gps_3 Week 4 SEC picks and Discussion

[gps_3]

Week 3: 10-9-2

2016: 40-29-3


Week 4:

GT +9
ECU +11
Georgia Southern +7
Pitt +7
Ok St +9.5
Duke +21
Mich St -5.5
Arkansas +6.5
Ole Miss -7.5
Florida +7
S. Florida +6.5
UF/UT UN 43.5
AU/LSU UN 45.5

Season bets:

JT Barrett to win Heisman +1500
Miss St ov 6' wins (1-2)
USC ov 7' wins (1-2)
Utah ov 7' wins (3-0)
Kentucky un 4' wins (1-2)
Arkansas ov 7' wins (3-0)

 

[gps_3]

Week 4 SEC PR lines:

Vanderbilt +8 @ WKU
aTm -1 vs Arkansas (neutral site- JerryWorld)
Tennessee -5 vs Florida
Ole Miss -8 vs UGA
Alabama -35.5 vs Kent St
LSU -1 @ Auburn
Mississippi St -24.5 @ UMASS
South Carolina -1.5 @ UK

Mississippi St is playing AT UMASS? WTF? And not sure how I ended up with SCAR as a road favorite for a conference game. Looking forward to everyone's thoughts on last week's games and the ones coming up. As always, comments encouraged and good luck to everyone

 

[CrimsonK]

Here is what I've played thus far:

GT +10.5 (big)
Bowling Green +17 (big)
Georgia Southern +8 (big)
LSU -2.5
Pitt +7.5
Florida +10 (GOY line)

I'll post my lines and totals for the SEC slate tomorrow.

 

[M.O.T]

My PR lines:
Vanderbilt +8
A&M -1
Tennessee -12
Ole Miss -4.5
Alabama -40.5
LSU -6
State -22
Kentucky -4.5

Touched on the LSU - State game in a couple other threads, but LSU played well until OL injuries, drive killing penalties, poor field position, and Fournette fumbles eventually caught up to them late in the game. They controlled the game for 54 minutes and were on the verge of going up 24. Then following Fournette's second fumble of the 2nd half and about three minutes of game play it was 23-20 and they needed a defensive stop at the end.

About 7 things had to go wrong and line up perfectly for State to get back into it, but with a Miles coached team it wasn't surprising.

 

[sfbuckeye]

Mind sharing your thoughts on BG, Crimson? I'm with you on GT, Ga.So., & Pitt -- my favorite plays of the week.

Here is what I've played thus far:

GT +10.5 (big)
Bowling Green +17 (big)
Georgia Southern +8 (big)
LSU -2.5
Pitt +7.5
Florida +10 (GOY line)

I'll post my lines and totals for the SEC slate tomorrow.

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

Color me surprised Kentucky opened as a favorite, but there's no way I'd even think about touching the side there.

Per Kyle Tucker, Kentucky ranks 127th out of 128 FBS teams in third-down defense, 122nd in total and scoring defense, 116th in run defense, 112th in pass defense and 92nd in sacks. My buddy and I have been blindly playing the opposition's team total overs after witnessing the second half debacle vs So Miss; Louisville may hang 90 on us down the road.

The only glimmer of hope I have as a Kentucky fan is seeing that South Carolina averages around 2.5 yards per carry, good for 121st in the country. And they'll still probably gash our d-line.

Even if Barker is deemed healthy, have to think Stephen Johnson will be the starter for the Cats Saturday after leading the unit to 692 yards, the most ever in Commonwealth Stadium. Johnson doesn't have the greatest arm and he's got one of those wiry, not the strongest-of-looking frames, but he's pretty damn elusive and athletic, and I was impressed with not only his reads but how he let the game come to him and how he handled pressure in the pocket in keeping plays alive on his feet. Eventually the passing game opened up, tight ends got involved and the read option stuff worked really well which opened up things for Boom and Benny. Watch out for Benny Snell down the road--kid looks like he could play on Sundays to me. It was nice to see guys like Johnson and Snell take advantage of their opportunities with Barker and JoJo Kemp banged up.

 

[CrimsonK]

Mind sharing your thoughts on BG, Crimson? I'm with you on GT, Ga.So., & Pitt -- my favorite plays of the week.

The pendulum has just swung too far on BG now. I had a strong lean to MTSU last week but passed so it's not that I'm super high on BG it's just this has gone too far. I would propose that in the preseason this line is close to a pick/Memphis laying a score. I didn't see any of the game last week but it looks like BGSU played just fine. MTSU outgained BG 436-433 and BGSU had the 24-20 FD edge. BG -2 in TO. BGSU ran a ton more plays so the ypp is big in favor of MTSU but looks like a 20 point win was a bit generous. We can't really get too excited about Memphis thus far - we know they take a step down in coaching and QB play - which are two huge reasons they were who they were last year. Cupcake to start the year, bye week and then Kansas cupcake last week in a game which actually looks closer than score (again, I saw none of game) 19-14 FD edge to Memphis and they also had a 394-314 yardage edge and similar ypp. KU -6 in TO and there is your 30 point gap explained. So in short you have a team in BG that got crushed by tOSU, no prob from me, egg against North Dakota and the aforementioned loss last week and this line has gotten out of hand fast. This is lined like BGSU is in ten worst FBS teams and I wouldn't agree with that - they were -20 LW against KU. I will prob sprinkle some ML here with an offense like BG has and being that they have balance and quick strike potential even if they are down 4 scores in the 2H I'm still in it ATS at the very least. This really isn't a ton about matchups for me it's just to me a glaring over reaction with a team in Memphis is a very unknown quantity and I think could end up taking a sizable step back from LY come year's end. My gut says we look back at this line in November and it seems silly.

 

[CrimsonK]

Vanderbilt @ WKU -7.5/48
aTm vs Arkansas (N) PICK/47.5
Florida @ Tennessee PICK/38 (Assuming Appleby at QB - If Dobbs gets hurt at practice I would then make UT the favorite)
UGA @ Ole Miss -5.5/61
Kent St @ Alabama -39/45.5 (Hurts?)
LSU @ Auburn +4.5/46
Mississippi St @ UMASS +25/45 (Both teams with QB uncertainties for differing reasons)
South Carolina @ UK -1/58 (This is a nightmare)

 

[sfbuckeye]

I watched most of the MTSU-BG game. It was in a monsoon. Can't recall last time I saw a game played in that much rain/water. Weather seemed to affect BG a little more... 4 TOs; bad penalties; assume it took them a bit outside their preferred gameplan. I still don't have a grasp on them, but your read on the market makes good sense--thanks for sharing.

The pendulum has just swung too far on BG now. I had a strong lean to MTSU last week but passed so it's not that I'm super high on BG it's just this has gone too far. I would propose that in the preseason this line is close to a pick/Memphis laying a score. I didn't see any of the game last week but it looks like BGSU played just fine. MTSU outgained BG 436-433 and BGSU had the 24-20 FD edge. BG -2 in TO. BGSU ran a ton more plays so the ypp is big in favor of MTSU but looks like a 20 point win was a bit generous. We can't really get too excited about Memphis thus far - we know they take a step down in coaching and QB play - which are two huge reasons they were who they were last year. Cupcake to start the year, bye week and then Kansas cupcake last week in a game which actually looks closer than score (again, I saw none of game) 19-14 FD edge to Memphis and they also had a 394-314 yardage edge and similar ypp. KU -6 in TO and there is your 30 point gap explained. So in short you have a team in BG that got crushed by tOSU, no prob from me, egg against North Dakota and the aforementioned loss last week and this line has gotten out of hand fast. This is lined like BGSU is in ten worst FBS teams and I wouldn't agree with that - they were -20 LW against KU. I will prob sprinkle some ML here with an offense like BG has and being that they have balance and quick strike potential even if they are down 4 scores in the 2H I'm still in it ATS at the very least. This really isn't a ton about matchups for me it's just to me a glaring over reaction with a team in Memphis is a very unknown quantity and I think could end up taking a sizable step back from LY come year's end. My gut says we look back at this line in November and it seems silly.

 

[M.W.]

I'll be on Kent and Arkansas. Really want to play UF as well, but not sure I can back Appleby. Some of you seem okay with him, however. What are your thoughts in that regard?

 

[sleepy]

Here is what I've played thus far:

GT +10.5 (big)
Bowling Green +17 (big)
Georgia Southern +8 (big)
LSU -2.5
Pitt +7.5
Florida +10 (GOY line)

I'll post my lines and totals for the SEC slate tomorrow.

I agree with the Georgia Tech pick. They play really well at home. I expect that game to be a war.

 

[Br@ssknux]

I'll be on Kent and Arkansas. Really want to play UF as well, but not sure I can back Appleby. Some of you seem okay with him, however. What are your thoughts in that regard?

I watched quite a bit of Appleby, and I think he was a victim of the culture at Purdue more than anything else. It's been one of those programs where Murphy's Law seems to rule. I'm not at my computer so I don't have any backup for this but but he always seemed pretty competent to me. Decent enough arm and pretty good running ability/athleticism. He had a rep for making big mistakes, but I remember a couple egregious route mistakes by receivers and just a general mastery of the fuck up by all the players on the field for Purdue at any one time. Surrounded by a better team I think he'll be ok. He's no world beater, but he isn't terrible. If Florida's success was completely reliant on the QB making plays I'd worry, but he should be ok. It's not like he's Mohrninweig's kid or something.

 

[Br@ssknux]

One other thought: He's better than Etling IMO.

 

[CrimsonK]

Color me surprised Kentucky opened as a favorite, but there's no way I'd even think about touching the side there.

Per Kyle Tucker, Kentucky ranks 127th out of 128 FBS teams in third-down defense, 122nd in total and scoring defense, 116th in run defense, 112th in pass defense and 92nd in sacks. My buddy and I have been blindly playing the opposition's team total overs after witnessing the second half debacle vs So Miss; Louisville may hang 90 on us down the road.

The only glimmer of hope I have as a Kentucky fan is seeing that South Carolina averages around 2.5 yards per carry, good for 121st in the country. And they'll still probably gash our d-line.

Even if Barker is deemed healthy, have to think Stephen Johnson will be the starter for the Cats Saturday after leading the unit to 692 yards, the most ever in Commonwealth Stadium. Johnson doesn't have the greatest arm and he's got one of those wiry, not the strongest-of-looking frames, but he's pretty damn elusive and athletic, and I was impressed with not only his reads but how he let the game come to him and how he handled pressure in the pocket in keeping plays alive on his feet. Eventually the passing game opened up, tight ends got involved and the read option stuff worked really well which opened up things for Boom and Benny. Watch out for Benny Snell down the road--kid looks like he could play on Sundays to me. It was nice to see guys like Johnson and Snell take advantage of their opportunities with Barker and JoJo Kemp banged up.

Thanks for the synopsis. I wouldn't be able to choke down watching a replay of the game so this helps me a lot - appreciate it

 

[gps_3]

I'll be on Kent and Arkansas. Really want to play UF as well, but not sure I can back Appleby. Some of you seem okay with him, however. What are your thoughts in that regard?

I read a little about it last night, and first off, the QB competition was pretty much neck and neck in the fall, but Del Rio had a better understanding of the offense which is natural since he's been there longer. Appleby apparently has more natural ability than LDR and the article said he played well enough when he took over Saturday night, though it's not like he had to do much and only attempted 4 passes and ran it once. It did mention that Appleby is a threat to run on zone read and option type plays so the offense might have the capability of being more dynamic. The injury to LDR sucks though, because I had been planning a big play on UF since week 1, now will have to tread carefully. But that Florida defense will be a massive step up from anything UT has seen thus far

 

[CrimsonK]

I agree with the Georgia Tech pick. They play really well at home. I expect that game to be a war.

Glad you agree. Clemson hasn't won in Atlanta since 2003. This has traditionally been a pretty competitively played series on the field but things have seen somewhat out of balance with Clemson having some of their larger victories the past few years. In my years as a bettor, I've made more money betting on the Admiral Paul Johnson as an underdog probably than any other team. Perhaps Clemson will be who everyone thought they should be after getting it right against a patsy last week but the team I saw at Auburn and against Troy shouldn't be favored in this game. I've never seen or heard the Admiral this excited about his offense since he has been at GT. They just absolutely annihilated a really good Vandy defense. Throw in the fact it's a thursday night dog at home and it's my biggest bet this season.

 

[CrimsonK]

I know it's Umass, Kentucky and North Texas.... BUT... UF has given up 262 passing yards and 127 rushing yards.... FOR. THE. YEAR. Think about that and then think about what this DL will do to the Vols OL and then think about Joshua Dobbs trying to move the ball in the air against this secondary. It's like a visit to the haunted house in September

 

[gps_3]

Vanderbilt @ WKU -7.5/48
aTm vs Arkansas (N) PICK/47.5
Florida @ Tennessee PICK/38 (Assuming Appleby at QB - If Dobbs gets hurt at practice I would then make UT the favorite)
UGA @ Ole Miss -5.5/61
Kent St @ Alabama -39/45.5 (Hurts?)
LSU @ Auburn +4.5/46
Mississippi St @ UMASS +25/45 (Both teams with QB uncertainties for differing reasons)
South Carolina @ UK -1/58 (This is a nightmare)

You think the total in Knoxville will be 38? Depending on the # I think the under can be a winning bet, hoping for 42.5 or more

 

[CrimsonK]

That projection is what I think it should be not what I think it will be. I think it will open prob right around that 42 - prob would have gotten 45 if LDR wasn't out.

 

[gps_3]

That projection is what I think it should be not what I think it will be. I think it will open prob right around that 42 - prob would have gotten 45 if LDR wasn't out.

This game has 20-17 written all over it. How in the world is Tennessee going to move the ball? Dobbs will have to have the best passing game of his life IMO to cover the current # of 7.5. I read that Callaway was out for North Texas game, anyone know if he'll be back for this one?

Just read that Tenny had 5 fumbles against Ohio and recovered them all. That's 10 fumbles in 2 games that they have recovered and lost none. There has to be some regression to the mean there one would think

 

[gps_3]

Info on Appleby:

During Florida’s media day in August, Gators coach Jim McElwain talked about how much he liked his quarterback room. He mentioned how the guys got along, pushed each other and put in extra work this summer. This Saturday in Knoxville, we will find out how much he really likes that room.

Purdue graduate transfer Austin Appleby is going to get his first start as a Gator in the wake of Luke Del Rio’s knee injury. Appleby is confident, well-spoken and has believed all along his mission was to lead the team.

Austin Appleby started for parts of two seasons at Purdue, and he definitely is a better runner than Luke Del Rio. JESSE JOHNSON/USA TODAY SPORTS

I would compare Appleby’s skill set to former Gators quarterback Jeff Driskel. (Hey, don’t panic: I said “skill set.”) Appleby is a big, strong-armed quarterback who moves well. That ability to run is the one attribute he brings to the table that Del Rio does not possess. Do not expect offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier to install the zone read this week, but bootlegs and quarterback draws could be on the books.
One thing that was noticed with Appleby in scrimmage situations was his ability to scramble and pick up a first down. The coaches know his strengths and weaknesses, and will game-plan accordingly.
Appleby has a stronger arm than Del Rio and will take downfield shots. The question is how much of the offense he truly can handle. He has been getting back-up reps since the middle of fall camp, and most of his game-planning has been done via the mental route.
Even last week, when the Gators likely worked on some Tennessee scripts , he would not have gotten those reps. I do think the offense will look the same as it did with Del Rio, but I expect them to move the pocket some with Appleby.
The one mark against Appleby is turnovers. It was an issue at Purdue, as he threw 19 interceptions in 17 games (he also threw 19 touchdown passes). That seems to have been one of the clear markers in Del Rio’s favor when it came to winning the job.
Appleby admitted at UF’s media day that he took some chances at Purdue because of the game situations. The Boilermakers weren’t good and frequently were in catch-up mode against better competition. But last season against a top-10 Iowa team, he was 23-of-40 for 259 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions in a 40-20 loss.

In 2014, Appleby made his first college start (he replaced Danny Etling, now at LSU, as the starter) against Illinois and went 15-of-20 for 202 yards and one touchdown (an 80-yarder). He also ran for 76 yards and scored twice. If he can produce anything close to those numbers this week in Knoxville, the Gators may run their winning streak against Tennessee to 12.

 

[gps_3]

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The third Saturday of the season in the SEC was expected to be a big one, and it included one of the most eagerly anticipated league games of the season. It lived up to the hype.
Here’s a look at all the SEC action from Saturday.

[h=3]ALABAMA 48, OLE MISS 43[/h]

Chad Kelly threw for 421 yards and three TDs, but he also threw a pick-six and had a fumble returned for a TD. MATT BUSH/USA TODAY SPORTS

The host Rebels built a 24-3 lead and it looked as if a third consecutive win over the Tide was going to happen. The Tide then scored three TDs in a span of 5:23 covering the second and third quarters to tie it, and gradually pulled away to move to 3-0. Alabama hadn’t run the ball all that well in its first two games, but the Tide rushed for 334 yards and three TDs and finished with 492 total yards against Ole Miss. QB Jalen Hurts ran for 146 yards on 18 carries, and TB Damien Harris ran for 144 and a TD on 16 carries. Alabama also scored two defensive TDs and on a punt return by Eddie Jackson. Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly threw for 421 yards and three TDs, but he had a pick returned for a TD and suffered a fumble that was returned for another score. TE Evan Engram had a big day, with nine receptions for 138 yards and a touchdown. Alabama led 48-30 before Ole Miss scored twice in the final five minutes to make it interesting.
[h=3]FLORIDA 32, NORTH TEXAS 0[/h]The Gators held the Mean Green to just 56 total yards, the lowest total by an opponent in Florida history. But UF starting QB Luke Del Rio left the game late in the third quarter with a knee injury, and coach Jim McElwain said the Gators probably will be without Del RIo next week at Tennessee. Florida finished with 471 yards of offense, including 255 on the ground. But the Gators missed on two short fourth-down conversions and also were just 5-of-12 on third down. Florida had four rushing TDs, and each of the four tailbacks who played rushed for a TD and at least 46 yards. Once sack yardage was included, North Texas finished with minus-13 yards on the ground. UNT’s Mason Fine was sacked five times and the Mean Green was 2-of-13 on third down.
[h=3]GEORGIA 28, MISSOURI 27[/h]True freshman Jacob Eason tossed a 20-yard TD pass on fourth-and-10 with 1:29 left to lift the visiting Bulldogs (3-0) to the victory over the Tigers (1-2). Eason threw for 308 yards and three TDs to outduel Mizzou sophomore Drew Lock, who threw for 376 yards and three TDs but also three interceptions. Neither team did much on the ground; Georgia ran for 101 and Missouri 95. Junior Isaiah McKenzie, who came in with two career TD receptions, had 10 catches for 122 yards and two TDs, including the game-winner. That scoring toss was Georgia’s only second-half TD.
[h=3]TEXAS A&M 29, AUBURN 16[/h]

Trevor Knight Trevor Knight threw for 247 yards and a TD as the Aggies won at Auburn. SHANNA LOCKWOOD/USA TODAY SPORTS

Daniel LaCamera kicked five field goals and Trevor Knight threw for 247 yards and a TD as the Aggies (3-0) won at Auburn (1-2) in the SEC opener for both. The Tigers took a 7-0 lead on their second drive of the game, but didn’t get into the end zone again until there was 3:07 left in the game. A&M’s defense gave up 236 rushing yards, but Auburn didn’t hit many big plays and went 6-of-17 on third down. A&M ran for 231 yards and cemented the win when true freshman Trayveon Williams ran 89 yards for a TD with 7:16 left in the game. The score gave the Aggies a 29-10 lead. The teams have met five times since A&M joined the SEC, and the road team has won all five meetings.
[h=3]LSU 23, MISSISSIPPI STATE 20[/h]The host Tigers (2-1) built a 23-3 halftime lead, then had to hold on for the win over the Bulldogs (1-2). Mississippi State scored two TDs in less than a minute late in the game to make things interesting; both came with Damian Williams at quarterback. Leonard Fournette ran for 147 yards and two TDs, and Danny Etling – who made his first LSU start – threw for 215 yards and a TD. LSU outgained Mississippi State 392-270, and the Bulldogs – who ran for just 56 yards – were an unsightly 1-of-14 on third down.
[h=3]TENNESSEE 28, OHIO 19[/h]One week before Florida comes to town, the Vols (3-0) slogged their way to the win over the visiting Bobcats (1-2). Tennessee led just 21-19 entering the fourth quarter. Afterward, Vols coach Butch Jones said star CB Cam Sutton would be out for an extended period of time with an ankle injury suffered on Ohio’s first drive of the game. The Vols’ offensive line had trouble controlling the line of scrimmage for most of the first three quarters, but Tennessee finished with 202 rushing yards. Josh Dobbs threw for 201 yards and two TDs – both to Josh Malone – but he missed a number of wide-open receivers and despite the good stats was uneven as a passer. The Vols held Ohio to just 87 rushing yards. The Vols fumbled five times, but didn’t lose any of them. Tennessee is 3-0 for the first time since 2004.
[h=3]ARKANSAS 42, TEXAS STATE 3[/h]

Rawleigh Williams III rumbled for 121 yards and two TDs in Arkansas’ easy win. DENNY MEDLEY/USA TODAY SPORTS

Sophomore TB Rawleigh Williams III ran for 121 yards and two TDs on 19 carries as the host Razorbacks (3-0) hammered the Bobcats (1-2). Arkansas’ defense was stifling, holding Texas State to just 105 yards of offense and eight first downs. The Hogs finished with 467 yards of offense, including 226 yards and three TDs on the ground. Arkansas led 35-0 at halftime and didn’t really break a sweat in the second half.
[h=3]SOUTH CAROLINA 20, EAST CAROLINA 15[/h]The host Gamecocks surrendered 519 yards and were outgained by more than 200 yards, but they also forced four turnovers and hung tough in the red zone defensively to down the Pirates. ECU ran 91 plays (South Carolina ran 53), had a 17-minute time-of-possession advantage and had 34 first downs (the Gamecocks had 13). ECU WR Zay Jones (known as Isaiah Jones until this season) caught 22 passes for 190 yards; that is one reception shy of an NFL record. South Carolina scored on its first offensive play after a long kickoff return and a penalty, then added another TD fewer than five minutes later to take a 14-0 lead.
[h=3]GEORGIA TECH 38, VANDERBILT 7[/h]The host Yellow Jackets (3-0) ran all over the visiting Commodores (1-2) en route to the easy win. Tech’s triple-option offense rang up 289 rushing yards to help the Yellow Jackets control the game after Vandy tied it at 7-7 early in the first quarter. Georgia Tech completed eight passes but for 222 yards (27.8 yards per completion) and two touchdowns. The Yellow Jackets scored on 77- and 81-yard completions. Tech was 8-of-15 on third downs. Vandy managed just 85 rushing yards, with Ralph Webb held to 69 yards on 18 carries.
[h=3]KENTUCKY 62, NEW MEXICO STATE 42[/h]The host Wildcats (1-2) rolled up 691 yards of offense to pull away from the Aggies (1-2). The game was tied at 35 at halftime before UK took control in the second half. Kentucky rushed for 380 yards and five TDs. Junior TB Stanley “Boom” Williams had a career-high 181 yards and a TD on 18 carries, and true freshman third-team TB Benjamin Snell Jr. had 136 yards and four TDs on 17 carries. Wildcats starting QB Drew Barker was injured in the first half and didn’t return; backup Stephen Johnson threw three TD passes to TE C.J. Conrad. UK surrendered 500 yards of offense, including 223 on the ground.

 

[gps_3]

Five things we learned on another incredibly wild Saturday in the SEC:

[h=3]1. NOT ONLY IS ALABAMA THE MOST TALENTED TEAM IN THE SEC, IT ALSO IS THE TOUGHEST AND MOST RESILIENT[/h]Bill Curry, who was Alabama’s coach from 1987-89, told me a story several years ago.
“One of the great things about coaching kids at Alabama is that when things get tough, they absolutely, positively expect to win,” he said. “The opponent also expects Alabama to win. And the Alabama players know that the opponent knows that Alabama is going to win. Usually, the tougher the game, the better Alabama kids play. It is built into their DNA.”
Now, does this mindset work every single time for Alabama? It does not. But since Nick Saban arrived in 2007, it has worked most of the time.
The Crimson Tide fell behind 24-3 at Ole Miss on Saturday, then dominated to take a 48-30 lead on the way to a 48-43 victory. Alabama had two defensive touchdowns because turnovers by Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly. The Tide also had a punt-return TD.
“It was a really difficult game for an old coach to have to suffer through,” Saban told reporters after the game. “But we made it and I’m really proud of our players.”
Alabama plays host to Kent State, Saban’s alma mater, on Saturday. Then, after an October 1 home game with Kentucky, the Tide goes to Arkansas and Tennessee, then faces Texas A&M at home.
[h=3]2. THE SEC EAST IS WIDE, WIDE OPEN[/h]Tennessee, Florida and Georgia won Saturday but all showed major flaws.
* Tennessee’s offensive line continued to struggle against Ohio, but Josh Dobbs made enough plays for the Vols to get a 28-19 win. Now Tennessee must play Florida without their star cornerback Cam Sutton, who will be out for a significant amount of time with an ankle injury. Tennessee had nine penalties against Ohio and had five fumbles (recovering them all).
* Florida lost quarterback Luke Del Rio after an ugly low hit by a North Texas defender. He won’t play against Tennessee, but even before Del Rio’s injury, the Gators looked sloppy on offense. The defense is damn good, though.
* Georgia survived thanks to a great last-minute drive that ended on a brilliant 20-yard touchdown pass from Jacob Eason to Isaiah McKenzie on fourth down with 1:29 left to win 28-27 at Missouri. Georgia had to throw the ball 55 times and did not score a point off five forced turnovers. The Bulldogs could not block Missouri’s defensive line, but a lot of people are going to have that problem. Georgia’s offensive line is average at best and nobody other than McKenzie can make a play at wide receiver.
So get ready for the round-robin of these three teams: Florida goes to Tennessee this week and plays Georgia in Jacksonville on October 29. Tennessee goes to Georgia on October 1.
[h=3]3. DON’T SLEEP ON THE AGGIES[/h]Texas A&M has had two major problems since Johnny Manziel left town after the 2013 season: The Aggies could not run the ball when they needed to and could not get the defensive stops when the game was on the line.
Well, Texas A&M did both in Saturday night’s 29-16 win at Auburn.
The Aggies have stabilized their offense with Oklahoma graduate transfer Trevor Knight at quarterback. They ran for 231 yards, including a back-breaking 89-yard touchdown run by Trayveon Williams with 6:52 left for a 29-10 lead.
Knight was 20-of-40 for 247 yards and a TD. He is not going to put up spectacular numbers, but he is going to get the ball into the hands of the Texas A&M playmakers – and there are a lot of them.
I don’t think Texas A&M can win the SEC West, but I do think the Aggies could have a say in who does. We’ll learn a lot more about them Saturday when A&M faces Arkansas in Arlington, Texas. They go to Alabama on October 22, play at Mississippi State on November 5, then are home against Ole Miss on November 12 and against LSU on November 24.
[h=3]4. GUS MALZAHN IS SEARCHING FOR ANSWERS ON OFFENSE – AND I’M AFRAID HE’S NOT GOING TO FIND ANY[/h]Auburn had 236 yards rushing, 399 total yards and seven more first downs (26-19) than Texas A&M. But when all was said and done, the Tigers had one touchdown on their second possession and a touchdown on their next-to-last possession. That’s it.
Auburn’s defense forced Texas A&M to kick five field goals. That should be enough stops to give your team a chance to win. But A&M won 29-16 in a game that wasn’t really that close.
“I thought our defense played very good, gave the offense a lot of opportunities, and the offense just couldn’t seize the moment,” Malzahn told reporters after the game.
Malzahn said that he will take another look at the quarterback situation with LSU visiting Auburn on Saturday. Sean White started for the third consecutive game, but when things got stagnant, Auburn went with JC transfer John Franklin III. Franklin gave Auburn a little spark, but he clearly is limited in what he can do.
The harsh truth is that none of Auburn’s quarterbacks can do everything that is required to run Malzahn’s offense effectively. It’s a quarterback-centric offense but with average quarterbacks. Good defenses are going to load the box and bet that the quarterback can’t beat them.
[h=3]5. LSU HAD BETTER LEARN HOW TO CLOSE OUT GAMES[/h]You want to believe that LSU is getting better and will start playing like the team that was in everybody’s preseason top 10.
You want to believe that the Tigers have found something in quarterback Danny Etling, who played well in his first start at quarterback for LSU. Against Mississippi State, he was 19-of-30 for 215 yards and a TD.
You want to believe that coach Les Miles and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron have gotten the message when they are willing to go to the back of the playbook and try some unorthodox things – at least unorthodox for them.
You want to believe right up until the time LSU jumps out to a 23-3 lead, then has to hold on for dear life to win 23-20.
Several LSU players were quoted in the local media saying that LSU “let off the gas” after getting the lead. LSU isn’t good enough to let the gas off against anybody. And give Mississippi State credit for rallying behind backup quarterback Damian Williams.

LSU goes to Auburn, is at home against Missouri, and then goes to Florida in its next three games. If the Tigers don’t learn to keep their foot on the gas, they are going to lose at least one of those games.

 

[captjohn67]

Hard not to think bama sleep walks and doesn't cover the 43 this Saturday. Good luck GPS

 

[gps_3]

Hard not to think bama sleep walks and doesn't cover the 43 this Saturday. Good luck GPS

I think the only way it's covered is if Alabama wins 45-0. I see this playing out one of two ways:

1) the first team O and D play well, Alabama is up something like 35-0 at half time and the walk-ons are in by the end of the 3rd quarter at which point Kent St may score and backdoor cover if applicable

OR

2) the first team O and D sleepwalk the start of the game and it's 24-7 at half and nearly impossible to cover unless the back ups hit on some explosive plays

Hurts got dinged up a bit against Ole Miss so I would expect to see Barnett early and often against Kent St. Kent St is also Saban's alma mater, so probably not looking to run it up any, not that he really tries to anyway. Hos MO is to keep the clock running once we're up comfortably and have run all the plays he wants us to work on

 

[twinkie13]

was gonna say Kent St or nada

 

[ksimpsc]

Color me surprised Kentucky opened as a favorite, but there's no way I'd even think about touching the side there.

Per Kyle Tucker, Kentucky ranks 127th out of 128 FBS teams in third-down defense, 122nd in total and scoring defense, 116th in run defense, 112th in pass defense and 92nd in sacks. My buddy and I have been blindly playing the opposition's team total overs after witnessing the second half debacle vs So Miss; Louisville may hang 90 on us down the road.

The only glimmer of hope I have as a Kentucky fan is seeing that South Carolina averages around 2.5 yards per carry, good for 121st in the country. And they'll still probably gash our d-line.

Even if Barker is deemed healthy, have to think Stephen Johnson will be the starter for the Cats Saturday after leading the unit to 692 yards, the most ever in Commonwealth Stadium. Johnson doesn't have the greatest arm and he's got one of those wiry, not the strongest-of-looking frames, but he's pretty damn elusive and athletic, and I was impressed with not only his reads but how he let the game come to him and how he handled pressure in the pocket in keeping plays alive on his feet. Eventually the passing game opened up, tight ends got involved and the read option stuff worked really well which opened up things for Boom and Benny. Watch out for Benny Snell down the road--kid looks like he could play on Sundays to me. It was nice to see guys like Johnson and Snell take advantage of their opportunities with Barker and JoJo Kemp banged up.

Looks like we are rooting for the shitty teams in the SEC this year G4M. BOL this week. Not sure what to think of that game. Kentucky has looked awful so far this year and we do not look good either. Our offense is borderline inept with freshman QB even though I think he has a decent upside (though I am questioning why they aren't continuing with Orth at QB even though he isnt great because Bentley is the saving grace next year supposedly.)

We were outgained 523 to 312 against ECU and 35 to 13 first downs in the game in favor of ECU. Honestly we should have lost that game 9/10 times with ECU having 4 turnovers 3 of which were in the red zone. I want to bet against the Cocks so bad but maybe I will just sit back and see what happens.

 

[gps_3]

Here is what I've played thus far:

GT +10.5 (big)
Bowling Green +17 (big)
Georgia Southern +8 (big)
LSU -2.5
Pitt +7.5
Florida +10 (GOY line)

I'll post my lines and totals for the SEC slate tomorrow.

We must have similar #s on several of those.

Adding:

GT +9
ECU +11
Georgia Southern +7
Pitt +7
Ok St +9.5
Duke +21
Mich St -5.5
Arkansas +6.5
Ole Miss -7.5
Florida +7
S. Florida +6.5

It's BS that I put some of these in and the website didn't load them right, then when I went back and did it again 2 minutes later, several of them moved a half point against me and off of some key #s. Not disciplined enough to not bet them at worse #s, though most of the time it doesn't matter for me. I don't have access to the openers, so I just try to beat line moves

 

[CrimsonK]

Weird as it is, I even lean to all of yours (prob not OM at that price but I saw it opened -2 on BOL and was hoping the rest would copy that, I'm hoping to get a mid 50's total and go OV) but didn't play. Same with ECU, I almost bet it at 11 but hoping to go OV instead. 6 straight wins vs ACC teams now, I believe. While I think the number is a bit tall, I'm really liking what I've seen with VT but this total could/should come in low after the deceptive output for them last week coupled with VT playing an all womens offense.

 

[gps_3]

Not an SEC game, but is there any reason I shouldn't bet Rutgers? I'm seeing +13.5 right now, hoping it will cross 14, but as mentioned elsewhere, they don't seem to quit when they get down, and Iowa isn't exactly the kind of team that will run away from you

 

[CrimsonK]

No opinion from me. I don't have a feel for Rutgers yet. Prob will be first week I'm not involved in an Iowa game this year. I'll say this, I watched the game and they got pushed around a good bit by NDSU. I still think they are pretty offensively challenged but they could keep them to a number similar to what Wash did and then you are going to need them to really step it up defensively.

 

[KobeJames823]

Alabama's recent history in massive spread games

2015
Charleston Southern (-40.5) - 56 - 6
UL Monroe (-37.5) - 34-0
Middle Tennessee (-34.5) - 27-10

2014
Florida Atlantic (-42) - 41-0
Southern Mississippi (-47) - 52-12
Western Carolina (-50.5) - 48-14

2013
Colorado State (-40) - 34-0
Georgia State (-54.5) - 45-3
Chatanooga (-49) - 49-0

I just don't think Saban is the kind of guy who wants to pay some school to show up at Alabama then literally embarrass them. He's not going to purposely not play (i.e take a knee three times then punt) but I think he'll give Kent State every chance to cover 43.5 on Saturday and it would take a few things well out of the ordinary (Defense/special teams TD, etc) to cover that number. 1-7-1 their last nine ATS at home against teams laying at least 35 is a clear sign to Saban not being the type to run it up.

 

[KobeJames823]

Any thoughts on Vandy/WKU? I like the spot here for WKU seeing as Vanderbilt is quite bad against the pass this year when you compare to their opponents (over 7 yards a pass playing South Carolina at home, Middle Tennessee State, and Georgia Tech). You have Houston Baptist next week for WKU so it's clearly all eyes focused on this one.

 

[gps_3]

Any thoughts on Vandy/WKU? I like the spot here for WKU seeing as Vanderbilt is quite bad against the pass this year when you compare to their opponents (over 7 yards a pass playing South Carolina at home, Middle Tennessee State, and Georgia Tech). You have Houston Baptist next week for WKU so it's clearly all eyes focused on this one.

Vandy kept it close last year against a better WKU team. I would think that Vandy's defense would be a strength here, but they haven't looked so hot so far this season. This is a stay away for me, but you have to think WKU will be geeked up to beat an SEC team, even if it is Vanderbilt. Can't imagine anybody but the player's parents will make the drive from Nashville to Bowling Green, so I think it's WKU or nothing

 

[CrimsonK]

Just bet some more:

App St/Akron Under 61 (LOL)
Florida/UT Under 45.5 (big)
ECU/VT Over 56
Iowa/Rutgers Under 55.5
Ga So/WMU Under 57.5
Kent/Alabama Under 54
Cal/Az St Over 80.5

Syracuse +6 -115

 

[pressitup]

I think it's the whiskey, but I have a real feeling Aubbie wins this week.

 

[CrimsonK]

I think it's the whiskey, but I have a real feeling Aubbie wins this week.

It's def the whiskey :cheers3:

 

[CrimsonK]

I bet another total.

Houston/Texas St Under 63

Been reading up on this game and while Herman says that Texas St is not Lamar, in reference to Ward sitting and resting the shoulder, I think if he does play it will be on a limited basis. So I don't expect an offensive explosion from Houston and I think last week at Arky was a pretty good indicator of what we can expect from Tex St against a superior - 53 plays, 105 yards, 1.98 ypp, 1 trip inside the Arky 40 and a 21% success rate in a 42-3 loss. Last season Tex St did fine offensively against Houston in 14-59 loss but looks like they've taken a sizable step back. If Ward were 100% and Houston hadn't already made two nat'l TV splashes in 3 weeks I would probably pass but those situations coupled with a short week on deck hosting ESPN and Uconn next Thursday and I think it's a good look to stay under 9 TD

 

[s--k]

Vols D has bunch of injuries. One of the Ohio recaps above mentioned Cam Sutton's injury (fractured ankle out extended time), but LB Reevis-Maybin left the game (shoulder inj - expected back this week) as did LB/DB Quarte Sapp (ACL). And LB Darrin Kirkland (ankle sprain vs VT) and DL LaTroy Lewis (ankle sprain vs VT - 7 tkl vs App St) were out coming into the Ohio game.

 

[s--k]

Not sure how much it would matter, could in terms of calling off the dogs, but Saban was ofcourse an Kent State player and coach. Kent St AD sent a few players down in 2011 to help with tornado clean up assistance. That year Bama beat Kent 48-7 laying 39.

 

[CrimsonK]

Not sure how much it would matter, could in terms of calling off the dogs, but Saban was ofcourse an Kent State player and coach. Kent St AD sent a few players down in 2011 to help with tornado clean up assistance. That year Bama beat Kent 48-7 laying 39.

I think it plays a role. Probably more than that is the physical game played last week where more guys got hurt than I can ever remember in a Bama game with the toughest month of the schedule upcoming as well as Bama needing to line up and establish more of the power run game which has been relatively absent thus far. Should be about an hour long 2H, all in.

 

[aplous]

Interested to hear your thoughts on Wisky/Mich St. After Sparty pulled the big upset I circled UW in my head assuming Clement is a go. Was hoping for +4.5 or better.

 

[RetroVK]

I would be wary fading bama. Two weeks in a row where boosters got absolutely rat-fucked out of covers. How does kent st get more than 7 first downs through the first three and a half quarters?

 

[C-MAN]

I get the point, but didn't the WKY/Ala game drop to -27 by game time? Well, maybe not in Alabama. Also, it is the position Ala was in last year vs UL Monroe in week 4 when they won 34-0 laying -37.5. Actually last year was worse considering they lost SU to Ole Miss (losing teasers as well).

 

[RetroVK]

Ya they will be vanilla and in no hurry. Just think it is short field after short field.

 

[gps_3]

Interested to hear your thoughts on Wisky/Mich St. After Sparty pulled the big upset I circled UW in my head assuming Clement is a go. Was hoping for +4.5 or better.

Wisconsin banged up and will possibly be playing two QBs. Also what they want to do mirrors what Mich St wants to do (run the ball, stop the run), but Sparty does it better. And I think Mich St is one of those teams that is coached well enough to not pat themselves on the back for too long after a big win. It may have been an upset, but I don't think they see it that way. Almost letting Notre Dame back in the game should help them regain their focus. If the game was in Madison, I would possibly look at Wisky.

 

[gps_3]

I get the point, but didn't the WKY/Ala game drop to -27 by game time? Well, maybe not in Alabama. Also, it is the position Ala was in last year vs UL Monroe in week 4 when they won 34-0 laying -37.5. Actually last year was worse considering they lost SU to Ole Miss (losing teasers as well).

I have an Alabama based bookie and I got Alabama -27.5 an hour before kickoff against WKU. I'm not sure Saban cares about covering for the sake of boosters betting on the team either. I think in these games Saban first and foremost wants to win. Then he wants the team to work on specific plays, formations, and personnel groupings. Last, he wants to empty the bench as much as possible. He doesn't want to embarrass the other team, but he will do everything he can to accomplish his goals. If that means they win 56-0 so be it. But if it ends up being 48-7 with 5 minutes left, we're going to run up the middle until the game is over. I wouldn't take Alabama at the current number, and I will consider a bet on Kent state, but the worry is that Alabama is really good at scoring non-offensive TDs, and has the capability to shut out a team like this. To my earlier point, if we return a punt for a TD in the 3rd quarter to go up 38-0, but the first team offense hasn't gotten the reps Saban thinks they need, they will go out there and try to execute again and could score to make it 45-0.

Based on Saban's comments after the Ole Miss game, he wants the offense to work on edge blocking on the jet sweeps and WR screens as well as getting Hurts more comfortable throwing the ball. So that could easily result in Alabama scoring early and often, or it may result in the offense struggling to perform the things it has struggled most with. All of this is a long way to say that there are likely better games to bet on. I doubt Alabama covers 6+ TDs, but would it surprise anybody if they did?

 

[M.W.]

Not sure how much it would matter, could in terms of calling off the dogs, but Saban was ofcourse an Kent State player and coach. Kent St AD sent a few players down in 2011 to help with tornado clean up assistance. That year Bama beat Kent 48-7 laying 39.

That was the season opener. It's a different mindset for Saban in mid-season, especially after a big SEC win.

 

[CrimsonK]

Vols D has bunch of injuries. One of the Ohio recaps above mentioned Cam Sutton's injury (fractured ankle out extended time), but LB Reevis-Maybin left the game (shoulder inj - expected back this week) as did LB/DB Quarte Sapp (ACL). And LB Darrin Kirkland (ankle sprain vs VT) and DL LaTroy Lewis (ankle sprain vs VT - 7 tkl vs App St) were out coming into the Ohio game.

Just to give context to those who may not be familiar with these guys and their impact - Sutton, Kirkland and Reeves-Maybin (probable) are three of let's say the Vols 5 most important and best defenders. They will definitely be without Sutton (DB and projected top 50 draft pick), likely without Kirkland (MLB) and R-M (WLB and MVP, IMO) looks like he will give it a go from what I can gather. Not having Sutton to defend Callaway (? with quad sat last week and is far and away Gators most dangerous scoring threat) would be a big loss.

 

[CrimsonK]

This game has 20-17 written all over it. How in the world is Tennessee going to move the ball? Dobbs will have to have the best passing game of his life IMO to cover the current # of 7.5. I read that Callaway was out for North Texas game, anyone know if he'll be back for this one?

Just read that Tenny had 5 fumbles against Ohio and recovered them all. That's 10 fumbles in 2 games that they have recovered and lost none. There has to be some regression to the mean there one would think

There have been 18 fumbles in UT games so far (That is absurd in itself) and the Vols have recovered 15 of them! The nat'l avg is 50%. Thos numbers are nearly four standard deviations above the mean outlier. The odds of them recovering 15/18 are 320.3/1. So, yes, regression is coming. This is what looks even worse for them, they could be 0-3 without that kind of luck. In looking at their adjusted scoring margins (how many a team "should" have won/lost by accordingly only to stats) they read +1.6 versus app st, 7.6 versus VT, 10.7 versus Ohio. If they don't elevate their level of play big time and the luck starts regressing, they are looking at 0-4 their next 4, which I personally would not favor them in any of those next 4.