GP's ATP & WTA 2007 Tennis Picks

[gpcyan3]

~ Posted YTD: 49-49-6 -11.02u~

I'm going to use this thread to track my picks for the entire season.
Comments, suggestions, and discussions are greatly appreciated.

Picks for the day will always be in a new post at the bottom of the thread.


~Dates of bets~
6/8: 0-1 -1.5u
6/5: 0-2 -4.7u
6/2: 0-1 -2.03u
6/1: 2-1 -.6u
5/31: 2-2 +2.55u
5/30: 3-2 +.82u
5/29: 5-6 -1.25u
5/24: 1-0 +2.2u
5/23: 4-4 -.88u
5/21: 2-0 +2.8u
5/17: 1-0 +1u
5/16: 4-2 +.5u
4/23: 3-2 -2.75u
4/20: 0-1 -2u
4/19: 1-1 +0.0u
4/18: 2-2-1 +1.45u
4/16: 3-4-1 -4.7u
4/12:1-0 +2u
4/11: 1-0 +3.9u
4/1: 0-1 -2.6u
3/31: 1-1 +1u
3/29: 0-2 -2u
3/28: 1-1 +0.0
3/27: 1-1 +0.0
3/26: 3-2 -.75u
1/14: 1-2-1 +.3u
1/12: 1-0 +1u
1/10: 0-1 -1.46u
1/?: 0-1 -1u
1/?: 0-3 -3.285u
1/5: 1-0 +1u
1/4: 2-0-1 +2.64u
1/2: 2-1 +1u
12/31: 1-0 +2u
12/30: 0-2 -5.68u

 

[gpcyan3]

Saturday 12/30/06

Starting out with a couple for the Hopman Cup:

Laying a bit of chalk on Fish today as I believe he will outclass Haehnel and should take this one fairly easy. I also like the fact that the Russians hit a bump in the road early and will hopefully give a little bit of fire for the USA to continue it's run here.

I'm also taking a stab at the US country matchup as I believe this one will be a tie (Fish d. Haehnel, Glovin d. Harkleroad) and will be decided with a doubles match. Looking at the skills levels of both players combined I believe US has an advantage and could also possess the more experienced doubles team. Harkleroad finished last season with a 23-13 double rec compared to Glovin's 7-6. It seems Harkle played quite a lot of doubles last year compared to her singles match count and I hope this will provide a clear advantage for the US team. Also I believe Glovin's doubles partners were clearly ranked higher than Harkle's yet she does not have the better rec. Something to note as well is the fact both of these women are replacements for wrist injuries that occur to the original players (Nicolas Kiefer and Venus Williams). Although I believe Harkle had much less time to prepare than Glovin.

I'm anxious to get this season started off on the right foot. Value may be on France here, but my gut tells me US is the play today.

M. Fish (USA) over J. Haehnel (Fra) -422 (4.22u to win 1u)

U.S.A. over France (Best of 3) -146 (1.46u to win 1u)

excellent way to start the season off!! =(

12/30: 0-2 -5.68u

 

[gpcyan3]

Chalk it up again.

J. Johansson over L. Doulhy -389 (7.78u to win 2u)

chalk paid out today.

12/31: 1-0 +2u

 

[gpcyan3]

More chalk. Elder vs Youngin. Philly vs some noob.

M. Philippoussis (Aus) over J. Haehnel (Fra) -267 (2.67u to win 1u)

Aus over Fra -244 (2.44u to win 1u)

Just feel Philly will roll. He's got the experience and another win will solidy these Aussies.

 

[gpcyan3]

Dog day. Injury for Philly is a void.

M. Kirilenko over D. Safina +216 (1u to win 2.16u) Straight Set Lose

Kirilenko has enough game to take out Safina. I see a close match today and price merits a play.

M. Mirnyi over some noob -156 (1.56u to win 1u) Straight Set Win 6-3, 6-3

also adding

J. Jankovic over E. Daniilidou -315 (3.15u to win 1u) Straight set win 6-4, 6-3

1/2: 2-1 +1u

 

[gpcyan3]

Got a few picks for today and a couple days in the future.

E. Dementieva over N. Vaidisova +102 (1u to win 1.02u) Winner in 2 sets 3-6, 6-3, 6-2

J. Benneteau over I. Andreev +108 (1.5u to win 1.62u) Winner in Straight Sets, 7-6 (4), 6-2

V. Zvonareva over V. Razzano Win 2 - 0? Yes -111 (1.11u to win 1u) Razzano retired down 7-5, 2-0

also had Del Porto over phm, but didn't get it posted in time.

decent day. Razzano retired or else i would have went 3-0.

1/4: 2-0-1 +2.64u

 

[gpcyan3]

One late bet for today.

J. Johansson over V. Spadea -218 (2.18u to win 1u)

ran delayed, and finally got played.

I was going to take del porto again but didn't pull the trigger. I should have. Will have a couple bets for the next day or two.

1/5: 1-0 +1u

 

[gpcyan3]

1/6:

Johansson has been hot. I remember last year he went on a midyear run at some point and had some decent tourneys. I believe this is one of them and although I would like to see +180,+200 line, I'll take him as a dog anyways.

J. Johansson over N. Djokovic +156 (1u to win 1.56u)

Maria will take this one in 3.

M. Sharapova over K. Clijsters -176 (1.76u to win 1u)

And I'm also going with my boy Murray against Ljub. I feel this is Murray's year to maintain top 10.

A. Murray over I. Ljubicic -105 (.525u to win .5u)

1/?: 0-3 -3.285u

 

[gpcyan3]

adding in a set prop for moya.


C. Moya over Koubek: Will C. Moya Win 2-1 ? Yes +312 (1u to win 3.12u)

1/5: 0-1 -1u

 

[gpcyan3]

1/10/07

Guccione over Meltzer -146 (1.46u to win 1u)

chalk up another loss.

1/10: 0-1 -1.46u

 

[gpcyan3]

Chalk it up baby!!

Taking Blake today with tons of chalk in the bag.

Blake over Moya -380 (3.8u to win 1u)


1/12: 1-0 +1u

 

[Toronto_Mike]

Blake defends the title. Congrats.

 

[gpcyan3]

Thanks Mike. Figured he would take the match as he is playing Moya again in the AO and it was great practice as well as a tourney win.

On to Austrailan Open.

Been waiting for this one for a while.

Will have more picks throughout the day, starting off with a large play on a pick one of my buddy's turned me on to.

Vincent Spadea over Igor Andreev -110 (3.3u to win 3u)

adding...

Ivo Karlovic over Jurgen Melzer -130 (1.3u to win 1u)

Teimruaz Gabashvili over Lukas Dlouhy -140 (1.4u to win 1u)

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez over Joachim Johansson +225 (1u to win 2.25u)

1/14: 1-2-1 +.3u

 

[gpcyan3]

Will update record later in the tourney.

Taking a small bite on

Evgeny Korolev over Fernando Gonzalez +300 (.5u to win 1.5u)

Will probably play some more as it gets closer to match time.

adding a quick play on

Kristof Vliegen -150 (1.5u to win 1u)

Fish played well yesterday, but I'm not a huge fan of him today. - Sorry about Anabel yesterday, she collapsed.

 

[abcs]

What about Mardy Fish..

Anyway that girl choked away the match oh well..

 

[gpcyan3]

Getting back on track for the year. Have been recording stats and watched a couple tourneys so far this year, now it's time to put that to use.

3/26 Monday plays:

Guillermo Canas over Richard Gasquet -105 (1.05u to win 1u)
Nadia Petrova over Dinara Safina -280 (2.8u to win 1u)
Justine Henin over Vera Zvonareva -350 (3.5u to win 1u)
David Nalbandian over Jarkko Nieminen -225 (2.25u to win 1u)
Tomas Berdych over Juan Ignacio Chela -150 (1.5u to win 1u)

I may add a couple more later...

Thoughts are welcome.

3/26: 3-2 -.75u

 

[scourge]

I've got Canas +105 and Berdych -140.

Nalby's form concerns me right now and I don't bet on the ladies. Good luck with all your plays though.

 

[gpcyan3]

I won't be backing Nalbandian for a while... he's just not the same player. Seems his nerves are getting the best of him.
Also should have hedged out of Berdych as I watched the odds skyrocket against him near match time.

Today I'm fading Ljubicic, he looked like total shit yesterday...

Jarkko Nieminen over Ivan Ljubicic +170 (1u to win 1.70u)
Andy Roddick over David Ferrer -220 (2.2u to win 1u)

and I'm tempted to take Fed at this low number as I believe it's impossible for him to loose twice to Canas, also tempted to take Petrova but havent pulled the trigger yet.

3/27: 1-1 +0.0

 

[scourge]

Neims numbers are nuts. +170? after the way Santoro handled Ljubs in the 1st set last night?

Ljubicic isn't focused on the court. His mind is somewhere else.

in regards to Roddick/ferrer

Ferrer is more than capable of taking this match with relative ease today.

I have to agree with this writeup, minus the broken english.

"David Ferrer has really great record(17-6) of 2007. His main advantage is great fighting skills and constant play from baseline. And Spaniard really loves to play in Miami as He reached semis in last two years. And even more important fact is that He beat Roddick here last year in quarters. This slow hard court fully suits his playing style. What about Roddick. In my eyes he isn't at best shape right now. His serve and forehand shots aren't so effective. He uses too much topspin and too passive game from baseline."

 

[gpcyan3]

Agreed scourge...

Seems a lot of people are fading Andy here, but I give him a decent chance as his form is a lot better than last year @ this tourney where he got beat.

 

[$$$$inmywallett]

anyone taking roddick today at -155 ?

 

[claycourtlesson]

Roddick/Murray.....it goes like this-

If Roddick can do the serve/volley thing, he has a chance. The Miami courts are slow, though, so he won't just serve his way to easy holds....he'll have to close the point at the net.

Also, let's face it, Murray is about three times the player Roddick is in terms of versatility and repertoire.

Roddick in on home court, so that will help him.

On a neutral court, with both players fit and ready to go, I'd say Murray would beat Roddick 3 out of 5 times.

No bet for me today....I'll just be a fan.

 

[$$$$inmywallett]

thnx claycourt for your insight

 

[scourge]

that's one thing I love about tennis betting. Even when you lose your bet, you don't lose.

Roddick withdraw for the push/cancel

 

[claycourtlesson]

Started off like a good match to be, but not to be in the end.

Patrick McEnroe is now sweating the Davis Cup.

Look for Patrick Mc to go with Mardy Fish if Andy Roddick can't go vs Spain in Winston-Salem, NC next w-end. Patrick Mc loves Mardy Fish.

Ain't going to be easy for USA now that Andy R is a question. Spain, even without Nadal, is rough. Blake can't be trusted, that's for sure. Bryan Bros are so solid, but losing Andy Roddick (maybe) could be brutal.

These guys are off their rocker on Masha.....it isn't s "serve deal." Queen Booty just flat out owns Masha.

 

[gpcyan3]

Yea, Roddick's health problems will definitely throw a damper on the Davis Cup.
Seems every year its something or another with Americans at the cup, but who knows... maybe Fish will bring his top game if he gets the call.

Tonight, I believe Serena rolls and I will be playing her on 2-0 as she loves to end matches early without going 3. She has shown me nothing but great tennis at this tourney.

Also I like Nadal here as well, but I'm not sure if the price is right, so I'm playing him small.

Rafael Nadal over Novak Djokovic -310 (1u to win .33u)

Williams over Vaidisova: Serena Williams wins 2 - 0 -125 (1.25u to win 1u)


Slowly trying to work to the positive side...

3/28: 1-1 +0.0

 

[claycourtlesson]

GPCY-

BOL on the bets, man.

Last time young Novak played Rafa, it was "A Tale of Two Matches." If Djokovic can play like he did in the second set at Indian Wells, then we got a scorcher tonight.

To play with Rafa, you got to hit flat, hard, and deep. Once Rafa can get in to you off a short ball, the point is over. Also, no drop shots!!!!

If Queen Booty has her best game going tonight, there is no contest between Nicole and her. But if Queen Booty isn't on task, then Nicole has a powerful enough game to take her down.

Should be a lot of fun.

 

[gpcyan3]

Interesting match last night. Glad I didn't lay that much on Nadal as I had a feeling Novak might continue his great play.

I'm taking the doggies tomorrow each for 1u.

Tommy Robredo over Guillermo Canas +160 (1u to win 1.6u)

Juan Ignacio Chela over Ivan Ljubicic +180 (1u to win 1.8u)

3/29: 0-2 -2u

 

[gpcyan3]

Dogs were not biting yesterday.

Maybe today.

Murray +145 (1u to win 1.45)

ugh Murray didnt even show up.

taking

Canas -115 1st Set Winner (2.3u to win 2u)

Let's get back on the positive.

3/31: 1-1 +1u

 

[gpcyan3]

Today I'm playing...


Guillermo Canas vs Novak Djokovic total games Over 38½ games -130 (2.6u to win 2u)

Should be a close match. I am leaning toward Canas but I didn't pull the trigger.

4/1: 0-1 -2.6u

 

[gpcyan3]

Wednesday 4/11/07

4/11

Been a week or two since I've posted a play.

Wednesday I'm taking:

Alberto Martin over Feliciano Lopez +130 (3u to win 3.9u)

I just have no faith in FL's form and I like the movement and price on Martin.

4/11: 1-0 +3.9u

 

[scourge]

nice pick with Martin. Lopez just didn't show up as usual.

 

[gpcyan3]

Nice to see Martin cash in.
4/12 - Val
I'm taking Evgeny. Always been a fan of this kid. Very good serve (if he can get it in), and so much talent... only thing holding him back from becoming a top player is his head, seems to loose it on occasion.

Either way, I think if Korolev has a decent 1st serve %, he has a great chance to take this one.

Korolev over Roitman -165 (3.3u to win 2u)

Also looking into playing something in USA later.

4/12:1-0 +2u

 

[gpcyan3]

Sunday.

4/15/07

Taking the ever so hot

Jelena Jankovic 1st Set Winna over Safina -160 (1.6u to win 1u)

Jank played well yesterday. I'll take my chances.

 

[gpcyan3]

Monte Carlo

4/16/07

Big day here for me. Let's hope I'm on the right side of most of these.

PHM over Kristof Vliegen -270 (5.4u to win 2u)

Jose Acasuso over Igor Andreev -150 (1.5u to win 1u)

Max Mirnyi over Marcos Baghdatis +300 (.5u to win 1.5u)

Marc Gicquel over Florian Mayer +120 (1u to win 1.2u)

Tim Henman over Juan Carlos Ferrero +300 (.5u to win 1.5u)

Olivier Rochus over Robin Soderling +110 (1u to win 1.1u)

Gael Monfils over Radek Stepanek +140 (1u to win 1.4u)

Andreas Seppi over Teimuraz Gabashvili -150 (1.5u to win 1u)

Hope to have a good tourney and break the even marker.

Well things didn't work out too well today, PHM really let me down as that was the biggest play for me by far.

4/16/07: 3-4-1 -4.7u

 

[scourge]

Nice dog hit with Mirnyi and Gicquel so far! I wish I'd looked at them a little closer now.

 

[Songo]

best of luck this week Gpcyan, and thanks for the good words

 

[gpcyan3]

14/18/07

Monte Carlo

Taking

Ivan L. over Stepanek -130 (2.6u to win 2u)

Decided to take a couple more.

Gaston Gaudio over Novak Djokovic +350 (1u to win 3.5u)
Igor Andreev over Fernando Gonzalez +145 (1u to win 1.45u)
Philipp Kohlschreiber over David Nalbandian +175 (1u to win 1.75u)
Nicolas Massu over Juan Carlos Ferrero +180 (1u to win 1.8u)

Hope the dogs continue to bite.

4/18: 2-2-1 +1.45u

 

[scourge]

did you get any info on why Nalby quit?

 

[gpcyan3]

Nah scourge, I didn't get a chance to watch his match and I'm not 100% sure why he retired.

He looked like shit in the first round so I figured there was something physically wrong with him, just can't put my finger on it. I'm thinking something to do with his ankles or legs, but that's just an educated guess.

Who knows... sometimes retiring saves me, sometimes it doesn't, this time it was the latter.

I'll have a play or two up soon as I'm surfing around right now...

Robredo is looking good to me right now... isn't clay his best surface?

 

[scourge]

Tommy tends to struggle with power hitters, even on clay. Berdych leads the H2H 2-1. In his last 5 matches on clay Tommy has lost to Volandri, Mayer and Melzer. His victories came against Clement and Minar, who are both less than adequate on the red stuff.

Birdman is just looking like the stronger player right now and to get the odds he's getting? I'm taking the czech myself.

 

[scourge]

I'm also going to stake Ferrer today. His game is looking good right now.

 

[gpcyan3]

cool... maybe I'll rethink Tommy...

Not really sure about Ferrer. I don't know his game too well but Novak looked fine yesterday...

I already locked in...

Kohlschreiber over GGL @ -150 (1.5u to win 1u)

Also thinking about Andreev over Juan C.F.
Andreev just rolls on clay it seems...

Well.. I think I'm gonna lay off on some today. Just have that feeling...

gonna go with small stake on

Ivan over Frenchy +130 (1u to win 1.3u)

Ljubicic always seems to win the big points and I'll take him as a dog against Gasquet who had some physical problems yesterday (I believe)

4/18: 1-1 +0.0u

 

[scourge]

the line just moved to +145 for Ivan at the greek, i don't like that

 

[gpcyan3]

yea movement is against me on Ivan...

the money today seems to be on...

andreev
gasquet
kohl

Seems Djo vs Ferrer match is back and forth

 

[scourge]

I'm sorry!

I hope you took Tommy and disregarded my poor match analysis. Berdych is just plaiun horrid right now. He's not even trying to run down points and has something like 13 or 15 unforced errors right now. Just plain painful to watch but I'm going to keep on as a form of torture for my stupidity.

 

[gpcyan3]

lol don't worry about it, you made me tons of money last year.

I did take him and andreev but very low stakes, just wanted some action on the match



looks like tommy ran out of gas... too much running not enough shot placement...

thanks for the info, saved me some cash

 

[scourge]

damn.

that was some meltdown by tommy. Glad to see I haven't lost it completely in terms of capping. What I thought was going to happen did and Birdman's power & aggressiveness took the match.

and Ferrer's game was sharp as hell today. Really looking good and I'm looking forward to his odds against Feds. Maybe an upset?

 

[gpcyan3]

Good call on Tomas and Ferrer.

Ivan played how I thought he would. He had some chances just didn't cash in. Kohl sneaked by.

Today I like:

Robin Soderling over Tomas Berdych +135 (2u to win 2.7u)

H2H 2-2 with RS taking last two in 2006
Berd has been winning but I'm still not that impressed with his game on clay. Hoping Soderling incorporates some variety to his game and makes Tomas work alot.

Other thoughts...
Federer might drop a set...
Nadal probably won't drop a set...
Gasquet's (shoulder) problem might still be a factor but against Ferrero who surprizingly hasn't choked yet not sure if I want to back either here...

4/20: 0-1 -2u

 

[scourge]

With you on Soderling.

I'm staking Ferrero on principal. F*ck Gasquet. I've watched his 1st three matches and I'm more inclined to think his opponents have lost, rather than Gasqueef assertively winning. (with the exception of the atrocious Hrbaty, I will admit he cakewalked all over that chump)

Ljubs could have won that match and Verdasco had multiple opps to take valuable points but thats all in the past. JCF isn't going to give points away and I fancy his clay tendencies to take the match from the Frenchman.