gps_3 Championship Week

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
2015: 144-101-3

Week 13: 8-12

Locked In:

Southern Miss +7'
USC/Stanford OV 58'
UNC/Clemson OV 67'
Iowa +3'
Houston -6



Futures:

Conference title:

OU to win Big12: +400
Mich St to win B1G: +625
ASU to win Pac12: +700
UGA to win SEC: +450
LSU to win SEC: +900

Season win totals:

tOSU U 11' -120 (11-1)
AU U 8' +130 (5-5)
TCU U 10 +115 (10-2)
UGA O 9 -140 (9-3)
Ole Miss O 8' -120 (9-3)
Oklahoma O 8' -140 (10-1)
UCLA U 9 -125 (8-3)
Wisconsin O 9' -115 (9-3)
 
Last edited:
Losing week, but most of my futures cashing made it actually a plus week money wise.


SEC Championship Game (my PR line):

Alabama vs Florida (+15')


Will hopefully be around to discuss more this week, been dealing a few health issues, hope they are past me. Hope to have some good discussion this week
 
Alabama made it through an 8 game conference schedule without our opponents committing a single holding penalty. Unbelievable
 
Looks like you guys opened up at -12 and quickly got bet up to -17 (5 minutes). Kudos to those that were quick enough to get the 12. Still think this line is 3 point low. Therefore, will be jumping Bama ASAP. Obviously I watched the FSU/UF game in its entirety. The only way they keep it in this number is by fluke or Nick taking it easy on McIlwain. We know how much he adored MAC in his time at AL.
 
I think that to bet on UF, you are counting on UF keeping Alabama under 17 points, or UF scoring over 10.
 
gps_3 said:
I think that to bet on UF, you are counting on UF keeping Alabama under 17 points, or UF scoring over 10.
Click to expand...
I just don't see Fla scoring more than 10 in this one. Their offense is just not going to get it done. I think my inclination here is that maybe under is the best way to go.
 
Timh said:
I just don't see Fla scoring more than 10 in this one. Their offense is just not going to get it done. I think my inclination here is that maybe under is the best way to go.
Click to expand...

I have bet game and opponent team under nearly every week. Think both have cashed every game since Ole Miss game, excluding the Charleston-Southern game which went over
 
Yep^

As it stands, 28-11 is forecast. I would prob prefer a UF TT under rather than full game simply because the UF offense is a liability for Bama on NOT and or plays that lead to junk. Their best weapon is a RB, which should spell major trouble for any team, esp one that just lines up and does pro-style stuff. Taylor's 4.1 YPC and Harris' ineptitude at passing just spell major trouble. Best thing the UF offense has going for them is that Taylor doesn't fumble. That's all I got for a highlight of their offensive profile..
 
With side and total in consonance, I would think Fla team total would be in that 11.5 or 12 range so maybe they move it up to 13. Might not be a bad play at all at 13 under.
 
At 13, hard to imagine there being a better angle on the game, IMO. Could be some propportunities like last game as well. Will be interesting to see if we can get on a read on whether VHIII will shadow Ridley. Those catch props can be juicy especially if Kiffin keeps dialing up the Tavon Austin/Steadman Bailey motion touch pass. I remember in their bowl game years ago one of those guys caught 7 or 8 of those in one single game. Those are money if you can pick up on team's tendencies cause it's like a run but counts as a pass in the books.
 
I share the thoughts of many -- I don't see Florida scoring a TD. And I see Bama forcing a turnover or two vs. this QB. 28-6 or 28-3 seems about right.
 
gps_3 said:
Alabama made it through an 8 game conference schedule without our opponents committing a single holding penalty. Unbelievable
Click to expand...

And they say sportsmanship is dead. :cigarguy:

Just wondering -- did Bama decline any holding penalties?
 
booksbestfriend said:
Looks like you guys opened up at -12 and quickly got bet up to -17 (5 minutes). Kudos to those that were quick enough to get the 12. Still think this line is 3 point low. Therefore, will be jumping Bama ASAP. Obviously I watched the FSU/UF game in its entirety. The only way they keep it in this number is by fluke or Nick taking it easy on McIlwain. We know how much he adored MAC in his time at AL.
Click to expand...

And we know that he took it easy when CSU came to T-Town, but surely this is different.
 
M.W. said:
And they say sportsmanship is dead. :cigarguy:

Just wondering -- did Bama decline any holding penalties?
Click to expand...

There was one we declined against LSU. Other than that, don't think one was called
 
I'm not sure how to look that up, I've just heard that for years and potentially perpetuated the myth
 
Adding:

Southern Miss +7'
USC/Stanford OV 58'
UNC/Clemson OV 67'
Iowa +3'
Houston -6
 
Alabama just last week was -14 or so @Auburn and idt really should have covered that.. Now -17, and going up, against Florida, would basically put Florida as a dog to Auburn on a neutral field this week.. I don't buy it.. think the humiliation of last week to their main rival has Florida looking at this as season defining.. and frankly opinion on Florida couldn't be any lower.. feeling on Alabama is as high as usual.. JMO
 
53percent said:
Alabama just last week was -14 or so @Auburn and idt really should have covered that.. Now -17, and going up, against Florida, would basically put Florida as a dog to Auburn on a neutral field this week.. I don't buy it.. think the humiliation of last week to their main rival has Florida looking at this as season defining.. and frankly opinion on Florida couldn't be any lower.. feeling on Alabama is as high as usual.. JMO
Click to expand...

Agree to a point, but Alabama did nearly double up AU in yards and AU's only TD was on a flukish type play. Score could have easily been something like 35-6 if some of those chip shot FGs were TDs instead. But I think the main issue is Florida's offense. Can they score 10+? I think it's reasonable to think that Alabama can get to at least 20. UF's defense is really good, but can they hold up if they have to be on the field for 75+ plays?
 
gps_3 said:
Agree to a point, but Alabama did nearly double up AU in yards and AU's only TD was on a flukish type play. Score could have easily been something like 35-6 if some of those chip shot FGs were TDs instead. But I think the main issue is Florida's offense. Can they score 10+? I think it's reasonable to think that Alabama can get to at least 20. UF's defense is really good, but can they hold up if they have to be on the field for 75+ plays?
Click to expand...
Well, I hope so because I have 17.5 lol
 
I know it's not his style, but if you're McElwain, how much longer can you watch Treon drop back in the pocket and miss badly on throws instead of playing more to his athleticism and running ability? Treon has a live arm and receivers are getting open, but his poor decision-making and inaccuracy plagues this offense every week. Like gps said, it's going to be tough for any defense to be on the field for 75+ plays ... and Treon as the trigger man doesn't bode well for the field position battle. Running game has been showing signs of life, but you aint runnin on Bama. I don't know, maybe Mac puts together a genius gameplan (Robinson reinstated), but this one has a 31-3 type of score written all over it in my eyes.

'Grats on another strong season, gps. GL
 
gps_3 said:
Alabama made it through an 8 game conference schedule without our opponents committing a single holding penalty. Unbelievable
Click to expand...

Nebraska did this with Suh. easy to see why offenses rule the day so much when they allow the kind of holding that goes on virtually every play.
 
53percent said:
Alabama just last week was -14 or so @Auburn and idt really should have covered that.. Now -17, and going up, against Florida, would basically put Florida as a dog to Auburn on a neutral field this week.. I don't buy it.. think the humiliation of last week to their main rival has Florida looking at this as season defining.. and frankly opinion on Florida couldn't be any lower.. feeling on Alabama is as high as usual.. JMO
Click to expand...

Ya every time I think about the game from a transitive standpoint it's like, ya Florida is no brainier to play here. But once I really dig into what are the realistic expectations of game play I have a lot more hesitation. That being said, UF getting 18 now is the only side I could take here.

Agree with you, Grind, on Mac really needing to let Treon go Willie Beamen but who knows if he will or won't. I think he'll have some tricks up his sleeve and lean towards him just letting him use his athleticism.
 
Anyone think Stanford blasts USC?

Anyone on under in Iowa/Sparty?

When UNC beats clemson, does UNC get in if Stanford beats USC soundly?
 
CrimsonK said:
Anyone think Stanford blasts USC?

Anyone on under in Iowa/Sparty?

When UNC beats clemson, does UNC get in if Stanford beats USC soundly?
Click to expand...
No thank you on Stanford, go USC SU.
Agree Under Sparty/Iowa
If UNC wins they will unfortunately get screwed and tOSU or Stanford with a win will be in.
 
Play2win said:
No thank you on Stanford, go USC SU.
Agree Under Sparty/Iowa
If UNC wins they will unfortunately get screwed and tOSU or Stanford with a win will be in.
Click to expand...

What are you seeing there? Probably gonna be a Big 12 style shootout and Stanford seems to me to be the far better equipped team to handle that. Depth issues have just taken their toll on USC, imo. I'm really thinking Stanford by a couple TD

I think tOSU is all but out of things no matter what happens unless maybe Florida and USC both win.
 
Stanford is just so undeserving of a spot. I have to cheer for them against USC because you have smart kids who get it vs. dumb kids who do not ..... but I am truly hoping a team with two losses doesn't get in there ... just a horrible precedent.
 
clowncar said:
Stanford is just so undeserving of a spot. I have to cheer for them against USC because you have smart kids who get it vs. dumb kids who do not ..... but I am truly hoping a team with two losses doesn't get in there ... just a horrible precedent.
Click to expand...

It's coming eventually
 
Few other looks:

Mike Thomas (Southern Miss) OVER 102 receiving yards -115
Treon Harris (Florida) passing yards UNDER 173 -145
Derrick Henry (Alabama) OVER 1 TD -140
Ardarius Stewart (Alabama) OVER 4 catches +105
Connor Cook (Michigan State) OVER 261 passing yards -115
 
Treon is not even a good runner guys. He's decent but he can't read an zone read, cant think fast enough to pull it down and run so it becomes useless. ALl year they said Treon was a better runner than Grier, that has been proven incorrect. Said hes a better deep ball thrower than Grier, that is incorrect. The dude just fucking sucks.

Now with that statement Go Gators
 
Hit the B1G middle: Michigan St +625 future and Iowa +3'. Most profitable game of the season for me
 
Awesome hit on the future. Sparty went old school Bama on that last drive to win and Cook being as hurt as he appeared to be was about the equivalent of McElroy leading the troops as well. That was the longest drive by an team this season, 22 play, 82 yards and 9:04 of clock. Awesome.

I think it will go:

1. clemson
2. Bama
3. Mich State
4. Oklahoma

or

1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Oklahoma
4. Michigan State

The second scenario is less likely but I really think somehow we get matched up against Mich St. Just wish it was gonna be played next week with Cook in the condition he is - would be a massacre.
 
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