gps_3 Week 1 SEC Discussion and Plays

I will be on the under in the 1st qtr of vandy /socar when I can get a number.
These two together averaged a whopping 5 pts in the 1st last year.

As past results do not necessarily etc...
It's almost an auto play for me.
 
Was reported yesterday that Blake Barnett took most of the reps with the first team O yesterday. I'm not sure that who plays QB is going to matter a whole lot for Alabama right off the bat. But with the WR we have, Bateman's relative lack of arm strength may make Kiffin and Saban lean toward Barnett or Hurts. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds Saturday. Still can't get a read on USC game. Everyone I hear says it will be an Alabama blowout, and it might be (I hope so), but something in the back of mind keeps saying this is like the Ohio St game a couple of seasons ago. I don't think USC is near as good as that tOSU team, just that nobody gave either team a chance. I think most likely it is relatively close for the first 2.5-3 quarters, then Alabama pulls away
 
I was under the impression that the one thing we knew for certain was that the starter for this game would not be Hurts.
 
clowncar said:
I was under the impression that the one thing we knew for certain was that the starter for this game would not be Hurts.
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Some guy that writes a column on the team for some website reported last week that, per his sources, Hurts had won over the team and would be named starter. He said it was from "very good" sources. Of course, his source wasn't Nick Saban, but it got a ton of people excited. The big surprise from the press conference was that Saban indicated that Hurts won't play at all against USC
 
I was surprised a bit. Momentum had really picked up that Hurts was going to win the job. Overall, I'm not surprised he didn't just yet but over what I've been hearing the past two weeks from some pretty good sources I have to say I'm surprised. In regards to this being a smoke screen, maybe. He won't start but if you read Sabans commentary he certainly doesn't close the door on Hurts being the guy this season nor being a factor in this game. Personally, I'm pulling for it being anybody other than Bateman. This receiver group is top 5 nationally and I just don't see him being the guy that maximizes their talent. All three guys can run more than anybody but Sims since the dynasty began but none more skilled than Hurts. I've gotta say that I'm pretty bummed but I'm really excited about Barnett's potential.
 
From a pure betting standpoint - I think Bateman getting the start (and even rotation of any sort) is best if you're holding an under ticket which my guess is will be popular.
 
ProV1Colt said:
Has to be a smoke screen no?
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That hasn't been Saban's MO in the past, so I doubt he's starting now. Like CrimsonK mentioned, he didn't shut the door on Hurts being the guy later in the season, just that he wasn't getting ready for this game. My guess is that it will play out exactly like the last 2 openers. One guy will play until the game is either in the bag, or is ineffective. In 2014 against WVU, everyone expected Sims and Coker to see action. Sims wasn't great, but he played the entire game except for Coker getting the last series to run the clock out. Last year, Coker played until the game was in hand and Bateman came in and handed the ball off basically for half a quarter. I don't think there will be a plan in place to bring a second QB into the game, will be an in the moment type thing. I think next week we're more likely to see multiple QBs play meaningful snaps
 
gps_3 said:
That hasn't been Saban's MO in the past, so I doubt he's starting now. Like CrimsonK mentioned, he didn't shut the door on Hurts being the guy later in the season, just that he wasn't getting ready for this game. My guess is that it will play out exactly like the last 2 openers. One guy will play until the game is either in the bag, or is ineffective. In 2014 against WVU, everyone expected Sims and Coker to see action. Sims wasn't great, but he played the entire game except for Coker getting the last series to run the clock out. Last year, Coker played until the game was in hand and Bateman came in and handed the ball off basically for half a quarter. I don't think there will be a plan in place to bring a second QB into the game, will be an in the moment type thing. I think next week we're more likely to see multiple QBs play meaningful snaps
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What's your thought on who will be the guy and also who do you want to be? BTW I gotta get that shirt in your avatar
 
CrimsonK said:
What's your thought on who will be the guy and also who do you want to be? BTW I gotta get that shirt in your avatar
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I don't really have a preference as to who it is, I just want to win games. And I don't have any clue as to who the guy is that gives us the best chance to win at this point. I have read practice reports and heard from guys who went to the scrimmages, but those are just small glimpses as to what's going on everyday, so I will defer to the coaches. I know they want to win. And my guess is that we can win with any of the three. As to how it plays out, I think it will be Bateman. He gets a bad rap for the Ole Miss game last year. It is definitely concerning that he froze when given the chance, but I can't say it's indicative of how his career will go. I do worry that he lacks the arm strength to take full advantage of our WR corps, but if he is able to manage the offense and not turn it over, I think Saban will stick with him. He's more concerned with winning games than appeasing us fans with big stats at the risk of costly turnovers. Ideally Barnett or Hurts would be the guy since they possess the physical skills that Bateman doesn't
 
gps_3 said:
I don't really have a preference as to who it is, I just want to win games. And I don't have any clue as to who the guy is that gives us the best chance to win at this point. I have read practice reports and heard from guys who went to the scrimmages, but those are just small glimpses as to what's going on everyday, so I will defer to the coaches. I know they want to win. And my guess is that we can win with any of the three. As to how it plays out, I think it will be Bateman. He gets a bad rap for the Ole Miss game last year. It is definitely concerning that he froze when given the chance, but I can't say it's indicative of how his career will go. I do worry that he lacks the arm strength to take full advantage of our WR corps, but if he is able to manage the offense and not turn it over, I think Saban will stick with him. He's more concerned with winning games than appeasing us fans with big stats at the risk of costly turnovers. Ideally Barnett or Hurts would be the guy since they possess the physical skills that Bateman doesn't
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In general, this pretty well describes how I've felt every year when this QB decision period happens but for whatever reason this year I feel stronger about not wanting it to be Bateman. I really don't know why either because I think he would be just fine. Maybe I just want to see Saban take a risk and see what we could do with a dynamic QB
 
G - I see you are on Southern Miss and looks like you're down on Kentucky this season as a whole with RSW bet. Do you have any opinion on the game total? It sickens me to admit it but I've been dangerously close to playing the under in that game numerous times as it has now crept up over 63. I know that both teams are most talented on the offensive side of the ball but this number is up there. I'm only going back to 2015 I don't have the info readily available in front of me to go past that but this total is higher than any UK game last year and USM only had 3 totals higher LY. I wonder about the skill losses USM is going to be dealing with.. Plays per game should be average. I suppose that Boom could just big boy and pound it down their throat but I can also make a case for them having some decent success even replacing some key front 7 guys while their strength will prob be against pass. Front 7 my biggest concern also on the other side of the ball so that could get a little dicey and doesn't leave me with tons of feel good taking an under but again their secondary looks pretty good if they can pressure Mullens.. I don't know, there are enough signs kinda pointing me towards it being an under game but I also don't have a great feel for either team yet. What do you see in USM and what may I be missing?
 
Another game that has been grabbing me is UCLA/aTm. I've somehow in the past week convinced myself that aTm may have as much to say about the SEC and potential national title as any team in the country. Now I don't think they will win either but I just see them as a team that has the potential to trip everybody up this year. I'm really finding it hard to find many knocks on them. Clearly the biggest cause for concern to me is the OL. Everywhere else on offense they have talent in bunches but obviously that only gets you so far if you can't block. So maybe that's a legit cause for concern in this game but certainly the weakness of the UCLA defense is up front and against the run. Secondary looks real solid. I know that the Ags have been shockingly disappointing but what we've come to expect from a Chavis defense but in this game they get an OL that is without 3 guys with 30+ career starts, without an extremely under rated RB (although Soso looks nasty) and missing so many of their WR that were so good last season. I think the Ags have to be better against the run this year, their DL is full of future NFL starters and I think they get a nice warm up here considering it's a prestigious power 5 opponent. Couple that with the fact that Rosen is still young and the road environments he has played in are all pretty came except for the game in Utah where Rosen was very pedestrian (15/30 220, 1/0 - 17 points) and I think that number at 3 may be short. I'm leaning heavy to a combo of the Ags, Under or UCLA TT under. Current forecast is 28-25 - tough for me to see either side getting to that TT, especially UCLA. Any thoughts from anyone?

Also, Grovehard, if you read this.. In the games with Freeze vs FCS, do you feel like he has intended to run it up in those games or is it just getting in the 2's and letting them play hard and not putting the governor on? I'm already eyeing one of the absolute nastiest week 2 short week lookahead sandwich with the triple option team coming to Oxford.. Line will prob be between 5 and 6 TD and I have some major interest in the dog and there being some points scored
 
CrimsonK said:
Another game that has been grabbing me is UCLA/aTm. I've somehow in the past week convinced myself that aTm may have as much to say about the SEC and potential national title as any team in the country. Now I don't think they will win either but I just see them as a team that has the potential to trip everybody up this year. I'm really finding it hard to find many knocks on them. Clearly the biggest cause for concern to me is the OL. Everywhere else on offense they have talent in bunches but obviously that only gets you so far if you can't block. So maybe that's a legit cause for concern in this game but certainly the weakness of the UCLA defense is up front and against the run. Secondary looks real solid. I know that the Ags have been shockingly disappointing but what we've come to expect from a Chavis defense but in this game they get an OL that is without 3 guys with 30+ career starts, without an extremely under rated RB (although Soso looks nasty) and missing so many of their WR that were so good last season. I think the Ags have to be better against the run this year, their DL is full of future NFL starters and I think they get a nice warm up here considering it's a prestigious power 5 opponent. Couple that with the fact that Rosen is still young and the road environments he has played in are all pretty came except for the game in Utah where Rosen was very pedestrian (15/30 220, 1/0 - 17 points) and I think that number at 3 may be short. I'm leaning heavy to a combo of the Ags, Under or UCLA TT under. Current forecast is 28-25 - tough for me to see either side getting to that TT, especially UCLA. Any thoughts from anyone?

Also, Grovehard, if you read this.. In the games with Freeze vs FCS, do you feel like he has intended to run it up in those games or is it just getting in the 2's and letting them play hard and not putting the governor on? I'm already eyeing one of the absolute nastiest week 2 short week lookahead sandwich with the triple option team coming to Oxford.. Line will prob be between 5 and 6 TD and I have some major interest in the dog and there being some points scored
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I don't think he intentionally runs it up in those games. He was coaching one of those caliber teams not so long ago. However, he doesn't alter his play calling very much when he puts the 2s and 3s in the game, and the run/pass option nature of his offense can lead to QBs taking shots downfield even when up big.

The interesting thing about that scenario this year is that we probably won't know who the backup QB is going in to the Wofford game. I don't know if Freeze is willing to burn Shea Patterson's (#1 or #2 QB in the '16 class depending on recruiting service) shirt that early against a team like Wofford. If Patterson doesn't get snaps, then it will be Pellerin who isn't going to do much with his arm even against Wofford. If Pellerin takes over for Kelly, I suspect that Freeze will be content to run read option and let the clock run.

There's no doubt that Freeze will be looking to get up big early and rest the starters.
 
Great, thanks for the response that's really helpful. I had assumed it would be Patterson but your point makes more sense.
 
Thanks guys. Was hella busy at work yesterday then drove to the beach, arriving after midnight. Then up with the kids this morning so just now seeing some of this stuff. Thanks for all the contributions.

Crimson, you're right, I'm way down on Kentucky. Think they may be worst team in the league, or at least even with SCAR. The play on SMiss is a PR play, similar to my Toledo play. I may be way off, but had success last year following my #s
 
Thanks for the response. Hope App St shows well for us tonight. Really just need to weather what could be an early storm and hopefully it plays out like the grinder I think it could be. I played Ralph Webb prop O95.5 rushing, Deeebo Samuel O3.5 grabs as well as S Utah/Utah U51.5 tonight.
 
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I drove all the way to the beach just in time for a hurricane. At least now I don't have to feel bad about staying inside watching football all weekend
 
Multiple suspensions for LSU, two of which are freshmen / reserve DB and WR and not a factor. But a key is reserve DL Frank Herron, who is basically the top reserve DE in the 3-4.
 
Adding:


tOSU -27', TT OV 46
WVU/Mizzou UN 50'
UNC/UGA OV 57
Clemson-8'
Michigan TT OV 47
Houston TT OV 27
 
Arkansas is all the way back down to -21 after shooting up to -26ish about a month ago. Any idea why?
 
No clue, but it's approaching a number I'm considering betting on Arky
 
Rumor is Blake Barnett is starting for Alabama tonight. Source is a player
 
What in darn nation did Saban see that would NOT have him not start Hurts? He's been trying to keep his back ups still @ Bama I would think. Hurts is the man. The others QBs should think about transferring. Hurts has QB locked down
 
I imagine Barnett will be planning his transfer on the plane ride home
 
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