gps_3 Week 2 SEC

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
2013: 13-11 +4.9 units


Week 2 (locked in):

Ohio St -27' (3u)
Okie St -26' (2u)
Tulane -6' (2u)
S. Carolina +3' (2u)
Arkansas St +10'
WKU +13 (2u)

Baylor -27' (3u)
Oregon -22' (2u)
Wash St +16 (2u)
SJSt +25' (2u)
Da U/UF U 48 (2u)

Notre Dame +4
Southern Miss +28 (2u)
Oklahoma -21 (2u)

Ball St -8'
 
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Had a pretty good week 1. Great Saturday that was offset by losers on Th, Fr, Sun, and Mon. Pretty much nailed the SEC games, but that could have been luck as much as anything. Just started looking over the week 2 card. As far as SEC is concerned, the schedule is pretty embarrassing. Only 3 or 4 games worth discussing. More to come...
 
Just starting into the card, and as I mentioned, the SEC schedule is garbage with 5 games against FCS schools. Hopefully the playoff will mean less of these games and more non-conference games against at least the Sun Belt, though UK might not appreciate that. A few thoughts from the SEC games I saw:

Vandy v Ole Miss was a great game, and the 4th quarter showed why they both struggle to get out of the 7-10 range in the SEC. Ole Miss is going to score points this year, and I expect them to beat a team they shouldn't, someone like LSU, Texas, or even Bama. Assuming everyone stays healthy, the Texas A&M game could be a toss up or even have OM favored. Vandy is not going to beat anyone on athleticism, but they are well coached enough to play hard in every game and will sneak up on some teams. From looking at schedules, I think I remember them getting some teams in favorable situations

I watched the 2nd half of LSU and they looked pretty close to what I expected. Mettenberger made some good throws and decisions, the defense looked fast and athletic, and the RBs ran hard. I have to think the lack of experience will hurt them at some point this season, but make no mistake, this is a team with a legit chance to win the SEC.

SCAR looked good from what I could tell watching in the bar. Jumped up early and took the foot off the pedal which is understandable with UGA on deck, and also the weather delay. Don't get the Clowney criticisms. That's how he always played. He can't knock a helmet off every tackle. Offense had some nice drives, but on some occasions it appeared the UNC defense was as responsible as the SC offense.

What happened in the UGA game was not unexpected. They lost too much on defense, and the defense they had last year was prone to giving up big numbers against competent offenses. Murray and Richt continue to make Murray and Richt mistakes. Also, how important is a competent special teams unit in a game like that? Todd Gurley is awesome by the way. Best back in America IMO. Terrible about Mitchell as well. They were counting on him to stretch the field this season. Murray will still put up big numbers, but likely against inferior defenses

Didn't watch the Auburn game, but my inlaws were watching on the iPad while we watched the UGA game so I caught a few plays here and there. My biggest takeaway is that, despite what the Auburn folks want you to believe, Nick Marshall is not Cam Newton 2.0. He's not Tyrod Taylor 2.0. He's more Brent Schaeffer than anyone at this point. The good news for him and Aub fans is that Gus' offense fits that type of player just fine. Now on defense, their LBs are brutal. There is some young talent on the DL and in the backfield certainly, but they will struggle a lot this season and won't get much help from the LBs. I expect a safety to lead the team in tackles. By a lot.

As for Bama, we all saw the same thing. The OL looks like it not only took a step backward from last year, but that it was replaced by one fewer player than needed. The best I can explain it (Bama fan opinion FWIW) was a combination of a few things, mainly stemming from there being 3 first time starters: communication and trust issues, nerves, and general inexperience. I think AJ lost faith after a couple of drives and his play showed that for the rest of the game. The offense as a whole played uninspired and I believe there was a lack of focus, probably reading all the praise and maybe an eye toward College Station. Also think Va Tech defense is above average. Bud Foster is a great DC and he dialed up a great plan, and our OL got whipped. I say all of that to say that I'm not writing off this group yet. All of those issues can be fixed. And I think they will play well against aTm and LSU, but I worry about their focus when teams like Ole Miss come to town. Defense looked great, but Logan Thomas is the worst 4 year starting QB in NCAA history. Christion Jones was a man on returns, but he runs backwards too much for me to completely trust him. If Bama can't iron out some of these issues during the bye, they won't win the West, much less the BCS

Texas A&M is what we think they are. A team with a great offensive system that will be good with anyone playing QB, but can be great with Manziel. Defense was terrible, but they were missing 6 starters I think. Still no reason to let Rice run all over you. Manziel definitely did everything he could to keep his detractors happy by acting like he did. I assume he'll continue to play great, but I feel like it might affect his teammates more than himself. That said, I think Manziel will cost his team a game with his attitude before the season is over.

Those were the only games I watched, still going through box scores. Will have thoughts on this week's games later.
 
Nice work gps!!! I'm with you South Carolina and Okie State. Would love to hear yours and Twink's thoughts on the Tulane game. I was kind of leaning the other way.
 
Twink, if you say it about Tulane, I don't argue. Plus, I'm originally from Mobile, can't see myself ever betting on USA until the whole team is full of SEC castoffs
 
Nice work gps!!! I'm with you South Carolina and Okie State. Would love to hear yours and Twink's thoughts on the Tulane game. I was kind of leaning the other way.

How come?

Tulane's roster has improved good bit...My only concern is Montana, he didn't thorw much in the game but he didn't have to. I woulda liked to see him air it out a bit more, but I believe he had some first game jitters....You will see Powell in packages, but from the way he looked Montana knows it is all him(qb starter).
 
How come?

Tulane's roster has improved good bit...My only concern is Montana, he didn't thorw much in the game but he didn't have to. I woulda liked to see him air it out a bit more, but I believe he had some first game jitters....You will see Powell in packages, but from the way he looked Montana knows it is all him(qb starter).

I don't question you on Tulane Twink.

:shake:
 
Was looking to hit Arky St pretty hard, but the line went the opposite direction I thought it would, so I hit +10' for one unit. Hopefully there will be a correction as my book is based in Alabama, and the AU fans will start betting it heavily closer to game time. If it gets back over 11' I will add at least another unit
 
Some thoughts on SEC non-FCS matchups:

UK -17 vs Miami, OH: Must win game for Stoops. I have a hard time capping these kind of games because they don't interest me very much. Both teams suck, but one is a shitty MAC team and the other is a shitty SEC team. Don't see this game as bettable, but I do expect UK to win. If they are able, I feel like they will keep scoring so the new staff looks good in front of the home crowd. Just 8 weeks to basketball season

Florida -3 vs Miami, FL: From all reports, the Gates still have a nasty defense and a struggling offense. I expect a lot of running plays by both teams and extended drives that result in FG attempts. I am taking the under as I expect this to be a 21-17 type game. My gut says take the home dog, but not like there's a great HFA for the Canes.

AU -10' vs Ark St: Good thoughts in Rex's thread, but to repeat, not much distinguishing these two teams. I don't agree with most who claim that AU has a ton of talent, they are just young. I think the previous staff did a horrific job evaluating and developing, and Malzahn has his work cut out for him. Fortunately for AU, his offense can make mediocre talent competitive against most teams. Unfortunately for AU, their defense sucks hard. Ark St will certainly have the emotional edge by taking on their former coach, and AU has a critical game against Miss St next week, so this one should stay close. I'm not ready to say Ark St wins, but it wouldn't surprise me.

S. Carolina +3 at UGA: Obviously the biggest game on the SEC slate. Even with the loss, UGA can remain in the national championship picture with a win. Lose, and they are out of not only the nat'l championship hunt, but way behind in the East. Clemson was able to put pressure on Murray last week, and I assume Clowney will find a way to pressure the QB as well. Todd Gurley is an absolute beast, but he won't be able to carry the team by himself. I don't think Murray has what it takes to win big games, and not so sure about Richt either. Think SC wins this one straight up by running the ball against UGA's porous defense and forcing a key turnover or two
 
I respect you too much for me to let that go.....what you seeing brother?

First of all, I have no interest in betting the side in this game, but I did have some interest in the UNDER.

USA is a local team for me just as Tulane is a local team for you, and I'll admit some possible bias. I honestly have not followed USA much until this year because a pretty good friend of mine was recently hire on the coaching staff. Accordingly, I have a free sideline pass for any and all home game I choose to attend. I passed on their Thursday night game against Southern Utah. In fact I actually had Southern Utah +17 in that game.

I know Tulane is improved, but so is USA. The fact that Tulane only completed 7 passes versus Jackson State is somewhat concerning. Furthermore, they averaged a rather meager 3.7 yards per rush. So, apparently they couldn't throw or run the ball effectively, were terrible on 3rd down, and were out-gained by Jackson State. Obviously I didn't watch the game, but I'm not sure how Tulane could have played any worse on offense. Tulane's success appeared to have rested almost solely upon the 6 Jackson State turnovers.

As I said, I may consider an UNDER play here, but I see that RAS just hit the UNDER, so the value has probably been sucked out of that play. Probably just a "no play" for me at this point.
 
always enjoy the thoughts in your thread.

best of luck this week.

re clowney:

from ESPN - [FONT=Arial, sans-serif]when Clowney was on the field, Renner's completion rate was 52%. When he was off the field, it was 75%. [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Unrealistic expectations, an offense that is not conducive to sacking the QB, a very good LT, and brutal temperature on the field led to Clowney's stat sheet only showing 3 tackles and 3 hurries.


[/FONT]
 
Added more plays. May make some team total and 2h bets throughout day. Once my local releases FCS lines, I'll look to take Sam Houston St. Reasoning can be found in tru's thread, but pretty much playing the lookahead, missing players, and Sumlin trying to control Manziel angle.
 
7-8 for week 2 for -0.4 units. Felt I had a really good read on some games and way off on the others. Need to work on tightening up my cards in the coming weeks. Should be better games (and harder to cap) moving forward as conference play ramps up and we get fewer FBS vs FCS teams
 
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