think Les throws more this weekend than he has to? You would think he is going to prob need to throw closer to the 28 times against Bama like he did against USce in couple weeks. What I guess I'm asking is if you think Les game plans it more where he can get some more live work before that game?
 
Not MOT or Twink, but Miles will have to play. WKU is capable of putting points up on anyone. Although Their passing number are gaudy, they run a balanced pro-style O. Broom doesn't Ave a Michael Bush, but the RB are surprisingly strong. A name to look out for is TE Higby. He is going to make a great NFL player. If I can find a reception prop on him, I will be all over it.
 
Not MOT or Twink, but Miles will have to play. WKU is capable of putting points up on anyone. Although Their passing number are gaudy, they run a balanced pro-style O. Broom doesn't Ave a Michael Bush, but the RB are surprisingly strong. A name to look out for is TE Higby. He is going to make a great NFL player. If I can find a reception prop on him, I will be all over it.

:shake:

Do you think they have improved a ton since the opener? The only defense I see they've played, Vandy, held them to 1.6 ypc and 209 passing which is less than half of their season avg. I totally acknowledge teams can grow a ton from the opener but having not seen them live and just looking over that schedule I have my doubts..
 
Have you seen an injury status on Higby? He left with a knee or ankle against North Texas the other night and didn't return. He wasn't putting any weight on it.

As for the LSU gameplan, because of WKU's ability to score I don't think they use this as a chance to work on anything. If they get into a situation where they are passing for the sake of passing, forcing things, etc (E Michigan game) which in turn leads to empty possessions or turnovers they could find themselves in a tough spot.

I think they use their normal mix to make sure they get control of the game and take what is available in the passing game. But they're trusting Harris more, and they have receivers who are tough to match up with, so it it isn't likely to be as run heavy as the first few weeks of the season.

As I mentioned earlier, weather could be a big factor as well.
 
Western Kentucky senior TE Tyler Higbee is considered doubtful to play in the school's game against LSU with a knee sprain.
Higbee suffered the injury last week against North Texas and an MRI confirmed the sprain. Surprisingly, this might have been positive news, since the injury looked even worse. Higbee was the nation's leading receiver at tight end prior to the game, catching 30 targets for 459 yards. He will return to the field this season. Oct 20 - 10:16 AM
Source: The Courier Journal
 
Did not see the injury report and agree with MOT. The defense is still porous, but they will score. LSU 2ND and 3rd string backs should get significant playing games time. Still think Harris will be given the opportunity to throw. More than likely in base formations, very vanilla route patterns (slants and hooks). He needs the reps in live action. They have bigger fish to fry. Don't be surprised if the Hilltoppers are within the number late.
 
They know what they got in Harris.....agree with MOT. Lotta running, I just bet it is Guice and Williams

Weather to watch tho

I wouldn't have LSU here, I know that
 
Adding:

aTm +5'
San Diego St +5
Arkansas -5'
Kansas St +4
Utah +3'
Alabama -15' & UN 56
Duke +115
Houston -21
Baylor/Iowa St OV 81'
Cincy -13
 
Thanks for the kind words fellas. #2 is definitely a game changer. Made another adjustment of my PRs, here are my updated #s for the SEC games this week:

Mizzou @ Vandy (+4)

Tennessee @ Alabama (-18)

aTm @ Ole Miss (-1')

UK @ Miss St (-12)

AU @ Arkansas (-6')

WKU @ LSU (-21)
 
Added:

App St/Ga Southern UN 63
Colo/Ore St OV 59
GT/FSU UN 57'
LSU/WKU OV 65'
Wazzu/Zona OV 72
Mizzou/Vandy OV 34'
PITT -6'
 
Mizzou/Vandy OV 34'

You just betting on principle here or is there something in particular you see that leads you to believe there will be points?
 
Mizzou/Vandy OV 34'

You just betting on principle here or is there something in particular you see that leads you to believe there will be points?

Principle. Though I fear it may need multiple return TDs to sniff this #
 
The heaviest rain chances in Baton Rouge appears to have shifted from a Saturday - Sunday timeframe to more of a Sunday - Monday. It looks like the games in Texas Saturday will be wet.

Mentioned in the thread last week LSU TE, and glorified 3rd tackle, Gordon was set to return against Florida. He was in for a few plays, caught a pass, and is now out for the season with an achilles.

Mills returned and played a couple series as the nickel, but wasn't 100%. It wouldn't surprise me if he is held out this week. He is a big key to the stretch run.
 
Starting RG and RT (11 combined starts this season) for Tennessee are out tomorrow. True freshmen Jack Jones and Chance Hall will be taking their place
 
Not sure he's practiced full contact this week, but as of now the coaches think he'll be available. Doesn't necessarily mean he'll play though

i figured it would be a game time decision, was just hoping you knew/heard something. Good luck this weekend.
 
LSU starting DT LaCouture is out today and maybe longer. This is one of two positions on defense they can't really afford a serious injury.

Starting corner Tre White also rumored to be out, no confirmation yet.
 
LSU starting DT LaCouture is out today and maybe longer. This is one of two positions on defense they can't really afford a serious injury.

Starting corner Tre White also rumored to be out, no confirmation yet.

think Tre is out for sure now
 
The heaviest rain chances in Baton Rouge appears to have shifted from a Saturday - Sunday timeframe to more of a Sunday - Monday. It looks like the games in Texas Saturday will be wet.

Mentioned in the thread last week LSU TE, and glorified 3rd tackle, Gordon was set to return against Florida. He was in for a few plays, caught a pass, and is now out for the season with an achilles.

Mills returned and played a couple series as the nickel, but wasn't 100%. It wouldn't surprise me if he is held out this week. He is a big key to the stretch run.

I wish they would slide Mills over to CB

They gonna play Donte some? They obv do not trust Paris.....these boys are gonna throw
 
Tennessee TT UN 17

Best available info I have is that Kelly will play for Alabama
 
Been raining in Baton Rouge since I arrived about 3 hours ago, and right now is the worst of the day.
 
[h=1]Of All The Aggie Problems Kevin Sumlin Must Fix, None Loom Larger Than Regaining His Team’s Trust[/h]October 25, 2015 11:36 AM By John P. Lopez Filed Under: aggies, Kevin Sumlin, kyle allen, kyler murray, quarterbacks
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<article class="article-bucket content"><!-- AddThis Button Begin --> By John P. Lopez
The Aggies are lost. They are a team with no clear direction or purpose.
This team might as well have driven to the airport in 70-different Uber cars for the flight to Oxford, rather than a team bus. That’s how many different directions they’re headed. And while these Aggies may be a lot of things, a team is not one of them.
That much became obvious in Saturday night’s 23-3 humiliation at Ole Miss. From the sad, blank stare on Kyle Allen’s face, to the confused, you’ve-got-to-be-kidding me look on Myles Garrett’s, it’s clear these Aggies are wallowing in confusion and turmoil.
Sure, there are Xs-and-Os problems that must be addressed — some more urgently than others.
Most notably:

  • This is the worst-coached wide receiving corps I have ever seen in Aggieland, especially when you consider the talent at the position. Raw talent, in fact, is the only way receivers get open anymore. Say what you will about offensive coordinator Jake Spavital, but receivers coach Aaron Moorehead probably should be on the street, resume in-hand, yesterday. There are only nine patterns in a passing-game route tree. Aggie receivers have been awful in every way. It has become almost laughable how poor Aggie receivers go into routes, make cuts, use their bodies and have sloppy, if any technique in patterns.
  • Spavital should not be let off the hook by any stretch. In fact, his ridiculous insistence calling plays that suit him, rather than those that best-fit his quarterbacks’ skills, has crippled the offense. The next time Spavital calls for Kyle Allen to sprint left and throw across his body to the flat, he should be fired, too. Allen truly is an extremely talented NFL-type quarterback, no matter recent evidence to the contrary. But there are certain throws he simply cannot make. Meanwhile, why Spavital seems to believe Kyler Murray is nothing more than a Wildcat quarterback is baffling. Murray has every throw in the bag, but every time he’s been on the field his skill set has been handcuffed.
But those issues pale in comparison to the albatross hanging over the entire program. There is a divide and absolute distrust in the locker-room.
At the core of it all, of course, is players taking up sides on who should play quarterback and the mixed-messages Kevin Sumlin apparently gave both his five-star quarterbacks. And, by extension, the entire team.
The hard lesson Sumlin must learn from this is that, if he makes a promise, he’d better keep it. To the letter. Or better yet, don’t make awkward promises at all.
The reality of the dysfunction that came to life at Vaught-Hemmingway Stadium on Saturday night was that it was not just a bad game or poor coaching. It was the live-and-in-color manifestation of deep-seeded issues in the locker-room — trust issues that started long before the season even began.
When Sumlin closed the deal to sign five-star quarterback Kyler Murray, who legitimately changed his mind and was close to signing with the Texas Longhorns late in the recruiting process, he made Murray and his father, Kevin Murray, some kind of promise about playing time. Who knows exactly what that promise was, but multiple sources say promises were made.
But then five-star sophomore Kyle Allen won the job in camp and through most early games gained the majority of playing time. Tensions grew between Kyler Murray and Allen. Tensions also grew between Kyler and Spavital. Sumlin’s promise of how much playing time Murray would receive was at best misinterpreted by the Murray family or at worst was a promise that was not kept.
Hence, when Murray was yanked in the Alabama game after throwing an interception, he went full F-bomb on Spavital and his fate for the Ole Miss game was sealed. But the drama did not stop with the Aggie coaching staff deciding early last week not to play Murray in Oxford.
Murray apparently did not take a single snap with the first-team offense in practice and was told he would travel and suit out for the Ole Miss game, even though he would not play. Players began taking sides in the locker-room more than ever, some believing Allen’s physical (shoulder) and mental struggles should have opened the door for Murray to get a legitimate chance to make the team his.
Some players also believed Murray should have been left at home, rather than face the embarrassment of national television cameras focused on him any time Allen made a mistake. Then, the worst-case scenario happened. Allen wasn’t just bad. He was awful. And there was Murray, shamed on the sideline, for all the college football world to see.
For his own sake, Allen should have been pulled from the game after the first series of the second-half. Allen’s spiraling descent into the mental mess he was in the fourth-quarter was awkward, sad and uncomfortable to watch. Nowhere more so than on the Aggie sideline, where the divide only grew bigger among players.
Even though Murray deserved some kind of discipline, some players believed keeping him on the bench was a bad move by the head coach — especially after Allen’s struggles. Sumlin’s foremost job, after all, is to win games. Others also believed that if Jake Hubenak was going to play, why wait so long to put him into the game?
Thus, today Sumlin has a lot on his plate. The problems are numerous. Tactical and staff changes must be made. But losing games is one thing, losing his team’s confidence is something altogether more complicated and potentially damaging.
Today, Sumlin must gather his team and find a way, some way, somehow, to fix more than Xs and Os. He must mend fences. And regain his team’s trust.

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