Going to fade the Astros every game between 4.25-6.9 (43 games) (13 series)

  • Thread starter Thread starter Gyno
  • Start date Start date
GJ. Let's keep cashing in.

On a related note, will Houston lose 120 games this year? My dream is to see a 120+ loss team before I die. Detroit came so close that one year 8-9 years ago, but they somehow got hot in the final week of the season to avoid 120.
 
slugur said:
GJ. Let's keep cashing in.

On a related note, will Houston lose 120 games this year? My dream is to see a 120+ loss team before I die. Detroit came so close that one year 8-9 years ago, but they somehow got hot in the final week of the season to avoid 120.
Click to expand...

Why stop at 120? I'd love to see them top 130 (.197 win rate). But their current losing rate (.250 = 40-122/41-121) maintained will see them crack the 120 barrier.
 
Okay don't love this series...

Two bets for today..

0.3* Angels -1 -148

0.25* Angels series wager -220
 
I'm going to stay away from game 2... I don't like Blanton at all, Pujols and Hamilton are worthless. Norris is the Astros most consistent and best pitcher and is solid @ home.
 
Overall wagers:
20-7 +3.34 units

Red Sox Series:
8-0 +2.16 units

Yanks Series:
5-5 +0.51 units

Tigers Series:
7-0 +1.66 units

Angels Series
0-2 -0.99 units

Astros W/L Record: 3-10 (30 games left)
Astros Series Record: 1-3 (9 series left)


I'm still thinking about tonights game.. But wow the Angels are going bad right now, this team is putrid.

First series win for the Astros, I think thats it.. I'm going to parlay the rest of the series against them.
 
Does Angels manager get the axe? This team is so bad. All that money spent and hardly any wins to show for it.
 
Norris is a really good pitcher.. He is totally their ACE. I'm going to be careful when he pitches..

Dude is a QS machine.
 
Overall wagers:
20-7 +3.34 units

Red Sox Series:
8-0 +2.16 units

Yanks Series:
5-5 +0.51 units

Tigers Series:
7-0 +1.66 units

Angels Series
0-2 -0.99 units

Astros W/L Record: 3-11 (29 games left)
Astros Series Record: 1-3 (9 series left)



Wow the Angels are bad. Not too much damage done in that series, lost less than a unit. I'm happy with it.

I like the Rangers much better in this series.

Ogando vs Kuechel

Darvish vs Bedard (Texas -2.5 will be bet in this one)

Tepesch vs Lyles



I personally think the Astros get swept in this series and possibly in Detroit in next series too. Money to be made here.



Here are my bets for today:

0.4* Tex RL -125

0.25* ML Parlay (+129)
Bos/Tex

Open and series wagers:

Risking 0.5* on Rangers -300 on series
will parlay this to tigers series in next

Risking 0.25* on ML parlay with one spot open
will finish it tomorrow.
TEX -205
 
Astros W/L Record: 3-12 (28 games left)
Astros Series Record: 1-3 (9 series left)

2-0 +0.72 units so far


0.55* TEX RL -145

0.25* TEX TT over 5

Finishing open parlay
Tex -205 (5/10)
Tex -245 (today)
odds +109

Risking 0.25

Also have series wager..
 
Astros W/L Record: 3-13 (27 games left)
Astros Series Record: 1-4 (8 series left)

5-1 +0.62 units

(losing the RL wager really hurt, lots of profit was loss there)




Well I'm going to secure profit and attempt to win a clean unit on this series..

0.38* TEXAS -1 -111

Texas wins by 2+ = +1.00 units on series
Texas wins by 1= +0.62 units on series
Texas loses= +0.20 units
 
terrible beat on that rl the other day .. thinking maybe i am not greedy enough fading these guys .. huge investment in season wins under to avoid the pricing problems i knew would exist .. mostly turned onto it that way from southside.
 
You can count on the profit from that Astros under buddy..

Red Sox Series:
8-0 +2.16 units

Yanks Series:
5-5 +0.51 units

Tigers Series:
7-0 +1.66 units

Angels Series
0-2 -0.99 units

Rangers Series
6-1 +1.00 units

Overall wagers:
26-8 +4.34 units

Astros W/L Record: 3-14 (26 games left)
Astros Series Record: 1-4 (8 series left)
 
0.3* Tigers RL -125

0.25* ML Parlay (1 open spot)
Tigers -285

Risking 0.66 units on Tigers series -500 to win 0.13 units (parlaying the series wagers)


tue: Harrell vs Fister
wed: kuechel vs Scherzer

Juice is a little high on this game 1 like my man dwoww said so I'm not risking too much on this one.. The game I really like is Wednesday's.. I think the Tigers smoke them in that game.
 
1-0 +0.33 units

0.3* Tigers RL -135
0.1* Tigers -2.5 +125

Closing open parlay
Tigers -285
Tigers -310 (today)

-128


With the juice so high I have to wager small. I do love tomorrows matchup though and will go bigger on that one...
 
Overall wagers:
31-8 +5.42 units

Astros W/L Record: 3-16 (24 games left)
Astros Series Record: 1-5 (7 series left)

Tigers Series: 5-0 +1.08 units
 
Profit will be secured..

0.4* ML Parlay (-108)
DET/STL

0.3* Tigers RL -160


Juice has been extremely high in this series and like I said prior it will get even worse because the Astros are a hopeless squad that will lose 70-80 more games.. It may look conservative the way I go about this but its very methodical and I can withstand a loss or two and still come out
ahead.


When the Stros play Pitt it may get a little shaky. Be careful with that series.
 
Red Sox Series:
8-0 +2.16 units

Yanks Series:
5-5 +0.51 units

Tigers Series:
7-0 +1.66 units

Angels Series
0-2 -0.99 units

Rangers Series
6-1 +1.00 units

Tigers
5-2 +0.18 units

Overall wagers:
31-10 +4.52 units

Astros W/L Record: 4-16 (23 games left) .200 win pct
Astros Series Record: 1-4 (8 series left)


Pirates next..

Lyles (8.36 ERA) vs Jeanmar Gomez
Bedard (6.68 ERA) vs Aj Burnett
Norris (4.32 ERA) vs Jeff Locke

Pirates should win the first two, that 3rd game might be tricky..
 
Red Sox Series:
8-0 +2.16 units

Yanks Series:
5-5 +0.51 units

Tigers Series:
7-0 +1.66 units

Angels Series
0-2 -0.99 units

Rangers Series
6-1 +1.00 units

Tigers
5-2 +0.18 units

Overall wagers:
31-10 +4.52 units

Astros W/L Record: 4-16 (23 games left) .200 win pct
Astros Series Record: 1-4 (8 series left)



Ok I'm going to keep this simple. No series wagers, Can't see myself laying -300 on Pirates to win series.. But I'm going to wager on Pitt -1 throughout and hopefully it comes through..


0.5* Pirates -1 -131​
 
Figured you'd do well this one, Gyno...keep up the good work, I've always liked this concept. One question, though...have you ever picked the wrong time to fade and backed away? I can't recall this strategy ever going very badly, but was wondering. Thanks.
 
It's been a while since one has gone poorly..

I had a terrible one in 09 with the Indians.. Had another bad one with the o's..
I think one last year barely loss money..
 
Astros W/L Record: 4-17 (22 games left)
Astros Series Record: 1-4 (8 series left)


0.4* Pitt RL -110

Going with RL only..
 
Overall wagers:
31-11 +4.08 units


Pirates are pathetic.. Not too much harm done.

Astros W/L Record: 4-18 (20 games left)
Astros Series Record: 1-5 (7 series left)


0.5* Royals -1 -131
 
Astros W/L Record: 5-18 (19 games left)
Astros Series Record: 1-5 (7 series left)

Overall wagers:
31-12 +3.42 units

Royals Series: 0-1 -0.65 units

Usually scoring 5 runs does the job but again the Astros offense comes through.. Fading Astros hasn't been so great lately, still going to fade but might hold back a little.


0.25* Royals -124
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Astros W/L Record: 5-19 (19 games left)
Astros Series Record: 1-5 (7 series left)

Overall wagers:
32-12 +3.67 units

Royals Series: 1-1 -0.40 units
​
 
cologist smart move i'm doing the same thing HOUSTON and MIAMI are just so bad like yesterday both of these team's won there game; can both team win again the chance of that happening where slim to none gl goodnight
 
Astros W/L Record: 5-19 (19 games left)
Astros Series Record: 1-5 (7 series left)

Overall wagers:
32-12 +3.67 units

Royals Series: 1-1 -0.40 units
​




today's wager:
0.6* Royals RL -120


Royals RL wins 2-1 +0.20 units
Royals win by 1 or lose: 1-2 -1.12 units

on this series.
 
Red Sox Series:
8-0 +2.16 units

Yanks Series:
5-5 +0.51 units

Tigers Series:
7-0 +1.66 units

Angels Series
0-2 -0.99 units

Rangers Series
6-1 +1.00 units

Tigers Series:
5-2 +0.18 units

Pirates Series:
0-1-2 -0.44 units

Royals Series:
1-2 -1.12 units

Overall wagers:
32-13 +2.95 units

Astros W/L Record: 6-19 (18 games left)
Astros Series Record: 2-5 (6 series left)
​

This has not been profitable, last 3 series.. Need to reassess situation.. ​
 
Here are the pitching matchups.


Fri: Milone vs Bedard
Sat: Griffin vs Harrell
Sun: Colon vs Kuechel

Mon: Norris vs Chacin
Tues: Lyles vs Delarosa

I will likely end this fade sooner than 6.9
 
Overall wagers:
32-13 +2.95 units

Astros W/L Record: 6-19 (18 games left)
Astros Series Record: 2-5 (6 series left)


Depending on these first two games, this may be coming to an end. Oak, Colo and Balt look a bit worse than they did a month ago.

0.35* OAK -1 -127
 
Overall wagers:
33-13 +3.30 units

Astros W/L Record: 6-21 (16 games left)
Astros Series Record: 2-6 (5 series left)
 

Red Sox Series:
8-0 +2.16 units

Yanks Series:
5-5 +0.51 units

Tigers Series:
7-0 +1.66 units

Angels Series
0-2 -0.99 units

Rangers Series
6-1 +1.00 units

Tigers Series:
5-2 +0.18 units

Pirates Series:
0-1-2 -0.44 units

Royals Series:
1-2 -1.12 units
A's Series
2-0-1 +0.75 units

Overall wagers:
34-13 +3.70 units

Astros W/L Record: 6-22 (15 games left)
Astros Series Record: 2-6 (5 series left)
​




For Monday:
0.3* Rockies -1 -108

Don't like this matchup too much.. Like next game better.
 
Kind of funny but I am throwing in the towel of sorts when it comes to backing the Astros... and you are throwing in the towel of sorts to fading them at the same time. It is hard to make a ton of money fading them and backing them is soul drenching. I mean they are losing at a super high clip and you still only get peanuts per series of profit .. any kind of win streak ( hard with no lineup, no rotation and a bad and tired bullpen ) and it will take weeks to win the money back fading them. There is a reason teams aren't dogged this big in baseball. As bad as the Astros are, it isn't unlv trying to beat Alabama in cfb or something. I think you did a good job staggering and betting small enough to not get hurt and still made nice profit .. might still be profit there to be made but your profit already is nothing to sneeze at. nice work. I mean no lead is safe with those bums. I cannot recall a worst baseball team in my lifetime. Remember when all the fans didn't want them to get value from biggio, berkman and bagwell or they would quit buying tickets???? Now look at the ballclub
 
:shake: VK.... and the whole thread and idea. I got laughed at when I suggested 10 wins in these 43 was their ceiling when mentioning it to the guys i swap numbers with. At least they got the gist of what I was saying. Some of these recent lines have been ridiculous, and I'm not convinced this team wins more than 40 times.
 
pretty much my only future was Astros under ( several numbers but think 59.5 was the best I got ). They are so bad Rex ... imagine getting heavily invested in a seasons win under and the team surprises you massively by underachieving even more. What a horrid baseball team. City should be embarrassed..... Meanwhile, look what Nolan Ryan is doing.
 
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