gps_3 Week 10 SEC Discussion and Plays

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
2015: 91-65-3

Week 9: 11-8


Locked In:

Penn St +2'
Arkansas +11
aTm -7
Miss St -7'
Temple -13'
UNC/Duke UN 56'
UGA/UK UN 57'
Cincinnati +8
UT/SC OV 56'
Oklahoma -26
Alabama/LSU UN 48'
Pittsburgh +8'
Oregon -4'
Florida St +12
TCU -4'
Mizzou TT UN 17'
Baylor TT OV 42
UF/Vandy UN 36
Wash/Utah UN 44

Futures:

Conference title:

OU to win Big12: +400
Mich St to win B1G: +625
ASU to win Pac12: +700
UGA to win SEC: +450
LSU to win SEC: +900

Season win totals:

tOSU U 11' -120 (8-0)
AU U 8' +130 (4-4)
TCU U 10 +115 (9-0)
UGA O 9 -140 (5-3)
Ole Miss O 8' -120 (7-2)
Oklahoma O 8' -140 (7-1)
UCLA U 9 -125 (6-2)
Wisconsin O 9 -115 (7-2)
 
Last edited:
Twink trying to steal my thunder, but I guess I'll still make a thread...

SEC Week 10 games with my PR spreads:

Miss St @ Missouri (+11)

UK @ UGA (-13)

Vandy @ UF (-20')

South Carolina @ UT (-13')

LSU @ Alabama (-8)

Arkansas @ Ole Miss (-7')

AU @ aTm (-11')

Will bounce back and forth between this thread and the LSU/Alabama one with thoughts on that game as time allows, other thoughts and discussion go here.
 
Cashed my first future of the season with the AU Tigers spiraling toward a losing record. Going to have to sweat out the others for sure.
 
Another nice week for you, GPS. This may be my last day to chime in, looking like we're getting closer to meeting our little girl. Here are the numbers I made and posted in last week's thread:

Miss St @ Mizzou (Thurs) - Miss St -10 (38.5)

Vandy @ Florida - UF -17 (37.5)


Kentucky @ UGA - UGA -7.5 (46.5)


Arkansas @ Ole Miss - Ole Miss -4.5 (52)


South Carolina @ Tennessee - Tennessee -16.5 (54)


Auburn @ A&M - A&M - 14 (56.5)


LSU @ Bama - Bama -5.5 (40)

Can tell ya right off based on projected variance there will be opportunity on totals to go under on Miss St/Mizz and LSU/Bama and opps on sides on Kentucky, Arkansas, A&M.

I posted the above comment on Saturday night and no surprise the big discrepancies were on those 3 sides, all about a TD different. Imagine the two totals above will be off too from my number and I've been rethinking UT/USCe and I think I could have maybe made that total higher too but would have to dig back in for more research.
 
One thing I wanted to note, I didn't actually see any of Vandy/Houston but it looks like that scoreline was a bit deceptive. Vandy offense essentially gave Houston 21 points. Vandy rush defense was pretty dominant holding Houston to just under 3 ypc (51 for 150) which is about half of their average. The problem with Vandy, act surprised, is their abysmal offense. Really is a shame cause this is a very good defense and they deserve better. Vandy QB's 5/20 for 44 yards 0TD and 3 INT. You just can't compete like that. Houston had scoring drives of 5 yards, 12 yards, a pick 6, 42 yards, 36 yards and one sustained drive where they got a FG of 77 yards. If Vandy even had the equivalent of 90th ranked offense I think they potentially could have won the game. Now I may be accused of being an SEC homer and trying to make a case for the good guys but I'm not. I think Houston is a good team but let's pump the breaks before we get riled up about them being able to compete with the big boys week in and week out. I got some back lash on a Bama site last night when I gave an opinion that the SEC East was the worst divsion of any Power 5 conference and then gave Bill Connely's S&P+ rankings as supporting evidence. Vandy may go down as one of the greatest under teams I can ever remember. It took several travesties to even get this one to 30 points and Houston is one of the prolific offenses in the country. I really get the sense there is a chance 20 points may not even be scored in the sleeper in the swamp coming up this weekend. Florida is still drunk probably and Vandy won't find an offense against this group so I guess there prob rates to be some defensive scoring like we just saw from UF but I think they could actually give UF a bit of trouble due to the situation although they should see max effort with a potential win and clinch on the line.
 
Miss St vs Missou is lined short, I think. The West dominates the East and Mizzou may be getting some name recognition but this is a terrible football team. Put them in the group with Vandy where the offense is beyond dreadful but they have a talented defense. Don't know that challenging the thursday night home dog is in my DNA but finding a potential creative way to back Miss St would be something I'd look into, will prob have a chance to just take the under, maybe.. I don't envision a scenario where Missouri gets to 20 points, think they prob top out around 17 and that may even be generous as they average 14.9 ppg and this is certainly a top 5 defense they'll face on their schedule - Vandy held them to 3, Florida held them to 3, UGA to 6, UConn to 9. You get the picture. Weird stuff happens with thursday night home dogs but I don't really think it matters who is under center for them. Mauk is the better option right now, sure, but he doesn't value the football and has been flat out inaccurate every chance I've seen him this year. Mizzou hasn't scored a touchdown since October 3..... Prescott values the football and that is key against a team like Mizzou that prob doesn't rate to move it and score except on short fields or trickeration.
 
Saw on the twitters yesterday that Mauk has been permanently dismissed from the team

Good thoughts CK, and good luck with everything this week. Make sure your elbow is glued to her ear during the delivery. Look if you must, but you can't unsee what happens there.
 
UK @ UGA: I think UGA was a bit unlucky last game. Bauta prob proved to be a bad move, he got the start, supposedly, because of his mobility. Problem is, we saw as much of his mobility as we saw of Copper Bateman's against Ole Miss when he got the start - none. Few plays went bad for UGA or else that game could have been totally different. He threw a bad pick in the end zone on one of their few good drives and he got hit as he was throwing on what would have been a sure TD that resulted in a INT and VHIII pretty much took it to the house. The UGA defense was really good again, they continue to perform well, IMO, as UF had good yardage numbers but if you actually watched the game they didn't move it very well at all and really only had two sustained drives that i can remember. I think the issue in this one is UGA has to be lost. When you take a shot on a guy like Bauta and it doesn't work out and you get crushed by your rival, I imagine you have to have a divided and soul-crushed locker room. How do they get up for this game? A nooner against the Cats who they raked to the tune of 60 something to 20 last year in Lexington? Just a super tough spot psychologically in this nasty sammich spot for the dogs after the cocktail party and before a trip to rival Auburn. I think we see yet another grinder here where the offenses nap and the defenses have most success. I don't like the UK defense really at all, i think they are clearly better on the offenisve side of the ball I just don't rate the UGA offense very high at all right now and have no idea what their gameplan may be or who they plan to go with at QB. I guess you back to Bauta again, you know Lambert is a mug. Gotta run now, short on time but I think this is another good spot for an under as this one will likely be totaled low to mid 50's and I think it plays in 40's.
 
gps_3 said:
Saw on the twitters yesterday that Mauk has been permanently dismissed from the team

Good thoughts CK, and good luck with everything this week. Make sure your elbow is glued to her ear during the delivery. Look if you must, but you can't unsee what happens there.
Click to expand...

I thoughtI heard Mauk was back this past weekend somewhere but maybe I heard just the opposite. lol, thanks buddy. May be in later today, headed to doc now.
 
Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I really like Arkansas this weekend, especially getting double digits against Ole Miss. 10th game in 10 weeks for Ole Miss and Arkansas has been playing some pretty solid ball since the loss to Texas Tech. Arkansas' run game can shorten the game and limit possessions for Ole Miss. It is certainly a concern that Arkansas has the worst pass defense in the conference and is facing the best pass offense in conference, so I'll have to look at it some more.
 
gps_3 said:
Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I really like Arkansas this weekend, especially getting double digits against Ole Miss. 10th game in 10 weeks for Ole Miss and Arkansas has been playing some pretty solid ball since the loss to Texas Tech. Arkansas' run game can shorten the game and limit possessions for Ole Miss. It is certainly a concern that Arkansas has the worst pass defense in the conference and is facing the best pass offense in conference, so I'll have to look at it some more.
Click to expand...

Agree, at 10.5 it's prob my fav side in conf this week. Not sure what it's done since.
 
CrimsonK said:
One thing I wanted to note, I didn't actually see any of Vandy/Houston but it looks like that scoreline was a bit deceptive. Vandy offense essentially gave Houston 21 points. Vandy rush defense was pretty dominant holding Houston to just under 3 ypc (51 for 150) which is about half of their average. The problem with Vandy, act surprised, is their abysmal offense. Really is a shame cause this is a very good defense and they deserve better. Vandy QB's 5/20 for 44 yards 0TD and 3 INT. You just can't compete like that. Houston had scoring drives of 5 yards, 12 yards, a pick 6, 42 yards, 36 yards and one sustained drive where they got a FG of 77 yards. If Vandy even had the equivalent of 90th ranked offense I think they potentially could have won the game. Now I may be accused of being an SEC homer and trying to make a case for the good guys but I'm not. I think Houston is a good team but let's pump the breaks before we get riled up about them being able to compete with the big boys week in and week out. I got some back lash on a Bama site last night when I gave an opinion that the SEC East was the worst divsion of any Power 5 conference and then gave Bill Connely's S&P+ rankings as supporting evidence. Vandy may go down as one of the greatest under teams I can ever remember. It took several travesties to even get this one to 30 points and Houston is one of the prolific offenses in the country. I really get the sense there is a chance 20 points may not even be scored in the sleeper in the swamp coming up this weekend. Florida is still drunk probably and Vandy won't find an offense against this group so I guess there prob rates to be some defensive scoring like we just saw from UF but I think they could actually give UF a bit of trouble due to the situation although they should see max effort with a potential win and clinch on the line.
Click to expand...
you think a healthier kenneth farrow changes any of rush d numbers for vandy in your opinion?
 
gps_3 said:
Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I really like Arkansas this weekend, especially getting double digits against Ole Miss. 10th game in 10 weeks for Ole Miss and Arkansas has been playing some pretty solid ball since the loss to Texas Tech. Arkansas' run game can shorten the game and limit possessions for Ole Miss. It is certainly a concern that Arkansas has the worst pass defense in the conference and is facing the best pass offense in conference, so I'll have to look at it some more.
Click to expand...

gsro said:
you think a healthier kenneth farrow changes any of rush d numbers for vandy in your opinion?
Click to expand...

If he's healthy he certainly helps. Without watching the game I can't tell how much push they were getting and whether they were hitting holes and such.
 
gps_3 said:
Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I really like Arkansas this weekend, especially getting double digits against Ole Miss. 10th game in 10 weeks for Ole Miss and Arkansas has been playing some pretty solid ball since the loss to Texas Tech. Arkansas' run game can shorten the game and limit possessions for Ole Miss. It is certainly a concern that Arkansas has the worst pass defense in the conference and is facing the best pass offense in conference, so I'll have to look at it some more.
Click to expand...
Really like the Hogs this week.
 
Pump fake, I'm back for today at least so will give some other thoughts on the rest of the games. Just saw totals on BM

UGA/Uk UNDER 56
Bama/lSU Under 54 for as much money as ya got in the bank lol
 
I think at this point I'd have to go something like this from BM:

UGA/UK UNDER 55
Bama/LSU UNDER 54
Arkansas +11
Texas A&M -7
Vanderbilt +21.5

I don't think you will do any better on any of those from a line value standpoint throughout the week. Really like those 5
 
Very reliable person for me said he was doing blow in his car and evaded officers before he was suspended the first time, pretty much Pinkel wanted him gone then. Don't know what happened after that, but his leash was short.
 
Arky at Ole Miss - Arky crushed them on the scoreboard 30-0 LY but it was really a lot closer. Brandon Allen got knocked out the game midway through the second quarter in a wet and emotional senior day in Arkansas. Bad Bo was in full effect for the Rebs that day and threw two really bad picks in the end zone and lost a fumble and got hurt early. After Allen (the big brother and starter at QB got hurt) the hogs just committed to running it and only threw like 5 passes from midway through 2Q to the end of the game. I think the Arkansas defense is really pretty well equipped to stop OM. They kept them to less than 2 ypc on 30+ carries last season and while the run game has improved with Tunsil being back in there, it's more to keep teams honest than really be effective based upon the way I saw a real bad Auburn team contain them for the most part last week. A 3-6 Arkansas team went to Oxford couple years ago and played them to a 24-34 loss and I think Arkansas has gotten lot better under Bert B. Not that I think motivation will play huge factor in the game cause both teams will be but Arky needs this one to go bowling and I really like a point spread aware double digit dog in Bert. I'll prob raise some eyebrows but I prefer the Arky offense to the OM offense and I think they can be really efficieicnt as they have been all year with a mix of run and pass, much like Alabama implemented and was very successful. If Arky stays in manageable 2nd and 3rd downs I actually like them to be in position to win outright. Defense has to play a lot better than last week though, really inexcusable to let UT Martin move the ball like they did but I've seen enough good things recently in the Bama and Auburn games to think that was more an anomaly.
 
From @SECNetwork
Most Consecutive Drives without a TD
1. Missouri 40
2. Georgia 28
3. Vanderbilt 25
4. Kent State 25
 
Some thoughts on Aub/aTm..

There was one series last week where Auburn used three different QB on three consecutive plays and none of them would start for Vaderbilt this upcoming weekend should they have signed a diiferent LOI. Sometimes a QB shake-up is what a team needs, see aTm last week. Sometimes a QB shakeup (s)(?) is indicative of an identity crisis, see Auburn last week. Auburn is rumored to be repping Jonathan Wallace, the former qb turned wr turned qb(?), as a fourth guy in the rotation this week. Sean White was wearing a knee brace last week and was even less mobile than usual. That would be fine probably if Auburn had options on the perimeter other than Louis and White was a good passer, unfortunately for Auburn, neither are true. This has to be a dream scenario for John Chavis to essentially be in a scenario where the buck is shot and bleeding, just gotta get on the scent and see it through to it's demise. That's what I see this game as being for the Auburn season. aTm shouldn't be all too unfamiliar of being on the ropes with no easy QB and offensive answer easily in the mix, howver, they finally put the kid in last week and he didn't disappoint. He really looked like JFF out there to me. He just has "it", think this would have been his 43rd win a row as a QB as he never lost in high school and is the son of aTm's previous JFF, Kevin Murray. He ran for a buck fifty, passed for 223 and scored through the air and on the ground. Auburn has two above average SEC players on defense, Lawson and Davis, but other than that, they don't have much and I think the Aggs have a field day on both sides of the ball. Finesse offense in Auburn with no identity running a system they aren't equipped to against a defense that is tailor made to win in space id a matchup I really like. Think this is a great time to buy aTm and the last chance to fade Auburn at a price where they are valued like they are a top 40 club
 
I don't have much to say in the way of UT and S Carolina. Both teams are buys for me right now. The USCe offense found new life last week as they drastically changed the offense and ran a lot of option looks, zone reads and sweeps. They were actually really explosive on offense and were 6+ ypp. Tenny was the beneficiary last week of a couple ST's scores and short fields. I think maybe looking at a USCe TT OVER could be worth a look, weather permitting. Would think it be around 20, looks like 36.5 - 20 forecasted based on side and total. I think I initially made the total 54 but I think that's a bad number on my part and would prob make it a bit higher. Pass for me I think, looks like good numbers and don't have much to comment on. GPS, looks like you made Tenny shorter, any interest in a 17 or 17' on Scary?
 
Been adding all week, yet neglected to post.

Penn St +2'
Arkansas +11
aTm -7
Miss St -7'
Temple -13'
UNC/Duke UN 56'
UGA/UK UN 57'
Cincinnati +8
UT/SC OV 56'
Oklahoma -26
Alabama/LSU UN 48'
Pittsburgh +8'
 
CrimsonK said:
I don't have much to say in the way of UT and S Carolina. Both teams are buys for me right now. The USCe offense found new life last week as they drastically changed the offense and ran a lot of option looks, zone reads and sweeps. They were actually really explosive on offense and were 6+ ypp. Tenny was the beneficiary last week of a couple ST's scores and short fields. I think maybe looking at a USCe TT OVER could be worth a look, weather permitting. Would think it be around 20, looks like 36.5 - 20 forecasted based on side and total. I think I initially made the total 54 but I think that's a bad number on my part and would prob make it a bit higher. Pass for me I think, looks like good numbers and don't have much to comment on. GPS, looks like you made Tenny shorter, any interest in a 17 or 17' on Scary?
Click to expand...

Didn't see any of the SC/aTm game, so I don't really have a feel for how they are playing post-Spurrier. I do think UT can score plenty here, and SC is likely good for at least 21, so I took the over. Don't have confidence in SC's defense to stay within the number, even though my PR call for a closer game
 
I hate the hook but I'm thinking about taking State -7.5 in my pick league. If they can get to 21 without completely gifting field position multiple times they should be good.
 
M.O.T said:
I hate the hook but I'm thinking about taking State -7.5 in my pick league. If they can get to 21 without completely gifting field position multiple times they should be good.
Click to expand...

I don't really concern myself with the hook in NCAAF. No data to support it, but I feel like it doesn't come into play very often, at least compared to NFL. I don't think I've taken a -7.5 in the NFL in 5 years.
 
FYI, getting ugly in Athens. Appears Pruitt may be out. Solely rumors but from sources I trust.
 
gps_3 said:
Didn't see any of the SC/aTm game, so I don't really have a feel for how they are playing post-Spurrier. I do think UT can score plenty here, and SC is likely good for at least 21, so I took the over. Don't have confidence in SC's defense to stay within the number, even though my PR call for a closer game
Click to expand...

I look forward to this thread every week and I'm thankful for the amount of knowledge and information shared here. Thanks to those that contribute regularly.

I'll be on SC at 17 or better. I watched/listened to the game last week and this interim coach has them playing with intensity. They seem to have more of a pulse and desire to win with his energy and mojo.
 
Yea i took buy on my boys last week at 17.5 once I saw the Shawn Elliot press conference. Guy definitely has everyone a bit more fired up. I took 17 again and am slightly scared with Tenn's Offense but I also took the over here. Our defense is still not that great but did a lot better than I expected against aTm, if we can keep a similar performance I could see a close game again. If Perry throws his INT game we may be in for a long night.
 
Tifwiw, I was told he tried to go Saban on the program and his demeanor and expectations were a major clash with the culture. I'm certain that involved many cussins
 
Recruiting violations plus a rumored incident with Richt that we are told is unforgivable.

With that said, we could end up seeing nothing happen today and this is just rumors being embellished like a game of telephone.

I don't know what to believe. All I know is UGA is in a bad place right now.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

F
Play Offs
2
Replies
56
Views
1K
Fred57
F
bookieassassin
WEEK 6
Replies
34
Views
2K
winners41
W
T
ESPN Handicapper scores, Week 4
2
Replies
54
Views
2K
TahoeLegend
T
bookieassassin
WEEK 8
Replies
30
Views
2K
winners41
W
T
ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 7
2
Replies
77
Views
2K
bones
bones
Back
Top