gps_3 Week 4 SEC picks and Discussion

G - I joined you on the Hogs but at +6. Really went back and forth on this about whether to go ML or not because getting 2/1 when I think 1/1 is fair is a good strategy but I think the points are more valuable in what should be a lower scoring game. There is a chance the aTm just terrorizes the Arky OL but I'm of the mind to give Arky the benefit of the doubt based on track record. The Arky DL is quietly a terrific unit themselves and I'm still not sold on Knight being the guy to run exactly the type of offense Noel seems to want to.
 
jesus how bad is Aubbie to be a dog at night to this Tiger team?

I will be going for the 1st time, pretty pumped

even the biggest LSU homers tell me: the loudest day game place in the country

AUbbie defense is good, better than what we seem to field right now

ALL depends on Etling OTR and if LSU can actually draw up a game plan

HUGE game for both coaches.....either could be gone after this one.....Gus' seat maybe a little hotter on this one tho
 
Clemson 19 Auburn 13
aTm 29 Auburn 16
Bama 29 Auburn 13
Georgia 20 Auburn 13
Ole Miss 27 Auburn 19
Miss St 17 Auburn 9
Georgia 34 Auburn 7
aTm 41 Auburn 38

10/25/14 last Auburn home win versus FBS opponent
 
twinkie13 said:
jesus how bad is Aubbie to be a dog at night to this Tiger team?

I will be going for the 1st time, pretty pumped

even the biggest LSU homers tell me: the loudest day game place in the country

AUbbie defense is good, better than what we seem to field right now

ALL depends on Etling OTR and if LSU can actually draw up a game plan

HUGE game for both coaches.....either could be gone after this one.....Gus' seat maybe a little hotter on this one tho
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Aubbie should start the freshman. Does he know anything? no , Can he throw? who knows. But when all else fails he will run. Aubbie just needs to run the ball. As bad as the qb play was vs. the Ags, the guys open in space dropped many passes.
 
pressitup said:
Aubbie should start the freshman. Does he know anything? no , Can he throw? who knows. But when all else fails he will run. Aubbie just needs to run the ball. As bad as the qb play was vs. the Ags, the guys open in space dropped many passes.
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I think LSU got a good audition last week from Fitzgerald if they go with Franklin. Fitzgerald is the QB because he runs so well and Miss St struggles to get rushing yardage from their RB but he isn't developed enough as a passer, I think he averaged about 3.5 per pass or something abysmal like that. The reality as I see it is that Auburn is just in absolutely brutal shape at QB. Do you continue to keep White out there who clearly can't do what Gus wants to as a running threat or do you put Franklin out there who at least in his few auditions looks to have the QB speed Gus wants but clearly is lacking in passing ability and quite frankly doesn't have it between the ears yet (See the 4th down play against the Ags when he ran out of bounds 5 yards short of the sticks). I prob just go with Franklin if I'm him and hope his athleticism is enough to give them a spark because their OL isn't good enough to maul defenders run blocking and White isn't good enough at anything to give you any type of edge. I can't see them troubling the LSU defense
 
CrimsonK said:
There have been 18 fumbles in UT games so far (That is absurd in itself) and the Vols have recovered 15 of them! The nat'l avg is 50%. Thos numbers are nearly four standard deviations above the mean outlier. The odds of them recovering 15/18 are 320.3/1. So, yes, regression is coming. This is what looks even worse for them, they could be 0-3 without that kind of luck. In looking at their adjusted scoring margins (how many a team "should" have won/lost by accordingly only to stats) they read +1.6 versus app st, 7.6 versus VT, 10.7 versus Ohio. If they don't elevate their level of play big time and the luck starts regressing, they are looking at 0-4 their next 4, which I personally would not favor them in any of those next 4.
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That is just an amazing stat and really speaks volumes about how fortunate they have been so far. I really like the matchup on the LOS for Florida in this game.
 
CrimsonK said:
I think LSU got a good audition last week from Fitzgerald if they go with Franklin. Fitzgerald is the QB because he runs so well and Miss St struggles to get rushing yardage from their RB but he isn't developed enough as a passer, I think he averaged about 3.5 per pass or something abysmal like that. The reality as I see it is that Auburn is just in absolutely brutal shape at QB. Do you continue to keep White out there who clearly can't do what Gus wants to as a running threat or do you put Franklin out there who at least in his few auditions looks to have the QB speed Gus wants but clearly is lacking in passing ability and quite frankly doesn't have it between the ears yet (See the 4th down play against the Ags when he ran out of bounds 5 yards short of the sticks). I prob just go with Franklin if I'm him and hope his athleticism is enough to give them a spark because their OL isn't good enough to maul defenders run blocking and White isn't good enough at anything to give you any type of edge. I can't see them troubling the LSU defense
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Auburn's problem is that there haven't been any good QBs dismissed from other SEC schools in the last few years
 
i just worry about Etling OTR at night at JH....a win here, and he could gain some confidence and the schedule could set up for a run IF IF IF they get it all together

a loss here is DEVASTATING.....I have to think LSU wants it more and Aubbie thinks the season is done maybe.....again, both coaches seat is burning, but Gus is REAL bad with a loss here. Aubbie D scares me a bit, but if you like LSU, maybe the ML is worth the price...
 
CrimsonK said:
I think LSU got a good audition last week from Fitzgerald if they go with Franklin. Fitzgerald is the QB because he runs so well and Miss St struggles to get rushing yardage from their RB but he isn't developed enough as a passer, I think he averaged about 3.5 per pass or something abysmal like that. The reality as I see it is that Auburn is just in absolutely brutal shape at QB. Do you continue to keep White out there who clearly can't do what Gus wants to as a running threat or do you put Franklin out there who at least in his few auditions looks to have the QB speed Gus wants but clearly is lacking in passing ability and quite frankly doesn't have it between the ears yet (See the 4th down play against the Ags when he ran out of bounds 5 yards short of the sticks). I prob just go with Franklin if I'm him and hope his athleticism is enough to give them a spark because their OL isn't good enough to maul defenders run blocking and White isn't good enough at anything to give you any type of edge. I can't see them troubling the LSU defense
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I hope you are right....don't want to be at the plains leaving with a bad result
 
twinkie13 said:
i just worry about Etling OTR at night at JH....a win here, and he could gain some confidence and the schedule could set up for a run IF IF IF they get it all together

a loss here is DEVASTATING.....I have to think LSU wants it more and Aubbie thinks the season is done maybe.....again, both coaches seat is burning, but Gus is REAL bad with a loss here. Aubbie D scares me a bit, but if you like LSU, maybe the ML is worth the price...
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For sure, the JH voodoo is still in full effect but thankfully you Cajuns bring your own juju to counter balance it so just gotta take the best team to win
 
think Aubbie is kicking themselves for not getting Lamar?

how fucking nice would he be in that offense

i just heard the story about the late/no offer
 
I KNOW this is just giving away $$ but I'm taking a stab on a State Theme style parlay this weekend.....
Vols , Vandy, MTSU, Memfis +703
 
I joined you on USF at 6. The more I've been looking at this and the situation the more I think this could very realistically be a game where FSU takes more lumps. There were red flags against OM but they were able to rectify them and get the win but seems to point to me based on the Ville game that some of those concerns are legit. Love the fact this is USF super bowl and I can't see an emotional bounceback from FSU and USF has grown in confidence from playing a good 1H against FSU last year when they were in their down stretch early in year before everything clicked and they became beasts. I think confidence is where it needs to be for USF while I just don't see that for FSU here. Maybe the OL is as good as they were forecasted to be and Cook isn't hurt and he gashes them like last year but I haven't seen anything from them through three games that leads me to believe they are going to bully a super physical Bulls team.

Also took Marshall at +27. Been as patient as I can be. Wanted to see if I could get this up to 28/28' but my gut says this one gets driven down. Win or lose, the over reactions from the Akron/Marshall game are integral to two of my bets and I think gave me about a TD worth of value on Akron/App St Under and Marshall +
 
Miss State at U Mass. A home game for mass but played at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, where the Patriots play home games. And a long way from u mass campus.
 
LSU RT Toby Weathersby did not make the trip to Auburn. Teuhema will start in his place but he has been dealing with an ankle since before camp started. Clapp and Malone on the left side both went down last week at different times. This will be the 4th starting combination in as many weeks.
 
Thanks MOT. I can't say I'm feeling super confident about your boys but like I said, less than 3, Auburn hasn't shown me they can do it yet.

I added Wash/Zona U 58 and Tenn TT U24

GL today fellas. Get your Bowling Green/Marshall ML parlays in - 10 bucks returns almost 2K!
 
Agree CK, I don't think Auburn will be able to sustain drives but the matchup against their front is worrisome given the situation. The OL bug isn't just limited to the last couple weeks, it goes all the way back to early in Fall camp and the Spring so lack of cohesion is a problem.

I may end up buying back one of the units I have on it.
 
ECU up to 14 now. I think I am as high or higher on VT than anyone I know but man o man, that has probably gone too far.

Interested to see what transpires in the Miss St/Umass game. Such an odd deal and over has taken a ton of money. I made the total 45 and thinking a 35-10 game felt right but there has been some real money on the over in that one as it opened right around 41 and is now up to 47'/48

Vols total now down to 41/41' which is closer to where I expected it to open not at 45.5.

I don't have the stones to take Kent St TT U3.5 but I prob should

Syracuse continuing to take big money all the way down from 7 I think at open, I got 6 -115 and now down to 2. Im getting the sense more and more they destroy Uconn here. I knew it was a bad line and I took advantage of that but the more I look at it the more it looks like they could whack em
 
Who was the 1st Aussie punter......I thought Wing might get some love on CGD.....seeing how he is in NFL
 
ram1502 said:
Sharp bets right there. Add in bowling green +17 and you had an amazing week. Should be reloading as i type...
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Ram, if you post one more trolling post in this thread I'm going to ban your ass for trolling one of the best thread this site sees week in and week out. You've been warned. Knock this trolling shit off immediately.
 
scarf31 said:
Ram, if you post one more trolling post in this thread I'm going to ban your ass for trolling one of the best thread this site sees week in and week out. You've been warned. Knock this trolling shit off immediately.
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So nobody has to be accountable? He can act as if he knows more than all of us...but doesnt have to answer for his 2-10 weeks? Give me a break...and btw you dont scare me, big bad trolling police. I am far from a troll...this guy is a self proclaimed genius and had gone about 20% this week. And after all, its mot even his thread, what are you patrolling anyway? Rough saturday night for ya huh? Home patrolling the message boards........
 
ram1502 said:
So nobody has to be accountable? He can act as if he knows more than all of us...but doesnt have to answer for his 2-10 weeks? Give me a break...
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If you don't like what someone has to say, there is an ignore feature in settings, put them on ignore. It's that simple. But coming into someone else's thread and being a wiseass when someone has a losing week doesn't fly here. End of discussion.
 
ram1502 said:
So nobody has to be accountable? He can act as if he knows more than all of us...but doesnt have to answer for his 2-10 weeks? Give me a break...and btw you dont scare me, big bad trolling police. I am far from a troll...this guy is a self proclaimed genius and had gone about 20% this week. And after all, its mot even his thread, what are you patrolling anyway? Rough saturday night for ya huh? Home patrolling the message boards........
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Okay, jackass. I tried to be fair, but you wanted to be an asswipe. Go find a new home to troll people. Your ass is gone. Your kind isn't wanted around here. Go across the street where you fit in.

Sorry about the clutter, guys. Carry on.
 
Ram, so somebody has an bad week. Who cares? I have had many a bad week. You just forget and move on to the next week. I for one appreciate everyone's thoughts here. Yes even yours. In fact, your comments would motivate to prove you wrong. I am not sure how CK feels. But hope he comes back even stronger next week. Maybe a 10-0 week who knows... but guess what..... you won't know now.
On to SEC week 5.......
 
Was away from the computer yesterday but parsing together some of the above posts it looks like it was a good decision. Brutal week for me. Some really bad bets and some really bad beats, that's the recipe for a 6-13 week. Only saw one game yesterday and that was the Hogs/Ags. I'm way behind but will be back at it this week. Not many initial targets for me on sides, there is really only one I'm looking for at open.

Press, let us know what that whiskey bottle tells you this week.
 
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