Going to fade the Astros every game between 4.25-6.9 (43 games) (13 series)

  • Thread starter Thread starter Gyno
  • Start date Start date
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Gyno

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One thing I've had EXTREME success with is fading a certain team for a predetermined amount of time. My last two from last season went 10-2 and the other went 8-3. I've been doing this since 2007.


^^^
These fade or follows of teams is my favorite thing to in gambling..


This time I'm going to FADE the ASTROS.

First lets look at their schedule:


APRIL:






MAY:





JUNE:






Brutal schedule for a team who can't hit or pitch for the most part. This team really can't pitch on the road.

I don't need to sell you on how bad the Astros are.
 
I'm going to be flexible with this.. I will not flat bet nor will I be making the same kind of wagers..

I will be mixing it up with:
-1's
RL's
-2.5's
TT unders for Astros
TT overs vs Astros
Series wagers
ML parlay open and close


I don't see the Astros winning any of these series during this stretch. In case you're interested there will be 13 series during this stretch, I think there is a great chance they go 0-13 in these series, more realistically they will go 1-12, maybe 2-11. Also I'm expecting a nice 8+ game losing streak, maybe 2
smileyface.gif


This is a brutal stretch there isn't one easy game during this stretch. I'm predicting the Astros win 18% of these games and finish 8-35.. I think money can be made even if they go 13-30 30%..

I am aware that odds will be high for the majority of these games so I will wager accordingly and the focus will be to profit at the end of the set amount of games.
 
Holy Shit! That is insane. Nice find man. Gonna look forward to some good opportunity. However, I think there will be some good value with in backing Houston in select F5's.
 
first game.. First game is very important in these, always like to start off on a good note.


Red Sox RL -125 for 0.2 units
Red Sox -2 -107 for 0.10 units

Open parlay (2 spots open)
Risking 1/3 unit
Red Sox ML -250

going to parlay ML's in this series.

tomorrow I'm going to add wagers on Boston TT over (preferably @ 5) and Boston Series. Yes Im aware the series price will be very high.


This will be fun and hopefully profitable..
 
Adding:
Red sox series - 400 for 0.15 units
Red sox tt over 5 - 130 for 0.15 units
 
Red Sox RL -125 for 0.2 units (WON)
Red sox tt over 5 - 130 for 0.15 units (WON)
Red Sox -2 -107 for 0.10 units (WON)

overall wagers: 3-0 +0.45 units
Astros record: 0-1


Pending plays:
Open parlay
Risking 1/3 unit
Red Sox ML -250 (WON)
(2 spots open)

RED SOX SERIES -400 for 0.15 units
​
 
Hey guys, long time lurker.

Great write up, gynecologist. I too had similar ideas at the start of the season but just didn't know if maybe waiting until after the all-star break was the right idea to start something like this. However, the 43 games you highlighted are a great place to start too. I ran with the -1.5 and -2.5 last night, Humber has a 7+ ERA since his perfect game in 25 something starts, so it was a no brainer for me.

However, why on earth would anyone take the Stros tonight with Bedard on the mound? The guy hasn't made it passed the 4th inning yet. Dempster we know is prone to blow ups and the like but I don't see it here tonight.
 
Batters hitting .186 vs Dempster this season, Bedard doesn't go long and Astros BP sucks. I like Red Sox again today.
 
I like the idea here Gyno, I agree that tonight will probably be another lop sided one by the red sox. Dumpster is one of those pitchers that I can never seem to peg though. GL bro.
 
If Boston wins tonight, series wager is completed.


Todays wagers:
Boston RL -120 for 0.3 units

Pending:
Open parlay
Risking 1/3 unit
Red Sox ML -250 (WON)
Red Sox ML -260 (todays game pending)
(1 spots open)

will finish this tomorrow.
 
Won the series wager, plus the RL.. Finishing ML parlay today..

Overall plays: 5-0 +0.90 units
Astros W/L Record: 0-2
Astros Series Record 0-1


Finishing 1/3 unit open parlay today with Red Sox ML , price is +171
so if it wins +0.56, loses -0.33


Red Sox RL -130 for 0.30 units
 
That 2-0 lead had me worried... But leave it to the Astros to give that up and more
smileyface.gif


Go RED SOX!!
 
Overall plays: 7-0 +1.76 units
Astros W/L Record: 0-3 (40 games left)
Astros Series Record 0-1 (12 series left)

Made my money in this series...
 
Going to bet Red Sox -1 -128 for 0.4 units and put this series to rest.. No other wagers and already have mind on Yankees series.

The way I approach these fades is to profit series to series.. Incredible profit already made in series 1, 12 more to go..

smileyface.gif
 
My only gripe is that u need to bet more units!!! 7-0 should yield a lot more than that lol. Keep on killin
 
Overall plays: 8-0 +2.16 units

Astros W/L Record: 0-4 (39 games left)
Astros Series Record 0-1 (12 series left)
 
GL today gyno..I'm already on Yankees RL 500/400 and Yanks/Tigers ML parlay
 
Astros BP has been used a lot lately..
224 pitches in 3 days, 314 in 5 days.


Astros relievers lead the league in innings pitched with 100.2
Astros BP WHIP is currently @ 1.49 (2nd worst)
ERA is 4.56 (5th worst)


Relievers have given up 51 runs in 25 games. (worst is MLB)


Hitters are batting .285 vs Astros relievers (2nd worst)




Probables this series:
Harrell vs Petitte
Humber vs Kuroda (maybe -300 +?)
Bedard vs Phelps
 
Overall Wagers: 8-0 +2.16 units

Astros W/L Record: 0-4 (39 games left)
Astros Series Record 0-1 (12 series left)

Okay going to bet the series, ML parlays open and closed and a little on
the RL.

Yanks to win series -425 for 1/3 unit

0.25* ML Parlay (open with 1 spot)
Yanks ML -240

0.2* ML Parlay (+102)
Yanks
Tigers

0.2* ML Parlay (+104)
Yanks
Brooklyn Nets (NBA)

Yanks RL -120 for 0.10 units
 
Solid work Dr. G

I saw a stat that has the Astro bullpen as the most use this year, I believe they have pitched a combine 100 innings so far
 
Tuesday: 0-4 -0.77 units
Overall Wagers: 8-4 +1.39 units

Astros W/L Record: 1-4 (38 games left)
Astros Series Record 0-1 (12 series left)


Pending wager:
Yanks -425 to win series 1/3 unit

Would really suck if Yanks lost tomorrow, lets just hope this is a one game thing and the Stros go back to their shitty ways..
Not too much damage today and if the Yanks can win the next two everything is just fine.
 
Yankees TT ov 4.5 -130 for 0.4 units

Yankees RL -130 for 0.3 units

ML Parlay (-104) for 0.2 units
Yanks/Tigers
 
Tuesday: 3-0 +0.90 units
Overall wagers: 11-4 +2.29 units


Astros W/L Record: 1-5 (37 games left)
Astros Series Record 0-1 (12 series left)




Pending wager:
Yanks -425 to win series 1/3 unit


^^
Need a Yanks win to cash this tix.
 
Yanks TT over 4.5 -120 for 0.3 units
Yanks RL +105 for 1/4 unit

Need Yanks to win S/U to cash series wager so I'm not going to add anything on ML today considering I pretty much have Yanks ML..



Per MLB.com
Bedard hasn't pitched more than four innings in any of his four starts. After tossing 3 1/3 scoreless relief innings Opening Day, Bedard is 0-2 with a 10.32 ERA in four starts, allowing 13 runs in 7 1/3 innings in last three.
 
not trying to be a jerk but instead of betting everything .2 units why not just make whatever you're betting at .2 your standard one unit size ? Just curious. GL with the plays
 
Overall wagers: 13-5 +2.67 units


Astros W/L Record: 1-6 (36 games left)
Astros Series Record 0-2 (11 series left)

Very happy with the way this fade is going.
 
Tigers -1 -130 for 0.3 units

Tigers TT ov 5 -135 for 0.2 units

Not in love with Porcello, Lyles has an almost 6 ERA in AAA. He is better @ home. When he pitches on the road it will be fade city. Tigers on the road so we get
9 guaranteed innings, that will help with RL and TT overs.
 
Overall wagers: 15-5 +3.17 units


Astros W/L Record: 1-7 (35 games left)
Astros Series Record 0-2 (11 series left)


Astros have lost 7 out of 8
smileyface.gif
 
Tigers -1 -148 for ½ unit
Norris pretty good at home so I'll stay away from TT over. Just this one wager.

I'm playing with a lot of house money now.
 
pushed

Overall wagers: 15-5 +3.17 units


Astros W/L Record: 1-8 (34 games left)
Astros Series Record 0-3 (10 series left)


Astros have lost 8 out of 9



Don't love the Tigers today, so what I'm going to do is start an open ML parlay...

Risking 1/3 unit on
Tigers -185
(1 spot open)

I'll close it tomorrow. Tomorrow will be invested in, RL, Stros TT under and hopefully finish this ML parlay..

GL
 
finishing the parlay

Risking 1/3 unit on
Tigers -185
Tigers -265 (last night)
paying +112

If it loses -0.33, wins +0.36

Also:
0.25* Astros TT under 3 -140
0.2* Tigers -0.5 FF -160
0.15* Tigers RL -165





Hopefully the Tigers care about this game and didn't party too hard last night.. These Sunday games can be weird.
 
I guess not.. What the fuck happen when Petitte the other day? LOL
 
Overall wagers:
20-5 +4.33 units

Red Sox Series:
8-0 +2.16 units

Yanks Series:
5-5 +0.51 units

Tigers Series:
7-0 +1.66 units


Astros W/L Record: 1-10 (32 games left)
Astros Series Record: 0-3 (10 series left)


Overall I have nothing to complain about, R.O.I has been off the chain. I did leave some money on the table
not taking Tigers in series and not betting much on them in game 1 and game 3. But I'm happy. Totally
playing with house money with this now.
 
Thought this one would be profitable...nice work, Gyno. Would love to see you fade the Cubs at some point in the season.
 
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