gps_3 Bowl Season
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gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Rough day yesterday. Not a disaster by any means though. May add a few plays here and there today to what I already have. Will look at my usual Alabama opponent TT UN. Interesting to note that the last time Alabama gave up 20+ to a pro-style offense was LSU in 2010. I really don't think Mich St will be able to out-Alabama Alabama, so I expect a win tonight, though I'm not comfortable laying DDs. By all reports, the team attitude is great, much better than last year. Doesn't mean anything really, other than Saban will have to find another excuse if we lose. Hope everyone has a safe and fun NYE. Will be around while I'm at work until noon, then will check in periodically. Good luck
GL to your boys tonight.
Hope it is a sad New Years for Moo U nation up here...
:tiphat:
Not a bad way to end the year. Great night, gps.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Thats pretty much what I'm thinking, 20-16 with a bunch of fgs
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Ended bowl season with a posted record just over .500. I don't post units, but had hit most of my bigger bets until the Oregon meltdown. A little bit of live betting helped me there, but I was counting my money at halftime. Goes to show why I hate backing teams that don't play any defense.
As for the last game, I always put a bet in on Alabama to win the championship, so I'm holding an Alabama +600 bet. I have also bet on the UN 52'. Early thoughts on the game are that Clemson's offense and Watson in particular will pose a different threat than Michigan State's offense. I've heard it stated on TV that Clemson and Ole Miss run the same offense, though from what I've seen that's not entirely accurate. I really like the level of focus from Alabama right now, and they are playing their best football of the season, different from the last few seasons where they peaked in October/November. Coker played the game of his life against Mich St, and if he can put together a similar performance, it's going to be tough for Clemson to slow down Alabama. There are no worries about Derrick Henry being banged up or tired, and I do believe that Clemson's aggressive defense can be neutralized against the run. For Clemson, Watson is the key, as he has been in all their games. He is an exceptional player, and exceptional QB play, along with offensive balance, has been the key to beating Alabama the last few seasons. However, I do think this is our best defense against the more modern offenses we've seen. Our rotation on the DL along with the substitution patterns this season have been perfected and rarely have you seen the defense out of position pre-snap, which has plagued us against Auburn, aTm, and Ohio State. I think if both teams play a clean game, Alabama wins. As always, turnovers and special teams play can swing it either way. Those two factors have certainly been issues for us in the past, though we have been more than solid in both departments since the Ole Miss game. Last year, Ohio State played an exceptional game against Alabama, and Clemson can certainly do the same, but (homer alert) I think this team gets it done. My PR line gives a line of Alabama -4, but hasn't been updated since the end of the regular season. After watching the games last Thursday, I think the current line of 7/8 is pretty good.
As for the last game, I always put a bet in on Alabama to win the championship, so I'm holding an Alabama +600 bet. I have also bet on the UN 52'. Early thoughts on the game are that Clemson's offense and Watson in particular will pose a different threat than Michigan State's offense. I've heard it stated on TV that Clemson and Ole Miss run the same offense, though from what I've seen that's not entirely accurate. I really like the level of focus from Alabama right now, and they are playing their best football of the season, different from the last few seasons where they peaked in October/November. Coker played the game of his life against Mich St, and if he can put together a similar performance, it's going to be tough for Clemson to slow down Alabama. There are no worries about Derrick Henry being banged up or tired, and I do believe that Clemson's aggressive defense can be neutralized against the run. For Clemson, Watson is the key, as he has been in all their games. He is an exceptional player, and exceptional QB play, along with offensive balance, has been the key to beating Alabama the last few seasons. However, I do think this is our best defense against the more modern offenses we've seen. Our rotation on the DL along with the substitution patterns this season have been perfected and rarely have you seen the defense out of position pre-snap, which has plagued us against Auburn, aTm, and Ohio State. I think if both teams play a clean game, Alabama wins. As always, turnovers and special teams play can swing it either way. Those two factors have certainly been issues for us in the past, though we have been more than solid in both departments since the Ole Miss game. Last year, Ohio State played an exceptional game against Alabama, and Clemson can certainly do the same, but (homer alert) I think this team gets it done. My PR line gives a line of Alabama -4, but hasn't been updated since the end of the regular season. After watching the games last Thursday, I think the current line of 7/8 is pretty good.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
A note about the game: Alabama doesn't start classes back until Monday January 11th, meaning no practice/meeting restrictions this week. I believe Clemson starts classes on Wednesday. This same scenario played out last year with Ohio St having no restrictions while Oregon did. Not saying it means anything, but just interesting. I'm sure there will be moves to change this in the future so that all teams have the same restrictions
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
Goodness gracious gps, I understand your reasoning, but you need to warm up to the fact that this is going to be a murder on national television tonight. Bet the game son!!!
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Hope you're right Jimmy.
Added Clemson TT UN 22 and one prop for now, Alabama -2' first downs. This one is pretty simple in my mind. Clemson isn't going to put together long drives that cover 7+ plays with multiple first downs. They are going to have to hit big plays or have short fields to score. If they don't then I expect Alabama to have the ball most of the game and win the FD battle easily
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
Do me a favor, and find and bet this prop. Alabama -21.5 @ +500. Find it, and bet it. You don't have to thank me, just buy me a beer in T-town next season!
