gps_3 Week 1 SEC Discussion and Plays

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
2016: 0-0-0


Week 1:

Louisville -39'
Vanderbilt -3'
Appalachian St +20'
Toledo +3'
Southern Miss +6'
LSU -9' (2U)
Houston +10/10' (2U total)
Boise -20'
Texas +4'
Ole Miss +4
Boston College +3'


Season bets:

JT Barrett to win Heisman +1500
Miss St ov 6' wins
USC ov 7' wins
Utah ov 7' wins
Kentucky un 4' wins
Arkansas ov 7' wins
 
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Gonna try this again this year, where I post the SEC games for the week with my PR line and hope to drum discussion. All responses are welcome, but please don't be a dick. This is my 2nd year of doing PR and I adjust them regularly, but I'm still learning. I don't have a formula like some others, mine is mostly by feel and what I see with my own eyes, though I do read a lot of the relevant folks out there, particularly Bill Connelly and the F/+ system


Week 1 SEC (my PRs):

Vanderbilt (-5') vs SCAR
Tennessee (-11) vs App St
Mizzou (+8') @ WVU
Miss St (-24) vs USA
Kentucky (-3') vs S. Miss
Arky (-15) vs La tech
FLorida (-33) vs UMASS
AU (+9) vs Clemson
aTm (-2) vs UCLA
LSU (-11') vs Wisconsin
UGA (+.5) vs UNC
Alabama (-9') vs USC
Ole Miss (+4) vs FSU

Let's discuss...
 
Random Wednesday thoughts:

As a whole, I think the SEC is probably the strongest conference again, but not by much. The top 2-3 of the other power 5 conferences can certainly hang with the top of the SEC, and the bottom of the SEC is pretty shitty. I think where the strength comes from are teams like Arkansas, aTm, and Miss St that will have records like 7-5 or 8-4 that are pretty damn good. That said, I can see the SEC really struggling in some of these early season OOC games that will certainly lead to a 4 day boner for guys like Joel Klatt

The East is again seriously lagging behind the West. But I don't think you can just write in Tennessee as the winner just yet. I personally don't think Josh Dobbs is a very good QB. They definitely have some serious talent and experience on the team, but I'm going to have to see them beat someone that matters before I think they'll make it to Atlanta

I think both Arkansas and aTm are going to have a lot to say about who wins each division. Both teams get home games against the presumed favorites at some critical spots in the schedule. And Aggie plays at Tenn in the midst of Tenn's toughest stretch. There will be upsets

I think AU is going to be really bad this season. Doesn't mean much coming from an Alabama guy, but I just can't find much to get excited about for them this year. Particularly their schedule.

Speaking of, can anyone convince me that AU keeps Clemson within a TD? I haven't bet it because I haven't seen any line movement and I can't imagine anyone is betting on AU. I respect the HFA for AU, but I don't trust a Kevin Steele defense to stop any offense with a pulse, much less probably the most dynamic O in college this year and I don't see anyone on AU's offense that is a playmaker. Only way AU keeps it close is with special teams scores and Clemson turnovers IMO

Right now, I am picking Florida and Alabama to win their divisions, but the increasing chatter that we may be starting a true freshman at QB has me pretty skeptical about our chances at winning the conference

I think Derrick Henry winning the Heisman last season screwed Fournette, Cook, and possibly McCaffrey from winning it this year. Fournette will have to put up his usual numbers, but he will absolutely have to have a great game against Alabama to win. Not fair to him, but that's the way it is. McCaffrey will somehow have to do better than last year. He has a better shot than LF because he does more than run the ball, but he set his personal bar so high last season anything less will be seen as a minor failure by most. Also not fair, but that's the way it is. I could possibly see Cook getting there because he is fantastic, but I think all the ACC love will go to Watson.

I'm interested to see how the B1G shakes out, primarily tOSU vs Michigan. I feel like Urban Meyer is somewhat flying under the radar with all the Michigan love. I think both teams will be pretty damn good, but I still trust Meyer more than Harbaugh at this point.

If anyone can tell me how to handicap the PAC 12, I'd love to hear it. Doing the research for my PRs, I could make a case for about half the league to win the conference. Guess that means they have a lot of pretty good teams. Can't say for sure that one of them is nationally elite right now, but should be entertaining. Feel the same way about the Big 12, though Kansas and Iowa St are 2 of the weakest P5 teams IMO

Excited to get this season kicked off. Wanted to get this up early since I will be on vacation at the end of next week. Will post plays for sure, but may not be around a lot to discuss. Good luck to everyone this season
 
If you don't mind I'll throw my SEC PR lines in here each week as well. I'm also just starting down this path so maybe the comparisons will be useful, or maybe everyone can laugh at both of us. Previously I've used several published ratings and did some math to try to find value, but I'm hoping having my own will lead to more consistency.


Vanderbilt (-9) vs SCAR
Tennessee (-23) vs App St
Mizzou (+9.5) @ WVU
Miss St (-30.5) vs USA
Kentucky (-8.5) vs S. Miss
Arky (-22) vs La tech
FLorida (-31) vs UMASS
AU (+10) vs Clemson
aTm (-5.5) vs UCLA
LSU (-10.5) vs Wisconsin
UGA (-3.5) vs UNC
Alabama (-7.5) vs USC
Ole Miss (+6) vs FSU
 
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Just throwing this stat out there for thought for Appy St / Tenny gm

Since upsetting Michigan, Appalachian State has lost 41-13 to LSU (2008), 48-10 to Florida (2010), 66-13 to Virginia Tech (2011), 45-9 to Georgia (2013), 52-14 to Michigan (2014), 41-10 to Clemson (2015). That's an average margin of 41.9 to 11.7 to Power 5 teams

I would also like to get your thoughts on Tenny/ Appy St. & Ole Miss/FSU, if you get a chance.
 
ProV1Colt said:
Just throwing this stat out there for thought for Appy St / Tenny gm

Since upsetting Michigan, Appalachian State has lost 41-13 to LSU (2008), 48-10 to Florida (2010), 66-13 to Virginia Tech (2011), 45-9 to Georgia (2013), 52-14 to Michigan (2014), 41-10 to Clemson (2015). That's an average margin of 41.9 to 11.7 to Power 5 teams

I would also like to get your thoughts on Tenny/ Appy St. & Ole Miss/FSU, if you get a chance.[/QUOTE

That IS interesting info. Appreciate your digging this one out and posting it.
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love the weekly thread GPS

you and MOT have interesting takes on Tenny v Appy.......


Oh and if we don't beat yall this year, something will die
 
twinkie13 said:
Oh and if we don't beat yall this year, something will die
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Hopefully it's your avatar.

Why in the holy hell do you have 2 guys in their underwear as you avatar? You switch hitting these days Twinkie?
 
I'm taking a wait and see on Tennessee and I think gps has already adjusted them downward, or just had them lower initially anyway, from what many expect.

We also differ on Vandy - S Carolina and I suspect it is on my end as I'm pretty low on Muschamp/Carolina.

I'm probably too high on Kentucky. I think they'll be better but may have made too much of an adjustment. I also dropped Southern Miss slightly.

I may also be a little higher on A&M than everyone not named pressitup.
 
I'll be on the Ags in game one.
Think Fla wins the east, also.
I want a total for the 1st qtr of tenny/appy to appear.
I haven't looked at LaTech, but think Arky could be some good unders and need to look at that game. They have 9 returning on pigs D?
Will definitely lurk the 4th qtrs of Arky/tenny again as they were solid last year.
Got a ton more research to do.

Enjoy the thread.
SECSECSEC
 
ProV1Colt said:
Just throwing this stat out there for thought for Appy St / Tenny gm

Since upsetting Michigan, Appalachian State has lost 41-13 to LSU (2008), 48-10 to Florida (2010), 66-13 to Virginia Tech (2011), 45-9 to Georgia (2013), 52-14 to Michigan (2014), 41-10 to Clemson (2015). That's an average margin of 41.9 to 11.7 to Power 5 teams

I would also like to get your thoughts on Tenny/ Appy St. & Ole Miss/FSU, if you get a chance.
Click to expand...

App St was FCS until 2013 so I think that's part of it. I think you can also explain the beatdown received by Michigan (revenge lol) and Clemson, who was a national championship caliber team last year. I probably have App St rated too high. I feel pretty good on my Tenn ranking at this time. But I do think Tenn is a little overrated and there's a slight lookahead factor for the game in Bristol in week 2. Tenn has bigger fish to fry so I can't see Jones trying to run up the score in this one. Would have loved to get 21 or better, but I think the line goes down if anything. But I'm pretty terrible at predicting line moves.

Ole Miss is a gut feeling play for me. I was pretty certain all summer I was going to load up on FSU, but something about all the smoke around Ole Miss and FSU starting a freshman QB made me think that Ole Miss keeps this close or wins outright. I've seen AU in 2010 and FSU in 2013 use all the negative thoughts from outside the program galvanize the team, and I suspect it may be the case here. I do think FSU is the better team, and I think there will a significant gap later this season, but Ole Miss doesn't lack for talent and they have the better QB, for right now at least.
 
M.O.T said:
If you don't mind I'll throw my SEC PR lines in here each week as well. I'm also just starting down this path so maybe the comparisons will be useful, or maybe everyone can laugh at both of us. Previously I've used several published ratings and did some math to try to find value, but I'm hoping having my own will lead to more consistency.


Vanderbilt (-9) vs SCAR
Tennessee (-23) vs App St
Mizzou (+9.5) @ WVU
Miss St (-30.5) vs USA
Kentucky (-8.5) vs S. Miss
Arky (-22) vs La tech
FLorida (-31) vs UMASS
AU (+10) vs Clemson
aTm (-5.5) vs UCLA
LSU (-10.5) vs Wisconsin
UGA (-3.5) vs UNC
Alabama (-7.5) vs USC
Ole Miss (+6) vs FSU
Click to expand...

Yes by all means post them here. I know I have some biases when it comes to certain teams so I welcome a different slant. It should make us both better
 
M.O.T said:
I'm taking a wait and see on Tennessee and I think gps has already adjusted them downward, or just had them lower initially anyway, from what many expect.

We also differ on Vandy - S Carolina and I suspect it is on my end as I'm pretty low on Muschamp/Carolina.

I'm probably too high on Kentucky. I think they'll be better but may have made too much of an adjustment. I also dropped Southern Miss slightly.

I may also be a little higher on A&M than everyone not named pressitup.
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Yeah I'm probably lower on Tenny than most, but it's not like I have them 25th or anything. Maybe too high on App St. I struggle making accurate #s once I get past the top 50-60 teams or so, especially if they aren't power 5 teams. I think UK and SCAR are in for tough years. aTm is intriguing, but I'm not ready to trust them yet
 
As a whole, I think the SEC is probably the strongest conference again, but not by much. The top 2-3 of the other power 5 conferences can certainly hang with the top of the SEC, and the bottom of the SEC is pretty shitty. I think where the strength comes from are teams like Arkansas, aTm, and Miss St that will have records like 7-5 or 8-4 that are pretty damn good.
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The West is clearly a lot better than any other conference or division, but the East is comparable to the worst of the other divisions/conferences among the power 5. Overall, that adds up to the SEC still being the best conference in the land. That's just a fact, and you're right about teams like Arkansas sort of flying under the radar because of the depth of the West and all the tough games they must play.

I also agree with your take on Tennessee.
 
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Hey fellas. Seasons greetings.

Few futures I took:

Tennessee U 9.5 wins
Miss St O 6.5 wins
Lamar Jackson Heisman 60/1

Week 1 I took a few SEC games:

App St +21.5
Missouri +10
Missouri/WVU Under 51
USC/Bama Under 54
FSU/OM Under 57

I'll look to go under on a few TT, prob. USC (22?) WVU (30?), Wisky (17.5?), K State (17.5?) I'll look to short points somehow in the App St/UT game as well, I think. I have a bet with a friend that Chubb will rush for over 149.5 against UNC (everytime I doubt myself I look at the Baylor/UNC box score again)

Really interesting year in the SEC. I think the Vols will be a really good team I'm just not quite ready to ordain them and not sure how they will respond mentally being pegged as a contender for first time since their freshman were in kindergarten. The thing is they may win the division by default. Most realistic UGA fans I talk to (You have to leave the state to find them) wouldn't be surprised with a 7 or 8 win team this year. Here's the reality - 13 kids from their 2013 class of I believe 31 are contributors and of their most recent class 18 are in the two deep **that doesn't even include QB Eason as he would technically be considered in the 3 deep. They have a real mess of depth and learning new systems on both sides so I suppose in part that just sets up well for the UT hype. In a way Florida could mirror an early Saban-McElwain Alabama team with good enough offense and elite defense. The problem for UF is I don't know how Del Rio rates to pan out - he ends up playing like he did in their spring game and to me they are the favorite to win the East. I think Mizzou should be better this year if they can get ANY offense mustered they will be a tough out just because of their defense. Vandy with a real nice defense as well and abysmal offense. I think we could see some especially ugly grinders in the East this season which is music to an under/dog slanted guy like myself. I don't have anything positive to say about UK or USCe other than we could get some of those aforementioned ugly grinders from Muschamp.

The west I think is clearly Bama/LSU, per usual. I guess the one caveat would be that I don't see OM making the type of noise they have past few years this year. The tough games on the front end with the new OL, a run game I don't trust entirely and the depth that will haunt them on the back stretch of the year I think pretty much keep them out of contention although Kelly is so dynamic he may go Marshawn Lynch a game or two and put the whole team on his back. That's another thing, I'm done questioning Kelly, it cost me too much last year when I wanted to fight how good he was but he is awesome and I hope I don't underestimate that again. Arkansas is intriguing again. They look to me again to be a great over team (seems like one of very few at least heading into season) and my love for their OC goes deep. I don't know enough about their personnel to know how deep they are (if anyone is I would love to hear) but I could see that back half the schedule being where they could get done in which is actually a conundrum considering how good they have been late in year and not some much in beginning.. Miss St I have the future on and expect them to do well but I also took that bet before I've gotten to truly appreciate the fullness of Prescott's glory now that he is owning the NFL. I do like the options they have behind him but there certainly has to be a bigger level of dropoff than I initially calculated. If they get good QB play I think this team is fully capable of winning 9 games. I don't really know what to make of aTm just yet I'm gonna reserve judgement there I can't get a pulse on them (I did have a friend give me aTm +10 against UT as a future which I'm quite happy with). If i'm Auburn I'm gonna just roll the dice with Franklin even though I don't think he is good. Why? Because I know that White and Johnson aren't good, so go with the unknown quantity that has the legs simialr to what have made the Gus Bus roll in the past. They have a nice DL also. I love the LSU DC hire I think it's going to be incredible as a fan to watch him orchestrate those guys. Seems like i'm singing the same tune as many others and the usual for LSU, get above average QB play against Alabama and the other elite teams you play and you will be in the title game. Don't and you won't - great skill group though - can't wait to see the WR duo in the pros and see what theyre capable of. Bama I'll save my thoughts for later and just chime in as we go
 
ProV1Colt said:
Just throwing this stat out there for thought for Appy St / Tenny gm

Since upsetting Michigan, Appalachian State has lost 41-13 to LSU (2008), 48-10 to Florida (2010), 66-13 to Virginia Tech (2011), 45-9 to Georgia (2013), 52-14 to Michigan (2014), 41-10 to Clemson (2015). That's an average margin of 41.9 to 11.7 to Power 5 teams
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Thanks for bringing this up. It's certainly food for thought.

As GPS mentioned, ASU was FCS through 2013. As for LSU in 2008, LSU had to be on upset alert after what ASU did in Ann Arbor the previous year. In 2010. UF was off an embarrassing 36-14 home loss to USC. In 2011, VPI was off a bad 40-17 loss in their bowl game, and ASU was 2 TDs worse than in 2007. In 2013, Appalachian State was 3 TDs+ worse than in 2007. In 2014, Michigan had the motivation of avenging the embarrassing loss of seven years before, and they were also off a bad bowl loss. A lot to prove. Last year, ASU held Clemson to its second-lowest yardage total of the season (392 yards at 5.2 yards per play), but threw some bad picks in the 1H that got them in big trouble.
 
gps_3 said:
2016: 0-0-0


Week 1:

Louisville -39'
Vanderbilt -3'
Appalachian St +20'
Toledo +3'
Southern Miss +6'
LSU -9' (2U)
Houston +10/10' (2U total)
Boise -20'
Texas +4'
Ole Miss +4
Boston College +3'


Season bets:

JT Barrett to win Heisman +1500
Miss St ov 6' wins
USC ov 7' wins
Utah ov 7' wins
Kentucky un 4' wins
Arkansas ov 7' wins
Click to expand...

With you on many and not against you on any. Good luck.
 
BOL this year bammers

Will be higher it appears than most on MSU so hope those futures come in for ya, and Arky will get plenty of my attention
 
gps_3 said:
I think AU is going to be really bad this season.

Speaking of, can anyone convince me that AU keeps Clemson within a TD? I haven't bet it because I haven't seen any line movement and I can't imagine anyone is betting on AU. I respect the HFA for AU, but I don't trust a Kevin Steele defense to stop any offense with a pulse, much less probably the most dynamic O in college this year and I don't see anyone on AU's offense that is a playmaker. Only way AU keeps it close is with special teams scores and Clemson turnovers IMO

Right now, I am picking Florida and Alabama to win their divisions, but the increasing chatter that we may be starting a true freshman at QB has me pretty skeptical about our chances at winning the conference
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I completely agree on Auburn. I see zero continuity on that team heading into their matchup against Clemson.

I think Auburn has very little shot to keep the game within two touchdowns. Clemson is my #1 play of week 1.

I think the exact opposite. I think Jalen Hurts is the only shot Alabama has of repeating as national champs. I think they have almost no shot with Bateman or Barnett under center. I am very confident in saying that Hurts will burn his redshirt, and will absolutely play this season. The question is when and how much? In as much as Hurts seems to be the best QB on the roster, I'm in the camp of starting him from day 1.

I should note that their are other considerations that may delay Hurts' collegiate debut, but it will happen at some point this season.
 
clowncar said:
Great thread.

I know it isn't the SEC but why Toledo?
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Mainly a PR play. I have Toledo favored, despite playing in Jonesboro. I know the previous year result doesn't always mean a whole lot, but Toledo won pretty handily last year with significant edges in first downs, yards, TOP, pretty much everything. I know Ark St had 5 turnovers so that obviously factored in to the lopsided stats, but I think Toledo is the better team. I'm a volume bettor, so I like placing 1 unit bets on some games that I may not follow the teams as much, but have a PR discrepancy
 
Good luck this season. As far as the Hurts kid, I haven't seen a lot of him, but love what I have seen. A dual threat QB at bama would be something to see. He will be fun to watch.
 
Wanted to see if anyone could chime in on the following offensive lines if you are a fan of the team or just have knowledge of how they've looked in camp through your prep?

-Missouri
-Texas A&M
-Ole Miss
-Florida
 
Real quick thought to think over before the write up, the biggest upgrade for any team in the SEC is Floridas kicking game. Eddy pineiro will have the biggest impact change on this team.
 
CrimsonK said:
Wanted to see if anyone could chime in on the following offensive lines if you are a fan of the team or just have knowledge of how they've looked in camp through your prep?

-Missouri
-Texas A&M
-Ole Miss
-Florida
Click to expand...

Ags have two seniors at the tackles, that previously played other positions. The interior is soph, frosh, rsfrosh.

Here's the two deep. I think a couple are able to shave.

LT 65 Avery Gennesy, 6-5, 315, Sr-1L, Southaven, MS (Southaven/East Mississippi)
75 Koda Martin, 6-6, 305, So-1L, Manvel, TX (Manvel)
LG 76 Colton Prater, 6-4, 295, Fr-HS, Bossier City, LA (Airline)
77 Ryan McCollum, 6-5, 285, Fr-HS, Spring, TX (Klein Oak)
C 64 Erik McCoy, 6-4, 305, Fr-RS, Lufkin, TX (Lufkin)
55 Austin Anderson, 6-4, 297, Fr-HS, Mineola, TX (Mineola)
RG 70 Connor Lanfear, 6-6, 315, So-1L, Buda, TX (Buda)
78 Keaton Sutherland, 6-5, 310, So-1L, Flower Mound, TX (Marcus)
RT 72 Jermaine Eluemunor, 6-4, 325, Sr-1L, Denville, NJ (Morris Knolls/Lackawanna (PA))
50 Tank Davis, 6-4, 290, So-SQ, Garland, TX (Lakeview Centennial)
 
Really doesn't get any better than this thread. Several great cappers and knowledge in here week in week out.

Gl gps
 
I would man. Just don't have much time these days. Got some notes here and will start a thread this weekend hopefully some of you guys chime in.

Agree sec is best top to bottom and not even really close imo.
 
Here's what I wrote about UGA in the SEC Prediction thread. The main changes are that it appears Atkins will play and Chubb is 100% a go for UNC and will carry the ball a decent amount.

QB - Kirby is doing what he can to get Eason ready to be the starter. At the closed scrimmage this past Saturday they threw the kitchen sink at Eason to prepare him. They are doing everything they can to get him as close to ready as a true freshman can be to play day 1. Lambert is a statue and scared to death to make a mistake. He was sacked 6-7 times in the scrimmage. Ramsey just doesn't have it between the ears. He is too mistake prone.

RB - Chubb is a just an incredible specimen. He'll play vs UNC. How much like old Chubb is yet to be seen. Sony is closer to being able to play vs UNC as well after forearm surgery. He is ahead of schedule. If both can stay healthy there is no better 1-2 punch. Holyfield will get more carries than people expect and will be a productive back in the mix with them. Douglas or Herrien will get a few carries thrown their way from time-to-time to give those 3 a rest.

WR - Depth issues (reoccurring theme for UGA). Godwin is the #1 and will be a playmaker. There is talent there but inexperienced and young. I'd expect to see a lot of short passes to Isaiah McKenzie to get him in space with the ball in his hand. Reggie Davis is inconsistent and we are all waiting for it to click with him (he's a senior). Chigbu should be the breakout star at WR this year. Lots of young guys need to step up and produce.

OL - Sam Pittman will do great things moving forward for the OL. With that said, lots of shuffling still going on. No consistent 5 right now. Kublanow and Pyke have locked down the C and one OG spots but moving pieces at the other spots. It is not that there isn't talent it's just more of who will be the tackles and who will fall into the other OG spot. Once that is settled this should be a good to above average line. LT will be scary at first especially with the possibility of a true freshman QB behind center. Catalina is a graduate transfer from Rhode Island who could end being a real big surprise for us this year at LT. Wynn will most likely start there but may get bumped to OG once Catalina gets going.

TE - UGA's best position group. Several weapons here and expect to see 3 TEs at times on the field. They will be a mismatch nightmare and will be used to mask the lack of depth/talent at the WR position. Both freshman Nauta and Woerner will get playing time and be effective from day one.

DL - Back to the depth issues. Scariest part of the team. We lack talent and depth. Starting DL is solid but after that it is up to freshman and average players. You don't win games in the SEC without talent here. Some folk are really going to have to step up. This is my biggest concern with this team. Atkins (starting DT) is injured with a hyper-extended knee and I'm concerned he will not play vs UNC. Trent Thompson will become an All-SEC player this year.

ILB - ILBs are young but talented and again will struggle with depth. Roquan Smith and Natrez Patrick are extremely talented but young and need to grow up quickly. It hurts losing Kimbrough last week as he was 1st man off the bench. Reggie Carter will be the breakout star at ILB for UGA. He'll be one of those solid contributors that racks up tackles.

OLB - Bellamy and Carter will be a great 1-2 punch rushing the QB. D'Andre Walker will be the breakout star. He will impress people with his talent and ability to get to the QB. There is depth here but very inexperienced. UGA will need to rely on the OLBs to make up for the lack of pass rush generated by the DL.

DB - Strongest part of the D. UGA had one of the top passing D's in the country last year statistically. The addition of Maurice Smith from Bama sures up the Nickel spot. Mecole Hardman will be the breakout star (true freshman) and will play early and often. The hope is the coverage of the DBs can help the DL out in getting to the QB.
Kicker - I stand corrected. This is the scariest part of the team. FGs are going to be an adventure this year. No sure fire #1. And not because there is competition but because there really isn't anyone. We will most likely rely on a true freshman (Blakenship) which scares the crap out of me.

Punter - Will most likely be Brice Ramsey (back-up QB) again. He was solid last year and has a possible career at the next level as a punter.

Overall this is a 1st year head coach with depth issues on the team. Richt really struggled at creating depth and filling up scholarships. He just would not over sign and we continue to pay for it. Don't expect that to happen with Kirby. There is a lot of positive momentum with UGA right now and recruiting is going great. I like the coaches Kirby brought on as well.

The question mark at QB and the most likely outcome of a true freshman QB will cost us a game or two. The DL will create problems for us on defense and any injuries we suffer on either side of the ball can create a huge issue due to depth. This is an 8-4, 9-3 team with the a 7-5 or 10-2 season possible if certain things happen. Gun to my head 9-3 and I pick that over 8-4 solely because I am a fan.

UNC Game:

This game could go either way. No chance I would play this one. UGA fans I know are over confident for 3 reasons:

1. They look at UNC as a basketball program and don't realize what Fedora has done.
2. They keep pointing to Marquise Williams being gone. However, Trubisky will end up being more consistent than Williams. The question is can he do it game one.
3. They seem to only think UNC played 2 games last year. SoCar and Baylor. They seem to forget that this team hung around with the eventually #2 team Clemson in the ACC Title game. Bowl games are bowl games and UNC had every opportunity to win that SoCar game.

That UNC OL and Hood will get yards on our DL. I expect their D to be better too with Chizik in year two.

Eason starting as a true frosh scares me. I don't care how good you will be you will struggle at first. Look at Stafford's first season in 2006. He really struggled early on but came on strong to close out the season (beat #5 AU at the time at AU). If Chubb and Sony are healthy than I think we can outscore them with our run game. Either way we have several question marks and I can't lay 3 points on us (Lost my ass in that early season game vs Boise St a few years back in The Dome).

Looks more and more like Sony won't play. He hasn't been cleared for contact yet and we are 9 days away. Holyfield also has a sprained ankle and hasn't practiced since Saturday (just riding a stationary bike).
 
UGA03 said:
Sean White was named starter tonight.
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Yup. As I have I have posted previously, White is the only competent QB on the Auburn roster. As a pro-style passer he's not capable of running the Malzahn offense which is predicated upon the QB being a legitimate threat in the running game. And at 6 foot 200 lbs, White doesn't fit the bill. Malzahn badly wanted, and badly needed John Franklin to be the guy, but Franklin is pretty much not capable of throwing a forward pass, or hanging unto the football. I'm sure we'll see him at some point against Clemson. It'll be interesting to see what they do with him. But if I'm Clemson, and I see Franklin coming into the game, I'd be playing all run.
 
Alright time for the Florida preview.

QB - It really sucks what happened with Grier last year. You could see his potential really start to blossom in the first 4 games last year. That RS Freshman starting to get used to everything. Then that Ole Miss game he played like a great QB. Everyone looks at Floridas last 3 games of the season and sees complete and utter dog shit. But the team was really coming on early in the season and molding well. Then Grier got suspended and Treon "I suck at everything in life especially throwing a fucking football and reading defenses" Harris came in and suck dog dick.

Enter Luke Del Rio. Everyone always says he was a walk on which is true but he had scholarships. He was committed to Okla State but decided to walk on at Alabama. Went to Oregon State and sat behind Mannion and then they got a spread coach and thats not him. I am not here to name the savior of god but he can't be worse than Treon so that already is an upgrade. If he plays the way he did in the spring game and way he is in practice I am going to be very comfortable with him being back there. He might never be a heisman hopeful but I don't see him losing many games with his poor QB play

RB - Lost Kelvin Taylor. Cronkrite impressed me last year and Scarlett as well. Neither are real home run hitters. Cronkite averaged around 3.8 YPC and Scarlett 5.3 YPC as true freshman last year. 2 solid RBs will really help.

WR - Callaway is a straight stud. We all learned that last year. Brandon Powell is that Homerun hitter in the slot. Other than that a lot of unknowns. Fulwood/Worton/Hammond/Massey all real unknowns. All came in as high recruits but nothing productive so far.

TE - Lost the steady Jake McGee unfortunately. Was really a big time target last year for us. Goolsby showed a lot of flashes of brilliance. Reminded me of Hernandez out there. Now he will be the #1 the question is can he go from being unknown to the starter.

OL - We were set to return 4 starters from last years OL but Riles tore his ACL recently. The left side of Sharpe/Ivey will be great. Dillard at C is not THE greatest but he is manageable. The right side is where the questions are. They moved backup center, Tyler Jordan who is a true Sophomore to the guard to replace Riles. Also true sophomore Fred Johnson will be on the RT. He started 2 games last year. 6-6 305 guy. If Riles was there, I would feel real conformable with the OL. The right side now has some major questions.

K - I said earlier in this thread, the biggest upgrade of any position on any SEC team is this right here. Last year the combination of kickers was 7-17 on FG attempts 36-41 on XP attempts. It was a complete disaster. We were having to go for it on the 20 yard line because we couldnt kick. Now we got Pineiro. This kid can flat out kick the living shit out of the ball. He hit a 52 and a 56 yarder with ease in the spring game. Hes known for hitting a 77 yarder on Youtube. Last year against FSU it was 0-0 near the end of the 1st quarter. 4th and 2 on the 20 yard line and we went for it because of no kicker. Stuff like that changes the mental aspect of the game for the players.

DL - Maybe the most valuable loss for the team is losing Bullard. That man had such a great first step and caused so much fucking havoc for the OL. He never had the most ridiculous stats but the havoc he caused basically set up for the other guys to have free hits. We bring back Cox & Ivie who were starters. Both are above average players. Caleb Brantley is the name to watch for. Was a stud HS player and had a big fucking head coming to school. He started to show his dominance late last year and now hes starting and ready to go.

LB - Jarrad Davis is going to be a first round draft pick this year. Choppa Dan which is McMillian nickname is a psychotic dude. Anzalone is a solid MLB who just keeps getting injured. All in all this core of the defense is great. The run defense with the front 4 and these guys are going to be ridiculous.

Secondary - Losing VH3 and Neal are also going to be big. VH3 imo was the best DB I have personally seen in the college level. The athletic ability to go along with the smarts from growing up his whole life in football was unreal to watch. Now everyone says Tabor is better and going to be a Top 10 pick as well. Quincy was ahead of Tabor starting last year and now he will be on the other side. Pretty good CB but nothing to write home about. Maye is back. Now Nick Washington gets to show his skills. Has all the potential but was behind Neal for the last couple years.

P - Townsend is back and will be good


Now all in all this team is better than they were last year. I think the offense has taken 3 steps forward and the defense may take a small step back. I think you are looking at 10-2 type of team here. 3 cupcakes to start the season is nice to get ready for that big showdown in Knoxville.
 
captjohn67 said:
Good luck this season. As far as the Hurts kid, I haven't seen a lot of him, but love what I have seen. A dual threat QB at bama would be something to see. He will be fun to watch.
Click to expand...

He's a beast!

[video=youtube;U3MYx64Ytkc]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3MYx64Ytkc[/video]
 
CrimsonK said:
Wanted to see if anyone could chime in on the following offensive lines if you are a fan of the team or just have knowledge of how they've looked in camp through your prep?

-Missouri
-Texas A&M
-Ole Miss
-Florida
Click to expand...


OM's biggest concern on O is at LT. I think they're going to take a committee approach, but I expect a former guard to get the start against FSU. He's athletic, but he's got a guard's body so I'm guessing that Freeze will give him help in the form of a TE or use a RB to chip all day. I think Greg Little takes over by midseason, but he's had a tough time adjusting to the speed of college DEs. I also think there's a decent chance that rather than relying on Kelly as much as expected, OM tests FSU on the ground early given OM's issues at LT. OM lost RB Jordan Wilkins because apparently his academic adviser miscalculated his hours. That's obviously not ideal, but I doubt that his absence will have a major impact. There are plenty of capable guys at RB. That's not say that Kelly won't take some shots downfield. He's too good to handcuff, but if they can't protect him, then Freeze is going to have to find other ways to move the ball.
 
Thanks guys for the insight on your teams that was super helpful. I added a few other futures and forgot to post one other SEC week 1 game:

UNC/UGA O54

Some futures:

Iowa State O 3.5 wins
Georgia Southern O 7.5
Florida +10/Tennessee
Auburn/Miss St PICK
Boise to win MWC +150
Boise to win natl title +16500
Florida to win SEC East +470
Louisville to win ACC +1025

One other thing to mention, I occasionally get some pretty good UGA info and while it has been been recently pretty widely reported, Chubb will indeed be full go against UNC and he said to expect him to get the first carry. That's even better news given Holyfield's ankle tweak and Sony still unlikely to significantly contribute in the opener.
 
UGA coaches met with the QBs individually last night and advised them Eason is the starter as of right now. He can still lose it this week (Lambert was told to be ready if Eason struggles this week) but as of right now the true frosh is the man.
 
HUNT said:
I would man. Just don't have much time these days. Got some notes here and will start a thread this weekend hopefully some of you guys chime in.

Agree sec is best top to bottom and not even really close imo.
Click to expand...


Agree this year. ACC not far behind, then BIG........PAC is pretty weak it seems. Big12 has a few good teams....maybe sneaky good.

Ohio St just lost so much talent from a team that was real talented....UM is like 2 years away from being on some real shit, like they should be. Jimmy will get em back


And Sparty just does their thing....that guy is great(Dantoni)...Iowa will be Iowa.

I really really wanny see Neby get back to some shit and make it fun.....as well as Pedo St
 
UGA03 said:
UGA coaches met with the QBs individually last night and advised them Eason is the starter as of right now. He can still lose it this week (Lambert was told to be ready if Eason struggles this week) but as of right now the true frosh is the man.
Click to expand...
:shake2:
 
Does anybody see anything positive in South Carolina this season? I've been looking at them a good bit and can't really seem to find anything that I like about them. I mean, they should have some good athletes they have recruited top 25 but that hasn't changed from last year and they were a really bad team. I'm just not sure where I see much improvement. Coaching stability, you could speculate, I guess..? They get back nothing skill wise and I don't think they have a good enough QB that has proven they can bring along some of the new guys. Then the OL has very little experience to boot. Defensively they gave up 5 ypc ly and lose a ton on the front and back end of the defense. I guess if they had to rely on the defense at times I could give a Muschamp team the benefit of the doubt even as bad as they were last year but I tend to wonder if they are going to emulate a Mizzou and Vandy offense of last season with a poor mans version of those defenses and they just get put in too many bad spots? I went ahead and added them Under 5 on season wins and will be backing them again Thursday. I see it at 2 toss ups (ECU and UK), 2 pretty certain wins (UMass and Western Carolina) and an opening game loss could pave the way for a demoralized team and a 1-5 or 0-6 start still having dates with UF, UT and Clemson.
 
CrimsonK said:
Does anybody see anything positive in South Carolina this season? I've been looking at them a good bit and can't really seem to find anything that I like about them. I mean, they should have some good athletes they have recruited top 25 but that hasn't changed from last year and they were a really bad team. I'm just not sure where I see much improvement. Coaching stability, you could speculate, I guess..? They get back nothing skill wise and I don't think they have a good enough QB that has proven they can bring along some of the new guys. Then the OL has very little experience to boot. Defensively they gave up 5 ypc ly and lose a ton on the front and back end of the defense. I guess if they had to rely on the defense at times I could give a Muschamp team the benefit of the doubt even as bad as they were last year but I tend to wonder if they are going to emulate a Mizzou and Vandy offense of last season with a poor mans version of those defenses and they just get put in too many bad spots? I went ahead and added them Under 5 on season wins and will be backing them again Thursday. I see it at 2 toss ups (ECU and UK), 2 pretty certain wins (UMass and Western Carolina) and an opening game loss could pave the way for a demoralized team and a 1-5 or 0-6 start still having dates with UF, UT and Clemson.
Click to expand...

I agree. I loved Vandy when dogged by a field goal, but at this point I refuse to budge on some basic moral principals, such as never lay points with Vandy in a conference game. I suppose I probably should, but I think I'll just maintain a spectator role in this one - and I will be intently spectating.

That said, I agree on your assessment of USC(e). They look like a pretty sad football team. It'll be interesting to see what they look like against Vandy.
 
I didn't realize they opened as a dog that would have been nice to have. I would be shocked if Orth gets the nod to start this week but most of what I can gather seems to point towards him being the guy but McIlwain getting reps also. I'm of the mind that if it appears at all that McIlwain is physically ready and he doesn't have a fragile psyche then throw him in there and give him a full season and play for 2017 and 2018 when there is a chance they could be back in the pack. Muschamp is a hard one to figure out and it seems he has been super tight lipped about personnel and game plan since taking the job
 
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