Going to fade 5 teams simultaneously starting 8.9. All plays in here

  • Thread starter Thread starter Gyno
  • Start date Start date
Rockies, no.. Although I am playing Pitt today..

Brewers cubs were the two that were right...

;)
 
not going to fade the nats? I thought they'd be on your list.

"For the Washington Nationals, the 2013 season has been a huge disappointment, and the team is already beginning to plan ahead for 2014 and beyond, starting at the top. It's been no secret that this was going to be Davey Johnson's last season as manager - though he apparently is going out with a whimper - and a short list of possible replacements is taking shape. <OFFER>According to the Washington Times, candidates for the job include current Nationals coaches Randy Knorr and Trent Jewett, Arizona Diamondbacks coach Matt Williams, and Houston Astros manager Bo Porter.
 
Okay gentleman..

Team #1

Chicago_Cubs_Logo.svg


3 @ STL

3 vs REDS

3 vs STL

4 vs WASH

3 @ SD

3 @ LAD


6 series, 19 games.. Although the Nationals series will likely be wagered on small. I like SD @ home, I think
thats a good series.. Prices won't be too steep and I think SD wins 2/3 for sure.

Cubs are terrible right and their starting pitching is falling apart.

Last 15 games their starters have a combined ERA of 6+

This rotation looks to me like its ready to be in shambles.
Wood (the ace, pretty good)
Samardzjia (he's starting to fall apart)
Rusin (young average kid)
Villanueva (ERA creeping up, might be falling apart)
E. Jackson (Very inconsistent and about avg)


Their hitting isn't much better
Last 15 games
.225 ba, .273 OBP.


Tough schedule..

Should make some good $ fading the Cubbies
 
Team #2


im_brewers_logo_250x150.png


Brewers

Brewers have an OBP of .292 last 15 games, it really doesn't get worse than that..
Weeks is gone. Their pitching has been okay lately but I expect that to change.
They have been playing some horrible offensive teams.


Look at the Brewers upcoming schedule

3 @ SEA
2 @ TEX
3 vs REDS
3 vs STL
3 @ REDS
3 @ PITT

I will go on the smaller side of the M's series, but after that its Texas, Cincy, STL, Cincy and Pitt.
We could see an 8+ game losing streak here. I think they will at the very least lose 8 out of 10 at some
point. They will be playing hungry teams, the hungriest of teams.

Brewers will tank.

Brewers 6-9 hitters will be 1-2-3 innings consistently. They will get nothing out that part of the lineup.

This fade will be great I think.
 
Team # 3

Giants

giants-logo.png


Once a strength now a weakness. The Giants are one of the worst teams in baseball.

Giants BP last 15 games?

1.59 WHIP..

Giants have no offense whatsoever

Last 10 games, 10 runs scored!

Last 15 games the 3-4-5 hitters are batting .227


The last 20 games the Giants OBP is barely over .300

The team is not getting on base, not hitting HRs and the BP hasn't been great either.. This rotation once a strength
is not to be relied upon.



Lets look at the Giants schedule

3 vs Balt
3 @ Wash
3 @ MIA
3 vs Bos
4 vs PITT

Some of you are probably looking at the 6 game stretch vs Wash and Mia and think that might not be good.
Giants are terrible on the road this season no matter who they play. 21-34

There are 13 games here.. I see the Giants winning 5 at the most.

Giants can't hit, if you can score 4 vs them its pretty much an auto win.
 
I still went to dodgers game when they sucked. Good to see you man.
 
Team #4

Mets

57400341208539.jpg


This will pretty much be the lineup you will be seeing from the Mets
1. Eric Young (S) LF
2. Daniel Murphy (L) 2B
3. Marlon Byrd (R) RF
4. Ike Davis (L) 1B
5. Juan Lagares (R) CF
6. Wilmer Flores (R) 3B
7. John Buck (R) C
8. Omar Quintanilla (L) SS
9. Jenrry Mejia (R) P


Not very good is it..


Good timing on this fade because the Mets are currently on a 3 game winning streak. But keep in mind David Wright
wont be coming back for a while. Hes by far the best player on the team.

Obviously when Harvey starts I will shy away but the other times should be money in the bank.

Other starters are all shaky
Hafner shaky
Wheeler shaky
Niese back from DL soon shaky
Gee also inconsistent. (although I kind of like him)

When the Mets dont have Wright and when Harvey is not pitching this team really sucks.

Lets look at the Mets upcoming schedule:
They go on the road for a while..

3 @ AZ
3 @ LAD
4 @ SD
1 vs Twins
2 vs BRAVES
3 vs Tigers

Not sure what I'll do with Twins game but there are 15 other games and I see the Mets losing many of them. Very tough
stretch of games and don't think the Padres series will be easy. SD could easily get 3 out of 4.

AZ, LAD, ATL and DET will be the meat of this fade.. Mets will likely lose 75% of those games.

This should be a good fade.
 
Last one is the Phillies..

philadelphia-phillies.jpg



This is my least favorite of the 5, but I still think profit will be made. Likely small but something will be. It will be a short fade too.
Phillies terrible on road 23-36

Schedule is

3 @ Wash
3 @ ATL
3 vs LAD

9 games, 3 series.

I'm hoping for 3-6, thats all.
 
Wagers for today:

0.3* risked on open parlay with one spot left
AZ ML -200 (METS FADE)
one open spot

0.2* AZ RL +115 (METS FADE)

0.25* ML Parlay (+124)
STL/AZ (Cubs and Mets fade mix)

0.25* risked open parlay with one spot open
STL ML -210 (CUBS FADE)
one spot open

0.15* STL RL +105 (CUBS FADE)

0.10* Parlay (+119)
STL/ATL

0.25* O's -126 (GIANTS FADE)
0.15* O's RL +130 (GIANTS FADE)

0.3* Wash -1 -117 (PHILLIES FADE)

0.25* Seattle -124 (BREWERS FADE)
 
gynecologist said:
Team #4

Mets

57400341208539.jpg


This will pretty much be the lineup you will be seeing from the Mets
1. Eric Young (S) LF
2. Daniel Murphy (L) 2B
3. Marlon Byrd (R) RF
4. Ike Davis (L) 1B
5. Juan Lagares (R) CF
6. Wilmer Flores (R) 3B
7. John Buck (R) C
8. Omar Quintanilla (L) SS
9. Jenrry Mejia (R) P


Not very good is it..


Good timing on this fade because the Mets are currently on a 3 game winning streak. But keep in mind David Wright
wont be coming back for a while. Hes by far the best player on the team.

Obviously when Harvey starts I will shy away but the other times should be money in the bank.

Other starters are all shaky
Hafner shaky
Wheeler shaky
Niese back from DL soon shaky
Gee also inconsistent. (although I kind of like him)

When the Mets dont have Wright and when Harvey is not pitching this team really sucks.

Lets look at the Mets upcoming schedule:
They go on the road for a while..

3 @ AZ
3 @ LAD
4 @ SD
1 vs Twins
2 vs BRAVES
3 vs Tigers

Not sure what I'll do with Twins game but there are 15 other games and I see the Mets losing many of them. Very tough
stretch of games and don't think the Padres series will be easy. SD could easily get 3 out of 4.

AZ, LAD, ATL and DET will be the meat of this fade.. Mets will likely lose 75% of those games.

This should be a good fade.
Click to expand...

Love fading teams like this, great work Gyno. I thought I'd throw my 2 cents in on the Mets. I actually think the Mets are going to be a bit undervalued as books will downwardly adjust after Wright's injury. I've watched them pretty closely lately, and a few observations stick out.

1. Ike Davis is heating up. He may not be hitting for power yet, but he's getting on base, and maybe most importantly not striking out anymore. I think he's primed to go on a tear, and we all know he is a streaky hitter.

2. Gee has been really consistent lately. He knows "how to pitch", and as long as Collins manages him correctly (i.e. pulls him at 100 pitches), he should be a solid back end of the rotation pitcher.

3. The Mets outfield defense is one of the best in the league. It's weird to say that after it was one of the worst at the beginning of the year. But, Lagares is a gold glove caliber center fielder, and has a ton of outfield assists. Byrd (though slumping) had made some great plays in right. Eric Young, who has made a HUGE difference at the leadoff spot, has also made some great catches in left.

4. Wilmer Flores is an X factor. The guy was tearing up AAA, and shown flashes already of his productive bat. It's true that the Mets will lose ALOT defensively with him at third, but his bat hopefully will provide some pop in the lineup.

5. Mejia is finally putting it together. He has looked great since being called up a few weeks ago. He has very good stuff, and looks like a different pitcher now.

All that said, there should be great spots to fade the Mets as well. Hefner has looked terrible, and the bullpen is always an adventure (especially with Parnell out now). Ill be keeping tabs on your plays. Good Luck!
 
Look at the Mets schedule.. Its awfully tough.

I see and agree with most of what you said but I still don't think that will be enough for them to win games.
 
Since the schedule is tough shouldn't the prices be high on the favored team? I still don't understand your fade of bad teams everyone knows are bad against good teams everyone knows are good. Seems like a public square bet that you're destined to lose over time
 
orangemonk said:
Since the schedule is tough shouldn't the prices be high on the favored team? I still don't understand your fade of bad teams everyone knows are bad against good teams everyone knows are good. Seems like a public square bet that you're destined to lose over time
Click to expand...

He has a history of winning with these fades. Fade the fade if u think this is a long term losing strategy but Gyno seems to pick his spots pretty well for them. GL
 
I'm not hating I'm just looking for clarification because common sense says something like this is -EV
 
orangemonk said:
Since the schedule is tough shouldn't the prices be high on the favored team? I still don't understand your fade of bad teams everyone knows are bad against good teams everyone knows are good. Seems like a public square bet that you're destined to lose over time
Click to expand...

^^^ 7 straight years of baseball success and I still have to deal with people like this ^^^


2013 fades:
Marlins Fade Mid May 7-2 +1.74 units
Astros fade: 34-16 +2.98 units
Mets Fade 3-4-1 +0.48 units
Marlins mid june fade: 2-4-1 -0.88 units
White Sox fade: 23-8 +3.71 units


Have documented success since 2007:
PREVIOUS RESULTS:

2007 Season: Dodgers 9-4 +7.02
2007 Season: Giants 12-6 +7.91
2007 Season: Red Sox 4-2 +0.00
2007 Season: Mets 1-1 -0.46

2008 Season: Giants 7-6 +2.00
2008 Season: Red Sox 6-2 +3.65 Units
2008 season: O's: 3-5 -9.07 Units
2008 season: Rays: 6-3 +3.12 Units
2008 season Reds: 14-12 +1.18 Units
2008 season Red Sox :5-2 +3.79 Units
2008 season Mariners: 5-2 +3.43 Units
2008 season Royals: 9-3 +4.72 Units
2008 season Indians: 0-6 -9.49 Units
2008 season Pirates: 9-1 +7.24 Units
2009 season Padres: 1-3 -1.01 Units
2009 Pirates 12-12 +0.23 units

2012 Seattle 8-3 +2.23 units
2012 Mets: 10-2 +2.12 units
2012 Reds: 8-3 +1.74 units


Did a little research.. I look for 2010 and 2011, couldn't find anything. I think those were only posted at this forum and they are lost.

Feel free to post those results if you can find them.


orangemonk, can you direct me to your baseball thread?
 
orangemonk said:
I'm not hating I'm just looking for clarification because common sense says something like this is -EV
Click to expand...

betting against bad teams with tough upcoming schedules is negative EV? I strongly beg to differ.

This is the third time you've come into one of these threads and challenged me, the first two times I ended up profiting.. If this time I happen to lose, you will come in and say "hey look at me, I was right", if I happen to win you will do the same thing you did the previous two times and say nothing.

Third time you've brought negativity into my thread, not cool.
 
KingKapper said:
Look back at his history. He varies plays, adds parlays and plays series. He isn't blindly betting a unit per game, it is a lot more calculated.
Click to expand...


Exactly, making money with gambling is not all about picking winners.. Its also how to bet.

My approach is I pretty much take a series to series approach. I try to profit series by series and then move on. There will be no crazy chasing or betting 100 units cause I've lost 5 in a row. Its all very methodical.
 
Dude you still haven't explained yourself. You keep just saying it works, which apparently it does, but I'm curious to as what you are doing/seeing differently that makes it profitable when a regular square is going to lose money betting favorites against bad teams. You've clearly found the right approach but what makes it the right approach? Or do you not know?
 
Square betting 101 is taking a great team against a bad team. You're basically doing this, but you've found a way to profit. I'm curious how. That's all I'm asking, I'm not being negative about it at all, it just doesn't make sense to work on paper. GL
 
orangemonk said:
Dude you still haven't explained yourself. You keep just saying it works, which apparently it does, but I'm curious to as what you are doing/seeing differently that makes it profitable when a regular square is going to lose money betting favorites against bad teams. You've clearly found the right approach but what makes it the right approach? Or do you not know?
Click to expand...


I haven't? I made 5 different writeups explaining why I'm fading these teams.
 
I get the write up. This team is bad. They've been bad for 15 games. They're playing some good teams now, so I'm going to fade them. It seems like books would be adjusted since the public & books already realize it's bad team vs. good team, and in theory, since smaller, less public teams tend to be more profitable, it seems like your system wouldn't work. I get that you've made it work. It just doesn't make sense to me how since it seems very square. But good job and good luck. we can end discussion here, sorry if I offended, I'm simply curious.
 
Its not as simple as that.. For example right when I got off the White Sox they won 3 straight. I ended up betting them in every game.

Betting with 15 games in mind and betting with 1 game in mind is very different. There are a lot of things that go into my selection. Baseball is very streaky and losing
can become contagious. I'm looking for the bad run, I'm looking for the stretch where a team loses 8 out of 10.

I don't only bet faves, if you look at my regular plays I wager on a lot of dogs. I'm completely aware that even the bad teams win 40% of their games.
 
gynecologist said:
Its not as simple as that.. For example right when I got off the White Sox they won 3 straight. I ended up betting them in every game.

Betting with 15 games in mind and betting with 1 game in mind is very different. There are a lot of things that go into my selection. Baseball is very streaky and losing
can become contagious. I'm looking for the bad run, I'm looking for the stretch where a team loses 8 out of 10.

I don't only bet faves, if you look at my regular plays I wager on a lot of dogs. I'm completely aware that even the bad teams win 40% of their games.
Click to expand...
:shake: Interesting. Ty and again GL
 
0.2* ML parlay (+145)
STL/AZ

0.2* STL RL +110

0.1* ML PARLAY +152
STL/SEAclosing 0.3* open parlay with az paying +148

0.3* Wash +108 (PHILS)

0.3* Balt -124 (SF)

0.25* Sea -1 -114 (MILW)
 
bad start but one good day and were back in action. Going to watch this closely and may bail out of one or two of these..

The STL series is the one that has me the most pissed off.


0.4* STL -1 -116

C'mon Cards, don't let the Cubs beat you 3 times in a row.
 
0.2* ML PARLAY +127
WASH/SEA


0.25* SEA FF -.5 -130


0.1* WASH RL -110


0.25* Balt +108


No wager on AZ. Think the line is too high.
 
petertjm said:
what a diaster the last 2 days have been, I drank the koolaid, good luck to you in the future Pete
Click to expand...

Guess you were the jinx...

Swept card today..

Why are the forums like this...?

Think I'm done with ctg
 
Yes, i must be the jinx, the only problem is i folowed you today also, i figured your to good to keep having horribe days. By my calculations you are still down about 22 units for the last 3 days. I wish all the best for you , and veryy srry if you took my comment the wrong way. It is my problem if i follow and lose, and like i said i drank the koolaid, good luck to you and nothing but the best of luck to you.
 
posting plays is suppose to fun. I'm having a really good year and "two" thats right "two" bad days and I hear negative shit?

I hear negative shit even before this weekend started..
 
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